As promised, here are my quick thoughts on the $400,000 Gotham Stakes (gr. III), to be run later this afternoon at Aqueduct.
Gotham Stakes (gr. III)
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Aqueduct inner dirt track
Entries:
1 My Adonis
2 Stealcase
3 Finnegans Wake
4 Pretension
5 Maan
6 Dan and Sheila
7 Suns Out Guns Out
8 Raconteur
9 King and Crusader
10 Side Road
11 Done Talking
12 Hansen
13 Tiger Walk
Obviously, the heavy favorite is going to be Hansen, the 2011 juvenile champion and winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). Although he did lose his first start of 2012, finishing a distant second to Algorithms in Gulfstream's Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), he had plenty of excuses that day and should be much sharper this time around.
My Adonis, third in the Holy Bull Stakes and just a half-length behind Hansen, will probably be sent off as the second choice. What kind of running style he will employ is another question. In the Holy Bull, he was 20 lengths off of the lead with just a half-mile to go, yet in his previous races, he had shown a good deal of early speed and was usually right up close to the lead. While I certainly can see this colt winning impressively today, he must overcome breaking from gate one, and may simply be not quite in the same classs at this time as Hansen.
The remaining runners appear to be very evenly matched, and it's very difficult to say who will perform the best. Stealcase broke his maiden last time out of Windsurfer, who returned to break his own maiden in impressive fashion at Gulfstream Park. Finnegans Wake finished fourth last time out to to the highly regarded Exothermic, and the runner-up that day, News Pending, returned to finish second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). Pretension has good form here over the Aqueduct inner track, having won the Sweet Envoy Stakes last time out in sharp fashion. Maan in undefeated in two starts, and while he will be making his first start beyond 6-1/2 furlongs, he does have a win over an off track, which could be useful seeing that the Aqueduct main track is currently labeled "good".
Dan and Sheila is an intriguing contender, for the Todd Pletcher-trainee made up a lot of ground last time out in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) to finish fourth, but the winner that day returned to finish a badly beaten last in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). Suns Out Guns Out has failed to win in four starts, but was beaten only three-quarters of a length last time out and has been facing some good horses. Raconteur, Dan and Sheila's stablemate, lost his first five starts but has since won two straight here at Aqueduct. Kind and Crusader won the Jimmy Winkfieled Stakes last time out here at Aqueduct, and while he does have the early speed to be a contender, he may be better at shorter distances. Side Road, owned by Darley Stable, broke his maiden by four last time out and looks like a promising young runner. Done Talking is making his 2012 debut, but finished a good fourth here at Aqueduct last November in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II), beaten just one length. Last of all is Tiger Walk, who won two straight races at Laurel Park before shipping to Aqueduct for the Withers Stakes (gr. III), where he closed mildly to finish third.
It's a very difficult race to handicap, but here are my selections:
1 Hansen
2 Done Talking
3 My Adonis
4 Tiger Walk
And here are J.R.'s picks:
1 Stealcase
2 Hansen
3 My Adonis
4 Suns Out Guns Out
This race should give us a good idea of just what kind of a horse Hansen is. Should he show possible distance limitations, as he did in the Holy Bull, it could raise serious questions about the colt's ability to win a race like the Kentucky Derby. However, should he draw away impressively to win by daylight, it would reaffirm that the colt is a serious contender for the Derby despite his front-running style.
It should be a great race. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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