Friday, March 16, 2012

TRIPLE CROWN UPDATE -- March 16th, 2012

There are a trio of allowance races across the country that every Triple Crown fan should have their eyes on, for entered in these three races are a number of highly promising colts that could make some noise further down the road.

To begin, there is the third race of the day at Gulfstream Park, a one-mile main track allowance race for three-year-olds. While only five horses have been entered, two of them are graded stakes winners making their first starts of the year -- Gemologist and Currency Swap. Gemologist, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, went undefeated in three starts as a juvenile, including an impressive victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs. Originally scheduled to run in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) tomorrow at Oaklawn, Gemologist was instead entered in this easier allowance race. He's been training very well for his comeback, but whether or not he is sharp enough to win first time back is, of course, a major question.

On the other hand, the only colt expected to give Gemologist as run for his money, Currency Swap, is in the same back. Unraced since winning the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last summer at Saratoga, Currency Swap is actually entering this race off of an even longer layoff than Gemologist. Nevertheless, he has been training well, and the colt he narrowly defeated in the Hopeful, Trinniberg, came back to win the Swale Stakes (gr. II) last week in dominating fashion.

Out at Santa Anita Park, the fourth race on the card is an intriguing seven-furlong allowance race, featuring a number of talented competitors such as Consulado and Hierro. The first-mentioned colt broke his maiden impressively by about seven lengths, then came back to finish a strong second to the highly-regarded Fed Biz in a one-mile allowance race. Seven furlongs appears, at this point, to be his best distance, so he should prove tough to beat today.

As for Hierro, he broke his maiden impressively in his third start before stepping up into stakes company, where he finished fifth and last in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) behind Out of Bounds and Secret Circle, among others. Seeing that his lone win came at seven furlongs, he should appreciate the distance of today's race and should be a contender in the stretch.

You should also keep your eyes on the Bob Baffert-trained duo of Night Tide and Brigand. Night Tide looked like a promising juvenile last year, but hasn't raced since finishing fifth in the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II) last August. Brigand is entering off of a sixth-place finish in the Baffle Stakes over the Santa Anita turf course, his first start since finishing fourth in the above-mentioned Best Pal Stakes.

Finally, at Oaklawn Park, there is a 1 1/16th miles allowance race that bears serious watching, for a number of nice colts are entered. Eleven colts had originally been entered, but following the scratch of four runners, seven will head to post. Explain is the morning line favorite, based off of a ten-length victory in a maiden claiming race last time out, in which he turned in a very fast final time while winning in good fashion. Z Rockstar should also be a major contender, as he is coming off of a sixth-place finish in the second division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), in which he was beaten by the highly talented Secret Circle.

Another colt to keep an eye on is Kid Sidney, who broke his maiden first time out by a head at the same distance as today's race. This will be the second start of the year, so he should be ever sharper this time around. He could be a nice one.

-Keelerman

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