San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)
One Mile and a Sixteenth on the Santa Anita dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Blingo | Mike Smith |
| 2 | Bodemeister | Rafael Bejarano |
| 3 | American Act | Martin Pedroza |
| 4 | Midnight Transfer | Victor Espinonez |
| 5 | Groovin' Solo | Alonso Quinonez |
| 6 | Liaison | Martin Garcia |
| 7 | Creative Cause | Joel Rosario |
| 8 | Rousing Sermon | Joe Talamo |
| 9 | Tiz Point | Garrett Gomez |
| 10 | Empire Way | Mario Gutierrez |
The morning line favorite at 5-2 is Creative Cause, one of leading juveniles of 2011 after victories in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and Best Pal Stakes (gr. III). A well-bred son of Giant's Causeway, the colt finished third in his 2012 debut, beaten just a length in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) going seven furlongs, a distance likely too short for him. Since this will be his second start off a layoff, I expect a much stronger performance, and the added distance should only help.
Bodemeister is also going to be well-bet, and it actually wouldn't surprise me if he is sent off as the favorite. The highly impressive son of Empire Maker finished second in his debut to fellow San Felipe contender American Act, but came back strongly in his second start to break his maiden by 9 1/4 lengths while running a mile in 1:34.45. Trained by Bob Baffert, expect this colt to go straight to the early lead -- but don't expect him to fold in the stretch. He may not win, but I'm pretty confident that this colt is going to be a major contender here today.
Then there are the three 6-1 shots, namely, Midnight Transfer, Liaison, and Empire Way. Midnight Transfer has shown a great deal of talent sprinting, breaking his maiden by 4 3/4 lengths before coming right back and winning the San Pedro Stakes over Drill, who came back to win the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II). He's never raced beyond 6-1/2 furlongs, but the talent is clearly there, and if Midnight Transfer can translate his one-turn success around two turns, then he will be a major contender for the win in this spot. His sire, Hard Spun, was good enough to finish second in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) going ten furlongs, so I wouldn't count this colt out.
Liaison, Bodemeister's stablemate from the barn of Bob Baffert, showed terrific form as a juvenile, winning the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Real Quiet Stakes en route to three victories in four starts. However, his three-year-old debut was very disappointing, for he seemed to be on his way to an off-the-board finish before clipping heels and dumping his rider. Baffert is changing strategy today, removing the colt's blinkers and putting in some workouts designed to help the colt relax early. If these changes are successful, expect to see Liaison closing strongly in the stretch under Martin Garcia.
I've had my eye Empire Way even before he raced for the first time, for the well-bred colt is a full brother to the 2011 Eclipse champion three-year-old filly Royal Delta. So far, he hasn't displayed the same level of talent as his champion sibling, but there's no denying that this colt is something special. After breaking his maiden in good fashion, he finished sixth and fifth, respectively, in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) and CashCall Futurity (gr. I). But his best performance came last time out in his 2012 debut, when he finished a strong second to runaway winner I'll Have Another in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II). He did get a perfect trip, but it's worth noting that the improved effort came in his first start on dirt. In addition, seeing that Royal Delta was a late-maturing type, it's entirely possible that we haven't seen anywhere near the best from this colt, and I'm excited to see how he performs today.
Rousing Sermon has a successful career so far, winning the California Cup Juvenile Stakes, in addition to finishing second in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Real Quiet Stakes behind Liaison. However, like Liaison, he was very disappointing in his three-year-old debut, running fourth in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes without ever seriously threatening. He's certainly capable of running better in his second start of the year, but he'll have to if he is going to be beat the favorites. A quick pace would help this late-running colt.
American Act, 8-1 on the morning line, broke his maiden third time out while defeating Bodemeister, then returned to be beaten a nose in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) while finishing ahead of Creative Cause. His best performances have come when racing on the front end, so he's going to have to avoid getting into a speed duel with Bodemeister, but I wouldn't be surprised if he outruns his odds and remains in contention for the win all the way to the wire.
One colt that I really think could be something special is Blingo, racing for the same connections as the 2010 Horse of the Year, Zenyatta. Blingo has only made two starts to date, breaking his maiden first time out going a mile on turf before finishing sixth, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths, in the Cash Call Futurity (gr. I). He's never raced on dirt before, and this will be his first start of the year, but if he takes to the dirt, this colt can be a major factor here.
This brings us to the longshots, Groovin' Solo and Tiz Point. The first-mentioned colt broke his maiden in his fourth start, defeating -- among others -- Castaway, who has since returned to win a division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III). Groovin' Solo's latest start came in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), where he finished a good third before being disqualified to seventh for causing Liaison to clip heels and lose his rider. His blinkers are coming off today, and he's turned in a pair of bullet works since then, so I'm actually expecting a good effort from this colt.
Tiz Point is coming off of a victory in a one-mile allowance race on the turf, but he has never raced on dirt and his lone stakes attempt yielded a fifth-of-six finish in the Real Quiet Stakes behind Liaison and Rousing Sermon. He's bred to succeed on dirt, being by Tiznow out of a Storm Bird mare, but this Richard Mandella-trainee figures to be one of the longest shots in this race and will have to show drastic improvement in order to defeat the likes of the other colts.
I really have no idea who is going to win this race -- it's one of those races that are more fun to watch than to try to handicap -- but as it is a part of the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest between J.R. and I, here are our selections:
Keelerman
1 Creative Cause
2 Bodemeister
3 Empire Way
4 American Act
J.R.
1 Liaison
2 Midnight Transfer
3 Creative Cause
4 Groovin' Solo
Other Races of Note
At Aqueduct on Saturday . . .
Race 4: The $150,000 Cicada Stakes (gr. III), a six-furlong stakes race for three-year-old fillies, may not have drawn a large field, but there is certainly a great deal of talent among the five runners. The deserving favorite is Agave Kiss, a daughter of Lion Heart that is undefeated in three starts, including a dominating victory in the Ruthless Stakes here at Aqueduct back in January. I'm pretty confident that she will bring her record to a perfect 4-for-4 later this afternoon.
Race 9: The Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes, a six-furlong event for three-year-olds, has drawn a promising field of seven led by Ancient Rome, Hardened Wildcat, and How Do I Win. Ancient Rome won the Spectacular Bid Stakes at this distance last December at Gulfstream Park, but hasn't raced since a tenth-place finish in the Gulfstream Park Derby on the first day of 2012. Hardened Wildcat has won two straight at this distance, but is stepping up in class. How Do I Win is coming off of a pair of fourth-place efforts in the Count Fleet Stakes and Withers Stakes (gr. III), a pair of route races at Aqueduct, and should appreciate the shorter distance of today's race. However, the colt I really like is is Christopher's Joy, who is perfect in two starts and has shown a great deal of talent thus far. I have the suspicion that this colt may be better than his stablemate Ancient Rome.
At Gulfstream Park on Saturday . . .
Race 10: I'm really looking forward to the $150,000 Swale Stakes (gr. III) this afternoon, a prestigious seven-furlong sprint event for three-year-olds. A field of ten has been drawn, led by Ever So Lucky and Motor City. The first-mentioned colt has not raced since finishing a strong second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last November at Churchill Downs, due in part to various minor issues such as bone bruises, off tracks, and such. I don't really expect him to be at his best in his first start of the year, but he can probably win this race on talent alone, so expect him to at least turn in a good effort. Motor City won the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill last October, but hasn't raced since then. His workouts haven't been all that spectacular, so it won't surprise me if he is a bit short this afternoon, but like Ever So Lucky, he is talented enough to be a contender for the win anyway. Personally, I like Musical Flair, Seve, and Good Morning Diva, the latter colt especially.
Here are my selections:
1 Good Morning Diva
2 Seve
3 Motor City
4 Ever So Lucky
And here are J.R.'s:
1 Seve
2 Quick Wit
3 Ever So Lucky
4 Musical Flair
At Oaklawn on Saturday . . .
Race 7: The 1 1/16th miles Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) for three-year-old fillies has drawn a strong field of eight, but there's no doubt that all eyes will be on the 4-5 morning line favorite On Fire Baby. The highly promising filly won the Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II) and the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) last fall at Churchill Downs, and finished a close third against colts in the the Smarty Jones Stakes, her first start of 2012. She'll be racing on Lasix for the first time today, which could certainly improve her performance, and if she runs like I think she will, we may be about to witness the coronation of the 2012 champion sophomore filly.
Race 8: This six-furlong maiden special weight has drawn a strong field of eight, but the colt I will be specifically watching is Whinston, a promising young colt from the barn of Steve Asmussen that will be making his first start since finishing second to Laurie's Rocket in a similar maiden race last July at Churchill Downs. Sark is another logical contender, based off of a strong second-place effort in a maiden race last time out.
At Santa Anita on Saturday . . .
Race 2: A one-mile turf maiden special weight for three-year-olds, this race is especially interesting because one of the runners is Brother Francis, the third-place finisher in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) -- despite the fact that, obviously, he is still a maiden. This will be his first start since then, but he's probably best on class alone and should win this without too much trouble.
Race 7: I've got my eye on a pair of runners in this 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies, those two being Splendid Fortune and My Selection. Both are trained by Bob Baffert, and both have been training exceptionally well. Neither have raced before, but I'm looking forward to seeing how they perform. I think they could be a nice pair.
At Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday . . .
Race 11: One of the biggest races scheduled to be run this weekend, the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) has drawn a large but mostly unproven field of twelve, although one of the runners, Take Charge Indy, is scheduled to scratch. The favorite will probably be Spring Hill Farm, who has won both of his starts for trainer Todd Pletcher in impressive fashion. He's taking a big step up in class, and the front-running colt may have difficulty getting to the lead from gate nine, but he should have a good chance at winning this race. Other obvious contenders are Battle Hardened, who won the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at this track last month, and Prospective, runner-up in that race despite a very wide trip. A couple of longer shots that I will be keeping my eye on are Golden Ticket, who broke his maiden impressively last time out; Ravelo's Boy, fourth in the Sam F. Davis; Cozzetti, who has shown talent for trainer Dale Romans but who has never really put it all together to secure a major victory; and Tell All You Know, who has won two straight including an impressive maiden victory.
My selections are:
1 Golden Ticket
2 Prospective
3 Spring Hill Farm
4 Battle Hardened
And J.R.'s picks are:
1 Cajun Charlie
2 Cozzetti
3 Prospective
4 Battle Hardened
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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