(I'm just a bit late getting this posted, but better late than never! Enjoy!)
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He's already back on the work tab, breezing five furlongs in a sharp :59 4/5 just ten days after his victory in the San Felipe. It's obvious that this colt is doing really, really well right now, and he should be rough to beat in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) next month. He'll probably have one more breeze between now and then.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
Turned in his final workout for the Florida Derby (gr. I) this morning at Palm Meadows, going a half-mile in a moderate :49.10. It was an excellent final breeze that should set him up well for the race, without getting him too sharp too soon. After all, we don't want him peaking in the Florida Derby rather than the Kentucky Derby.
3. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
On March 18th, he breezed for the second time since winning the Risen Star, going five furlongs in a solid 1:01.22. He's expected to breeze once more prior to the Florida Derby, where he will have the difficult task of trying to defeat Union Rags. How well he fares against the Derby favorite will determine just how big a contender he will be on the first Saturday in May. Of course, if he defeats the Derby favorite, then it's entirely possible that this colt may take over that title and head to Churchill as the colt to beat.
4. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
On March 20th, he breezed for the first time since his second-place finish in the Risen Star, turning in a bullet five-furlong work in :59 2/5. Let us recall that his two breezes leading up to the Risen Star were six furlongs in 1:12 3/5 and five furlongs in 1:00 1/5. It would appear as though this colt is really starting to get good now and looms as a solid favorite for the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) on April 1st.
5. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
His final Derby prep is scheduled to come in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) on April 7th, where he will face -- among others -- Alpha, My Adonis, and Our Entourage. It should be an excellent spot to pick up some extra graded earnings, without having to face the likes of Union Rags or Hansen, and should set him up perfectly for the first Saturday in May.
6. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
I'm moving him up two spots for no other reason than the fact that I really, really like this colt and felt that position eight was simply too low. As I have mentioned before, his Palm Beach performance was very good indeed, and the Blue Grass Stakes should be an excellent spot to get some fitness into him and hone his late run to perfection. Not a lot of people have been mentioning him as a major Derby contender, but I think he could be one of the big ones on May 5th.
7. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
It turns out that he's going to skip the Wood Memorial and instead await the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), giving him one more week to prepare while also keeping him in Kentucky. He breezed for the first time since the Gotham this morning at the Churchill Training track, going an easy five-eighths in 1:01 1/5. Also, I'm not sure this really means anything, but it is worth noting that a horse he beat soundly in the Gotham, Raconteur, returned to win the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park last weekend.
8. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Obviously, defeating Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby is not going to be an easy task, but this colt has been training beautifully in preparation for the task, most recently breezing seven furlongs in 1:26 1/5. He'll have to avoid getting into a speed duel on the front end, but with fellow Californian front-runner Bodemeister possibly heading to the Arkansas Derby, that may not be all that difficult.
9. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
As I mentioned above, the Arkansas Derby has been mentioned as a possible goal for this colt, rather than facing Creative Cause again in the Santa Anita Derby. I think it could be a very good move, for the colt would get a chance to showcase his speed on a track that isn't quite as favoring toward front runners as Santa Anita is, thus giving us a better idea of just how talented Bodemeister may be.
10. Castaway (Street Sense - Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's drawn the rail in the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III), where he is the 2-1 favorite on the morning line. I really like this race as a final prep for this colt, for he will be able to get another start under his belt without having to face Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby or stablemates Secret Circle and Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby. Plus, you have to factor in the success of the Sunland Derby in recent years -- 2009 fourth-place finish Mine That Bird famously won the Kentucky Derby, and 2011 third-place finisher Ruler On Ice went on to take the Belmont Stakes. So, as long as Castaway is finishing strongly here on Sunday, I think he could end up being a major Derby contender.
11. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
After numerous decision changes, it now sounds as though this colt will indeed make his final start prior to the Derby in the Wood Memorial (gr. I), where he may end up going off as the favorite. He breezed five furlongs this morning in 1:00.99 at Palm Meadows.
12. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
This morning, he turned in what will likely be his final breeze prior to the Florida Derby, going five furlongs in 1:01.57, which was actually one of the faster breezes of the day. Facing Union Rags and El Padrino is certainly not the easiest thing to do, but I think he could actually be right with them at the finish, and so long as he's coming on strong late and get's a real hard race into him, it should set him up well for the Kentucky Derby.
13. Prospective (Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) Trained by Mark Casse
I've moved him up several spots for several reasons, one of them being that he is already at Churchill Downs getting acclimatized to the track. Obviously, the fact that he ran thirteenth and last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) at Churchill Downs last year is a bit worrisome, but it was really too bad a performance to be believed, and I'm not going to hold it against him.
14. My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) Trained by Kelly Breen
With Hansen skipping the Wood Memorial, this colt's chances just got a whole lot better. Beaten three lengths by Hansen in the Gotham while never really threatening for the win, My Adonis could stamp himself as one of the major Derby contenders if he runs to his abilities in the Wood. Breezed five furlongs in 1:00.75 at Belmont Park yesterday, signaling that he is going to be ready.
15. Optimizer (English Channel - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Optimizer
He was really running strong at the finish of the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), closing rapidly into Secret Circle's lead and looming a potential win threat before falling short. Obviously, his late run was somewhat enhanced by the fact that the leaders were crawling home, and I am a little worried about the fact that his performance was hugely better than any other he has turned in to date (was it a fluke?), but visually he looked fantastic and I can't wait to see how he does in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) next month.
16. News Pending (Harlan's Holiday - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan) Trained by Dale Romans
All questions as to his abilities will likely be answered next Sunday when he takes on Union Rags, El Padrino, and Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby. We know this colt is talented, and we know he's training as well as anyone else, but that elusive class question remains to be answered. Is he good enough to even challenge the favorites for the victory? I think so, but we won't know for sure until March 31st. Regardless, it should be a great race.
17. Holy Candy (Candy Ride - Spooky Minister, by Deputy Minister) Trained by John Sadler
I have mentioned this colt numerous times over the last few months, back when he was still a maiden, waiting for the day that he would finally figure things out and win his first race. That day happened to be today, as the colt flew to a hugely impressive victory in maiden special weight earlier this afternoon at Santa Anita. Could he possibly join the Derby trail, even at this late date?
18. Secret Circle (Eddington - Ragtime Hope, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Bob Baffert
To be perfectly honest, I don't know what to think of this colt. He just keeps on winning these big races that are supposed to be too long for him. First the Southwest, and now the Rebel. On one hand, this should come as no surprise, for his pedigree says he should relish a mile and a quarter. Nevertheless he's got the blazing speed of a sprinter and always appears to be tiring badly at the finish of all of his races, drifting in and out while turning in slow final fractions. On the other hand, these traits could be attributed to a colt that is stalling when he strikes the front -- weaving and slowing down simply because he has lost his focus. If this is the case, then it's possible that we have been wrong about this colt all along. If this is the case, then it's possible that he can go a mile and a quarter if given a target to run at. We'll see.
19. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
The big question with this colt is simply where will he run next? His trainer has already ruled out the Santa Anita Derby, and seeing that he hasn't breezed since his ninth-place finish in the San Felipe, it's clear that he won't be running next weekend. Personally, I think that the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) would be a good spot for him, but we'll have to see what Harrington does with him.
20. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
I'm dropping him down a lot off of his poor effort in the Rebel, simply because I really expected him to be sharper then that. I'm not quite sure what happened, because he never even really got into contention. Perhaps some of his dullness can be attributed to the fact that it was his first start in four months, but I feel he was beaten too soundly for it to have been strictly an issue of fitness. Maybe it was just one of those flukey performances that will never be explained. If that is the case, then he should show more in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) next month.
21. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
I decided to throw this colt on at the last minute in case he runs well enough in the upcoming Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) to warrant a start in the Kentucky Derby. Racing for the same connections as last year's Derby winner Animal Kingdom, this colt's two starts in American have been highly impressive, especially his strong maiden victory last time out. Yes, he's not as far along as some of the other Derby contenders, but then again, where was Animal Kingdom at this time last year?
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Cigar Street
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Exothermic
Golden Ticket
Heavy Breathing
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Motor City
Mr. Prankster
Najjaar
Paynter
Reckless Jerry
Rousing Sermon
Scatman
Shared Property
Stirred Up
Z Dager
-Keelerman
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