Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
Nine Furlongs on the Turfway Park synthetic track
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Russian Greek | Corey Nakatani |
| 2 | Red Jack | Martin Pedroza |
| 3 | Heavy Breathing | Javier Castellano |
| 4 | Went the Day Well | John Velazquez |
| 5 | Holiday Promise | Junior Alvarado |
| 6 | All Squared Away | Luis Contreras |
| 7 | Ill Conceived | Stewart Elliott |
| 8 | Coach Royal | Fernando Jara |
| 9 | Tizanexpense | Victor Lebron |
| 10 | Mr. Prankster | Rosie Napravnik |
| 11 | Stealcase | Rajiv Maragh |
| 12 | Handsome Mike | Joel Rosario |
The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Heavy Breathing, an up-and-coming young runner from the barn of Todd Pletcher. The son of Giant's Causeway is undefeated in two starts, having broken his maiden impressively at Gulfstream before winning a nine-furlong allowance race, also at Gulfstream. The talent is clearly there, and he will be retaining the services of top jockey Javier Castellano, but this will be his first start over a synthetic track and one must wonder how well he will take to it.
If Heavy Breathing doesn't care for the track, then Went the Day Well and Handsome Mike should be right there at the finish. The first-mentioned colt, owned by Team Valor International, began his career in Europe, where he finished second in a pair of maiden races. He was then purchased by Team Valor and brought to the United States, where he finished fourth in his first start here before breaking his maiden last time out in excellent fashion going a mile and a sixteenth at Gulfstream Park. With John Velazquez in the saddle, expect this colt to get a great trip while coming from mid-pack.
As for Handsome Mike, he has been facing some of the best colts that California has to offer, finishing seventh (beaten just 2 3/4 lengths) in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), fourth in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), and third in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). It would appear as though he just isn't good enough to defeat the best colts in California, but he should find this field more suited to his ability; in fact, his Beyer speed figures pretty much tower over those of his rivals in this spot. I love the fact that Joel Rosario will be flying here from California to ride this colt. To me, that says something about this horse's ability.
Ill Conceived and Mr. Prankster, the second- and fourth-place finishers, respectively, in last month's John Battaglia Memorial Stakes here at Turfway, should also be major contenders. Ill Conceived set the pace that day before losing the lead to a quality colt in State of Play, but was actually closing the gap again at the finish and might have won if the race had been slightly longer. On the other hand, he was allowed to set a very, very slow pace that day of :49.83 and 1:14.71, which obviously left him with something in the tank for the finish.
Actually, that pace may have been the reason why Mr. Prankster wound up fourth. The promising colt has previously won the two prep races for the John Battaglia -- the Turfway Prevue Stakes and the WEBN Stakes -- in highly impressive fashion. But the late-running colt had very quick paces to chase in those races, actually three to four seconds faster than he did in the John Battaglia. Seeing that the pace should be much quicker today, I would think that Mr. Prankster will rebound in good fashion.
Russian Greek, Stealcase, and Holiday Promise are going to be longer prices, but may have just as good a chance at winning as the favorites. Russian Greek looked good earlier this year when he won the California Derby with a strong late run. However, he failed to menace in his last start, the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), where he wound up a soundly beaten fifth. But he is taking a bit of a class drop here, and seeing that he has already has a stakes victory over a synthetic track, he could be coming on strongly at the finish to secure a major piece of the purse. The addition of blinkers should also help his chances.
Stealcase has won only one of his four starts to date, and is coming off of a 10 3/4-length defeat in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), but several things make me think that he could be a major contender here. For one thing, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time -- and his trainer, Mike Casse, wins at a 25% rate under those circumstances. Furthermore, prior to the Gotham, this colt ran in a pair of potentially key maiden races. On December 24th, he finished fourth in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream behind Thunder Moccasin, Ender Knievel, and Panthro, all of whom came back to win their next starts. Then, on January 19th, Stealcase broke his maiden over a colt named Windersurfer, who also came back to win his next race. Based on these factors, as well as a few others, I really think this colt could be something special.
Holiday Promise, the other Todd Pletcher-trainee in this race, does not have the same flashy record as his stablemate, but could nevertheless be in the mix. He's only won once from five starts, that victory coming last November at Laurel Park, but he's run well enough since then to suggest that he could be a threat from off the pace. I particularly liked his fourth-place effort two starts back against subsequent stakes winner Raconteur, where he closed strongly late from off the pace to be beaten just 1 3/4 lengths in a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race.
The longshots in this field are Red Jack, All Squared Away, Coach Royal, and Tizanexpense. Red Jack, from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, has only a single victory from nine starts, most recently finishing third in a claiming race at Oaklawn Park. All Squared Away is coming off of a second-place finish in a starter allowance race, having previously finished seventh in the El Camino Real Derby. Coach Royal has never won a race, despite having raced eight times, but is coming off of a pair of half-length defeats in nine-furlong turf maiden special weights at Gulfstream Park. Seeing that he has seven route races under his belt already, there's no denying that he has the experience to be a contender here, but the bigger question is whether or not he is talented enough. As for Tizanexpense, he won a pair of races at Fair Grounds last winter, but is coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), where he was beaten eleven lengths. But to be perfectly honest, he didn't get the best of trips that day, and he could certainly be a contender here if doesn't get hung wide around the first turn.
So there you have it -- the twelve-horse Spiral Stakes, in which no horse seems to really stand out and every one of them has at least a moderate chance at hitting the board. I really have no idea who to pick, but since this is one of contest races for the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest between J.R. and I, here are our selections:
Keelerman
1 Handsome Mike
2 Went the Day Well
2 Stealcase
4 Mr. Prankster
J.R.
1 Stealcase
2 Went the Day Well
3 Ill Conceived
4 Holiday Promise
Other Races of Note
At Fair Grounds on Saturday . . .
Race 10: This six-furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds has drawn a pair of colts that broke their maidens impressively here at Fair Grounds earlier in the meet: Bourbon Courage and Macho Macho. Of the two, Bourbon Courage is probably best, seeing that he soundly defeated both Macho Macho when breaking his maiden, earning a Beyer speed figure of 103 in the process. Macho Macho has clearly improved since then, for he won his next start by 2 1/4 lengths in a highly impressive performance. A victory for either one of them could put them on the track to future success in stakes races.
At Gulfstream Park on Saturday . . .
Race 4: A 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds, this race looks like a good one indeed. A number of quality sprinters have been entered, including Right to Vote, making his first start since finishing third in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last year. He looks like a solid favorite, but local allowance runners Seve, Dangerous Trick, and Blings Express all look capable of pulling off an upset if the favorite isn't dead fit in his first start since last October. Incredicat, who broke his maiden last December at Woodbine, could also be in the mix.
At Turfway Park on Saturday . . .
Race 8: While I doubt that the one-mile Rushaway Stakes is going to turn out a Derby contender, the race has nevertheless drawn a quality field of runners led by Gung Ho, Flashy Dresser, Gold Megillah, and Dynamical. Gung Ho won the Sunday Silence Stakes on the turf as a juvenile, but hasn't raced since finishing seventh in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). Flashy Dresser broke his maiden by 6 3/4 lengths earlier this month at Gulfstream, but is taking a step up in class. Gold Megillah has proven to be a solid competitor in allowance races at Gulfstream, and Dynamical is coming off of a third-place finish in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes here at Turfway. It's hard to say who will triumph, but I've always felt that Gung Ho could be a nice one, and I will be watching to see how he does.
-Keelerman
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