Friday, March 09, 2012

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 9th, 2012

Here are my recaps of last week's major three-year-old racing action, including Hansen's dominating victory in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III). Enjoy!

Stakes Recaps

Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I)
We may have found ourselves a new Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) favorite in Eden's Moon, who looked terrific when drawing away in the Santa Anita homestretch to win the Las Virgenes by daylight. Trained by Bob Baffert, Eden's Moon obviously has a great deal of early speed, coupled with the ability to maintain it over a long distance. This could make her very difficult to beat in races up to at least nine furlongs in distance. Runner-up Reneesgotzip ran well too, but really blew her chances on the first turn when she drifted extremely wide. Seeing that she has now done that in two straight races, it appears that she has a bit of a problem with it, something that trainer Peter Miller will hopefully solve before too long.

John Battaglia Memorial Stakes
It's very difficult to say just how much of an influence this race will have on the Triple Crown trail, for a number of factors made this race very difficult to analyze. First off, the positions remained relatively unchanged throughout. That could have been due to the fact that the pace was extremely slow (they ran the opening three-quarters of a mile in 1:14.69.) Mr. Prankster, who had rallied so impressively to win the first two local preps for this race, never even threatened while finishing fourth. Give credit to State of Play, who took advantage of the situation to win by a head, but we won't really have any ideas as to the quality of these runners until they make their next starts.

Gotham Stakes (gr. III)
I thought that Hansen ran extremely well here, showing a new dimension -- rating off the lead -- en route to a decisive victory over My Adonis. Now that he has proved that he doesn't need the lead to win, he has regained a lot of the reputation and status that he lost when he finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) in his 2012 debut. The only question is whether or not Hansen has the stamina win a ten furlong race like the Derby. We'll get a better idea about that next month, when he competes in the Wood Memorial.

Other Race Recaps

http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/three-year-old-to-watch-mile-high-magic.html
The recent maiden special weight races for three-year-olds at Santa Anita are starting to get too predictable. If Bob Baffert has a runner, chances are it is going to win. He unleashed yet another highly impressive runner on Saturday when Mile High Magic drew away powerfully in the stretch of a 6-1/2 furlong maiden event to win by 5 1/4 lengths. What was so amazing was that he did this after dueling through an opening quarter in :21.74. I have the feeling that this colt will be heading to a stakes race before too long.

http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/three-year-old-to-watch-heavy-breathing.html
Of course, last Saturday wouldn't have been a day of Triple Crown prep races if Todd Pletcher hadn't won a race. Last week's Pletcher star was Heavy Breathing, who brought his record to 2-for-2 with an impressive victory in a nine-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The pace wasn't all that quick, and his final fractions weren't all that impressive, but Heavy Breathing did everything the right way and looks like a nice one.

However, as impressive as Mile High Magic and Heavy Breathing were, I believe that the best performance in a non-stakes race last week was turned in by Stirred Up, trained by -- let's guess -- Bob Baffert! Sent off as the second choice in a 1 1/16th miles maiden special weight over the Santa Anita main track, Stirred Up sat off the pace in sixth early on as Huntsville set a fairly quick pace of :22.74, :46.25, and 1:10.81. Holy Candy, the odds-on favorite at 0.40-1, took over the lead turning for home, but was soon confronted by the late-running Stirred Up, who wore down the favorite prior to the eighth pole and gamely held on to the lead through the stretch to win by a neck. Both colts struck me as extremely high-caliber runners, and I wouldn't be surprised if both of them were to make their next starts in graded stakes races.

Another impressive performance was turned in last week by Najjaar, who rallied from far off the pace to win a 1 1/16th miles allowance race at Oaklawn Park -- against older horses -- by one length. This colt has a simply breathtaking turn of foot that must be seen to be believed, and I would not be surprised at all if this colt steps into the Derby picture with a strong effort in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) next month.

The final colt I shall mention today is Went the Day Well, who broke his maiden by 1 1/4 lengths on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, edging away in the stretch of the 1 1/16th miles event to win by 1 1/4 lengths. The early pace wasn't very fast at all, but I liked his final sixteenth of :06.39. Trained by Graham Motion, Went the Day Well struck me as professional colt that will never blow his rivals away en route to a dominating victory, but a colt of high caliber nevertheless that will be one to watch out for further down the road.

-Keelerman

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