Rebel Stakes (gr. II)
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Oaklawn dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Unbridled's Note | Channing Hill |
| 2 | Scatman | Luis Quinonez |
| 3 | Cyber Secret | Robby Albarado |
| 4 | Optimizer | Jon Court |
| 5 | Jake Mo | M. Berry |
| 6 | Sabercat | Corey Nakatani |
| 7 | Secret Circle | Rafael Bejarano |
| 8 | Atigun | Terry Thompson |
| 9 | Reckless Jerry | J. S. Rocco, Jr. |
| 10 | Ring It Up | Lyndie Wade |
| 11 | Pee H Dee | Israel Ocampo |
| 12 | Najjaar | Calvin Borel |
| 13 | Adirondack King | Stewart Elliot |
The morning line favorite at 9-5 is Secret Circle, from the barn of Bob Baffert, who won the Rebel Stakes in both 2010 and 2011 with Lookin at Lucky and The Factor. Secret Circle has shown a great deal of talent in his five career starts, winning four of them, including half-length victory in the second division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), the local prep for this race. While he does have phenomenal early speed, he does seem to have just a bit of trouble carrying it over a route of ground, as witnessed by his slow final quarter in the Southwest of :25 4/5. Nevertheless, he'll have every chance to win this race and should secure an excellent trip while racing on or near the early lead.
Sabercat probably has the best chance at upsetting the favorite. From the barn of Steve Asmussen, the highly promising colt won three straight races last year to conclude his juvenile campaign, which included a breathtaking four-length victory in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III). He hasn't raced since then, but he's been training well for his three-year-old debut and figures to be a major threat from off the pace. I like that he got in a four-furlong breeze over the local strip on March 12th.
Aside from those two, the race looks pretty wide open. Najjaar is likely to receive some major support, based off of two consecutive late-running victories here at Oaklawn, in which he closed from 12 and 8 3/4 lengths off the pace to win in good fashion each time. With Calvin Borel in the saddle, this well-bred colt may not only be a contender here in the Rebel, but in the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.
Scatman and Adirondack King, the second- and third-place finishers, respectively, behind Secret Circle in the second division of the Southwest, are obviously going to be major contenders. Scatman set an excellent early pace that day, running the opening half-mile in :46 4/5, but was still game enough to hang on to second while nearly defeating Secret Circle. Adirondack King was never really a threat for victory that day, finishing 5 1/2 lengths behind Scatman, but perhaps he didn't get the best of trips while closing off the pace in the six path, and the added distance of today's race should only help his chances. Trained by John Servis, jockey Stewart Elliot will once again fly in from Pennsylvania to ride the son of Lawyer Ron in this spot.
Cyber Secret also competed in that second division of the Southwest, and did not by any means get a good trip. After forcing a quick pace while racing four-wide. he backed up to finish fifth, beaten 10 1/2 lengths. However, the son of Broken Vow had previously won a 1 1/16th miles allowance race here at Oaklawn with an excellent Beyer speed figure, signaling that he could certainly be a major contender here if he rebounds to his best form.
Atigun has shown promise throughout his career, finishing fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) behind some talented runners and winning a 1 1/16th miles allowance race here at Oaklawn on January 15th, which remains his only start this year. He's entering this race off of a two-month rest, due to a minor issue that forced him to miss the Southwest, but there's no denying that the stretch-running son of Istan has talent and could be a major contender here today if the early pace is quick enough.
A quartet of runners from the second division of the Southwest are entered here, namely Jake Mo (2nd), Reckless Jerry (3rd), Ring It Up (4th), and Unbridled's Note (9th). Of the lot, Jake Mo and Reckless Jerry appear on the surface to be the best of the lot, as they have both run consistently well this year at Oaklawn, with the latter colt have placed in both of the major local preps for this race. Ring It Up could certainly be a contender as well, for I thought he ran very well to finish fourth in the Southwest after tracking the early pace and being put to a drive well before the stretch run. But Unbridled's Note probably has the best shot at drastically improving off of his Southwest effort, for the colt broke poorly and found himself last early on. Although he did finish ninth, he was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths for second, and with a better trip today, I can see him hitting the board at a huge price.
The final two colts to discuss are Pee H Dee and Optimizer. Pee H Dee turned in the best performance of his life last time out when finishing fourth in the second division of the Southwest Stakes, although he never was a threat to the winner. He had previously won a one-mile allowance race here at Oaklawn over Z Rockstar, who returned to win a similar event here at Oaklawn yesterday afternoon. Optimizer is the longest shot on the morning line at 30-1, based off of two consecutive poor efforts in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and Smarty Jones Stakes, but has shown enough class in the past to suggest that he could at least hit the board under the right conditions.
My selections are:
1 Adirondack King
2 Secret Circle
3 Sabercat
4 Najjaar
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Cyber Secret
2 Unbridled's Note
3 Secret Circle
4 Jake Mo
Other Races of Note
At Gulfstream Park on Saturday . . .
Race 4: This one-mile, main track allowance optional claiming race has drawn a small but talented field of six, led by Stat and Scatter Joy. The first-mentioned colt finished second to Derby favorite Union Rags last year in the Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) before heading to the sidelines. He's raced once since then, finishing fourth in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race here at Gulfstream, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths despite breaking in the air at the start. A better trip should be all he needs to win. Scatter Joy has won his only start to date, a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight here at Gulfstream, which he won by 7 1/2 lengths in the sharp time of 1:16.50. He too should be a major, major contender. Also, keep your eye on Isutalkintome, who ran third in the allowance race in which Stat finished fourth, actually out-kicking Stat to finish three-quarters of a length in front of him at odds of 74-1. This will be his second start off of a lengthy layoff, so don't be surprised if he's much sharper today.
Race 8: A one-mile maiden special weight on the main track, this race has drawn a large field led by the Nick Zito-trainee Wise Guy Charlie, who finished second to the above-mentioned Scatter Joy in his only start to date. I expect this colt to run even better today, which should make him very tough to beat. Pushingonastring should also be watched, based on a fine runner-up performance to the promising Windsurfer in a 1 1/16th miles maiden race here at Gulfstream last month.
At Aqueduct on Saturday . . .
Race 2: The Broad Brush Stakes for three-year-olds has drawn a small but highly promising field of runners, including the two-time New York-bred stakes winner Swag Daddy. But the colt that I'll be watching is Street Life, who made a simply stunning late run last time out to break his maiden in breathtaking fashion. If he can repeat that late run today, he could prove very, very tough to beat. I personally feel that this colt could be something out of the ordinary. Another intriguing contender is Copy My Swagger, who is running just one week after finishing fourth in the Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes here at Aqueduct.
-Keelerman
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