KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- April 30th, 2012

Five days until the Derby . . .

ON THE WORK TAB

Churchill Downs

* Daddy Nose Best looked good this morning while breezing an easy-half mile in :49 2/5, beginning slowly before finishing up strongly in what was his fourth and final pre-Derby workout here at Churchill Downs. Perhaps his works haven't been as flashier as the ones turned in by, say, Union Rags or Bodemeister, but he is giving me the impression of being a legitimate contender that really likes Churchill Downs. Don't be surprised if he's finishing up strongly again on Saturday.

* Sabercat, stablemate of Daddy Nose Best, also looked good in his final pre-Derby work. Like Daddy Nose Best, Sabercat breezed a half-mile, but unlike his companion, Sabercat's work was completed in the quick time of :48 2/5. It was nice to see the colt get in a really serious piece of work, as his last breeze was nothing more than a maintenance work turned in just nine days after his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. Making his third start off of a lengthy layoff, Sabercat is certainly eligible to improve in the Kentucky Derby, and today's workout should help him accomplish that goal.

* As impressive as Daddy Nose Best and Sabercat's half-mile workouts were, I would have to say that Creative Cause appeared to go even better when breezing that distance a little later in the morning. According to DRF.com, he began the work with an opening quarter in :24.22 second before finishing up his final quarter in an excellent :23.21 while under some pressure to complete the work in :47.43. The officially recognized time was :47 4/5. All in all, it was an excellent workout that should keep him fit and ready for another good effort on Saturday.

* Liaison, breezing just five days after his last workout, went five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 this morning while going in company with the highly talented maiden winner Mile High Magic, who was credited with an identical time. Liaison began his workout slowly but finished up strongly, getting his final two eighths in :11 3/5 and :12 seconds. His gallop out was also very impressive. He is clearly training better here at Churchill than he did all winter at Santa Anita, so all signs seem to say that he is ready to return to form on May 5th.

* An interesting situation surrounded Mark Valeski as he headed on to the main track to breeze five furlongs this morning. Trainer Larry Jones had stated the day before that his colt was still not 100% for the Derby, and whether or not he would run depended on how well he breezed today. Well, Mark Valeski went very well early on, getting the opening three-eighths in around :35 seconds flat, but seemed to tire in the final quarter mile and didn't gallop out all that impressively. The five-furlong work was timed in 1:00 1/5. After the work, Jones still wasn't sure whether to run him or not. Here is an interesting article on the subject: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/69358/jones-non-committal-on-mark-valeski-for-derby

* Two-time graded stakes winning sprinter Trinniberg was scheduled to breeze three-eighths of a mile this morning, but a change in plans had him instead going about two furlongs in a fashion that wasn't really meant to be a workout. A truly fascinating article discussing the workout and the reasons for entering the Kentucky Derby can be found at Bloodhorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/69370/derby-hopeful-trinniberg-full-of-surprises After reading it, do you not think that Trinniberg might just have a chance?

OTHER DERBY NEWS AND TIDBITS . . .

* Racing returns to Churchill on Tuesday following a two-day break. There are ten races on the card, with all but one scheduled to be run on the main track. Jockey Calvin Borel has four mounts, including a 5-2 shot in the fourth race, while Julien Leparoux will ride five horses. Keep an eye out for track biases. There seemed to be an outside bias during the last seven races on the opening day of the meet, but that may have been due to the extremely sloppy nature of the track.

* Daddy Long Legs, winner of the UAE Derby (gr. II), is scheduled to fly to Churchill Downs on Tuesday from his home base at Ballydoyle in Ireland. As he will turn in no workouts over the Churchill main track, it will be difficult to get a feel for how he will take to the surface on Derby day. All we can do is watch his gallops and hope for the best.

* Speaking of Daddy Long Legs, many people are a bit concerned about the fact that he completely did not handle the Churchill main track last fall during the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), where he finished a twelfth. Another colt that performed poorly that day without any apparent excuse was Prospective, who finished last of thirteen. But let's take a moment to recall that the Churchill main track of the fall is not quite the same as the Churchill main track of the spring. In addition, let's recall that the Churchill main track was described as "peanut butter" during last year's Breeders' Cup, and apparently a number of horses weren't handling it particularly well. It might be best to forgot about those poor performances and pretend they never happened; instead judging Daddy Long Legs and Prospective on their previous and subsequent races.

* Not that this fact means anything, but it is interesting to note that Dullahan's winning time of 1:47.94 in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) is among the fastest renewals of the historic race. In fact, the only colts to have ever won the race in a faster time are Skip Away (1:47.29), Chief's Crown (1:47 3/5), Arts and Letters (1:47 4/5), Forward Pass (1:47 4/5), Ridan (1:47 3/5), and Round Table (1:47 2/5). That's pretty good company!

* Does anybody remember the old "within ten pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap" Derby handicapping technique? The old system advised a Derby handicapper to select a colt that had been rated, as the name implies, within ten pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap. In recent years, this method has become all but useless -- Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird, and Big Brown weren't even given a ranking -- nowhere near ten pounds of the Experimental highweight -- but who knows, it might actually be a worthwhile technique this year.

Hansen and Union Rags were the co-highweights on the 2011 Experimental Free Handicap, each recieving a rating of 126 pounds. Of the horses rated within ten pounds of them, Creative Cause (124), Liaison (120), Dullahan (119), Rousing Sermon (119), Gemologist (118), Sabercat (116), and Trinniberg (116) are all running in the Derby. Other Derby contenders that received ranking on the 2011 Experimental include Alpha (114), El Padrino (114), Take Charge Indy (113), Done Talking (112), and I'll Have Another (111). Bodemeister, Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, Mark Valeski, Prospective, and Went the Day Well were not rated.

(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S TOP TWELVE -- April 29th, 2012

(As the Derby is now just six days away, this will be my final Top Twelve of the year. Following the release of entries and post positions on Wednesday, I shall do my best to handicap the race and have my selections readied by Friday. Enjoy!)

1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He arrived at Churchill Downs yesterday afternoon and is expected to breeze tomorrow morning. So long as it's a decent breeze that gets a little extra fitness into him, it should set him up well for the Derby. It will be interesting to see what the track is like tomorrow, as it was quite muddy today and more rain is expected.

2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He looked really, really good on Saturday when he breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5 over a very muddy track while galloping out in terrific fashion. He cannot be coming into the race any better, and I may end up picking him to win the race if he draws a good post position.

3. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
I will admit that I wasn't quite sure why Patrick Byrne chose to give him his final work nine days before the race, but it's beginning to look like one of the smartest moves any trainer has made this year along the Derby trail. By working him a stiff five furlongs on April 26th, he was able to breeze his colt over a fast track -- avoiding the heavy rain that has hit Florida over the last couple of days. He ships to Churchill on Tuesday.

4. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Union Rags, he could not have looked any better in his final workout, as Bodemeister breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5 over a muddy track that he seemed to handle very well. Obviously, he's got a lot to overcome -- the Apollo Curse, for one, and to a lesser extent, his own running style -- but this may be a year in which his raw talent is able to trump everything else.

5. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
On April 28th, he turned in what was described as a "maintenance work", going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. He probably didn't need to go any faster, seeing that he won the Blue Grass Stakes just two weeks ago, but it's worth mentioning that his final breeze prior to the Blue Grass was a stiff five furlongs in :57 2/5.

6. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Wood Memorial winner breezed four furlongs in :50.39 over a muddy track this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center. On the surface, it didn't appear to be a very fast time, but it was actually the quickest breeze of the day at that distance. His training has been thrown off just a bit due to poor weather in Florida, but he didn't really need to turn in a serious breeze today and it shouldn't affect him. Like Take Charge Indy, he ships to Churchill on Tuesday.

7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
The fact that he underwent shock wave therapy on his back a few days ago had me a little concerned, but he came right back and breezed six furlongs in an excellent 1:13 4/5 on April 27th, so I'm not too worried now. He arrived at Churchill on Saturday, but he'll probably just gallop up to the Derby.

8. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He has apparently overcome the issues that modified his training schedule, for he looked terrific breezing five furlongs in a bullet :59.54 at the Belmont Park training track yesterday. He is expected to arrive at Churchill Downs sometime tomorrow, where he will gallop up to the Derby. It's looking like Rajiv Maragh, who rode him in the workout, will ride him in the Derby.

9. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
He turned in a really nice workout in company with Derby Kitten on Saturday, going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 while being asked to run inside of his workmate toward the end of the work. It's interesting to note that he has been training at the Churchill training track, rather than at Churchill Downs itself.

10. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
On Saturday, he worked five furlongs at Churchill Downs while wearing blinkers for the first time and really could not have looked much better. Breezing in company with Crimson China, he went the distance in 1:01 flat, a considerably quicker work than the ones he has recorded in the past. He seems to like the Churchill Downs dirt, and it's just possible that we might see a Team Valor repeat.

11. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
Whether or not he runs in the Derby is hinged on how well he works at Churchill Downs tomorrow. He seems to be somewhat forgotten, with all the discussion over the favorite's workouts dominating the headlines, but he really seems to be coming into this race in good fashion, and so long as he works well tomorrow, it should set him up for a peak effort on Saturday.

12. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I decided to drop him a couple of spots following the very slow :53.34 half-mile breeze this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center, the co-slowest workout of the day. Granted, the work did come over a slow, muddy track, but this is a colt that looked simply fabulous winning an allowance race in the slop earlier this year, and I would have liked to have seen something a bit quicker from this colt. After all, Gemologist's workout over the same track on the same day was nearly three seconds quicker.
Other Contenders
Daddy Long Legs
Daddy Nose Best
Done Talking
Liaison
Optimizer
Prospective
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Trinniberg

(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)

-Keelerman

KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- April 29th, 2012

Six days until the Derby . . .

ON THE WORK TAB


Churchill Downs

* Bodemeister was extremely sharp in his final pre-Derby workout, going five furlongs in :59 3/5 while working in company with Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) contender Jemima's Pearl. The track was muddy following a large hailstorm the night before, but Bodemeister seemed to handle the track very well and shouldn't mind if the track were to be muddy again on Derby day. It's worth remembering that Bodemeister's sire, Empire Maker, won the 2003 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in a sea of slop.

* Although he isn't in the race yet, Optimizer -- who currently sits 21st on the graded earnings list -- continues to train as though he will make the race. This morning, he went five furlongs in the good time of 1:00 2/5, closing his final eighth in :12 2/5 and his final quarter in :24 2/5. Should he make the Derby field, it is expected that Jon Court -- who rode the colt in both the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) -- would have the mount.

Palm Meadows Training Center

* It seems that trainer Todd Pletcher is pretty much alone at Palm Meadows right now, for seven of the eight horses that breezed there this morning are Pletcher trainees. That group of seven included his two Derby hopefuls, El Padrino and Gemologist, who each went a half-mile over a track labeled muddy. From the standpoint of final time, Gemologist's breeze was much more impressive, for his time of :50.39 -- while slow -- was the fastest work of the day, and nearly three seconds faster than El Padrino's :53.34. Both colts worked in company, with Gemologist breezing alongside 2011 Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) winner Disposablepleasure and El Padrino going in company with the talented maiden winner Windsurfer. Without knowing the details of either workout, it's difficult to for sure whether El Padrino's slow time was due to a disdain for the mud or just a slow opening pace, but it would have been nice to see something a bit quicker from a colt that has already proven himself to be rather fond of mud.

Kentucky Oaks Workouts

A trio of Kentucky Oaks contenders breezed this morning at a pair of racetracks, led by the tentative Oaks favorite Grace Hall, who went a half-mile in a slow :52.10 at Palm Meadows over a track labeled sloppy. At Churchill Downs, Jemima's Pearl -- as mentioned above -- breezed in company with Bodemeister, and was credited with a five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5, the fourth-fastest breeze of the day.

But by far the most impressive work was turned in by Believe You Can, who worked a bullet five furlongs at Churchill in :58 2/5, the fastest breeze of the day by 1 1/5 seconds. It was actually the second bullet breeze turned in by Believe You Can since arriving at Churchill, the other being a :59 flat work turned in on April 23rd. It appears as though the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) winner is sitting on another big race heading into the Kentucky Oaks, where she will likely be among the favorites.

IN OTHER DERBY NEWS . . .

* Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and Rousing Sermon arrived at Churchill yesterday afternoon in good order, and visited the racetrack this morning. Creative Cause is scheduled to breeze tomorrow. Also expected for tomorrow's work tab are Derby contenders Daddy Nose Best, Liaison, Mark Valeski, Sabercat, and Trinniberg, the latter expected to go an easy three-eighths of a mile.

* The questions of which jockeys will ride Alpha and Rousing Sermon remain open to debate, although it does sound as though Rajiv Maragh has pretty much secured the mount on Alpha. The Rousing Sermon mystery remains very much in question. I doubt it will happen, but how about Patrick Valenzuela, who returned to racing on April 26th?

* The first card of the spring meet at Churchill Downs was held last night, with the The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) the highlight of the day. The dominating rider was Julien Leparoux, who won four of the eleven races of the card. Miguel Mena won a pair of races, while Calvin Borel, Shaun Bridgmohan, Leandro Goncalves, Brian Hernandez, Jr., and John McKee each won one apiece. Gregory Foley was the leading trainer of the day, as his two starters each won, giving him a one-win lead over nine other trainers.

After briefly glancing at the results of the day's races, a couple of things stood out. For the first four races on the card, there didn't seem to be a distinct track bias. Every race was won by horses racing on or close to the lead, but those four winners included three favorites and a second choice. After the fourth race, a sudden hailstone left the racetrack sloppy and sealed. The next two races were won by horses making bold runs on the outside, but the seventh race went to Calvin Borel with a rail-skimming ride.

The next race was the Derby Trial, which was won in impressive fashion by Hierro, who made a strong bid on the outside to defeat Paynter by a length and a half. Paynter himself had made a strong run on the outside, but just couldn't keep up in the stretch. Third-place finisher Stealcase came into the stretch four wide, while Bourbon Courage rounded out the superfecta after a wide trip. The only colt that even remotely ran well along the fence was The Black, who led into the stretch before flattening out and finishing fifth.

The ninth race was won by Speedacious, who -- according to the Equibase chart -- "set the pace off the rail". The runner-up "pressed the pace three wide." I Knot, who finished third, raced "within striking distance off the rail, moved out for wide leaving the turn . . ." Miss Dora, who finished fourth, raced "within reach off the inside". Bella Diamante and Cascadilla Falls, both raced along the rail and tired badly.

In race ten, the top five finishers in the seven horse field raced on the outside, while the two trailers tired badly after shifting to the rail for racing room.

The final race of the day continued the trend, as outside horses swept the top five positions while horses making inside bids tired badly.

In conclusion, it would appear as though an outside bias dominated the final races of the card, getting progressively stronger as the night advanced. It is doubtful that this bias will continue once the track dries out, but it's something to watch out for during the next couple of Churchill race cards.

(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)

-Keelerman

Derby Contender Profile: WENT THE DAY WELL

Owner: Team Valor International and Mark Ford
Trainer: Graham Motion
Breeder: James Patrick Delaney
Expected Derby Jockey: John Velazquez

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight

Age 2

2nd Maiden Weight for Age
2nd Maiden Weight for Age

PEDIGREE

		Gone West
	Proud Citizen
		Drums of Freedom
Went the Day Well
		Tiznow
	Tiz Maie's Day
		Sweet Roberta

LAST WORKOUT

April 28th: 5f in 1:01 at Churchill Downs

To read what I have written about Went the Day Well in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: UNION RAGS

Owner: Chadds Ford Stable
Trainer: Michael Matz
Breeder: Phyllis M. Wyeth
Expected Derby Jockey: Julien Leparoux

RACE RECORD

Age 3

3rd Florida Derby (gr. I)
1st Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)

Age 2

2nd Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
1st Champagne Stakes (gr. I)
1st Three Chimneys Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II)
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Dixieland Band
	Dixie Union
		She's Tops
Union Rags
		Gone West
	Tempo
		Terpsichorist

LAST WORKOUT

April 28th: 5f in :59 4/5 at Churchill Downs

To read what I have written about Union Rags in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: TRINNIBERG

Owner: Shivananda Racing
Trainer: Bisnath Parboo
Breeder: J M Stables
Expected Derby Jockey: Willie Martinez

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III)
1st Swale Stakes (gr. III)

Age 2

7th Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint
2nd Nashua Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (gr. I)
5th Three Chimneys Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II)
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Johannesburg
	Teuflesberg
		St. Michele
Trinniberg
		Goldminers Gold
	Bella Dorato
		Witchkin

LAST WORKOUT

April 23rd: 6f in 1:15 2/5 at Calder Race Course

To read what I have written about Trinniberg in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: TAKE CHARGE INDY

Owner: Chuck and Maribeth Sandford
Trainer: Patrick Byrne
Breeder: Eaton Sales
Expected Derby Jockey: Calvin Borel

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st Florida Derby (gr. I)
2nd Allowance Optional Claiming

Age 2

5th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
4th Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (gr. I)
2nd Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Seattle Slew
	A.P. Indy
		Weekend Surprise
Take Charge Indy
		Dehere
	Take Charge Lady
		Felicita

LAST WORKOUT

April 26th: 5f in 1:00.47 at Palm Meadows Training Center

To read what I have written about Take Charge Indy in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: Sabercat

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Lantern Hill Farm, William J. Punk Jr., & Lighthouse Group
Expected Derby Jockey: Corey Nakatani

RACE RECORD

Age 3

3rd Arkansas Derby (gr. II)
8th Rebel Stakes (gr. II)

Age 2

1st Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III)
1st Garden State Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight
8th Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Storm Cat
	Bluegrass Cat
		She's a Winner
Sabercat
		Forty Niner
	Miner's Blessing
		Bless You

LAST WORKOUT

April 30th: 4f in :48 at Churchill Downs

To read what I have written about Sabercat in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: Rousing Sermon

Owner: Mr. and Mrs. Larry D. Williams
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Breeder: Mr. and Mrs. Larry D. Williams
Expected Derby Jockey: Unknown

RACE RECORD

Age 3

3rd Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
5th San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)
3rd Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)

Age 2

2nd CashCall Futurity (gr. I)
2nd Real Quiet Stakes
1st Bob Benoit California Cup Juvenile Stakes
3rd I'm Smokin Stakes
3rd Graduation Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Pulpit
	Lucky Pulpit
		Lucky Soph
Rousing Sermon
		Awesome Again
	Rousing Sermon
		Rousing

LAST WORKOUT

April 21st: 7f in 1:27 1/5 at Hollywood Park

To read what I have written about Rousing Sermon in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: PROSPECTIVE

Owner: John C. Oxley
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Breeder: Spendthrift Farm
Expected Derby Jockey: Luis Contreras

RACE RECORD

Age 3

6th Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)
1st Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II)
2nd Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Pasco Stakes

Age 2

13th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
1st Grey Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		A.P. Indy
	Malibu Moon
		Macoumba
Prospective
		Awesome Again
	Spirited Away
		Cape North

LAST WORKOUT

April 28th: 5f in 1:01 1/5 at Churchill Downs

To read what I have written about Prospective in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: MARK VALESKI

Owner: Brereton C. Jones
Trainer: Larry Jones
Breeder: Brereton C. Jones
Expected Derby Jockey: Rosie Napravnik

RACE RECORD

Age 3

2nd Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
2nd Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming

Age 2

1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Gone West
	Proud Citizen
		Drums of Freedom
Mark Valeski
		Fortunate Prospect
	Pocho's Dream Girl
		True to Romeo

LAST WORKOUT

April 30th: 5f in 1:00 1/5 at Churchill Downs

To read what I have written about Mark Valeski in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: LIAISON

Owner: Arnold Zetcher
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breeder: William A. Carl Estate
Expected Derby Jockey: Martin Garcia

RACE RECORD

Age 3

6th Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
4th San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)
8th Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)

Age 2

1st CashCall Futurity (gr. I)
1st Real Quiet Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		In Excess
	Indian Charlie
		Soviet Sojourn
Liaison
		Victory Gallop
	Galloping Gal
		Indy Flash

LAST WORKOUT

April 30th: 6f in 1:00 4/5 at Churchill Downs

To read what I have written about Liaison in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: I'LL HAVE ANOTHER

Owner: J. Paul Reddam
Trainer: Doug O'Neill
Breeder: Harvey Clarke
Expected Derby Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
1st Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)

Age 2

6th Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Best Pal Stakes (gr. II)
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Distorted Humor
	Flower Alley
		Princess Olivia
I'll Have Another
		Arch
	Arch's Gal Edith
		Force Fiva Gal

LAST WORKOUT

April 27th: 6f in 1:13 4/5 at Hollywood Park

To read what I have written about I'll Have Another in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: HANSEN

Owner: Kendall Hansen, M.D. and Skychai Racing
Trainer: Mike Maker
Breeder: Dr. Kendall Hansen
Expected Derby Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

RACE RECORD

Age 3

2nd Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)
1st Gotham Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III)

Age 2

1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
1st Bluegrass Cat Kentucky Cup Juvenile Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Pulpit
	Tapit
		Tap Your Heels
Hansen
		Sir Cat
	Stormy Sunday
		Thinkin'strait

LAST WORKOUT

April 28th: 5f in 1:01 1/5 at Churchill Training

To read what I have written about Hansen in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: GEMOLOGIST

Owner: Let's Go Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: G. Watts Humphrey Jr. & Louise Ireland Humphrey Revocable Trust - 2
Expected Derby Jockey: Javier Castellano

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
1st Allowance

Age 2

1st Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Cee's Tizzy
	Tiznow
		Cee's Song
Gemlogist
		Mr. Prospector
	Crystal Shard
		Sulemeif

LAST WORKOUT

April 29th: 5f in :50.39 at Palm Meadows Training Center

To read what I have written about Gemologist in the past, click here.

TO HONOR AND SERVE WINS THE WESTCHESTER HANDICAP!

To Honor and Serve announced loudly and clearly that he is going to be a force in the handicap division this year, as he won the Westchester Handicap (gr. III) at Belmont Park this afternoon in a fashion that suggests he will be just about impossible to beat in the future.

Making his first start since winning the Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I) last fall, To Honor and Serve got off to an excellent start against only three rivals and settled into the second position early on, rating comfortably while the speedy Bold Deed set a quick pace of :22.95 and :45.05. At one point, Bold Deed's lead was as large as seven lengths. Goombada Guska was racing in third, followed by Boys at Tosconova.

Derby Contender Profile: EL PADRINO

Owner: Let's Go Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Breeder: Emory A. Hamilton
Expected Derby Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

RACE RECORD

Age 3

4th Florida Derby (gr. I)
1st Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
1st Allowance race

Age 2

3rd Remsen Stakes (gr. II)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		A.P. Indy
	Pulpit
		Preach
El Padrino
		Giant's Causeway
	Enchanted Rock
		Chic Shirine

LAST WORKOUT

April 29th: 4f in :53.34 at Palm Meadows Training Center

To read what I have written about El Padrino in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: DULLAHAN

Owner: Donegal Racing
Trainer: Dale Romans
Breeder: Phil Needham, Judy Needham, & Bena Halecky
Expected Derby Jockey: Kent Desormeaux

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III)

Age 2

4th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
1st Breeders' Futurity (gr. I)
3rd With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III)
2nd Maiden Special Weight
5th Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Unbridled's Song
	Even the Score
		Ashtabula
Dullahan
		Smart Strike
	Mining My Own
		Aspenelle

LAST WORKOUT

April 28th: 5f in 1:01 1/5 at Churchill Downs

To read what I have written about Dullahan in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: DONE TALKING

Owner: Skeedattle Stable
Trainer: Hamilton Smith
Breeder: Skeedattle Associates
Expected Derby Jockey: Sheldon Russell

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st Illinois Derby (gr. III)
10th Gotham Stakes (gr. III)

Age 2

4th Remsen Stakes (gr. II)
1st Allowance race
1st Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight
3rd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Unbridled
	Broken Vow
		Wedding Vow
Done Talking
		Dixieland Band
	Dixie Talking
		Gin Talking

LAST WORKOUT

April 28th: 5f in 1:01 at Laurel Park

To read what I have written about Done Talking in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: DADDY NOSE BEST

Owner: Cathy and Bob Zollars
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Breeder: Patricia Ann Elia Trust
Expected Derby Jockey: Garrett Gomez

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st Sunland Derby (gr. III)
1st El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)

Age 2

5th Eddie Logan Stakes
1st Allowance race
6th Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II)
3rd Summer Stakes Presented by TVG (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
7th Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Johannesburg
	Scat Daddy
		Love Style
Daddy Noes Best
		Thunder Gulch
	Follow Your Bliss
		Follow the Money

LAST WORKOUT

April 30th: 4f in :49 1/5 at Churchill Downs

To read what I have written about Daddy Nose Best in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: DADDY LONG LEGS

Owner: Magnier, Mrs. John, Tabor, Michael, and Smith, Derrick
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds
Expected Derby Jockey: Colm O'Donoghue

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st U.A.E. Derby Sponsored by The Saeed & Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (UAE-II)

Age 2

12th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
1st Weight for Age Stakes
4th Weight for Age Stakes
1st Maiden Weight for Age

PEDIGREE

		Johannesburg
	Scat Daddy
		Love Style
Daddy Long Legs
		Meadowlake
	Dreamy Maiden
		Sparrow Lake

To read what I have written about Daddy Long Legs in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: CREATIVE CAUSE

Owner: Heinz Steinmann
Trainer: Mike Harrington
Breeder: James C. Weigel
Expected Derby Jockey: Joel Rosario

RACE RECORD

Age 3

2nd Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
1st San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)
3rd San Vicent Stakes (gr. II)

Age 2

3rd Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
1st Norfolk Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Del Mar Futurity (gr. I)
1st Best Pal Stakes (gr. I)
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Storm Cat
	Giant's Causeway
		Mariah's Storm
Creative Cause
		Siberian Summer
	Dream of Summer
		Mary's Dream

LAST WORKOUT

April 30th: 4f in :47 2/5 at Churchill Downs

To read what I have written about Creative Cause in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: BODEMEISTER

Owner: Zayat Stables
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Breeder: Audley Farm
Expected Derby Jockey: Mike Smith

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st Arkansas Derby (gr. I)
2nd San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight

Age 2

Unraced

PEDIGREE

		Unbridled
	Empire Maker
		Toussaud
Bodemeister
		Storm Cat
	Untouched Talent
		Parade Queen

LAST WORKOUT

April 29th: 5f in :59 3/5 at Churchill Downs

To read what I have written about Bodemeister in the past, click here.

Derby Contender Profile: ALPHA

Owner: Goldolphin Racing
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Breeder: Darley
Expected Derby Jockey: Unknown

RACE RECORD

Age 3

2nd Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
1st Withers Stakes (gr. III)
1st Count Fleet Stakes

Age 2

11th Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
2nd Champagne Stakes (gr. I)
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		A.P. Indy
	Bernardini
		Cara Rafaela
Alpha
		Nijinsky II
	Munnaya
		Hiaam

LAST WORKOUT

April 28th: 5f in :59.54 at Belmont Park Training. (Bullet work)

To read what I have written about Alpha in the past, click here.

KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- April 28th, 2012

Welcome to the first in a series of seven posts covering the workouts, general training, other such updates regarding the leading Derby contenders leading up to the Kentucky Derby on May 5th. Hopefully, we shall uncover a few clues that will help us to try and discover the Derby winner before he crosses the finish line! :)

Today's post will give a brief (alphabetical) overview of the top twenty-one Derby contenders, discussing their recent workouts and where they are based at this time, in addition to any other tidbits deemed noteworthy. Enjoy!

KENTUCKY DERBY HANDICAPPING CONTEST

The Kentucky Derby is undoubtedly one of the most, if not the most, exciting horse races of the year. It is also one of the most challenging to handicap.

To add some extra fun to this year's renewal of the historic race, I have decided to hold a "Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest". There's nothing like a good handicapping competition to add some excitement to an already great horse race!

The rules are very simple. All you have to do is pick the winner. Once you have made your selection, email it to me by writing to keelermancontest@gmail.com. The first person to email the correct selection will receive a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. You can wait until after post positions are out, but if you do, you risk having some one else beat you to the horse of your choice!

All entries must be recieved by noon CST on Derby day, May 5th, 2012. One entry per person!

Should you win the contest, you will receive a congratulatory email declaring you the winner. Your prize will be shipped out shortly thereafter.

That said, let the contest begin! Good luck!

-Keelerman

Who will ride Alpha in the Kentucky Derby?

With little more than a week remaining until the Kentucky Derby, most of the leading contenders already have jockeys signed on to ride them. However, one of the biggest, most respected contenders of all still doesn't have a confirmed rider.

That horse would be Alpha. The son of Bernardini won the Withers Stakes (gr. III) and Count Fleet Stakes during the winter, the finished second by a neck in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) while coming off of a two-month layoff. Of all the Derby contenders, this colt has quite possibly the strongest ten-furlong pedigree of them all.

So why is this fine colt still without a rider? The reason is that his regular rider has been Ramon Dominguez, the two-time Eclipse award-winning jockey. Because Dominguez is such a terrific rider, he is in great demand from many people, and he frequently flies around the country to ride top horses in major stakes races. One of his top mounts is Hansen, champion two-year-old male of 2011 and winner of the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) this year. So Dominguez was faced with a major decision: Should he ride Alpha or Hansen in the Kentucky Derby? He chose the latter, leaving Alpha without a jockey.

This leads us to the question posed in the title of this piece: Who will ride Alpha in the Kentucky Derby?

One logical option would be Alan Garcia. The highly talented rider rode Alpha in two races last year, including the Champagne Stakes (gr. I), where the colt ran second to Union Rags. He frequently rides horses for Alpha's trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, so it would come as a surprise to no one if Garcia gets the mount.

Another logical rider would have been Eddie Castro, who also rides many horses for McLaughlin. However, the jockey has already committed to ride Winter Memories in the Beaugay Stakes (gr. III) at Belmont Park on Derby day, so he is not an option.

Rajiv Maragh could certainly have a shot at securing the mount as well. He galloped Alpha the other day during routine training at Belmont Park, and is coming off of a successful meet at Gulfstream Park, where he won fifty-eight races and over $2 million in purse money. And while I don't know the exact statistics, it seems to me that McLaughlin and Maragh have teamed up fairly often in the past.

Are there any other possible riders? Garcia and Maragh are certainly my two top guesses, but there are plenty of other talented riders out there that could potentially be chosen. Edgar Prado is still without a mount, as is Jose Lezcano. How about Fernando Jara? He and McLaughlin teamed up to win the 2006 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) together with Jazil.

The official announcement as to who will ride Alpha will undoubtedly come during the next few days. After all, entries are taken on Wednesday, and we'll have to know then. My guess is that Alan Garcia will get the mount. What do you think?

-Keelerman

KENTUCKY DERBY HORSES AND RIDERS

With the Kentucky Derby post position draw now less than a week away, I thought it would prove interesting to take a look at the current top twenty contenders by graded earnings and compile a list of their prospective riders. Here is that list, with the names of Derby-winning jockeys in bold.

Alpha - Unknown jockey
Bodemeister - Mike Smith
Creative Cause - Joel Rosario
Daddy Long Legs - Colm O'Donoghue
Daddy Nose Best - Garrett Gomez
Done Talking - Russell Sheldon
Dullahan - Kent Desormeaux
El Padrino - Rafael Bejarano
Gemologist - Javier Castellano
Hansen - Ramon Dominguez
I'll Have Another - Mario Gutirrez
Liaison - Martin Garcia
Mark Valeski - Rosie Napravnik
Prospective - Luis Contreras
Rousing Sermon - Unknown jockey
Sabercat - Corey Nakatani
Take Charge Indy - Calvin Borel
Trinniberg - Willie Martinez
Union Rags - Julien Leparoux
Went the Day Well - John Velazquez

Only two colts do not have a confirmed Derby jockey, those being Alpha and Rousing Sermon. If I were to take a guess on which riders will be selected, I would say that Alan Garcia will be chosen to ride Alpha, and Russell Baze or Robby Albarado will be assigned to Rousing Sermon. Of course, there are plenty of other top-notch riders out there without Derby mounts, and any one of them would make a good choice, but those are my best guesses.

Of the four jockeys in the race to have previously won the Derby, Calvin Borel and Kent Desormeaux have both won the race three times. Mike Smith and John Velazquez each have a single victory to their credit, with Velazquez's victory coming last year aboard Animal Kingdom.

As for Borel, he made himself a Derby legend when he won three Derbies in four years, and has an excellent chance of bringing that record to four wins in six years when he rides Take Charge Indy this year. Winner of the Florida Derby (gr. I) over Union Rags, Take Charge Indy has the speed to be a contender from the start, the pedigree to run a mile and a quarter or beyond, and as long as he draws a good post position, he should have every chance in the homestretch.

-Keelerman

Derby Trial Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III), to be run on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The first stakes race of the 2012 Churchill Downs spring meet, the one-mile race has drawn a large but unproven field of eleven, including the undefeated Bourbon Courage, graded stakes winner Motor City, and the promising Bob Baffert-trainee Paynter.

1 Tarpy's Goal
2 The Black
3 Saint of Saints
4 Nonios
5 Hierro
6 Quick Wit
7 Paynter
8 Seve
9 Stealcase
10 Motor City
11 Bourbon Courage

-Keelerman

Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings: Who will make the cut? Part III

(Welcome to part III of my Kentucky Derby graded earnings analysis, a comprehensive series of posts examining the graded earnings list which is used to determine which twenty three-year-olds will be allowed to compete in the Kentucky Derby. To view part I, click here. To view part II, click here.)

***

With the Kentucky Derby little more than a week and a half away, the prospective Derby field is unlikely to change very much. However, the possibility still exists that we could see an unexpected name end up in the top twenty.

Let's take a look at the current graded earnings list . . .

1. Hansen $1,550,000
2. Daddy Long Legs $1,294,030
3. Union Rags $1,170,000
4. Dullahan $855,000
5. Creative Cause $836,000
6. Gemologist $703,855
7. Sabercat $701,429.
8. Take Charge Indy $698,400
9. Bodemeister $660,000
10. Hero of Order $617,375*
11. I'll Have Another $601,000
12. Daddy Nose Best $545,558
13. Liaison $393,000
14. Alpha $380,000
15. Prospective $367,327
16. Trinniberg $324,500
17. Done Talking $311,000
18. Went the Day Well $282,000
19. Rousing Sermon $270,000
20. Mark Valeski $260,000
21. El Padrino $250,000
22. Isn't He Clever $191,333
23. Optimizer $184,708
24. Castaway $162,667
25. Currency Swap $150,000
25. The Lumber Guy $150,000
27. My Adonis $140,000
28. Brother Francis $135,000
29. All Squared Away $129,400

(*Not nominated to the Kentucky Derby.)
Excluding Hero of Order, who is not nominated to the Derby, we see that the top twenty concludes with Mark Valeski and El Padrino, a pair of colts that seemed to be in danger of not making the cut a few weeks ago.

An interesting, if only slight, modification to the top twenty is that Liaison has been confirmed as a starter. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Indian Charlie won the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) as a juvenile, but disappointed in three starts at Santa Anita this year.

This confirmation will make things difficult for any colts below El Padrino, for they would now need one of the major contenders to drop out in order to make the field. Hopefully, this will not happen, but it's worth noting that for the last three years, the Derby favorite -- not just any old Derby starter -- has been scratched in the final days before the race.

Now, let's assume for a moment that one of the top twenty contenders were to scratch from consideration due to one reason or another. The beneficiary of this move would be Isn't He Clever, runner-up in the Sunland Derby (gr. III). However, his connections have already mentioned that they are not really leaning toward running him in the Derby; instead, the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) or the Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II) would be a more likely spot.

So if Isn't He Clever were not entered, then Optimizer could take advantage of the situation. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the colt has shown a great deal of promise throughout his career, but has actually never won anything but a maiden special weight. However, he did finish a fast-closing second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) two starts back, suggesting that he has enough ability to warrant a start in the Derby.

Next on the list is Castaway, winner of the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) earlier this year. But since then, he has performed dismally in both the Sunland Derby (gr. III) and the Lexington Stakes (gr. III), and I doubt trainer Bob Baffert would run him even if the colt did have sufficient graded earnings.

Below him are Currency Swap and The Lumber Guy, both at $150,000. Currency Swap won the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) as a juvenile, but was beaten by a large margin in the Illinois Derby (gr. III) after a rough trip. The Lumber Guy is coming off of a victory in the one-mile Jerome Stakes (gr. II), but the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby is likely out of his scope. Instead, the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) has been mentioned as a potential goal.

So let's back out for a moment and look at the big picture. As of right now, El Padrino would be the last colt to make the cutoff. If any horse in the top twenty were to be injured, then it is likely that Optimizer would be the one to take advantage of the situation. But if a second colt were to drop out of consideration, then it is very difficult to say for sure which horse would sneak into that twentieth spot. Would Currency Swap or The Lumber Guy be entered? What about My Adonis? Would Brother Francis ship in at the last minute?

Hopefully, we will never find out. Hopefully, all of the top twenty contenders will remain sound and fulfill their owners' Derby dreams. But it's certainly not impossible that we could see a very little-known name sneak into the Derby under the right conditions.

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S TOP TWELVE -- April 23rd, 2012

(Due to the fact that the Derby is rapidly approaching, I have decided to shorten this week's Top Twenty to a mere Top Twelve. Enjoy!)

1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
Let the workouts begin! On April 17th, Creative Cause turned in his next-to-last workout for the Derby, going five-eighths of a mile in an easy 1:01 1/5 at Hollywood Park. It certainly wasn't the quickest of moves, but we don't want him peaking too soon. His final breeze will come at Churchill Downs next weekend, and whether or not he retains this top spot all the way to the Derby depends on how good a workout it is.

2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
This colt is really getting serious in his training now, as he worked a half-mile work in :47 2/5 on April 20th at Keeneland, a much sharper breeze than anything he turned in leading up to the Florida Derby. One more work is on the agenda, and it will come at Churchill Downs. So long as it's a good, stiff, quick breeze, I might just end up putting him back on top.

3. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
Unlike many of the horses on this list, this colt will not breeze at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby; he ships in too late for that. Instead, he will record his final works at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he breezed five furlongs 1:01.66 on April 19th. Although he did win the Florida Derby in wire-to-wire fashion, I don't envision him being part of the pace on the first Saturday in May. Rather, I expect to see him rating off of the early pace while racing along the rail, much like Super Saver did in 2010. So long as he gets a clear run from there, he should be right there in the homestretch.

4. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He has arrived at Churchill Downs and has been galloping; his first workout over the track is scheduled to come tomorrow. The key with this colt is to keep him from peaking too soon -- hopefully, he didn't leave his best effort in Arkansas. But seeing that he is lightly raced, he should be okay. The presence of two-time stakes winning sprinter Trinniberg will, in my opinion, help this colt's chances. It will give him a speedy front-runner to rate behind, so that he won't have to set the pace himself. After all, winning the Derby in gate-to-wire fashion is not an easy thing to do.

5. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
The more I think about his Blue Grass performance the more I like it. So why do I still have him down here in position number five? I'm afraid I don't know. I could put him up into the second spot if I wanted to, and I may if he trains well leading up to the Derby. The fact that he did finish fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) is a plus in my opinion, because it proves that he can handle the Churchill dirt at least pretty well. And he did finish ahead of Take Charge Indy, Alpha, Daddy Long Legs, Prospective, and Optimizer that day.

6. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Now, I may be a bit confused as to why I have Dullahan down in position number five, but I simply cannot comprehend why I have Gemologist -- an undefeated Wood Memorial winner from the barn of Todd Pletcher with a pair of wins at Churchill Downs -- down here in spot number six. That is how talented this year's Derby field is. There is so little seperating the top eight or nine contenders that you could put any one of them at the top and feel good about your pick. As for this colt in particular, he -- like Take Charge Indy -- will do all of his serious training at Palm Meadows, where he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.81 on April 20th.

7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Try and figure this one out. The colt that beat my #1 pick in the Santa Anita Derby is down here in spot number seven. Further proof of how talented these colts are. This one has been breezing longer distances than most, or all, of the other Derby contenders, which is something I really like. On April 19th, he went six furlongs in 1:13 3/5, and I actually wouldn't be surprised if he goes seven furlongs next time, for that is what he did prior to his Santa Anita Derby victory.

8. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
I decided to drop him one spot this week due to the fact that his entire Derby schedule has been goofed up due to infected cuts suffered as a result of clipping heels in the Wood Memorial. Instead of having two breezes at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby, he will breeze only once, and he will do it at Belmont Park. And furthermore, his regular rider Ramon Dominguez is going to stick with Hansen in the Derby, meaning that this colt will have to find a new jockey to boot. But at least he's back to galloping.

9. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
As mentioned above, he will retain the services of regular rider Ramon Dominguez in the Kentucky Derby. Like Bodemeister, I think that the presence of Trinniberg could help Hansen's chances immensely, giving him a front-runner to rate behind; to settle behind; to tackle on the far turn. He should be back on the work tab before too long.

10. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He has found himself a Derby rider in Rafael Bejarano, who lost his previous mount Secret Circle due to injury. This colt seems to have been forgotten a bit in all the hype over the top contenders, but the fact is that his Florida Derby effort wasn't really all that bad, and I think he's training as well as anyone else. After all, he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.56 at Palm Meadows on the same day as Gemologist, getting the distance in slightly faster time. Like his stablemate, he won't get a chance to breeze at Churchill, but at least we know that he's got the pedigree and class to be a contender.

11. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
Breezed six furlongs in company with Crimson China on April 21st at Keeneland, going a moderate six furlongs in 1:14 2/5. It was by no means a quit breeze, but then again, this colt has never been much of a work horse -- his final workout prior to his Spiral Stakes victory was five furlongs in 1:01.92. We should learn a great deal more about this colt when he breezes at Churchill Downs sometime during the next week.
12. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
It's very difficult to decide which horse to include in this final spot. I went back and forth and back and forth between Daddy Nose Best and Mark Valeski, finally giving the nod to the latter colt due to the fact that he breezed five furlongs in a sharp :59 3/5 at Churchill Downs this morning. He seems to have come out of the Louisiana Derby in good fashion, which is certainly nice to see. He's got one more work left on the agenda, and how good a breeze it is will determine whether he retains this twelfth position, drops a bit, or moves up. I think he'll move up.

Other Notable Contenders

Daddy Long Legs
Daddy Nose Best
Done Talking
Liaison
Optimizer
Prospective
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Trinniberg

-Keelerman

THE LUMBER GUY WINS THE JEROME STAKES!

The Lumber Guy, racing on just two weeks rest, turned back a determined bid from Brigand to win the $200,000 Jerome Stakes (gr. II) by 2 3/4 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Michael Luzzi, The Lumber Guy got off to a quick start in a field of six and went straight to the early lead while being pressured by Brigand. The two quickly sprinted clear of the field, leading by three lengths through an opening quarter in :22.98 and by two lengths through a half-mile in :45.83. Dan and Sheila and Term Loan were racing in third and fourth, alternating that position as they raced down the backstretch, while Adirondack King and Stirred Up were the early trailers.

ALL SQUARED AWAY WINS THE LEXINGTON STAKES!

All Squared Away pulled off a 70-1 upset in the $200,000 Lexington Stakes (gr. III) this afternoon at Keeneland, pulling away from Summer Front in the stretch to win by a length and a half.

Ridden to victory by Julio Garcia, All Squared Away settled into the fourth position early on, between two and three lengths off of the early pace set by Johannesbourbon, Castaway, and Hammers Terror, who were racing three across the track while rattling off quick fractions of :23.21, :46.54, and 1:10.83. Summer Front and Skyring were racing together in fifth, followed by Golden Ticket, Gold Megillah, Morgan's Guerrilla, Holiday Promise, and News Pending.

Rounding the far turn, Castaway began to tire and quickly dropped out of contention, leaving Johannesbourbon and Hammers Terror together on the lead. But they were soon confronted by All Squared Away, who swept into contention on the far outside before passing them both. Summer Front tried to close with him, as did Golden Ticket, but neither were up to catching the huge longshot, who drove clear to win convincingly in the good time of 1:42.55 for a mile and a sixteenth.

Summer Front finished second by a neck over Hammers Terror, while Gold Megillah rounded out the superfecta. Golden Ticket, Holiday Promise, Johannesbourbon, Skyring, Castaway, News Pending, and Morgan's Guerrilla completed the order of finish. The winner is trained by Wesley Ward and owned by Altamira Racing Stable and Wire To Wire Racing. A son of Bellamy Road, the colt earned $120,000 for his victory.

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- April 21st, 2012

A pair of final-chance Derby prep races are being held this afternoon, where some late-maturing colts lacking in graded earnings shall get one last chance to stamp themselves a ticket to Churchill Downs for the $2,000,000 Kentucky Derby. Let's begin by taking a look at the Lexington Stakes (gr. III), in which a number of horses look like intriguing contenders.

Lexington Stakes (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the Keeneland Polytrack
Entries:

PP	Horse	Jockey
1	Morgan's Guerrilla	Julien Leparoux
2	Summer Front	Ramon Dominguez
3	Johannesbourbon	Garrett Gomez
4	Skyring	Jon Court
5	Golden Ticket	M. R. Cruz
6	Holiday Promise	Junior Alvarado
7	Castaway	Shaun Bridgmohan
8	Hammers Terror	Robby Albarado
9	All Squared Away	Alan Garcia
10	News Pending	Kent Desormeaux
11	Gold Megillah	John Velazquez

The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Castaway, from the barn of Bob Baffert. The son of Street Sense was a well-regarded Derby contender following an impressive 3 3/4 length victory in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), but failed badly in his only start since then, finishing a very distant seventh in the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) last month. That effort can probably be chalked up to the very fast pace which he helped set, but he probably won't get a much easier lead today. Coupled with the fact that he is switching from dirt to Polytrack, I think that while he certainly deserves respect in this spot, he is a beatable favorite.

If so, who can beat him? Summer Front and News Pending will undoubtedly receive some support in the betting. The first-mentioned colt is undefeated in three starts, including a pair of minor stakes victories last year. However, he hasn't raced in four months, which leaves one to wonder if he will be sharp enough to win. On the other hand, he has turned in some good workouts as of late, and will have two-time Eclipse award winner Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. Expect him to be coming strongly from just off the pace.

As for News Pending, he looked like a rising star when he finished a strong second to Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) back in February, but could only manage a seventh-place finish in the Florida Derby (gr. I) three weeks ago. He does have some good efforts over turf, which could potentially translate to a strong performance over the Keeneland Polytrack this afternoon, but breaking from post position ten, he could potentially find himself hung wide on both turns. Which News Pending will show up today? That's a difficult question.
Morgan's Guerrilla and Holiday Promise both look like good horses, too. Holiday Promise, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, looked great last time out when finishing second in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) behind Went the Day Well, a race in which he made a strong middle move before flattening out just a bit late. Morgan's Guerrilla enters off of just two weeks rest, having finished a strong second to Done Talking in the $500,000 Illinois Derby (gr. III) after getting hung wide on both turns. Both colts are eligible to improve today, but of the pair, I like Holida Promise best.

Golden Ticket didn't look like anything special at the beginning of his career, for he lost all four of his starts as a juvenile and brought his losing streak to five with a loss in his first start of 2012. But the colt has improved rapidly since then, breaking his maiden by two lengths at Gulfstream on February 11th before finishing a strong second to Prospective in the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) last month. He does have a pair of starts over the Keeneland Polytrack, having finished third and fourth in a pair of maiden races here last fall, but has obviously improved a great deal since then and would appear to have a major shot at winning this race.

Very intriguing at odds of 8-1 is Johannesbourbon, who will be stretching out and facing winners for the first time today in what will be only his second start. Trained by Kellyn Gorder, the son of Johannesburg looked great in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Turfway Park last month, drawing away powerfully to win by 9 3/4 lengths. This is not an easy spot for a horse to make his second start, but the colt signaled his readiness with a sharp five-furlong work in :48 2/5 here at Keeneland on April 17th. He looks like the speed of the race to me, and although it is difficult to say how far he will take them, it's certainly possible that he could win in gate-to-wire fashion.

Gold Megillah may be 10-1 on the morning line, but he may have a better chance at winning than many think. Last time out, he finished a fast-closing third in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths by Flashy Dresser and Gung Ho. The form of that race was vindicated last weekend when Flashy Dresser won the Robert Hilton Memorial Stakes at Charles Town, just a few hours after Gung Ho ran a strong third in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Based on this alone, Gold Megillah desrves consideration, and when one takes into account that he is trained by Graham Motion and will be ridden by John Velazquez, I think that this colt could be a very serious contender.

This brings us to the three longshots, Hammers Terror, Skyring, and All Squared Away. Hammers Terror looked like a budding star in his first three starts, which yielded a pair of victories and a nose defeat, but disappointing efforts in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) and Black Gold Stakes have cause him to be virtually forgotten. But in that Black Gold Stakes, he was beaten just two lengths by subsequent Louisiana Derby (gr. II) winner Hero of Order despite being steadied in deep stretch. Furthermore, he did break his maiden here at Keeneland last fall in a highly impressive performance. Given these facts, it's reasonable to say that Hammers Terror should not be 30-1 on the morning line, and might actually have a decent shot at hitting the board.

As for Skyring, he looked good breaking his maiden two back by a neck at Oaklawn Park, but subsequently finished a distant seventh in the Illinois Derby (gr. III) after stumbling at the start. He's probably better than he showed in that race, but this will be his first start over a synthetic surface, and he's facing a pretty tough field of horses today. Being by English Channel, he might enjoy the switch to synthetic, but you never know.

Finally, we come to All Squared Away. 50-1 on the morning line, his only victory from eight strarts came in a maiden special weight at Golden Gate Fields on January 22nd, in which he finished the 1 1/16th miles race in a slow 1:47 1/5. A subsequent seventh-place finish in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) seemed to stamp him as a rather low-quality three-year-old. However, I really liked his last performance, which was a sixth-place finish in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III). He was next-to-last early on, but made a strong move on the far turn while racing five wide to get into contention before flattening out to be beaten 9 1/2 lengths. He has since switched barns, moving from the care of trainer Peter Miller to Wesley Ward, and turned in a decent breeze on April 13th. He'll be a huge longshot, but I really, really believe that this horse is up to turning in a good performance.

Here are my selections:

1 Johannesbourbon
2 Holiday Promise
3 All Squared Away
4 Gold Megillah

And here are J.R.'s selections:

1 Gold Megillah
2 Summer Front
3 Holiday Promise
4 Castaway

Other Races of Note

At Aqueduct on Saturday . . .

Race 9: The $200,000 Jerome Stakes (gr. II) orginally drew a field of seven, but the scratch of Right to Vote has reduced the field to six. Favoritism will probably be between The Lumber Guy and Stirred Up; the first-mentioned colt being an impressive front-running sprinter that ran fifth in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) two weeks ago that is now dropping back down in distance. They'll have to catch him to beat him. Stirred Up defeated the highly-regarded Holy Candy two starts back, then finished third in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) last time out. If the pace is quick, he should be coming fast late. Adirondack King ran good but not great in a pair of two-turn Derby preps at Oaklawn, and is now cutting back to a one-turn mile. He should be much sharper today.

My selections are:

1 The Lumber Guy
2 Brigand
3 Adirondack King
4 Stirred Up

J.R.'s selections are:

1 Adirondack King
2 The Lumber Guy
3 Stirred Up
4 Dan and Sheila

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- April 20th, 2012

Last weekend, Bodemeister and Dullahan stamped themselves as two of the best three-year-olds in the country when they turned in powerful performances to claim some of the biggest Kentucky Derby (gr. I) prep races of the year. Here are my recaps of their performances, as well as recaps of a few other notable races that were run last weekend. Enjoy!

Major Stakes Recaps

Arkansas Derby (gr. I)

A lot can be said about Bodemeister's decisive victory in this million-dollar Kentucky Derby prep, but here's the gist of it: He needed a good effort to guarantee himself a spot in the Derby, and came through with flying colors.

Some people were concerned that Bodemeister might get hung wide on the turns, seeing that he was breaking from post eleven in a race with a fair amount of early speed. But these worries were tossed aside when Bodemeister rushed to the lead under Mike Smith while setting a quick pace of :23.02 and :46.55. His stablemate, Secret Circle, and the Todd Pletcher-trained Stat made runs at him around the far turn, but Bodemeister turned them back with ease and drew off with unbelievable power in the homestretch, closing his final eighth in a blazing :11.97 seconds to win by 9 1/2 lengths. Furthermore, his final time of 1:48.71 was over a second quicker than older horses ran the same distance one race earlier in the $400,000 Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II).

What makes Bodemeister such an intriguing Derby contender is his ability to go fast early and go fast late. Not many horses that run the opening half mile in :46-and-change manage to close their final eighth in under twelve seconds. At least, not at nine furlongs. In a race like the Derby, the ability to run your rivals off their feet at the start, and kick away from them again in the homestretch, could prove to be a nearly unbeatable combination of talents.

Of course, if Bodemeister is to win the Derby, he will have to break 130 years of tradition, simply because he did not race as a juvenile. The last horse to win the Derby without racing at age two was, of course, the famed Apollo, who accomplished the feat in 1882.

One last thing I would like to mention is Bodemeister's pedigree, which is most certainly not a sprinter's pedigree. While Bodemeister certainly has blazing early speed, he is also a son of Empire Maker out of a Storm Cat mare, meaning that the Derby distance of a mile and a quarter should prove no challenge for him. Of course, we won't know for sure until he does it, but he has certainly shown no signs of stamina limitations thus far.

Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)

I'll be the first to admit that I thought Dullahan was hopelessly beaten around the far turn. And not because I didn't want him to win -- on the contrary, he was my selection. But with Hansen still going strongly on the front end, and with Dullahan seemingly buried along the rail without really making up any ground, I thought for sure that Hansen would be the winner.

But then, when the field straightened into the homestretch, jockey Kent Desormeaux guided Dullahan to the outside and asked his mount for run. The response he got was simply explosive.

Running about as fast as a horse can run at the end of nine furlongs, Dullahan flew past the majority of the field and set his sights on Hansen. Although he still trailed by four lengths passing the eighth pole, and although Hansen was still finishing up strongly, Dullahan managed to close the gap with breathtaking speed and win with authority by 1 1/4 lengths. He ran his final eighth in roughly :11.68 seconds, a phenomenal time indeed.

Hansen also ran a very good race. After setting a fairly quick pace of :23.10, :46.64, and 1:11.32, he kicked on for home by running his fourth quarter in an excellent :24.14. This carried him to a 2 1/2 length lead passing the eighth pole, after which he was mowed down by Dullahan. But he defeated the rest of the field in decisive fashion, and seemed to still be running strong at the end, so although he did lose the race, there is no reason to suggest that he will not be a contender on the first Saturday in May.

Gung Ho finished a surprising third at odds of 31-1, challenging Hansen boldly around the far turn before tiring just a bit to finish 2 1/2 lengths behind Hansen. Holy Candy, a well-regarded maiden winner from California, rallied late for fourth after a poor start.

Also worth noting is Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) winner Prospective, who finished an even sixth. He didn't really have an excuse, but he didn't appear to get over the Polytrack as well as he did the Tampa dirt, which could explain his dull performance. He'll head to Churchill Downs as one of the longshots, but it might be wise to forgive this dull effort and hope he runs back to his previous form.

Other Race of Note

Not a whole lot else went on last weekend in terms of major three-year-old racing action, but there were a few races that are worth mentioning, as you never know where a good horse will come from.

At Charles Town last Saturday, Flashy Dresser brought his record to a perfect 3-for-3 with an impressive victory in the seven-furlong Robert Hilton Memorial Stakes. Allowed to rate off of the early pace under Julien Leparoux, the colt was in serious need of racing room around the far turn, and appeared to be trapped with nowhere to go in the homestretch. But the colt split horses gamely and then the race was over just like that, as Flashy Dresser drew off strongly to win by a length in 1:25.12.

The Calder Derby at Calder Race Course also produced intriguing results. The 1 1/16th miles race was rained off of the turf, but this didn't really hurt the field size, for nine horses started. Longshot Late Night Action set the early pace, with Good Morning Diva tracking him in second and Big Screen rating in third. Late Night Action retreated with about five-sixteenths of a mile to run, leaving the other two alone on the lead to settle the race between them. Big Screen was the first to make a move, and maintained a narrow advantage past the eighth pole, but Good Morning Diva came back under strong urging to win by a neck in 1:46.96. It was another 7 1/4 lengths back to third-place finisher Musical Flair, proving that the top two were indeed much the best.

Another race worth noting occurred just yesterday at Santa Anita, where the nine-furlong La Puente Stakes was run over a mile on the turf. Blingo, coming off of a sixth-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) on the main track, was the odds-on favorite and ran to expectation. Third early on behind a slow pace of :48.24 and 1:12.14, the colt finished up strongly under Mike Smith, rallying into quick closing fractions to win by a half-length over fellow closer Vibrato Jazz in 1:47.58. Particularly impressive was the fact that Blingo ran his final three-eighths in about :34.94 seconds, a blazingly fast time indeed. But actually, Vibrato Jazz ran his even faster, finishing up in about :34.44 seconds. These two look like they could be serious turf horses in the future.

The last race we shall discuss actually occurred on April 11th at Oaklawn Park, but I forgot to mention it in last week's race recaps' post. The $300,000 Fantasy Stakes (gr. II), a major Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) prep race, was won in impressive fashion by trainer Bob Baffert's Mamma Kimbo, who brought her record to a perfect 2-for-2 when she held off the highly talented Amie's Dini to score by 1 1/4 lengths in the sharp time of 1:43.64 for a mile and a sixteenth. Like Bodemeister, she was able to set an excellent early pace (23.43 and :46.77) and still finish up fairly well, although not as quickly as her Derby-bound stablemate. Jemima's Pearl, also from Baffert's barn, closed well to finish third, and will join her stablemate Mamma Kimbo for a shot at the Kentucky Oaks.

-Keelerman

Jerome Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 Jerome Stakes (gr. II), to be run at Aqueduct on April 21st. The one-mile race has drawn a small but talented field of seven, including a pair of colts -- Brigand and Stirred Up -- from the barn of Bob Baffert.

1 The Lumber Guy
2 Brigand
3 Stirred Up
4 Dan and Sheila
5 Right to Vote
6 Adirondack King
7 Term Loan

-Keelerman

Lexington Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. III), to be run on Saturday at Keeneland. The 1 1/16th miles race has drawn a large field of eleven, including Southwest Stakes (gr. III) winner Castaway, Illinois Derby (gr. III) runner-up Morgan's Guerrilla, as well as Golden Ticket, News Pending, and Holiday Promise.

1 Morgan's Guerrilla
2 Summer Front
3 Johannesbourbon
4 Skyring
5 Golden Ticket
6 Holiday Promise
7 Castaway
8 Hammers Terror
9 All Aquared Away
10 News Pending
11 Gold Megillah

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY -- April 16th, 2012

1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He's going to have to fight for the top spot in the weeks leading up to the Derby, because impressive performances by Bodemeister and Dullahan -- among others -- could move them up my list if they train well at Churchill Downs. But let's remember that this colt beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) back on March 10th. The latter's subsequent victory in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) says something about the amount of Derby talent in California this year.

2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
Breezed a half mile in :48 2/5 at Palm Meadows on April 12th, his first breeze since the Florida Derby. Interestingly, it will be his final workout in Florida, for he is shipping to Kentucky earlier than expected. There, he will likely train at Keeneland before heading to Churchill Downs for his final preparation.

GYPSY ROBIN WINS THE BEAUMONT STAKES!

Gypsy Robin went straight to the lead and never looked back in Keeneland's $150,000 Beaumont Stakes (gr. II), drawing away in the stretch to win by about three or four lengths.

Ridden to victory by Jeffrey Sanchez, Gypsy Robin got off to an excellent start and quickly sprinted clear of her rivals while setting a very slow pace of :24.15 and :49.10. Livi Makenzie was racing on the outside in second, about a length and a half behind the leader. Favored Sacristy was in the three path, followed by Piskacha along the rail. Born Bullish and Milania were the early trailers.

BODEMEISTER WINS THE ARKANSAS DERBY!

Bodemeister, sent off as the 2-1 favorite, ran to his odds in the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I) this afternoon at Oaklawn Park, drawing away powerfully in the stretch to win by nine lengths.

Ridden to victory by Mike Smith, Bodemeister broke outward at the start, but quickly recovered and was sent straight to the lead. Stat was right behind him in second, followed closely by Bodemeister's stablemate Secret Circle. Jake Mo was next, followed by Isn't He Clever, Raconteur, and Optimizer. Cozzetti, Sabercat, Atigun, and Najjaar were the early trailers.

DULLAHAN WINS THE BLUE GRASS STAKES!

3-1 shot Dullahan turned in a powerful late run to pull off a mild upset in the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) this afternoon at Keeneland race course, charging past Hansen in deep stretch to win by about a length and a quarter.

Ridden to victory by Kent Desormeaux, Dullahan settled far off of the pace early on as Hansen, as expected, led the way through challenging fractions of :23.10 and :46.64. Politicallycorrect, Hero of Order, Midnight Crooner, Gung Ho, Howe Great, Heavy Breathing, Scatman, Prospective were also fairly close to the early lead, while Ever So Lucky, Dullahan, Russian Greek, and Holy Candy were the early trailers.

ALTERNATION WINS THE OAKLAWN HANDICAP!

Alternation stamped himself as one of the leaders -- if not the leader -- of the older males division when he defeated a top-notch field of runners in the $400,000 Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II) this afternoon at Oaklawn Park.

Ridden to victory by Luis Quinonez, Alternation got off to a quick start and went straight to the lead while setting a moderate pace of :23.91 and :48.30. Yawanna Twist was about a length behind in second, followed by Don Dulce and Stachys. Hymn Book, winner of the Donn Handicap (gr. I), was racing in fifth, followed by Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) winner Ron the Greek, 2011 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) runner-up Nehro, and stretch-running Win Willy.

IT'S TRICKY WINS THE DISTAFF HANDICAP!

It's Tricky brought her 2012 record to a perfect 2-for-2 with an authoritative victory in Aqueduct's $200,000 Distaff Handicap (gr. II), winning by three lengths despite appearing hopelessly beaten around the turn.

Sent off as the 3-5 favorite against four rivals, It's Tricky got off to a good start and settled into the third position early on as Dontbeshy I'll Buy and Nicole H set a good pace of :22.51 and :45.13. White Merlot was right behind them in fourth, followed by stretch-running C C's Pal.

DAISY DEVINE WINS THE JENNY WILEY STAKES!

Daisy Devine got off to a good start and never looked back in Keeneland's Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I), kicking clear at the top of the stretch and holding the closers to win in good fashion.

Ridden to victory by James Graham, Daisy Devine got off to a good beginning and went straight to the lead while rattling off slow fractions of :25.12, :50.78, and 1:15.35. Bay to Bay was racing in second, followed by Heavenly Landing and Tapitsfly. Aruna and Zagora were the early trailers.

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- April 14th, 2012

With the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) just three weeks way, the final two major prep races are scheduled to be run later this afternoon. They are the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland, and the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I) at Oaklawn Park.

Due to the number of horses in each race -- a grand total of twenty-four horses are running -- I shan't write out my normal, lengthy analysis of every runner. Instead, I shall write a brief paragraph on each one, in an attempt to cover as much ground as possible in as few words as possible. Enjoy!

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- April 13th, 2012

Here are my recaps of last week's major racing action, including I'll Have Another's impressive victory in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and Gemologist's determined triumph over Alpha in the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I). Enjoy!

Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)

My general impression of this race was that the top three finishers all ran spectacular races. I'll Have Another should be given a great deal of credit for his victory, for winning a race like that off of a two-month layoff -- and only his second start in seven months -- is not an easy task. Furthermore, he was a bit wide all the way around the racetrack, whereas the two horses immediately behind him got ground-saving rail trips.

As for Creative Cause, I thought he ran very well while racing without blinkers for the first time. The fact that he was able to race along the rail for the entire race and dive through a narrow hold around the far turn would seem to say that he will have no trouble with such scenarios in the Kentucky Derby. He did drift around somewhat when struck by the whip in the stretch, but settled down and finished strongly once the whip was put away and nearly outfinished the winner.

Blueskiesnrainbows, who was beaten just three-quarters of a length for everything, turned in a somewhat surprising performance, seeing that the former claimer was sent off at 42-1 and nearly pulled off a gate-to-wire upset. Under Joe Talamo, the colt opened up a 2 1/2 length lead early on while setting a fairly moderate pace of :23.11, :47.11, and 1:11.14. A fourth quarter in :24.22 nearly sealed the deal, as he led by a half-length passing the eighth pole, but just couldn't find enough late to stem off the late runs from I'll Have Another and Creative Cause. While he lacks the necessary graded earnings to enter the Kentucky Derby, he strikes me as a colt that could be a serious Preakness Stakes (gr. I) contender.

As for the rest, Paynter certainly ran well to finish fourth in what was not only his stakes and two-turn debut, but also his second start and his first beyond 5 1/2 furlongs. He is going to get much better with time and experience, so be sure to watch out for him in the future. Liaison disappointed once again, finishing a distant sixth, which makes me suspect that he may be best over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track, where he won the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Real Quiet Stakes last year. Midnight Transfer, who finished seventh, never got into contention after racing very wide throughout.

Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)

Both the victorious Gemologist and the runner-up Alpha ran very well in this spot, thoroughly outclassing their opponents despite difficult trips. Gemologist looked simply terrific while bring his record to a perfect 5-for-5, as he was hung wide on both turns before powering clear in the homestretch. He seemed to lose focus a bit when he struck the front, but started running again when Alpha challenged him and dug in for a determined victory. I have the feeling that he had more left in the tank than he appeared to.

As for Alpha, he had to check pretty hard on the first turn, and was subsequently stuck along the rail for most of the race. Despite this, he hooked to the outside turning for home and charged hard to fall just a neck short. He proved to me that he can handle traffic and adversity, which will be useful in the Kentucky Derby.

Teeth of the Dog surprised me just a bit by finishing strongly for third. Unfortunately, he lacks the necessary graded earnings to make the Derby field. Perhaps we shall see him later this spring in the Preakness (gr. I) or the Belmont (gr. I).

Illinois Derby (gr. II)

Done Talking looked pretty good in the Illinois Derby (gr. II), charging from well off the pace to secure a clear victory. Admittedly, the final time was very, very slow -- 1:53.88 -- but the track was playing on the slow side all day. However, the final eighth in :14.03, following a fourth-quarter in :26.71, probably made Done Talking's late run look better than it really was.

Nevertheless, let's give some credit to Done Talking for managing to weave his way through traffic to secure a solid victory. Perhaps it wasn't the fastest performance we have ever seen, and perhaps it didn't earn him a very high speed figure, but the winner's purse $300,000 is enough to get him into the Kentucky Derby.

Morgan's Guerrilla ran very well too. The speedy colt was hung wide throughout, but was nevertheless able to open up a clear lead in deep stretch. He briefly looked home free, but Done Talking's late run simply proved too strong to hold off. He should only improve off of this effort.

But perhaps the most impressive performance in the race came from Hakama, who finished third. The usually speedy colt was bumped at the break, causing him to drop back to last. Sixteen lengths behind with three-eighths of a mile to go, Hakama made a seven-wide bid in the stetch to get up for third, beaten just 2 1/4 lengths. He'll be one to keep an eye on in the future.

As for favored Currency Swap, he was bumped hard and hung wide on the turns, which not surprisingly led to him throwing in the towel on the far turn. His eleventh-place finish should probably be forgiven.

Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III)

Trinniberg proved that he may be the best three-year-old sprinter in the country right now when he dominated his rivals in the Bay Shore Stakes. Never really threatened, the speedy colt broke well and went straight to the lead, setting a moderate early pace and finishing fast late to score by three lengths. Hardened Wildcat finished up well despite the slow pace to finish a clear second, 5 1/2 lengths ahead of the third-place finisher. He'll be one to watch in the future, so long as he has a fast pace in front of him.

Comely Stakes (gr. III)

Broadway's Alibi, not surprisingly, triumphed as the favorite in this one-mile event, leading the field from start-to-finish to win by 3 1/2 lengths. The Todd Pletcher-trainee gave the impression of having just a touch of stamina limitations, but she has nevertheless won four straight races and should be tough to beat in any one-turn race filly race in the country. A decision on whether or not she will start in the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) next month is still being made.

Disappointing was Millionreasonswhy, who got a dream trip along the rail, but just didn't finish up like she should have, eventually winding up third. She should improve off of this effort.

Ashland Stakes (gr. I)

Stephanie's Kitten may have been the heavy favorite, but it was Karlovy Vary who took the $500,000 Ashland Stakes (gr. I) in gate-to-wire fashion. The daughter of Dynaformer got off to an excellent start and set a moderate pace of :24.34 and :48.97. From there, the race was hers to lose, and she did not give up her advantage. Hard Not to Like and Stephanie's Kitten attempted to make runs at her in the homestretch, but Karlovy Vary held them off safely to win by three-quarters of a length, with Hard Not to Like finishing second, 1 1/2 lengths clear of Stephanie's Kitten. The final time was 1:44.82.

Other Races of Note

*At Gulfstream Park last Saturday, Todd Pletcher unleashed yet another promising three-year-old maiden in Graydar, a son of Unbridled's Song. The colt was sent off as the third choice in a one-mile maiden special weight, but apparently should have been the odds-on favorite, for he got off to a great start and set a moderate pace before finishing up his final quarter in :24.23 to win by 8 1/2 lengths in the very sharp time of 1:35.78. Seeing that he was never really asked for a serious run, it's hard to imagine just how good this colt might be.

*At Santa Anita Park on April 12th, Achilles brought his record to a perfect 2-for-2 with an impressive victory in a one-mile turf race. After tracking a very moderate early pace of :24.14, :48.89, and 1:13.14, the son of Smart Strike finished up powerfully, with a final quarter in about :22.98, to win by a length while under a long hold late. The American Turf Stakes (gr. II) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard has been mentioned as a possible goal for the Neil Drysdale-trainee.

-Keelerman