1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington He's right on schedule to make his 2012 debut in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on February 19th, which should tell us a lot about him. With his pedigree, I don't expect him to run his rivals off their feet, but we must remember that he did finish a very close third (placed second via disqualification) in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) as a juvenile.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He's been training very well toward a start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), where he will face Algorithms and Hansen in what should be the most exciting prep race thus far. Whether or not he's ready to defeat those two while making his first start of the year is open to debate, but we know he has talent and he should give a good account of himself.
3. Algorithms (Bernardini - Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) Trained by Todd Pletcher
May have turned in the best performance of the young Triple Crown season when he blew the doors off two-year-old champion Hansen in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park. Making his stakes debut, I loved the way he coasted up to challenge Hansen turning for home before leaving him in his dust while giving the impression that something was left in the tank.
4. Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat - Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Eoin Harty
As expected, he skipped the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) to await a start in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) on March 10th. He's been breezing steadily though, with two five-furlong breezes already under his belt since his victory in the Sham Stakes, so he should be fit and ready to roll in March. He'll have to be, seeing that a number of talented colts will be lined up to face him.
5. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Won a 1 1/16th mile allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park in highly impressive fashion, rallying past Take Charge Indy to win by two lengths and earn a Beyer speed figure of 100. Seeing that the runner-up was 13 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher, I think it's clear that both El Padrino and Take Charge Indy are especially good horses. The Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) later this month could be a good potential start for this colt.
6. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
I thought he ran very well in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), rallying strongly along the fence to secure second in a good performance -- better than any he had turned in before. What I particularily liked was the fact that it was his first start on dirt, and perhaps the improved effort was due in part -- or entirely -- to the surface switch. If that is the case, I'm confident that this colt is going to continue improving during the coming months and become one of the major Derby contenders by the time the first Saturday in May rolls around.
7. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He breezed for the first time this year on February 5th, going three-eighths of a mile in :39.88. He is expected to follow a similar path to the Kentucky Derby that Super Saver took in 2010; that being a start in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) followed by a run in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I).
8. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
Was obviously a bit disappointing in the Holy Bull Stakes when he gave way to finish second, but it was his first start of the year and he is certainly eligible to improve next time out. The Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 26h is scheduled to be his next start, so we'll certainly get a good idea of where he is, fitness- and talent-wise, when he squares off against Union Rags and Algorithms.
9. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
His 43-1 upset in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was certainly surprising, but in retrospect, it's clear that he shouldn't have gone off at that price and is probably capable of repeating the effort again. I loved the way that he pressed quick fractions before accelerating away in the stretch to score convincingly.
10. Fed Biz (Giant's Causeway - Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
This colt won himself a lot of fans when he broke his maiden impressively going a mile at Santa Anita, and certainly lost none of them when he backed up that win with a dominating victory in an allowance race yesterday afternoon. After tracking a quick early pace, he still had enough left to close his final eighth of a mile in roughly :12 3/5 to win in 1:34 3/5. I see a graded stakes race in this colt's near future.
11. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
He's missed a bit of training due to a fever, but is supposedly still on track for an expected start in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) next month. Hopefully, he will be back on the work tab soon.
12. Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
I really don't know what to think of his effort in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. In his previous races, he had shown a potent late kick that had carried him to a strong runner-up finish in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), but in the Lewis he showed nothing of the sort while finishing a dull fourth. Hopefully it was nothing more than a fluke performance and he'll get back on the right track in his next start.
13. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Rousing Sermon, this colt really didn't show much in the Lewis while entering off a number of good performances, including a victory in the CashCall Futurity. It must be noted that he did not finish the Lewis Stakes, losing his rider in the stretch after clipping heels, but he wasn't really going anywhere before that happened and was probably on his way to an off-the-board finish as it was. But at least he emerged uninjured, and should be back for the San Felipe Stakes in March.
14. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
He's finally back on the work tab, having breezed a half-mile in :48 3/5 at Santa Anita on February 6th. The San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) could end up being his 2012 debut, and if does turn out to be the case, we should get a pretty good idea of how good he is when he lines up against the likes of Out of Bounds, Empire Way, Midnight Transfer, and possibly Creative Cause, Fed Biz, Rousing Sermon, and Liaison.
15. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Dominated again in Aqueduct's Withers Stakes (gr. III), drawing away powerfully in the stretch to win clearly. My only concern is that he hasn't really shown the ability to throw in one really quick quarter mile to blow the race wide open. He seems to be more of a grinder type, capable of sustaining a good pace for a long time without speeding up or slowing down noticeably at any time.
16. Junebugred (Corinthian - Dixie Melody, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Steve Hobby
He's training well for a run in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) later this month, where he will get a chance to pick up some much-needed graded earnings. The competition should be tougher there than in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but I'm confident that this colt is capable of stepping up and continuing on the road to the Kentucky Derby.
17. Discreet Dancer (Discreet Cat - West Side Dancer, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He missed a workout last week due to a fever, which could cause him to miss his scheduled start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). If he does, then it's hard to say where he will end up racing next. Perhaps the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) in March?
18. Reckless Jerry (Cactus Ridge - Miss Moneywise, by Crafty Prospector) Trained by Kenny Smith
He's breezed only once since his runner-up effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but is nevertheless on track for a rematch with his Smarty Jones conqueror in the Southwest Stakes. With a better trip, he should have a good chance at turning the tables on Junebugred.
19. Ever So Lucky (Indian Charlie - Bally Storm, by Summer Squall) Trained by John Sheppard
I'll be perfectly honest -- I have no idea where to put this colt. He obviously has a great deal of talent, but his pedigree is perhaps a bit suspect for classic distances. In addition, he is entered to race on Saturday in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II), but there is some doubt as to whether or not he is actually going to run. So for now, he stays here in position 19.
20. Stirred Up (Lemon Drop Kid - Summer Delight, by Quiet American) Trained by Bob Baffert
I have debated long and hard over who to include in this twentieth spot, but I've finally decided to be daring and settle on Stirred Up. Trained by Bob Baffert, the colt broke slowly in his only race to date -- a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita -- before closing from far behind to finish second. He's entered in another maiden special weight on Saturday, so we should get a good idea of just how talented he is before too long.
Other Notable Contenders
Afford
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Castaway
Cyber Secret
Done Talking
Fly Lexis Fly
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Transfer
Motor City
Mr. Bowling
Mr. Prankster
My. Adonis
Najjaar
Prospective
Russian Greek
Shared Property
Souper Speedy
Spring Hill Farm
Take Charge Indy
Tetradrachm
Z Dager
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment