As there are so many horses entered between the two divisions, I won't go into my usual detailed analysis of each runner. Rather, I shall instead focus on some of the major contenders and what this race means to them if they should win, in addition to briefly mentioning some longshots that I think could be major players today and down the road. Let's start handicapping!
Southwest Stakes Division #1 (gr. III)
One Mile on the Oaklawn Park dirt track; the race shall start and end at the sixteenth pole.
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Red Jack | Jon Court |
| 2 | Unbridled's Note | Julien Leparoux |
| 3 | Jake Mo | M. Clifton Berry |
| 4 | Majestic Stride | Carlos Marquez, Jr. |
| 5 | Longview Drive | Martin Garcia |
| 6 | Junebugred | Joe Bravo |
| 7 | No Spin | James Graham |
| 8 | Reckless Jerry | Shane Laviolette |
| 9 | Ring It Up | Lindey Wade |
| 10 | Laurie's Rocket | Calvin Borel |
| 11 | Castaway | Rafael Bejarano |
The morning line favorite at 5-2 is Longview Drive, who began his career in northern California for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and has since proven himself to be a capable contender on some of the major racing circuits. The son of Pulpit enters this race off of third-place finishes in both the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) and the Sham Stakes (gr. III). In the latter race, he was beaten just a length by the highly regarded colt Out of Bounds after setting a good pace on the front end. Given the short homestretch of today's race, it wouldn't surprise me if this colt goes to the front end and never looks back en route to an impressive victory.
Junebugred and Reckless Jerry are the leaders of the local contingent, having run 1-2 in the Smarty Jones Stakes here last month. They were separated by just a neck that day, with each horse accomplishing something that the other did not. Junebugred, after a ground-saving trip, burst through a small hole along the rail to secure victory. Reckless Jerry was caught five-wide all the way around the track, yet still managed to close in strongly at the finish. Of the pair, I prefer the chances of Junebugred, but Reckless Jerry is certainly capable of turning the tables if he gets a better trip.
As for Jake Mo, he finished fourth in the Smarty Jones, beaten just 1 3/4 lengths after pressing the pace while three-wide. Breaking from gate three, I can see him securing excellent position early before putting himself right in contention for the win at the top of the stretch.
In addition to Longview Drive, there are two other California shippers that could make their presence felt -- Castaway and Unbridled's Note. The latter colt has only raced once, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 4 1/2 lengths. There are a number of concerns, however, mainly the fact that his maiden race came in October and that he will be making his first start in a route race, not to mention the fact that this is his first start against winners. His talent, however, cannot be questioned.
Castaway is from the barn of Bob Baffert, who has been having a very good week. The son of Street Sense lost his first five starts before breaking his maiden going a mile and a sixteenth last time out over the Santa Anita main track. He displayed excellent speed that day while winning in wire-to-wire fashion, and while this will be his first start against winners, he may just have the talent to be a contender for the win. Unfortunately, he has drawn the far outside post position, which is going to make his task of getting to the lead that much harder.
Of the longshots, I give No Spin the best chance to outrun his odds. The colt ran tenth in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but I'm pretty confident that he is better than that. With the right trip -- not on the lead, but not too far off of it -- I think he could hit the board at a big price.
Here are my selections:
1 Junebugred
2 Longview Drive
3 Reckless Jerry
4 Castaway
And here are J.R.'s:
1 Reckless Jerry
2 Longview Drive
3 Castaway
4 Ring It Up
I could easily pick Longview Drive to win, as he should get a marvelous trip and have every chance at victory in the homestretch. However, this isn't the Santa Anita speedway -- this is Oaklawn Park. While it's possible that Longview Drive will go straight to the front and never look back, there's no denying that such an accomplishment is harder to achieve at Oaklawn then at Santa Anita.
Also, I could easily pick Reckless Jerry over Junebugred, as the former got by far the worse trip in the Smarty Jones and may simply run right by his rival today. However, Reckless Jerry has drawn gate nine, and it's entirely possible that he could wind up just as wide this time around. In addition, I was very impressed by Junebugred's burst of acceleration that got him through the rail hole in the Smarty Jones Stakes, and I have the feeling that this colt has a bit more turn of foot than his rival. In a field of eleven horses, that could prove to be a very valuable asset.
Southwest Stakes Division #2 (gr. III)
One Mile on the Oaklawn Park dirt track; the race shall start and end at the sixteenth pole.
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Z Rockstar | M. Clifton Berry |
| 2 | Adirondack King | Stewart Elliott |
| 3 | Scatman | Luis Quinonez |
| 4 | Apprehender | Inosencio Diego |
| 5 | Chalybeate Springs | Carlos Marquez, Jr. |
| 6 | Pee H Dee | Lindey Wade |
| 7 | Cyber Secret | Channing Hill |
| 8 | King Coral | Martin Escobar |
| 9 | Secret Circle | Rafael Bejarano |
| 10 | Big Wednesday | Ramon Vazquez |
On the surface, the second division of the Southwest appears to be by far the weaker of the two races. However, this may not be the case, as there are a number of lightly raced but promising young runners entered here that bear watching.
However, they're going to have to live up to their promise if they are to defeat Secret Circle, the morning line favorite at even-money. From the barn of Bob Baffert, Secret Circle has won three of his four starts, including the $500,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint last fall. However, when stretched out beyond six furlongs for the first time, he was beaten a half-length by Out of Bounds in Santa Anita's Sham Stakes (gr. III) after tracking the early pace. Granted, he tracked a quick pace that day and was not badly beaten, but once again, one must wonder if he will be able to transfer his front-running Santa Anita form to Oaklawn and still hang around at the finish. I view Oaklawn as a tiring track; horses can set a good pace, but rarely maintain it to the wire. Sprints are rarely won in fast times, and the track record for one-mile is only 1:34 2/5 -- and that was set nearly twenty-six years ago. So while I do believe that Secret Circle is capable of winning this race, I do have my doubts and feel there are a number of horses that could beat him.
First and foremost among those horses is Cyber Secret, a colt I have been keeping an eye on since he broke his maiden last October. Disappointing efforts in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) and an Oaklawn allowance race left me wondering if he really wasn't all that I believed him to be, but he erased those doubts on February 4th when he won a 1 1/16th miles allowance race here at Oaklawn by 5 1/4 lengths. He's got the speed to be in contention early, yet the ability to rate if necessary, so I think he'll be able to secure an excellent trip from gate seven and put himself right into contention for victory.
Aside from those two, I'll be watching to see how Apprehender, Adirondack King, and Scatman perform. The first-mentioned colt has only raced once, breaking his maiden in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight here at Oaklawn on January 26th. He didn't show anything remarkable that day in regards to early speed -- even though he did win the race in wire-to-wire fashion -- but his final fractions were fast and his pedigree suggests that a mile should be within his range, so while his task will not be easy today, I wouldn't count him out.
Scatman could be described as the exact opposite of Apprehender. After breaking his maiden last fall at Keeneland, he returned on January 29th to win a six-furlong allowance race by 3 1/2 lengths. He is the opposite of Apprehender because in his allowance victory, Scatman tracked a blazing early pace before drawing away through slow final fractions to win by 3 1/2 lengths. A son of Scat Daddy, he is bred to get better with distance and should like the stretch out in distance.
As for Adirondack King, he already has some stakes experience under his belt, having won the Christopher Elser Memorial Stakes at Parx Racing, in addition to finishing a good third in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. His lone try at a distance beyond seven furlongs yielded a distant third-place finish going a mile at Penn National last Summer, but this colt has improved a great deal since then and may simply be good enough now to traverse the distance with success.
The other horses would have to step up a great deal to contend for the win here, although Pee H Dee being a factor under the right conditions.
Here are my selections:
1 Cyber Secret
2 Secret Circle
3 Scatman
4 Big Wednesday
And here are J.R.'s:
1 Apprehender
2 Secret Circle
3 Cyber Secret
4 Adirondack King
Being a big fan of Secret Circle in general, I'm going to feel pretty silly if Secret Circle does what The Factor did in the Rebel Stakes last year -- that is, shipping in from California for Baffert and dominating an Oaklawn stakes race in wire-to-wire fashion. But if that happens, so what? I'll be happy to see Secret Circle win a graded stakes race, and if Cyber Secret happens to catch him at he finish, I'll be just as pleased.
Other Races of Note
Actually, forget about the plural form of the word "Race" in the above bold text. There is only one other worth discussing in regards to three-year-old racing action, and -- not surprisingly -- it is being held at Oaklawn.
The final race of the day is a one-mile allowance race, which has drawn a large field of twelve. I don't really have an opinion on the race, but the horses I will be watching are Gameday News, My Silver Bear, Silver Dandy, and Basalt, the latter in particular.
That said, I guess it's time to bring this post to a conclusion. Enjoy the racing, everyone!
-Keelerman
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