1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He drew post position two in tomorrow's Sam Vicente Stakes (gr. II), and is the 3-5 morning line favorite. I don't care if he wins or loses, as long as he's staying on strongly in the homestretch. I just want to see him get something out of this race.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
His training has picked up and he's really starting to get ready for the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). At least he won't have to take on Hansen, who beat him in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I); Hansen is instead pointing toward the Gotham Stakes (gr. III).
3. Algorithms (Bernardini - Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's breezed once since his Holy Bull victory, going a half-mile in :49 1/5 on February 13th. He'll most likely breeze once more before his scheduled start in the Fountain of Youth, which is probably going to be the most exciting prep race of the year thus far.
4. Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat - Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Eoin Harty
We're going to get a real good idea of just how good this colt is when three of the horses he beat in the Sham Stakes -- Secret Circle, Longview Drive, and Handsome Mike -- compete in a trio of graded stakes races this weekend. Should they all win -- whoa.
5. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like stablemate Algorithms, this colt breezed a half-mile in :49 1/5 on February 13th. He'll get a major test on February 25th when he heads to post as the likely favorite in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds.
6. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
This morning, he breezed for the first time since finishing second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, going five furlongs in 1:01 4/5. This is not the kind of colt that is going to blow you away with a blinding turn of foot. This is a colt who is going to just keep coming at you, grinding away and grinding away and grinding away. Distance and maturity will do wonders for this promising colt.
7. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It sounds like the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) on March 17th is going to be his first start of 2012. He's breezed twice following the conclusion of his winter break, most recently going a half-mile in :49.77 on February 13th.
8. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
I really don't know what to think of him now. His defeat in the Holy Bull was certainly disappointing, but it has since been revealed that that he came out of the race slightly sick and that is why he is pointing toward the Gotham on March 3rd rather than the Fountain of Youth on February 26th.
9. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
The talk leading up to the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) will undoubtedly be in regards to whether or not this colt's victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes was a one-time fluke or the new standard for this colt. I'm inclined to believe that the latter is true, and that this colt will be a major contender in the Santa Anita Derby.
10. Fed Biz (Giant's Causeway - Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
Perhaps this colt's dominating allowance victory was overshadowed somewhat by his stablemate Bodemeister's maiden victory two days later, but this colt is undoubtedly farther along in his development and most likely has the better chance at securing the necassary graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby. A stakes race -- possibly the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) -- will most likely be next.
11. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
He breezed this morning for the first time in over a month, going five furlongs in 1:01 4/5. This should keep him on track for the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) next month, where he will likely face some very good horses pointing toward the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I).
12. Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
I've debated just how far to drop this colt off of his dull effort in the Robert B. Lewis -- I've even thought about dropping him off entirely -- but I've decided to wait until his next start before dropping him much farther. Hopefully, that was a flukey poor performance and he will rebound sharply next time out. He'll have to if he is to remain a legitimate Derby contender.
13. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) Trained by Bob Baffert
Got back on the worktab for the first time since losing his rider in the Robert B. Lewis, going a half-mile in a sharp :47 flat on February 15th at Santa Anita. Like Rousing Sermon, I'm going to take a wait-and-see approach before dropping him any lower off of just one poor effort.
14. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
If he does indeed make his three-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), he can't have picked a much tougher spot. But no one can deny that we'll get a real good idea of how talented he is. Breezed a half-mile in :50 3/5 last Sunday.
15. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
It sounds like he's going to skip the Gotham Stakes and instead wait for the Wood Memorial (gr. I) in April. But somewhat surprisingly, he will train for the Wood in Florida. I'm not exactly sure why his connections have chosen to do this, but I'm sure they have a good reason.
16. Junebugred (Corinthian - Dixie Melody, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Steve Hobby
He's definitely drawn into the tougher of the two divisions of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), but if this colt is as talented as I think he is, then it shouldn't really matter. If he wins, expect to see him move up into my top dozen.
17. Discreet Dancer (Discreet Cat - West Side Dancer, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Got back on the worktab on February 13th when he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.90. It looked for a while there as if he would have to miss the Fountain of Youth due to a fever, but this workout indicates that he's back in serious training and should have no difficulties making the race. It's not an easy spot, but he's got the speed and if he can hold off Union Rags and Algorithms, then this colt is going to move up into everyone's top five.
18. Reckless Jerry (Cactus Ridge - Miss Moneywise, by Crafty Prospector) Trained by Kenny Smith
He'll get his rematch against Junebugred in the Southwest Stakes, and if he gets a better trip, he'll have every chance to turn the tables on his Smarty Jones Stakes conqueror. Perhaps his pedigree is biased toward sprints, but he hasn't shown any signs of distance limitations yet, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he performs.
19. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
Broke his maiden with authority on Saturday at Santa Anita, drawing away in the stretch to win by 9 1/4 in the sharp time of 1:34.45. What I really loved about his performance is that he ran every quarter mile in less than :24 seconds, beginning with an opening quarter of :23.09 flat and then following that up with quarters of :23.86, 23.77, and 23.73. He's obviously way behind in preparation for the Kentucky Derby, but the raw talent is clearly there.
20. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
I'm beginning to think it may be a bit silly to have this promising colt so far down on this list, but I guess this is where I'm going to keep him for now. Runner-up to El Padrino in that colt's impressive allowance victory, Take Charge Indy is bred to be a route horse and should have no trouble with the distance of the Triple Crown races. The only question is whether or not he will mature quickly enough to be Derby threat -- the A.P. Indy progeny tend to get better later on in their three-year-old seasons -- but maybe this colt will be the exception.
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Afford
Apprehender
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Castaway
Cyber Secret
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Fly Lexis Fly
Golden Ticket
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Midnight Transfer
Motor City
Mr. Bowling
Mr. Prankster
My. Adonis
Najjaar
Paynter
Prospective
Russian Greek
Scatman
Secret Circle
Shared Property
Souper Speedy
Spring Hill Farm
Tetradrachm
Z Dager
-Keelerman
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