Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the Gulfstream dirt track; starting and ending at the sixteenth pole
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Neck 'n Neck | Shaun Bridgmohan |
| 2 | Algorithms | Carlos Marquez, Jr. |
| 3 | Fort Loudon | Robby Albarado |
| 4 | Casual Trick | Shane Sellers |
| 5 | Discreet Dancer | Ramsey Zimmerman |
| 6 | News Pending | Richard Eramia |
| 7 | Union Rags | James Graham |
| 8 | Csaba | Javier Castellano |
Although this race is full of talent, all eyes will be focused on Union Rags, the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. The brilliant son of Dixie Union had an excellent juvenile campaign, topped by stunning victories in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) and Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II). In addition, he finished second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), beaten just a head despite having to hang wide all the way around the racetrack.
However, there are a few concerns that could make the likely favorite vulnerable. For one thing, this race will be his first start since the Breeders' Cup, and it's unlikely that he is ready to run his best race off of such a long layoff. Also, the horses that finished closest to him in the Juvenile -- winner Hansen and third-place finisher Creative Cause -- have both come back to lose their next starts. The strength of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile field is beginning to come into question, and even though I remain confident that it was a rather high quality renewal of the race, it is something to think about.
Given these obstacles, I don't really expect Union Rags to win this race. I expect him to perform much better in his second start of the year, and even better when the Derby itself rolls around. I see the Fountain of Youth as being more of a tightener than anything else; a mere prep race for bigger races down the road.
That said, I like Algorithms to pull the mild upset. The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Bernardini is a perfect 3-for-3 so far, including a dominating victory last time out in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) over juvenile champion Hansen. Granted, Hansen didn't get the best of trips that day, and Algorithms' performance may have been partly due to the sloppy conditions of the main track, but Algorithms looked really, really impressive in the Holy Bull, and he's got enough speed to put himself in contention early on. He'll also have to prove himself around two turns for the first time, but being by Bernardini, I don't think it will be much of an issue.
Discreet Dancer is the other obvious choice to pull off an upset. Also trained by Todd Pletcher, Discreet Dancer is undefeated in two starts, including a dominating victory in a one-mile allowance race last time out. He did miss a bit of training leading up to this race due to a fever, but he recorded a bullet five-furlong breeze on February 20th and should be ready to roll. He set a 5-1/2 furlong track record here at Gulfstream when he broke his maiden, so we know he's got the speed; stamina and two turns are still questions, but it's very possible that he will go to the front and never look back en route to a decisive victory, much like Soldat did in this race last year.
The other five runners would all be real surprises if they were to win. Casual Trick will likely receive some support, being trained by Nick Zito, but the son of Bernardini was beaten thirty lengths in his last start, a two-turn allowance race here at Gulfstream last month. Perhaps that poor effort was due to the sloppy conditions, but his best race before that was a second-place finish in the Gulfstream Park Derby behind Reveron, who could only manage a third-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. II) next time out. I can see Casual Trick running well enough to hit the board if one of the big three falter, but I feel that -- at this time -- he may be just a bit slower than the top contenders.
Neck 'n Neck has shown enough in the past to warrant consideration for hitting the board as well. A son of Flower Alley, Neck 'n Neck finished second to Discreet Dancer in that one-mile allowance race, beaten soundly 5 1/2 lengths. However, he did encounter a little bit of traffic in that race, and possibly could have made the margin closer if not for that. Next time out, in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), he got an even worse trip, but was still able to finish fifth, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths. He'll be adding blinkers today, which are supposed to help him settle better, so I wouldn't be surprised if this colt outruns his odds and hits the board.
Fort Loudon, News Pending, and Csaba are all 20-1 on the morning line and would need to show some serious improvement to pose a threat for the win. Fort Loudon has had a successful career -- he's earned more money than any horse in this race save Union Rags -- but his last two starts have displayed that he seems to be just a cut below the top contenders. Last time out, he finished fourth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), which actually wasn't all that bad a performance when one considers that he was beaten just 1 1/2 lengths for second. A decent effort wouldn't shock me, but he has been soundly beaten by both Algorithms and Union Rags in the past.
News Pending, from the barn of Dale Romans, has recorded only one victory from six starts, but did finish a good second to the highly promising Exothermic last time out in a nine furlong turf allowance race. On turf, he's displayed a brilliant turn of foot; on dirt, he hasn't really been as good. Perhaps if the early pace is blazing, we could see this colt coming late, but I suspect that he's quite a bit better on the turf and may not care for this track.
Csaba's two victories have come on the main track, albeit a sloppy one, at Calder Race Course, but one could argue that his best performance came on the turf in the Dania Beach Stakes, where he finished fifth -- beaten just 2 1/4 lengths -- after leading in deep stretch. He's shown the versatility to set the pace and close from far off of it, so getting a good trip today shouldn't really be an issue. The only question is whether he is good enough to win a race of this caliber. Seeing that he's bred for the turf, I wouldn't count this one out of being a force later in the year on the grass, but he still needs to prove his ability on dirt.
My selections are:
1 Algorithms
2 Union Rags
3 Discreet Dancer
4 Neck 'n Neck
And here are J.R.'s picks:
1 Discreet Dancer
2 Union Rags
3 Algorithms
4 Fort Loudon
Among the top three, you could really put them in any order and be reasonably confident in picking the winner. This race isn't really about trying to pick the winner as much as it is about watching three super-talented three-year-olds meet up in the biggest prep race of the season so far; seeing which one emerges on top, thus stamping himself in the process as one of -- if not the -- favorite heading to Louisville.
Other Races of Note
At Gulfstream on Sunday . . .
Race 6: This seven-furlong allowance optional claiming event has drawn an intriguing field, led by Todd Pletcher's promising runner Liberty Bound. The son of Mr. Greeley has only made one start to date, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream by an impressive 4 1/4 lengths. I've had my eye on this colt for a while, and am pretty confident that he will bring his record to a perfect 2-for-2 this afternoon. Other colts to watch are The Prize Fighter and Forward March.
At Santa Anita on Sunday . . .
Race 8: The Baffle Stakes, a 6-1/2 furlong down-the-hill turf race, has drawn a large field of nine promising young runners, all of which have shown enough talent in the past to be a contender in this evenly-matched event. Perhaps the most intriguing contender is Brigand, a Bob Baffert-trained colt that finished second in the Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes (gr. III) before going to the sidelines following a fourth-place finish in the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II) in August. Obviously, coming off of such a long layoff is a bit of a concern, but four of his last five works have been bullets and I'm pretty confident that Baffert has him ready to win. Other logical contenders are Stoney Fleece, Smoking G, and Loukas.
-Keelerman
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