Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Santa Anita dirt track
Here are the entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Isn't He Clever | Corey Nakatani |
| 2 | Liaison | Rafael Bejarano |
| 3 | Groovin' Solo | Victor Espinoza |
| 4 | I'll Have Another | Mario Gutierrez |
| 5 | Sky Kingdom | Martin Garcia |
| 6 | Rousing Sermon | Joe Talamo |
| 7 | Empire Way | Joel Rosario |
| 8 | Chips All In | Alonso Quinonez |
As there are several major races to discuss during the course of this post, I won't go into my usual amount of detail in regards to each horse. But here we go!
The favorite is probably going to be Liaison, winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) last December. Trained by Bob Baffert, who has been a major force with three-year-olds on this circuit for years, Liaison has a career record of three wins in four starts and just keeps getting better. In addition, he broke his maiden here at Santa Anita last fall. Expect to see the colt close to the lead early on -- perhaps tracking the pace in third or fourth.
If not for Liaison's neck, then Rousing Sermon would probably be favored here. The colt broke his maiden first time out, then racked up a 3-1-0-1 record in state-bred stakes races, culminating with a decisive victory in the California Cup Juvenile. He then missed by a half-length against Liaison in the Real Quiet Stakes, and again to that rival by a neck in the CashCall Futurity. A later-running colt, he could have some trouble closing over the notoriously speed-favoring Santa Anita main track, but nevertheless, he has a ton of talent and should be coming strong late.
Empire Way is probably in the same boat. The colt broke his maiden sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs at Hollywood Park, the proceeded to run sixth in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes, beaten 3 1/2 lengths, and then fifth in the CashCall Futurity, beaten by just 2 3/4 lengths. Unfortunately, he lacks the necessary early speed to get good position early, and will likely be toward the rear of the pack early on. This will also be his first over a surface other than Hollywood Park's Cushion Track. While I am confident that this colt is going to be a good one further down the line, I doubt he's ready to win a race like this one today.
What about colts that will be on or close to the early lead? I expect to see I'll Have Another and Chips All In setting the early pace together, as both have shown good speed -- as well as an interest in having the lead -- in the past. I'll Have Another finished second in the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II) behind Creative Cause last summer, but bombed in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga and hasn't raced since. Chips All In has won four of his five starts, with his only loss coming by a head. Last time out, he defeated a talented field in the Eddie Logan Stakes going a mile on the Santa Anita turf, but most prove himself over dirt tomorrow.
Isn't He Clever could also be a part of the early pace. The colt has :21-and-change speed, but has been sitting just off of the early pace in his most recent starts. In addition, this will be his first start at a distance beyond 6-1/2 furlongs, and it's possible that his connections will want him to rate off the early lead in an effort to conserve his energy for the stretch. However, if jockey Corey Nakatani chooses to send Isn't He Clever to the lead, I doubt there's a colt in the race that can challenge him early.
Sky Kingdom and Groovin' Solo will probably be mid-pack early on. Sky Kingdom broke his maiden third time out for trainer Bob Baffert before finishing a late-running fourth in the CashCall Futurity. He then came back to win a one mile and a sixteenth allowance race here at Santa Anita by 4 1/2 impressive lengths without any urging at all. Seeing that he is A; proven over the track, and B; proven at this distance, I expect him to be one of the major contenders.
Groovin' Solo also ran in the CashCall Futurity, but was sent off at 87-1 since he had yet to crack the trifecta in two starts. Whether or not he would have been a force in the race was not discovered, for one of his reins broke and the colt was eased. He returned thirteen days later to break his maiden by a half-length over the well-regarded Candy's Jewel in a one-mile Santa Anita maiden special weight, stamping himself as a quality colt in the process. This race will be a major test for the colt, and if he passes, he could become one of the most intriguing Kentucky Derby contenders on the trail.
Here are my selections:
1 Sky Kingdom
2 Liaison
3 Rousing Sermon
4 Chips All In
And here are J.R.'s:
1 Isn't He Clever
2 Liaison
3 Chips All In
4 Sky Kingdom
Withers Stakes (gr. III)
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Aqueduct inner dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Hakama | Julien Pimentel |
| 2 | Speightscity | David Cohen |
| 3 | Swag Daddy | Junior Alvarado |
| 4 | King Kid | Michael Luzzi |
| 5 | How Do I Win | Cornelio Velasquez |
| 6 | Tiger Walk | Horacio Karamanos |
| 7 | Alpha | Ramon Dominguez |
While the Robert B. Lewis Stakes may be a wide-open race, the Withers Stakes has a clear favorite in Alpha, who is even-money on the morning line. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and racing under the blue silks of Godolphin, the colt stamped himself as the early favorite for the Wood Memorial (gr. I) with a decisive 2 1/2 length victory in the Count Fleet Stakes here at Aqueduct last month. While he has shown a tendency to break poorly, he is obviously a highly talented colt and won the Count Fleet despite bobbling at the break. He has received some gate-training since then, which will hopefully correct the problem, but even if he doesn't get the best of breaks tomorrow it's highly posssible that he will win anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if the colt is sent off at lower than even-money tomorrow.
Of the other six runners, How Do I Win and Speightscity were both beaten by Alpha in the Count Fleet, finishing fourth and fifth, respectively. While it's possible that they could show enough improvement to step up and crack the trifecta, they were both soundly beaten in the Count Fleet and I doubt that they will improve enough to defeat Alpha.
King Kid is the 4-1 second choice on the morning line, and enters this race off of a third-place effort in the Gulfstream Park Derby on the first day of the year. However, Casual Trick -- runner-up in the Gulfstream Derby -- returned to run eighth, beaten 30 1/4 lengths, in a Gulfstream Park allowance race last Sunday. Perhaps that was a fluke performance, but it does not bode well Kind Kid's chance in the Withers.
Hakama, 5-1, broke his maiden here on the Aqueduct inner track in December before shipping to Laurel and winning a one-mile and a sixteenth allowance race by just over a length. This is going to be a make-or-break race for this colt. Either he's going to step up, run well, and stamp himself as a Kentucky Derby contender, or do poorly and drop off the trail. To be perfectly honest, I don't know what kind of a performance he's going to turn in, but I do expect to see him on the lead early on.
Tiger Walk and Swag Daddy are the last two colts to discuss. Tiger Walk has won two straight at Laurel, including an allowance optional claiming race in which he closed his final quarter in somewhere around :23 2/5 seconds. Swag Daddy has won half of his six starts, and rides a two-race winning streak into this race that culminated with a dominating 4 1/2 length victory in the state-bred Restrainor Stakes at Aqueduct on the last day of 2011. Trained by Rick Dutrow, the colt has shown the ability to win on the lead or coming from off the pace, which could make him a very dangerous contender here at odds of 10-1.
Here are my picks:
1 Alpha
2 Swag Daddy
3 Tiger Walk
4 Hakama
And here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Tiger Walk
2 Alpha
3 How Do I Win
4 Hakama
Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Tampa Bay Downs dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | State of Play | Alan Garcia |
| 2 | Holy Highway | Angel Serpa |
| 3 | Battle Hardened | Julien Leparoux |
| 4 | Ecabroni | Javier Castellano |
| 5 | Moroccan Brew | Ricardo Feliciano |
| 6 | Neck 'n Neck | Jose Lezcano |
| 7 | Fox Rules | Huber Villa-Gomez |
| 8 | Ravelo's Boy | Jeffrey Sanchez |
| 9 | Burning Time | Leandro Goncalves |
| 10 | Reveron | Luis Contreras |
| 11 | Prospective | Fernando Jara |
As there are eleven horses entered, and this post is getting long enough already, I shan't discuss each and every one. I shall instead briefly mention the colts that I feel will be major contenders.
The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Reveron, winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby last month. However, as I mentioned above, the runner-up in that race, Casual Trick, returned to finish a badly beaten eighth in a Gulfstream allowance race. Once again, it's hard to say if that is an accurate measurement of the quality of the Gulfstream Park Derby -- and thus the qualitry of Reveron -- but it's something to note.
Ecabroni, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, broke his maiden last time out going seven furlongs at Gulfstream Park. But the final time was an unimpressive 1:24.76, with a final eighth in :13.05 after setting a fairly slow pace. In addition, being a son of Smoke Glacken, distance could potentially be a bit of an issue and this race could be just a tad bit too far. There's no denying that this colt is talented, but I'm going to see how he performs here tomorrow before declaring him a serious Kentucky Derby contender.
Neck 'n Neck broke his maiden fourth time out in November at Churchill Downs, then returned to finish second, beaten 5 1/2 lengths, behind Discreet Dancer in a one-mile Gulfstream allowance race. If Discreet Dancer is the budding star that he appears to be, then Neck 'n Neck should be capable of running a winning race here tomorrow.
State of Play is 5-1 on the morning line, but has a lot to overcome. Not only is he making his first start since finishing twelfth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I), he is making his debut on dirt. Trained by Graham Motion and owned by Team Valor International, the son of War Front probably isn't fully cranked for this spot and may need the race, so don't be surprised if he disappoints tomorrow, only to rebound with am exceptional effort second time out.
All of the above-mentioned colts are going to be well-bet, but the colt that I like is the 6-1 shot Prospective. The colt is proven at this distance, has a win over this track, and comes off of an excellent 2012 debut in the Pasco Stakes. I feel that this colt is going to relish this distance and will come charging furiously in the stretch.
One longshot that I like is Burning Time, 12-1 on the morning line. He made an eye-catching move in the Pasco Stakes around the turn before flattening out just a bit to finish fourth. I've got the suspicion that he is going to fire big today while stretching out in distance.
My picks:
1 Prospective
2 Neck 'n Neck
3 Burning Time
4 Ecabroni
J.R.'s picks:
1 Neck 'n Neck
2 Reveron
3 Prospective
4 State of Play
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment