Three major Kentucky Derby prep races entered the history books last week, as the highly-regarded Alpha re-affirmed his quality with a fine victory in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) while I'll Have Another and Battle Hardened were busy pulling upsets in California and Florida. Here are my thoughts on each of these races, as well as the numerous other intriguing lesser races that could very turn out a Triple Crown contender or two. Remember, you can click on the names of some of the stakes races to read a more detailed recap of how the race was run. Enjoy!
Stakes Recaps
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)
Thoughts: In retrospect, one can see that I'll Have Another should not have gone off at 43-1, for he had finished second to grade I winner Creative Cause in the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II) as a juvenile. But, coming off of a five-month layoff and stretching out to a route race for the first time, it was hard to back him as a serious contender. Nevertheless, he tracked a good pace and drew away powerfully in the stretch to win sharply. Liaison, the race favorite, lost his rider in the stretch but really wasn't going anywhere before the incident. Rousing Sermon showed none of his typical closing kick, but perhaps that could be explained by the speed-favoring nature of the Santa Anita maintrack. One horse that I was particularily impressed with was the runner-up Empire Way, who rallied strongly along the fence to finish much the best of the rest. Bred to succeed in route races, I've thought for a while that he is something special and was very pleased by his promising effort.
Withers Stakes (gr. III)
Thoughts: Alpha once again proved that he is much the best of the New York-based Kentucky Derby contenders, bursting clear of the field turning for home and never looking back en route to a decisive victory. He was much better in the starting gate that he has been in the past, breaking cleanly and settling into the fourth position early on before moving up to engage the leaders on the far turn. I thought it was a very professional effort, but the final time was nothing impressive and he did not earn a very big Beyer speed figure. He seems to be more of a grinder type; capable of consistently turning out decent quarter mile fractions, but incapable of throwing in a sudden burst of acceleration to blow the race wide open. His next start is scheduled to be either the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) or the Wood Memorial (gr. I).
Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)
Thoughts: Give credit to Battle Hardened, who accomplished the very rare in breaking his maiden in a graded stakes race. After rating on the rail for much of the race, he shifted to the outside to commence a four-wide bid that carried him to the lead inside the eighth pole. He then sustained his run in good fashion to the wire, eventually winning by 1 1/4 lengths. However, I was more impressed with the runner-up, Prospective, who was hung five-wide around both turns, entered the homestretch six-wide, and appeared to be going nowhere before finding another gear in the stretch and closing furiously to nab Reveron for second. In conclusion, I would pay close attention to where both the winner and runner-up race next.
WEBN Stakes
Thoughts: Heading into this one-mile maintrack event -- the second of three prep races for the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) here in late March -- one of the major questions was whether or not Mr. Prankster, impressive winner of the first prep race in the series, would be able to translate the sprinting talent that saw him dominate the Turfway Prevue Stakes at six furlongs into success in the two-turn WEBN Stakes. He answered that question clearly and completely with a brilliant performance that saw him sweep from dead last to win by 7 1/2 lengths. While the final time and closing fractions may have been a bit on the slow side, take nothing away from the impressiveness of Mr. Prankster's breathtaking performance. It was very, very good.
Other Race Recaps
It may not have been the highest-class race, but I give performance of the week to a maiden claiming winner at Santa Anita Park on February 2nd. Racing seven-furlongs on the main track for a claiming price of $30,000, the favorite at 1.30-1 was a horse named The Black. Yes, The Black, just like the illustrious Black Stallion from the books by Walter Farley. Time will tell if our real The Black is as talented as the storybook superhorse, but he certainly looked the part last Thursday.
Ridden by Rafael Bejarano, the son of Cherokee Run settled into sixth along the rail, just a couple of lengths off of a moderate early pace set by I Know That, Patriotic Lion, and Warren's Wesley, who exchanged the lead back and forth through an opening quarter mile in :22.84 and a half-mile in :45.78. In the meantime, The Black was moving up strongly and split horses on the turn to reach contention in the homestretch. I Know That and Warren's Wesley had given way, leaving Patriotic Lion on the lead. However, he was no match for The Black, who surged up on the outside to take the lead near the eighth pole.
This was where the colt's performance changed from merely that of another claimer breaking his maiden into the effort of a potential superhorse.
In front by a half-length passing the eighth pole, The Black suddenly switched into another gear. Under a hand ride, he absolutely powered away from his rivals, leaving them behind in the blink of an eye. A final eighth of a mile in :11.88 seconds put The Black 11 1/4 lengths in front of the field at the finish, stopping the clock in a highly respectable 1:22.34 while under no urging at all in the final stages.
What made The Black's performance all the more intriguing is that his connections obviously do not consider him to be a low-talent claimer. In fact, they thought highly enough of him to run him in the Eddie Logan Stakes on the Santa Anita turf last December, before he had even won a race. Clearly, Thursday's performance is the kind of effort that his connections have believed him capable of all along, and I have a feeling that this may have been the last time we will ever see The Black in a claiming race.
Moving on, there was a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance optional claiming race at Aqueduct that turned out interesting results. A pair of horses that have been mentioned in previous posts, Two Seventeen and Raconteur, were entered, with Two Seventeen being the odds-on favorite favorite at 0.90-1. At the start, a trio of horses showed interest in the early lead, with Summer Sunset showing the way early on over 87-1 shot Kevin Silverlaspia and Two Seventeen. Raconteur was back in the fourth spot, getting a dream trip as the leaders set a good pace of :23.12 and :47.45.
Rounding the far turn Raconteur moved up to engage the front-runners for the lead, coming into the homestretch three-wide while moving strongly. In the meantime, Two Seventeen had moved past the early leaders and was prepared to meet Raconteur's challenge with everything he had. The two colts locked into combat in early stretch, dueling gamely while seperated by little more than a head. Coming down to the wire, however, Raconteur began to inch away from his rival, eventually hitting the wire three-quarters of a length in front while stopping the clock in 1:42.87. Trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Dogwood Stables, Raconteur is being pointed toward a potential start in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) in early March, or the Wood Memorial (gr. I) in April. In either race he is likely to meet up with the above-mentioned Alpha, which should give us an idea of just how good Raconteur is.
Out at Fair Grounds on Friday, Bourbon Courage turned in an impressive effort to win a six-furlong maiden special weight by 4 1/4 lengths. Ridden by C. J. McHahon and making his first start, the colt broke well and was sent up to duel for the early lead through fractions of :21.85 and :45.45. He then began to draw away from the field, leading by two lengths passing the eighth pole before hitting the well clear of the field while stopping the clock in 1:09.28, a blazingly fast time for the Fair Grounds surface. According to DRF.com leaderboard list of the best Beyer speed figures of 2012 (http://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer), Bourbon Courage's performance earned him a figure of 103, the second-highest awarded to a three-year-old of 2012. Whether or not he will translate his fine sprint form to subsequent success in route stakes races is open to debate, for his pedigree is perhaps biased more toward sprints than routes, but he's certainly one to watch out for in the future.
At Gulfstream Park on Sunday's card, Exothermic brought his career record to a perfect 2-for-2 with a strong victory in a nine-furlong turf allowance optional claiming race. After sitting fifth early on under Manoel Cruz, the colt turned in a strong fourth quarter to put himself into contention for thr win, then edged away from the field while running his final eighth of a mile in roughly :11 3/5 seconds. Also highly impressive was the runner-up News Pending, who was eleven lengths behind with just three-eighths of a mile to go, and still five lengths behind at the eighth pole, before rallying furiously in the final furlong to be beaten just 1 1/2 lengths. By my calculations, he closed his own final eighth of a mile somewhere in the vicinity of :11 seconds flat.
Also on the Gulfstream Sunday card was a one-mile main track maiden special weight event, which was won by the Todd Pletcher-trained Ender Knievel. Sent to the lead after a good break under John Velazquez, the colt led by 1 1/2 lengths at the quarter pole, by 3 1/2 at the eighth pole, and by 7 3/4 at the wire, which he reached in the good time of 1:37.46. A son of Distorted Humor out of the A.P. Indy mare Ender's Sister, distance should not be an issue for this colt. It sounds like the Sunland Derby (gr. III) in late March could be a potential goal for this colt.
The last race I shall discuss in detail was run at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. The event was a one-mile and a sixteenth allowance optional claiming race, in which Ring It Up was the favorite in a field of six. Interestingly, five of the six runners, including Ring It Up, were all coming out of a similar event held at Oaklawn on January 15th, the only difference being that the race last Saturday had a slightly higher optional claiming price.
As it turns out, Ring It Up ran phenomenally well last Saturday. He finished anywhere from 13 to 17 1/2 lengths clear of four of his rivals. However, he did not win the race, for his fifth rival, Cyber Secret, took the race in wire-to-wire fashion while winning by 5 1/4 lengths. In the last paragarph, I mentioned that five of the runners in this race were coming out of a January allowance race. That day, Ring It Up had finished second, 8 3/4 lengths clear of Cyber Secret. However, it is worth noting that Cyber Secret got off to a poor start that day and never got into contention while trying to close from off the pace. Saturday's front-running trip enabled Cyber Secret not only to make up those 8 3/4 lengths on Ring It Up, but put him 5 1/4 lengths clear of that rival, a difference of 14 lengths. The performance stamped Cyber Secret as a serious contender for the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) later this month.
Finally, here are the links to a couple of other race recaps from last weekend:
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/02/three-year-old-to-watch-immaculate.html
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/02/three-year-old-to-watch-burn-mortgage.html
-Keelerman
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