San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)
Seven Furlongs on the Santa Anita dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Let's Get Crackin | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Creative Cause | Joel Rosario |
| 3 | Drill | Martin Garcia |
| 4 | Smoking G | Corey Nakatani |
| 5 | American Act | Martin Pedroza |
| 6 | Captain Obvious | Mario Gutierrez |
Obviously, the heavy favorite on the morning line is Creative Cause. The son of Giant's Causeway had a very successful juvenile campaign, winning the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and Best Pal Stakes (gr. II), in addition to placing in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). Trained by Mike Harrington, it's unlikely that Creative Cause is going to be fully cranked for this race, even though he has been training very well. I see this race more as the first stepping stone toward the Kentucky Derby -- just a little sprint prep to sharpen him up and get him prepared for what's to come. Nevertheless, Creative Cause has so much talent that he can probably win this race despite being at something less than his best. Having Joel Rosario as a rider helps, too.
I believe Creative Cause's most serious opposition will come from American Act, a lightly-raced son of Quiet American facing winners for the first time. Trained by Jack Carava, the colt was sent off at 111-1 in his career debut, where he finished seventh against such promising runners as Hodge, Brother Francis, and Bling Cha Bling. His second start, in which he was sent off at a more reasonable 11-1, yielded a much-improved second-place finish, once again behind Bling Cha Bling. Last time out, he won a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on the Santa Anita main track by two lengths. That victory has come to look even better with time, as runner-up Bodemeister returned last week to break his own maiden by 9 1/4 lengths in a highly impressive effort. Expect to see this colt on the front end early, and if he continues to improve like he has been, I wouldn't be surprised if he manages to pull off an upset.
Drill is the third choice on the morning line, but it's difficult to say just how well he will run. The colt seemed to have a bright future after winning the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) last September over none other than Creative Cause, but after finishing second to that one in the Norfolk Stakes, he has failed to hit the board in four starts. However, he showed signs of returning to form in his last start, making a bold, four-wide bid in the San Pedro Stakes before tiring to finish fifth. A slightly better trip could yield an improved effort by this well-regarded son of Lawyer Ron. In addition, trainer Bob Baffert has been having a very good week, so perhaps his hot streak will continue.
Speaking of the San Pedro Stakes, there is one more horse entered here that is coming out of that race. Let's Get Crackin, who disputed a quick pace in the San Pedro before winding up third, has the early speed to contend here and may just be able to hang on late for a major piece of the purse. It's interesting to note that the San Pedro was by far the best performance of his life, which makes me wonder if it was more of a fluke than anything else, but this is a horse that has had five different trainers during the course of his career, so maybe his current traine -- Craig Dollase -- has simply figured him out better than the others. The blinkers are coming off for today's race.
Smoking G, a son of Smoke Glacken, broke his maiden by a length last time out after finishing second and fourth in his first two starts. The Peter Miller-trainee has never raced on dirt before, but seeing that he has shown speed on turf and synthetic tracks, I wouldn't be surprised if this colt relishes the Santa Anita speedway and goes straight to the front early on. Obviously, he'll have to answer some serious class questions -- like American Act, he is facing winners for the first time -- but the talent it there, and I wouldn't count him out.
The final horse to discuss is Captain Obvious, the longshot on the morning line at 12-1. A son of the Australian-bred stallion Choisir, Captain Obvious began his career in Ireland, where he broke his maiden first time out and placed in a listed stakes race. In the stakes, he closed well from fifth to finish second, beaten just three-quarters of a length in the good time of 1:24 3/5 for seven furlongs. After being sold and sent to the United States, the colt tried his luck in the Real Quiet Stakes, where he broke slowly before winding up fourth, behind such good colts as Liaison and Rousing Sermon. He hasn't raced since then, but the Ben Cecil-trainee will be wearing blinkers for the first time and worked from the gate on February 9th, signaling that his connections may be trying to get him to show more speed.
Here are my selections:
1 Creative Cause
2 American Act
3 Let's Get Crackin
4 Drill
And here are J.R.'s:
1 American Act
2 Creative Cause
3 Drill
4 Captain Obvious
Other Races of Note
Other than the San Vicente, it's really a pretty sleepy day in regards to three-year-old racing action. At Gulfstream Park, there is a 6-1/2 furlong main track maiden special weight which has drawn some interesting first-time starters, including Wise Guy Charlie, Act One Scene One, and Scatter Joy. Oxford Street, eighth in his only race to date, could also be one to watch. I don't really have an opinion as to who will win this race, I'm just mentioning it because I think it could turn out a decent horse or two.
Later on the Gulfstream card, there is a nine-furlong maiden special weight on the turf which has drawn a very large field of sixteen, although at the time I am writing this, five of them have scratched. Irish Sea, from the barn of Chad Brown, is the morning line favorite off of a strong runner-up effort in a one-mile turf maiden special weight earlier in the meet. Also worth watching is Thursby, a half-brother to the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Thursby has three starts so far, with a seventh-place finish being his best effort, but he wasn't too badly beaten last time out and may be able to secure a piece of the purse.
Oaklawn Park has carded a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race, which has drawn a field of seven. Canigotoo is the morning line favorite off of a second-place finish in the Groovy Stakes at Sam Houston last time out. Mighty Monsoon will also be well bet, for although his last effort yielded a poor sixth-place finish in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race, his sprint efforts have been good and he has kept good company throughout his career. Pryce's Posse also bears watching.
The final race I shall mention is on the undercard of the San Vicente. The fourth race of the day, this 6-1/2 furlong downhill turf maiden special weight has drawn a field of nine led by Our Merv, a Mime Mitchell-trainee that finished a close fifth last time out behind San Vicente contender Smoking G in a similar maiden event to this one. Another runner to watch is a first-time starter named Awesome Address, from the barn of John Shirreffs. He probably won't be ready to win first time out, but with Mike Smith in the saddle, he'll be one to watch further down the road.
Enjoy the racing!
-Keelerman
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