Today's post shall cover Saturday's major racing action, including the Risen Star and the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II). Tomorrow's post will include my analysis of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) and the Baffle Stakes at Santa Anita. Enjoy!
Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th Miles on the Fair Grounds dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Afford | Shaun Bridgmohan |
| 2 | Optimizer | Carlos Marquez, Jr. |
| 3 | Mr. Bowling | Robby Albarado |
| 4 | Z Dager | Shane Sellers |
| 5 | Ted's Folly | Ramsey Zimmerman |
| 6 | Adena's Chance | Richard Eramia |
| 7 | Hero of Order | James Graham |
| 8 | El Padrino | Javier Castellano |
| 9 | Mark Valeski | Rosie Napravnik |
| 10 | Shared Property | Leandro Goncalves |
| 11 | Tizanezpense | Miguel Mena |
The morning line favorite at 2-1 is El Padrino, but don't expect him to go off at anywhere near those odds. If he isn't sent off as an odds-on favorite, I will not know why. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Pulpit showed a great deal of promise as a juvenile, breaking his maiden by 12 3/4 lengths before finishing a close third, beaten just three-quarters of a length, in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II). He began his 2012 campaign with a brilliant victory in a one-mile and a sixteenth allowance race at Gulfstream Park, which he won by two lengths over the talented colt Take Charge Indy, who was in turn nearly fourteen lengths clear of the third-place finisher. For the victory, El Padrino received a Beyer speed figure of 100 -- 13 points higher than the best number turned in by any of his competitors. He's got enough speed to be up close early, and a potent late kick as well, so I fully expect this colt to dominate here. The only question is whether he can transfer his muddy-track form -- over which his allowance victory came -- to a fast track, but I doubt it will be any issue.
Second choice on the morning line at 4-1 is the Larry Jones-trained entry of Mr. Bowling and Mark Valeski. The first-mentioned colt is coming off of a head victory in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III), the local prep for this race. Many people -- including myself -- feel that the second- and third-place finishers in the LeComte had worse trips, but no one can deny the fact that Mr. Bowling held them both off in game fashion and perhaps displayed the best turn of foot as well. I also think that Jones will have this colt prepared to run even better than he did for the LeComte, seeing that Mr. Bowling did record a bullet five-furlong work on February 20th.
As for Mark Valeski, he only has three starts under his belt, and only once since September 2011, but that one was an excellent victory in a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event here at Fair Grounds on January 13th, which he won by a length over the good colt Radiant Talent. Granted, he will be racing beyond six furlongs for the first time today and his pedigree is perhaps slanted toward sprint distances, but there's no denying that he has talent and if he doesn't get hung too wide around the turns, he could be a major contender.
Z Dager and Shared Property, the 2-3 finishers in the LeComte, may end up being sent off at lower odds than their LeComte conqueror, due strictly to the trips that these two received in that race. Z Dager saved ground all the way around, but was forced to wait behind horses in the stretch before launching his bid just a little bit too late. Shared Property might have run even better, as he was caught wide on both turns before closing sstrongly to be beaten just a half-length. A wide trip for Shared Property could be in the making again, as he has drawn gate ten, but even a slightly better trip should be enough to put him in contention for the win.
Ted's Folly, Adena's Chance, and Hero of Order all ran in the LeComte as well, finishing ninth, tenth, and fifth, respectively. Ted's Folly had won six straight races at Remington Park prior to the LeComte, but after making a decent mid-race move to put himself within a few lengths of the lead, he flattened out badly to finish 7 1/2 lengths behind the winner. Adena's Chance showed very little in the LeComte, but did coime back to turn in the best performance of his career in a six-furlong allowance race here at Fair Grounds just two weeks ago, being beaten just a half-length in a very strong effort. As for Hero of Order, he ran very well in the LeComte to be beaten just 4 1/4 lengths, and has since returned to finish a strong third in the same allowance race in which Adena's Chance finished second.
Afford has some experience over the Fair Grounds strip, having won an allowance race here last time out and finished third in the Sugar Bowl Stakes last year, but is taking a serious step up in class and may have a bit of trouble securing a good trip from gate one. Nevertheless, the son of Street Sense is bred to go long and will have no trouble with today's distance.
Optimizer is shipping in from Oaklawn Park, where he is coming off of a dull sixth-place effort in the Smarty Jones Stakes. As a juvenile, he placed in the grade I Breeders Futurity, as well as the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II), but the son of English Channel may be better on turf on synthetic and could find himself in deep waters today. On the other hand, he should relish the long Fair Grounds homestretch and he's been training as well as anybody, so maybe he'll turn in an improved effort today.
This brings us to Tizanexpense, a son of (who else!) Tiznow that has drawn the far outside post position. Trained by Michael Maker, the colt has won his last two races -- both of them coming here at Fair Grounds -- including a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance optional claiming race. Like several of the other runners here, he is taking a major step up in class, but he has enough talent to warrant consideration at least for hitting the board.
My selections are:
1 El Padrino
2 Shared Property
3 Mark Valeski
4 Tizanexpense
J.R.
1. Optimizer
2. Afford
3. El Padrino
4. Shared Property
Other Races of Note
There are countless numbers of allowance, maiden special weight, and maiden claiming races for three-year-olds carded across the country for this Saturday alone -- too many races to even briefly mention them all. So I shall merely point out some of the races I will be watching especially closely for one reason or another, and if any of the other races turn out promising winners, I'll be sure to post the results.
At Gulfstream on Saturday . . .
Race 7: This 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race on the turf has drawn a large field of fourteen, including two also-eligibles. The morning line favorite is Our Entourage, from the barn of Todd Pletcher. The son of Street Cry finished fifth in a pair of stakes events as a juvenile, including a strong effort in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II), where he was beaten just two lengths. Other logical contenders are Gold Megillah, who has actually never won a race on turf but has run very well over it in the past; Argentine Tango, third behind El Padrino and Take Charge Indy in a recent main track allowance race; Film Shot, wire-to-wire winner of a one-mile turf maiden special weight here at Gulfstream; and Africanist, who will run only if the race is switched to the main track, in which case he might even be sent off as the favorite.
Race 11: A pair of highly promising three-year-old fillies will make their 2012 debuts in the 1 1/16th miles Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) over the Gulfstream main track. The narrow morning line favorite at 9-5 is Grace Hall, who won the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) last year in addition finishing second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I). Trained by Anthony Dutrow, she's been training well for this race, but may need to get a race or two under her belt before returning to her sharpest form. Disposablepleasure ended her juvenile camapign in stunning fashion, winning the nine-furlong Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct by a head despite stumbling badly at the start. She had previously broken her maiden by eleven lengths in wire-to-wire fashion, signaling that we may see her on or near the lead today. With four five-furlong breezes in preparation for this race, I expect Disposablepleasure to be a major contender for the win.
At Fair Grounds on Saturday . . .
Race 7: The 1 1/16th miles Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) has drawn Believe You Can and Summer Applause, the 1-2 finishers in the Silverbulletstakes here at Fair Grounds last month. In the Silverbulletday, Believe You Can was able to set moderate fractions on the front end before holding off a rallying Summer Applause to win by 1 1/2 lengths. Seeing that Believe You Can could face early pace pressure today from Avie's Sense, I think that Summer Applause is going to have every chance to turn the tables here today.
At Aqueduct on Saturday . . .
Race 9: The Busher Stakes, a 1 1/16th miles event for three-year-old fillies, has drawn a fascinating field of seven, led by Lisa T. and Sweet Seventeen. The latter filly has finished first or second in all four of her starts, including a neck less in the Busanda Stakes here at Aqueduct last month. She possesses enough early speed to contend here early, and should prove difficult to catch in the stretch. Lisa T. is coming off of a third-place finish in Aqueduct's Dearly Precious Stakes just two weeeks ago, in which she closed well from off the pace in a four-horse field to be beaten three lengths in the six-furlong race. Seeing that she had previously broken her maiden going a mile, the distance of today's race should prove to be no issue for the promising half-sister to Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Super Saver.
At Sunland Park on Saturday . . .
The $150,000 Borderland Derby, a major prep for the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) here in March, has drawn an intriguing field of seven led by Santa Anita shippers Isn't He Clever and Zackn'mat. Isn't He Clever won the Riley Allison Futurity here at Sunland last December, coasting to a ridiculously easy 11 3/4 length victory, before running fifth in Santa Anita's Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), in which he was placed fourth via disqualification. It's difficult to say whether it was the step up in class or the step up in distance -- the Robert B. Lewis was run at 1 1/16th miles, the Riley Allison Futurity at 6-1/2 furlongs -- that got him beat in the Lewis, but regardless, he's got the talent to be a major contender in the Borderland Derby and should be tough to catch on the front end. As for Zackn'mat, he lost his first three races -- although against some very good horses -- before breaking through with a convincing victory in a seven-furlong maiden special weight last time out at Santa Anita. He doesn't have the early speed of Isn't He Clever, but he appears to possess a potent late kick, and if Isn't He Clever finds himself leg weary in the final eighth of this race, expect Zackn'mat to be flying late.
-Keelerman
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