This week's Triple Crown Countdown post shall actually be split into three parts. The first part, which you are reading, shall cover Saturday's racing action, including the El Camino Real Derby. In part II we shall take a look at Sunday's major races, and the final part shall cover the Southwest(s). Enjoy!
El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)
Nine Furlongs on the Golden Gate Fields synthetic track
Here are the entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Daddy Nose Best | Julien Leparoux |
| 2 | Senor Rain | Kevin Krigger |
| 3 | Cahill Chrome | Juan Hernandez |
| 4 | Russian Greek | Aaron Gryder |
| 5 | Unveiled Heat | Frank Alvarado |
| 6 | Lucky Chappy | Alan Garcia |
| 7 | Handsome Mike | Corey Nakatani |
| 8 | Rockinarz Recruit | Abel Cedillo |
| 9 | All Squared Away | Kerwin John |
| 10 | Lady of Fifty | Russell Baze |
The morning line favorite is Russian Greek, from the barn of Jerry Hollendorfer. A son of Giant's Causeway, the colt has won three of his four starts to date, including the local prep for this race, the California Derby. A late-running type, don't expect to see him anywhere near the lead early on, but he should nevertheless be flying home late so long as the early pace is moderately quick. He also seems to be training better than he was leading up to the California Derby.
Hollendorfer has another serious contender in this race as well, that being the filly Lady of Fifty. Like Russian Greek, she has won the majority of her races, with her only loss in five starts coming in an allowance race last October. Since then, she has rattled off three consecutive stakes victories, including the California Oaks last time out, which she won by 3 1/4 lengths. Unlike Russian Greek, she prefers to race on the lead -- which she could have trouble doing, since she will have to break from gate ten. But regardless of that, she's not one to give up easily and should be a legitimate threat for the win.
Lucky Chappy ships in from Florida for trainer Graham Motion and will likely be well bet. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this promising son of High Chaparral goes off as the favorite. Owned by Team Valor International, the colt began his career in Italy, where he compiled a record of two wins and a second from three starts. Since coming to the United States, he has raced three times -- never winning, but always finishing well from off the pace. Last time out, he finished a good second to stablemate Howe Great in the Kitten's Joy Stakes at Gulfstream Park, a race in which he broke slowly and chased a slow pace. But that was his first start of the year, and he should be much sharper in this spot. The only question is whether he will handle the synthetic track, as all of his previous races have come on turf. But I doubt it will prove to be an issue.
Daddy Nose Best is another turf horse trying to translate his grass form to a synthetic surface. From the barn of Steven Asmussen, the son of Scat Daddy has been keeping good company, finishing third in the Summer Stakes (gr. III) and sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) before taking a one-mile turf allowance race at Churchill Downs in good fashion. But he performed poorly last time out, finishing a dull fifth in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita. If he runs back to his best form he can be a threat here, the question: is will he or won't he?
Handsome Mike is 6-1 on the morning line, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he wins. In fact, I think I may pick him to win. Trained by Doug O'Neill, the son of Scat Daddy has been competing in Southern California all of his life, finishing second in the Generous Stakes (gr. III) on the Hollywood Park turf and seventh, beaten just three-quarters of a length, in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) on Hollywood's synthetic main track. His last effort -- a fourth place finish in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) -- wasn't visually impressive, but his Beyer speed figures pretty much tower over anyone of his rivals in this spot, and I like the fact that he will be wearing blinkers this time. I expect to see him on the lead early before kicking clear to win in gate-to-wire fashion.
Cahill Chrome, Senor Rain, and Unveiled Heat are all coming off of beaten efforts in the California Derby behind Russian Greek, where they finished second, third, and fifth, respectively. Obviously, they are all going to have to step up to be a threat for the win in this tough spot, but I wouldn't count any of them out of hitting the board, Senor Rain especially.
Rockinarz Recruit broke his maiden in highly impressive fashion two back, coasting to a five-length victory going six furlongs at Golden Gate in 1:09 3/5, but subsequently finished a distant third in a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event at Santa Anita. He will probably run better now that he is returning to Golden Gate, but it's going to be difficult to win a race of this caliber while stretching out for the first time. Talented? Yes. Pace factor? Definitely. Win threat? Hard to say.
The final runner to discuss is All Squared Away, who is facing winners for the first time, having just broke his maiden last time out in his fifth start. Trained by Peter Miller, the colt lost his first four starts in sprint races before stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth, which yielded a solid one-length victory, but in the slow time of 1:47 1/5. He's proven at the distance, but he may simply be a bit on the slow side.
Here are my selections:
1 Handsome Mike
2 Lucky Chappy
3 Russian Greek
4 Lady of Fifty
As well as J.R.'s:
1 Lucky Chappy
2 Senor Rain
3 Handsome Mike
4 Russian Greek
Somewhat surprisingly, while we both like Russian Greek in general, neither of us picked the well-regarded morning line favorite to win. So I guess we'll both feel pretty silly if Russian Greek rallies to victory!
Other Races of Note
At Santa Anita on Saturday . . .
Race 2: This one-mile turf allowance race originally drew a field of six, but the scratch of Smoking G has reduced the field to a well-matched group of five. The two I will be watching closest are Cloud Hopper and Unusual Heatwave. The first-mentioned colt lost his first four starts, while keeping very good company indeed, before breaking through with a victory in a one-mile turf maiden special weight on January 16th. What I loved about his performance is that he was able to track a pretty quick pace before displaying an excellent turn of foot that carried him to a 1 1/4 length victory. As for Unusual Heatwave, he too lost his first four starts before finding the winner's circle. The difference was that Unusual Heatwave's first triumph came in a 6-1/2 furlong down-the-hill turf race at Santa Anita. He subsequently returned to finish second in a similar allowance race. He'll be stretching out in distance, but he ran this far twice last year and may have improved enough since then to be a serious win threat in this spot.
Race 5: This 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight, to be run on the main track, has drawn a number of promising first-time starters, including two from the barn of Bob Baffert. One of Baffert's colts in particular, named Paynter, has caught my eye. The son of Awesome Again has been training just beautifully at Santa Anita, most recently working six furlongs in 1:11 3/5 from the gate on February 11th. Other names to keep an eye on are Spring Warrior, Mucho Macho Mark, and Whinston.
Race 6: Another maiden special weight, this one is for fillies going six furlongs on the main track and has drawn a number of interesting runners. Flashy Dame and Hidinginplainsight are the two morning line favorites, and both are coming off of runner-up efforts against similar company. Hidinginplainsight especially bears watching, for last time out she finished second to the very highly-regarded filly Princess Arabella. A victory by Hidinginplainsight would further cement Princess Arabella's status as a top contender for the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I). One other filly to keep an eye on here is the Bob Baffert first-time starter Mamma Kimbo.
At Gulfstream Park on Saturday . . .
Race 8: A one-mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight on the main track, this race includes a number of intriguing, lightly-raced contenders, led by the Todd Pletcher-trained Windsurfer. The colt finished second last time out in a similar event last month, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths despite a poor break. Seeing that he was 8 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher, I'm pretty confident that he will emerge on top in this spot. Monarchic, second last time out to Quick Wit in a 7-1/2 furlong maiden special weight, also looks promising.
At Oaklawn on Saturday . . .
Race 6: Yet another maiden special weight, this one-mile and a sixteenth event has drawn a field of seven, led by the 3-2 morning line favorite Downtown Ghost. The colt actually "won" his only start to date by four lengths, under identical conditions to Saturday's race, but was disqualified for impeding runner-up Gameday News in the stretch. He looks ready to break his maiden for keeps this time around.
At Fair Grounds on Saturday . . .
Race 9: To be perfectly honest, there is only one horse that interests me in this one-mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight, that horse being Tetradrachm. The colt broke his maiden in a close finish last time out at Fair Grounds, gamely holding off challenges from Proper Empire and Sir Bond to win the mile and a sixteenth race in good fashion. The Louisiana Derby (gr. II) has been mentioned as a potential goal for this colt, so I will be watching closely to see how he performs on Saturday. In addition, Sir Bond returned to break his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths on Thursday.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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