1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
I thought that his third-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) was actually a very good effort, and exactly what it needed to be. In a race really too short for him, Creative Cause settled off the pace, put in a good stretch run to be beaten just a length, and closed his final eighth of a mile in about :11 4/5. This should sharpen him up considerably for his next race, which could come in either the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) or the Rebel Stakes (gr. II).
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He's drawn gate seven in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II), where we should get an excellent idea of just how good he is. To be perfectly honest, as good a colt as I think Union Rags is, I expect him to lose the Fountain of Youth. He's not going to be fully cranked for the race, and he's facing a pair of promising runners from the barn of Todd Pletcher. So if he does overcome these obstacles and wins anyway, I'll be moving him to the top of my list and declaring him one of the most promising Kentucky Derby contenders in recent years.
3. Algorithms (Bernardini - Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) Trained by Todd Pletcher
This colt is one of those promising Pletcher runners scheduled to take on Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth. He's still got a couple of questions to answer -- he'll be racing around two turns for the first time, and he must prove that his Holy Bull victory was not a sloppy-track fluke -- but I'm inclined to say that he will be our Fountain of Youth winner.
4. Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat - Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Eoin Harty
The quality of the Sham Stakes (gr. III), which this colt won back in January, was vindicated when Sham runner-up Secret Circle returned to win the second division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) with a Beyer of 102. So if you liked Out of Bounds before the Southwest Stakes, you really have to like him now.
5. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
His next major test will come later today in the Risen Start Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds, where he will attempt to pick up some graded stakes earnings. Like Algorithms, some have questioned whether his big allowance victory was due more to the sloppy track than anything else, but I believe he's just as good on a fast track and that he will prove it with a dominating victory.
6. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
Being a stablemate to Creative Cause, it's very possible that he is going to run whereever Creative Cause does not. If the latter goes for the Rebel Stakes, this colt will stay home for the San Felipe, and vice versa. I expect this colt to take another step forward next time he runs, whereever that may be.
7. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
The Rebel Stakes seems to have been confirmed as this colt's 2012 debut, which certainly won't be an easy spot if he has to meet up with the likes of Creative Cause and Secret Circle. But he won't have to win to stamp himself as a major Derby contender -- all he has to do is get back on the track and get a race under his belt.
8. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
He won't be facing a small field in the Gotham, as a dozen horses may end up going to post with him, including -- among others -- My Adonis and Consortium, both of whom Hansen beat in the Holy Bull last month. It sounds like his connections are going to try and get him to relax just off the pace, in order to discover if they have a one-dimensional front runner or a more versatile colt that can sit off the lead before pouncing in the stretch. If Hansen succeeds in employing a new running style in the Gotham, it could make him a much more dangerous contender of the Kentucky Derby than anyone originally suspected.
9. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
There's not going to be a whole lot to say about this colt for a while, as he won't be racing again until the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) in April. On February 23rd, he breezed for the first time since his Robert B. Lewis victory, going a half-mile in a moderate :48 3/5.
10. Fed Biz (Giant's Causeway - Spunoutacontrol, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
Breezed an easy six furlongs in 1:16 flat on February 22nd; not your usual quick work from a Bob Baffert Derby contender, but it was nevertheless a good first workout since his brilliant allowance victory. The San Felipe Stakes is currently scheduled to be his next start.
11. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
Breezed five furlongs in a bullet :59.25 this morning at Gulfstream Park, signaling that he is getting seriously ready for his expected 2012 debut in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) in March. It seems like not many people have this colt on their radar as a serious Derby contender, but I certainly do.
12. Castaway (Street Sense - Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
Secret Circle may have run considerably faster in his division of the Southwest, but Castaway looked a whole lot more like a Derby contender. Secret Circle was tiring noticeably in the stretch, but Castaway looked like he was just beginning to roll. I can't wait to see where this colt runs next.
13. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
Worked five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 at Santa Anita on February 19th, which I consider to be his best breeze since returning to the work tab earlier this month. It will be interesting to see which running style he employs in the San Felipe -- the off-the-pace style that saw him secure victory in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), or the pace-tracking style that he used with success in the Garden State Stakes at Monmouth Park?
14. Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
As much as I don't want to drop this colt off my list, it seems like he just keeps inching closer and closer to the bottom as other horses step up and win big races in impressive fashion. I'm just hoping that his poor effort in the Robert Lewis was a fluke, and that he will return to his usual next time out.
15. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He hasn't breezed since winning the Withers Stakes (gr. III) at the beginning of this month, but I guess that's not surprising, considering he's not scheduled to race again until the Wood Memorial (gr. I) in April. He'll likely face much tougher opposition in the Wood than he has in the Withers and Count Fleet Stakes, so we should get an idea prior to the Kentucky Derby as to just how good this colt is.
16. Discreet Dancer (Discreet Cat - West Side Dancer, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He has passed the talent and speed tests. He is also undefeated. Tomorrow, he faces the class test when he takes on Union Rags and stablemate Algorithms in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). While I am currently leaning toward saying he'll get caught in the stretch, I certainly will admit that this lightly-raced colt has the early speed to take the race in wire-to-wire fashion and stamp himself as one of the major favorites heading to Louisville.
17. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) Trained by Bob Baffert
He breezed a slow mile on February 22nd at Santa Anita, getting the distance in 1:43 flat. Hopefully, that was by design, but I would have liked to see a little more from him, what with the Derby just ten weeks away and his next prep race coming up soon.
18. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
Baffert has stated that this colt's next race will come against stakes company, so I imagine that this colt's connections are serious about trying to pick up the needed graded earnings to make the Derby field. He's obviously a bit behind in seasoning, but the talent is there -- no doubt about it.
19. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
I'm starting to wonder what's going on with this colt, as he hasn't breezed since finishing second to El Padrino in an allowance race on January 29th. Hopefully, there's nothing wrong with him, and he'll be back on the work tab soon.
20. My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) Trained by Kelly Breen
I got to thinking that it was a bit silly to not have this horse in my top twenty, considering that he was only beaten a half-length by Hansen in the Holy Bull, despite being twenty lengths behind him halfway through the race. He's scheduled to face Hansen again in the Gotham, so it should prove interesting to see how far apart they are at the finish of that race.
I have excluded Scatman and Secret Circle from this list for the time being, not because I deny that they have talent, but simply because I suspect their abilities to successfully traverse a mile and a quarter on the first Saturday in May.
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Afford
American Act
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Cyber Secret
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Fly Lexis Fly
Holy Candy
Junebugred
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Midnight Transfer
Motor City
Mr. Bowling
Mr. Prankster
Najjaar
Paynter
Prospective
Reckless Jerry
Scatman
Secret Circle
Shared Property
Souper Speedy
Spring Hill Farm
Tetradrachm
Z Dager
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment