Nevertheless, this week's feature race shall be the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park, the lone graded stakes event for three-year-olds carded for the next two days.
Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II)
Seven Furlongs on the Gulfstream Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Tarpy's Goal | Javier Castellano |
| 2 | Wildcat Creek | Angel Serpa |
| 3 | Thunder Moccasin | John Velazquez |
| 4 | Quick Wit | Ramon Dominguez |
| 5 | Il Villano | Elvis Trujillo |
| 6 | Ever So Lucky | Julien Leparoux |
I'm somewhat surprised that Ever So Lucky is not the morning line favorite. That honor went to Thunder Moccasin, a Todd Pletcher-trainee that broke his maiden impressively first time out by 2 1/2 lengths. Owned by Starlight Racing, the son of A.P. Warrior defeated a number of quality colts that day, as the second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers have all come back to win their next starts. I have the feeling that this colt could be something very special, and will be watching with interest to see how he does.
There are a number of reasons why Ever So Lucky -- despite being a well-regarded Kentucky Derby contender -- is not the morning line favorite here. First off, he is making his first start since late November 2011. Secondly, his training hasn't been all that spectacular -- good, but not stunning. Finally, there is some doubt as to whether or not he will actually run, as his trainer is considering giving his colt another month before sending him out for his three-year-old debut. Nevertheless, in his two starts last year, Ever So Lucky showed that he has a great deal of talent and will be a force to be reckoned with further down the road.
Il Villano won a pair of sprint stakes events at Parx Racing last year, then finished a game third in his two-turn debut behind Alpha in the Count Fleet Stakes. Returning to a one-turn sprint, it wouldn't surprise me if Il Villano runs them off their feet early and hangs on late. However, I am also confident that Thunder Moccasin is capable of going with this colt early, which could make the race very interesting indeed.
Tarpy's Goal has lost five of his seven starts, but is entering this race off of a sharp win in a seven-furlong Gulfstream allowance race on January 21st, in which he tracked the early lead before drawing away to a convincing score in 1:23.46. He's coming back quick, but others are coming back quicker; we know he's got the speed, but he'll be tested seriously for class tomorrow.
Wildcat Creek is entering off a pair of runner-up efforts in sprint stakes events at Tampa Bay Downs, including the Pasco Stakes behind a well-regarded runner in Prospective. Like many of the other colts in this race, Wildcat Creek possesses a good deal of early speed and should be right up close to the pace early on.
The last horse in the field is Quick Wit, from the barn of Dale Romans. After losing his first two starts, he stepped up and broke his maiden impressively at the unusual distance of 7-1/2 furlongs, coasting home a winner by three lengths on January 28th at Gulfstream Park. He's coming back off of just two weeks rest, but he's the only horse in the race that hasn't shown a serious interest in having the early lead, which could benefit him greatly if the early pace is quick.
Assuming that Ever So Lucky runs, here are my picks:
1 Thunder Moccasin
2 Quick Wit
3 Ever So Lucky
4 Il Villano
And here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Quick Wit
2 Il Villano
3 Wildcat Creek
4 Thunder Moccasin
Other Races of Note
As I mentioned above, there is an unbelieveable number of fascinating maiden and allowance races scheduled to be run over the next few days. So rather than delve into a great amount of detail on each one, I shall instead give a brief look into each one while pointing out the horses I will be watching closely.
At Gulfstream Park on Saturday . . .
Race 2: A seven-furlong maiden special weight, the morning line favorite -- as well as the colt I will be watching cloeset -- is Z Vilna, a Todd Pletcher-trained runner that finished second in his debut after stumbling at the start. John Velazquez will be aboard the son of Unbridled's Song, who should be prepared to run even better in his second career start. I also expect the Bill Mott-trained Desert Storm to run well, as well as the first-time starters Morgan's Guerrilla and Rum Rum Tugger.
Race 3: Todd Pletcher appears to hold a good hand in this event as well, with favored Spring Hill Farm and the grade I-placed Big Blue Nation among the favorites in the one-mile allowance optional claiming race. Spring Hill Farm, a son of Smart Strike, broke his maiden in wire-to-wire fashion going seven furlongs at Gulfstream over Quick Wit, whom I discussed above in regards to the Hutcheson Stakes. It was a highly impressive performance that stamped him as a quality colt that could be a force in major stakes races further down the road. Big Blue Nation ran third in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last September, but hasn't raced since then and probably needs to get this race under his belt before he returns to top form. Unbridled Minister and Space Race should also be watched.
Race 4: Another seven-furlong maiden special weight, this event doesn't feature any particular stand-out horse, but nevertheless there are a number of intriguing contenders. Rise Against is the morning line favorite off of a runner-up effort to Ecabroni in a similar event to this one, but Ecabroni came back to run last in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), which raises into question just how good he and Rise Against are. If Rise Against fails, expect one of Pletcher's two entries -- Umstead and Majestic Number -- to be right there at the finish. Nick Zito also has an entry, that being the first-time starter Arkansas Joe, but Zito's runners don't usually break their maidens first time out and this colt will probably need a couple of races under his belt before finding the winner's circle.
Race 5: A one-mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight on the turf, Todd Pletcher looks to have a pretty good chance at winning this race as well. His colt Bridge Loan is the second choice on the morning line off of a strong fourth-place finish in his last race under similar conditions to this event. However, the favorite will probably be Golden Ticket, who finished three-quarters of a length clear of Bridge Loan last time out and figures to be closing strongly from off the pace.
At Santa Anita on Saturday . . .
Race 3: Where I do begin? This one-mile maiden special weight has drawn an extraordinary number of promising maidens, led by Welter Weight, Stirred Up, and Bodemeister. Welter Weight, trained by Steve Asmussen, finished second in his debut sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs, beaten 7 1/2 lengths by runaway winner Consulado. I thought that he ran very well, finding his way through traffic to secure second with a late run, and he strikes me as a colt who will get better with distance. But I also really like the chances of Stirred Up, a son of Lemon Drop Kid from the barn of Bob Baffert who finished second in his debut despite breaking poorly and winding up last by a long ways early on in the seven-furlong event. Stretching out to a mile tomorrow, he should be coming on strongly late and I have the feeling that he may be something extra special. Bodemeister finished second in his debut one month ago and should be right up near the early lead.
At Aqueduct on Saturday . . .
Race 4: The Dearly Precious Stakes for three-year-old fillies going six furlongs has drawn a small, evenly-matched field of five led by Well Kept and Singlet. The former has finished in the top three in all five of her starts, including a pair of runner-up efforts in the Ruthless and Pandera Stakes. In the Ruthless, she chased a runaway winner in Agave Kiss all the way around the racetrack before finishing clearly best of the rest. As for Singlet, she has won three of her four starts, including an allowance race and a starter allowance race leading up to the Dearly Precious. From the barn of Anthony Dutrow, she too could prove a major threat for the win. Corderosa, the third-place finisher from the Ruthless, should also be watched.
Race 5: This one-mile and seventy-yard maiden special weight features a wide-open field of young runners, of which Sporting Gent, Big Creek, Quorum, and Five Sixteen are the ones I will be watching. The latter colt is coming off of a narrow loss in a nine-furlong maiden special weight to Raconteur, who has since found the winner's circle again in an allowance race. Big Creek, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, set the pace in a one-mile and a sixteenth allowance race at Gulfstream Park before tiring to finish third. Expect to see him up on the early pace. Sporting Gent and Quorum finished second and third last time out on January 15th in an identical maiden special weight to this one, and both figure to be serious contenders here today.
Race 9: Swag Daddy looks like the one to beat in the $75,000 Sweet Envoy Stakes for New York-bred runners. A versatile colt, capable of winning from on or off the pace, Swag Daddy was actually entered to run in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) last Saturday but scratched due to a minor foot issue. I think he'll prove decisively best here tomorrow. Pretension, first or second in all four of his starts thus far, should be close to the early pace but was soundly beaten by Swag Daddy in the Damon Runyon Stakes.
At Oaklawn on Saturday . . .
Race 8: The Martha Washington Stakes, for three-year-old fillies going a flat mile, has drawn an undefeated and very highly regarded filly in Now I Know, who has won all six of her starts to date. She already has a win over this track, having won the six furlong Dixie Belle Stakes last time out on January 14th. A front-running type, she could potentially face early pressure from Lulu Wong -- as well as late pressure from Dixie Belle runner-up Amie's Dini -- but she has immense talent and should prove difficult to beat.
At Santa Anita on Sunday . . .
Race 2: In this seven-furlong allowance race for three-year-old fillies, there is only one horse that I have my eyes on -- the Bob Baffert trained runner Princess Arabella. The daughter of Any Given Saturday charged from off the pace to break her maiden going six furlongs on the final day of 2011, drawing away to a convincing score in the sharp time of 1:08.48. In my opinion, this filly is something very, very special, and she's right near the top of my Kentucky Oaks watch list. In fact, if she wins like I think she will, she might even be joining my Derby watch list.
-Keelerman
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