Here are my recaps of last week's major races for three-year-olds, including the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II), and both divisions of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III). Enjoy!
Stakes Recaps
El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)
Thoughts: Very little separated Daddy Nose Best and Lucky Chappy at the finish of this race, with the former coming out on top by the narrowest of margins. Clearly, Lucky Chappy didn't get the best of trips, being forced to circle the field very wide on the far turn, but had every chance to win and simply couldn't quite hold off Daddy Nose Best. No plans have been made concerning where the winner will run next, but Lucky Chappy is being pointed toward the $2,000,000 UAE Derby (UAE-II) in late March. Handsome Mike, who finished third, had his chances compromised when he engaged a 90-1 shot in a speed duel. I thought he ran well to defeat the rest of the field in good fashion, and feel he could find himself in the winner's circle next time out, so long as he gets a better trip.
San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)
Thoughts: Congratulations to Drill, who finally got back to the winner's circle after five straight losses. After tracking American Act through decent fractions, he moved up strongly to challenge for the lead and got the victory by a narrow margin in the end. But the main horse of interest in this race was Creative Cause, a grade I-winning juvenile making his three-year-old debut. Despite the fact that he finished third, I thought he ran extremely well, settling off the pace before closing strongly to be beaten just a length while closing his final eighth in a sharp :11 4/5. Add this to the fact that the San Vicente was only seven furlongs in distance -- Creative Cause is better with longer -- and that he wasn't fully cranked for the race, and I believe that this was a perfect first-start back for the son of Giant's Causeway.
Southwest Stakes Division #1 (gr. III)
Thoughts: I really wasn't sure what to think of Castaway going into this race, as the colt has only a maiden victory under his belt from five starts. Nevertheless, despite breaking from gate 11, the colt was able to settle into second early on before kicking clear to win impressively. I loved his :12.56 final eighth, and being by Street Sense out of a Storm Cat mare, this is a colt that shouldn't have much trouble stretching out in distance. Jake Mo ran well, splitting horses in the stretch to secure second place, but he was never a threat to the winner. Longview Drive, Junebugred, and Unbridled's Note, the first three betting choices, all turned in highly disappointing efforts and will have to rebound in their next starts if they are to remain serious Triple Crown contenders.
Southwest Stakes Division #2 (gr. III)
Thoughts: While the first division of the Southwest appeared, on the surface, to be the stronger of the two events, that may or may not have been the case. Secret Circle, winner of division #2, ran a full second faster than Castaway did in the first division, but recorded slower final fractions after setting a quicker pace. Looking at Secret Circle's pedigree, there don't seem to be any obvious distance limitations; nevertheless, it appears as though this colt -- talent or no talent -- just doesn't want to run any farther than a mile.
Other Race Recaps
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/02/three-year-old-to-watch-midnight.html
I was highly impressed by Midnight Crooner's performance, and I have the feeling that he may be something extra special. I loved his :24.34 final quarter mile, during which he opened up on the field en route to a 7 1/2 length victory. Seeing that this victory came over Golden Gate's synthetic main track, perhaps the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland could be a good potential goal?
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/02/three-year-old-to-watch-mamma-kimbo.html
Just how good a filly is Mamma Kimbo? After tracking a blazing early pace, the daughter of Discreet Cat threw in a :11 4/5 eighth of a mile to blow the race wide open, and still managed to close her final eighth in the good time of :12 2/5 before finishing up the six-furlong race in 1:07.94. The performance earned her a Beyer speed figure of 101, the co-highest figure earned by a three-year-old filly this year. Obviously, there are some questions as to how well she will stretch out, but there's no doubt Mamma Kimbo is a legitimate Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) contender.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/02/three-year-old-to-watch-paynter.html
Paynter probably has too much catching up to do in regards to making the Kentucky Derby, but it's pretty clear that this colt could be a force later in the year. Yet another Bob Baffert-trained runner, Paynter settled off the pace in this 5-1/2 furlong event before drawing away to win under little urging. Being a son of Awesome Again, he shouldn't have much trouble stretching out.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/02/three-year-old-to-watch-windsurfer.html
Todd Pletcher appears to have another talented three-year-old colt in his barn. After being caught wide around both turns of this one-mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight, Windsurfer was still able to draw clear in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths. An allowance race will probably be next for this son of Speightstown.
Another notable winner at Gulfstream was Scatter Joy, a first-time starter from the barn of Edward Plesa, Jr. Sent off as the third-choice in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight, Scatter Joy went straight to the lead and never looked back, drawing away in the stretch to win by 7 1/2 lengths in 1:16.50. I also liked the performance turned in by runner-up Wise Guy Charlie, a first-time starter from the barn of Nick Zito. The colt tracked the early pace in good fashion, and while he couldn't match strides with the winner, he did hold off the others for second and should run even better next time out.
Other colts to watch are Irish Sea, who won a nine-furlong turf allowance race at Gulfstream with a final eight of :11 4/5; and Koast, who won a 6-1/2 furlong down-the-hill turf maiden special weight at Santa Anita by 2 1/4 in the sharp time of 1:12 flat.
-Keelerman
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