(Note: Because it is only a week before the Kentucky Derby, I've decided to shorten my "Top Twenty" into a "Top Ten." This is also my final Top Ten prior to the Kentucky Derby. Enjoy!)
1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Arrived at Churchill Downs this morning, along with fellow Derby contender Soldat. Recorded his final breeze for the Derby on April 28th, working a half-mile in a sharp :48 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center. He'll be ready.
2. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He's been training exceptionally well, and I have the feeling that he is peaking at the right time. As long as draws a good post position in the Derby, he should be able to relax just a few lengths off of a moderate early pace and finish well. If he gets the lead at the top of the stretch, he'll be tough to beat.
3. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
It's difficult to choose between this colt and Nehro for the third spot; but I'm putting Archarcharch here because of his marvelous breeze on April 29th at Churchill Downs. He should be ready to run the race of his life on the first Saturday in May.
4. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
You've got to love the way he was closing furiously in the Arkansas Derby, and his solid five-furlong breeze at Churchill Downs in the slop suggests that an off track will not be an issue. He is scheduled to record his final breeze on Monday.
5. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Breezed for the first time since the Wood Memorial on April 26th, breezing five furlongs in 1:01 4/5. He seems to be recovering nicely from his GI infection, but it will be hard to say just how well he’s improved until he breezes tomorrow morning.
6. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
One week before the Derby – and he hasn’t breezed since the Wood Memorial. He’s scheduled to work tomorrow at Fair Hill, then ship to Churchill on Tuesday. An unorthodox training schedule, yes, but I’m sure it’s best for him.
7. Pants On Fire - Trained by Kelly Breen
He’s arrived at Churchill Downs and is scheduled to record his final breeze tomorrow morning. It should tell us a great deal more about what kind of form he’s in right now; whether or not he’s improving. I’m looking forward to it.
8. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
Breezed six furlongs in a good 1:13 3/5 at Churchill Downs on April 26th. He is expected to record one more workout prior to the Derby, on Monday. He’ll have to overcome a lot of history, but he may just be talented enough to do so.
9. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Roman
He breezed a simply brilliant five furlongs this morning at Churchill Downs, working five furlongs in :58 4/5. Perhaps he did benefit from a speed-favoring track in the Florida Derby – but this colt may just be getting good at the right time.
10. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
I've got the funny feeling that this colt is going to run better than anyone expects -- he's done nothing wrong, and has been training extremely well at Churchill Downs for almost a month now. His runner-up performance in the Spiral wasn't bad at all, and he may just run a winning race on the first Saturday in May.
-Keelerman
Saturday, April 30, 2011
J.R.'S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP TEN ---- April 21st, 2011
1. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
He'll have no workouts at Churchill Downs, but it shouldn't matter. This colt has an unbelievable amount of talent and should get a decent trip in the Derby.
2. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
He'll love the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby, and he seems to be the kind of horse that would like slop too. He's improving with every start and is training nicely.
3. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Sharp workout at Churchill, but was it too fast? You want them training nicely, but not too nicely. I have the feeling that this colt is sitting on a big race, though.
4. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He'll get a good trip, that's for sure. He's got the early speed, and he's rateable. Hopefully he'll be able to draft in behind the early leaders.
5. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
I'm thinking that this colt will offer a decent price, and he may be better than most think. He got a rotten trip in the Spiral, and seems to like Churchill Downs. Hmm. . .
6. Master of Hounds - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
Garrett Gomez has been named to ride this colt. He's scheduled to arrive at Churchill on Tuesday. It will be nearly impossible to gauge how he'll take to the dirt, but he's already proven at 1 3/16th miles.
7. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
He's arrived at Churchill Downs, but I wasn't impressed by his final workout and feel that he will have too much ground to close in the final quarter mile. But then again, Zito knows how to win the Derby.
8. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
Sharp breeze recently at Churchill signals that he's training well, but I won't know what to think of him for sure until after his final breeze.
9. Brilliant Speed - Trained by Tom Albertrani
The big question: can he carry his fine synthetic & turf form over to dirt? That question will remain unanswered until Derby day. But he's got the talent, that's for sure.
10. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His first workout since the Wood was encouraging, but I'd like to see him show a bit more in his final workout tomorrow morning. If he goes, you know, :59 and change then I'll toss his Wood performance and say that he's over his troubles.
-J.R.
He'll have no workouts at Churchill Downs, but it shouldn't matter. This colt has an unbelievable amount of talent and should get a decent trip in the Derby.
2. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
He'll love the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby, and he seems to be the kind of horse that would like slop too. He's improving with every start and is training nicely.
3. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Sharp workout at Churchill, but was it too fast? You want them training nicely, but not too nicely. I have the feeling that this colt is sitting on a big race, though.
4. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He'll get a good trip, that's for sure. He's got the early speed, and he's rateable. Hopefully he'll be able to draft in behind the early leaders.
5. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
I'm thinking that this colt will offer a decent price, and he may be better than most think. He got a rotten trip in the Spiral, and seems to like Churchill Downs. Hmm. . .
6. Master of Hounds - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
Garrett Gomez has been named to ride this colt. He's scheduled to arrive at Churchill on Tuesday. It will be nearly impossible to gauge how he'll take to the dirt, but he's already proven at 1 3/16th miles.
7. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
He's arrived at Churchill Downs, but I wasn't impressed by his final workout and feel that he will have too much ground to close in the final quarter mile. But then again, Zito knows how to win the Derby.
8. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
Sharp breeze recently at Churchill signals that he's training well, but I won't know what to think of him for sure until after his final breeze.
9. Brilliant Speed - Trained by Tom Albertrani
The big question: can he carry his fine synthetic & turf form over to dirt? That question will remain unanswered until Derby day. But he's got the talent, that's for sure.
10. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His first workout since the Wood was encouraging, but I'd like to see him show a bit more in his final workout tomorrow morning. If he goes, you know, :59 and change then I'll toss his Wood performance and say that he's over his troubles.
-J.R.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Calvin Borel's 2011 Kentucky Derby Mount: Twice the Appeal
At long last, Calvin Borel -- winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2007, 2009, and 2010 -- has secured a mount for the 2011 edition of the Run for the Roses.
As I wrote in a previous post, Calvin Borel and his agent have been searching for a Derby mount for well over a week now. Borel was committed to ride Elite Alex on the first Saturday in May -- granted the colt secured the necassary graded earnings to make the race. Unfortunately, a ninth-place finish in the April 16th Arkansas Derby left Elite Alex with only $65,000 in graded cash, not nearly enough to get into the Derby.
And thus Calvin's search for a new mount began. As mentioned in my previous post, mount possibilities as of April 18th consisted mainly of Nehro, Comma to the Top, and J P's Gusto, with Animal Kingdom, Brethren, Jaycito, Santiva, and Silver Medallion as potentially available horses. Since then, J P's Gusto, Brethren, Jaycito, and Silver Medallion have all dropped out of Derby consideration. Nehro, Comma to the Top, and Santiva have all secured other riders, and Animal Kingdom is expected to be ridden by Robby Albarado. Thus, it appeared as though all of Borel's options were exhausted; that the famous rider could be left without a mount in the race that made him famous.
Then the possibility of riding Master of Hounds arose. The European hopeful was without a rider, and Borel loomed a serious possibility. At about the same time, Calvin Borel was asked to work Gotham Stakes (gr. III) winner Stay Thirsty during a workout. Suddenly, Borel had a couple of potential mounts.
However, it was then announced that Todd Pletcher, trainer of Stay Thirsty, had secured Eclipse award-winning jockey Ramon Dominguez to ride Stay Thirsty in the Kentucky Derby.
This was the situation up until today -- with Master of Hounds as Borel's final potential Derby mount. Then -- without warning -- Borel had a Derby mount.
It was announced today by Borel's agent, Jerry Hissam, that Borel would ride Sunland Derby (gr. III) winner Twice the Appeal in the Kentucky Derby. It came as somewhat of a surprise to me, for I figured that Christian Santiago Reyes, who rode the colt to a 25-1 upset in the Sunland Derby, would retain the mount in the Run for the Roses. But that is not the case.
The Sunland Derby is held at Sunland Park in New Mexico -- not the usual route that Derby horses take to Louisville. It was never even considered a prep for the Kentucky Derby until Mine That Bird used it as his final race prior to upsetting the 2009 Kentucky Derby at odds of 50-1. And who rode Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby? None other than Calvin Borel.
Twice the Appeal is considered by few to be a legitimate Derby contender. He was expected to be one of the longshots in Louisville -- that is, before Borel secured the mount. Now, I would not be surprised if Twice the Appeal was among the favorites in the Run for the Roses, strictly because Borel will be aboard.
I know my respect for Twice the Appeal has just grown. But whether or not the colt wins the Derby isn't important at the moment. What's important is that Borel has a mount. A Derby without Calvin just isn't a Derby.
-Keelerman
As I wrote in a previous post, Calvin Borel and his agent have been searching for a Derby mount for well over a week now. Borel was committed to ride Elite Alex on the first Saturday in May -- granted the colt secured the necassary graded earnings to make the race. Unfortunately, a ninth-place finish in the April 16th Arkansas Derby left Elite Alex with only $65,000 in graded cash, not nearly enough to get into the Derby.
And thus Calvin's search for a new mount began. As mentioned in my previous post, mount possibilities as of April 18th consisted mainly of Nehro, Comma to the Top, and J P's Gusto, with Animal Kingdom, Brethren, Jaycito, Santiva, and Silver Medallion as potentially available horses. Since then, J P's Gusto, Brethren, Jaycito, and Silver Medallion have all dropped out of Derby consideration. Nehro, Comma to the Top, and Santiva have all secured other riders, and Animal Kingdom is expected to be ridden by Robby Albarado. Thus, it appeared as though all of Borel's options were exhausted; that the famous rider could be left without a mount in the race that made him famous.
Then the possibility of riding Master of Hounds arose. The European hopeful was without a rider, and Borel loomed a serious possibility. At about the same time, Calvin Borel was asked to work Gotham Stakes (gr. III) winner Stay Thirsty during a workout. Suddenly, Borel had a couple of potential mounts.
However, it was then announced that Todd Pletcher, trainer of Stay Thirsty, had secured Eclipse award-winning jockey Ramon Dominguez to ride Stay Thirsty in the Kentucky Derby.
This was the situation up until today -- with Master of Hounds as Borel's final potential Derby mount. Then -- without warning -- Borel had a Derby mount.
It was announced today by Borel's agent, Jerry Hissam, that Borel would ride Sunland Derby (gr. III) winner Twice the Appeal in the Kentucky Derby. It came as somewhat of a surprise to me, for I figured that Christian Santiago Reyes, who rode the colt to a 25-1 upset in the Sunland Derby, would retain the mount in the Run for the Roses. But that is not the case.
The Sunland Derby is held at Sunland Park in New Mexico -- not the usual route that Derby horses take to Louisville. It was never even considered a prep for the Kentucky Derby until Mine That Bird used it as his final race prior to upsetting the 2009 Kentucky Derby at odds of 50-1. And who rode Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby? None other than Calvin Borel.
Twice the Appeal is considered by few to be a legitimate Derby contender. He was expected to be one of the longshots in Louisville -- that is, before Borel secured the mount. Now, I would not be surprised if Twice the Appeal was among the favorites in the Run for the Roses, strictly because Borel will be aboard.
I know my respect for Twice the Appeal has just grown. But whether or not the colt wins the Derby isn't important at the moment. What's important is that Borel has a mount. A Derby without Calvin just isn't a Derby.
-Keelerman
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- April 26th, 2011
The final Kentucky Derby prep race was run last weekend -- although in reality it was not a Derby prep at all. The Lexington Stakes (gr. III) has long been a last-chance opportunity for three-year-olds to secure needed graded earnings to make the Derby field. However, the race's purse of $200,000 will likely prove insufficient this year, for it looks as though $200,000+ in earnings will be necessary to make this year's Derby. But it is still worth recapping here, simply because it will probably turn out a Preakness or Belmont Stakes contender or two.
The race, which drew a rather small field of six, was led by Silver Medallion. The promising colt, who won the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields earlier this year before finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, was sent off as the favorite at 1.30-1. The Steve Asmussen-trainee desperately needed to win the race, for he lacked the needed graded earnings to make the Derby field, and only a victory in the Lexington would suffice. Second wouldn't provide enough earnings. A win was required.
Casper's Touch, impressive winner of a Keeneland allowance race, was proven over the track and was the second choice. Prime Cut, who nearly broke a Fair Grounds track record last time out when defeating the highly regarded Bind, was also well bet. One colt who was not well bet at all was Derby Kitten, who despite being 4-1 on the morning line was sent off at a generous 9.20-1.
The race unfolded pretty much as expected, with Casper's Touch sent to the lead by rider Alan Garcia. The colt rattled off moderate fractions of :23.96 and :47.17 while maintaining a one-length lead over Silver Medallion and Prime Cut. Silver Medallion was racing along the inside in a perfect spot, while Prime Cut was on the outside three-wide. In fourth was Taptowne, with Hurricane Lake four-wide in fourth. Derby Kitten? He was last of all, about six lengths off the lead.
Suddenly, things began to change. Taptowne made a bold bid on the far outside under Corey Lanedrie and took the lead with five-sixteenths of a mile to go, running three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.11. Prime Cut had also made a run for the lead and was sitting in second, a half-length clear of Casper's Touch. Silver Medallion was down along the inside in fourth, but going nowhere. Hurricane Lake was in fifth and not responding. Derby Kitten? Still last.
Into the homestretch, Taptowne began to tired rapidly from his four-wide bid and dropped back to last. Casper's Touch battled back in front of Prime Cut, and for a brief moment appeared to be on his way to victory. But then, with a sudden burst of acceleration, Derby Kitten came flying home on the far outside. Under Julien Leparoux, the colt stormed his final five-sixteenths in a blazing :29 1/5 to win the race by a length and a half. The son of Kitten's Joy stopped the clock in a very sharp 1:42.03, just 2/5 of a second off of the track record set by Embur's Song the day before. It was a remarkable performance; one which stamps Derby Kitten as a very fine colt indeed. Horses rarely close that fast unless the early pace of the race was very, very slow -- which the pace of the Lexington was not. It is very unfortunate that Derby Kitten lacks the graded earnings to run in the Derby, for he appears to be a colt of immense talent who would relish a mile and a quarter. But perhaps the Preakness or the Belmont are in his future.
Prime Cut, making his first start over a synthetic track, ran very well to finish second and ran by no means a bad race. Despite being caught wide throughout, he gamely came back at Casper's Touch while closing his final sixteenth in somewhere around :6 1/5 or :6 2/5. Casper's Touch also ran very well, gamely reclaiming the lead in the stretch after being passed on the far turn before tiring a bit late. The only disappointment was Silver Medallion, who probably hadn't recovered enough from his Santa Anita Derby effort two weeks ago to run his best race.
Here is the complete order of finish:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Prime Cut
3 Casper's Touch
4 Silver Medallion
5 Hurricane Lake
6 Taptowne
My selections were:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Silver Medallion
3 Prime Cut
4 Casper's Touch
5 Hurricane Lake
6 Taptowne
J.R.'s picks were:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Casper's Touch
3 Silver Medallion
4 Prime Cut
5 Taptowne
6 Hurricane Lake
We both succeeded in picking the winner -- mostly because we were able to come up with strong reasons why the others would not win. We both felt that Silver Medallion wouldn't be ready to run his best race just two weeks after the Santa Anita Derby, and we both worried that Prime Cut might not take to the surface. We were both impressed by Derby Kitten’s runner-up performance in the Alligator Alley Stakes, so we both ended up adding ten points to our totals in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest.
Hello Charlie!
Derby Kitten wasn't the only mild longshot to pull off an upset last Saturday. Adios Charlie, sent off as the fifth choice in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) for three-year-olds at Aqueduct, said good bye to his rivals in deep stretch while drawing away to win the $150,000 stakes event by 2 1/2 widening lengths.
The one-mile race, contested on a sloppy sealed track, was supposed to be a battle between Cal Nation and Astrology. The former was coming off of a runner-up performance in an allowance race to stable mate Dance City, who returned to finish third in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). Astrology, a stakes-winning two-year-old, was entering off of a second place finish in the rich Sunland Derby (gr. III). A virtually even amount was wagered on the two of them to win, with Cal Nation being sent off as the slightest of favorites at 2.30-1.
Quickest out of the gate was Adios Charlie, but he was content to sit back in second as Cal Nation went to the lead under John Velazquez. Astrology was parked in third up on the outside, a length and a half clear of Justin Phillip. Rattlesnake Bridge, runner-up to champion Uncle Mo in the Timely Writer Stakes, was caught three wide in fifth, with longshot Isn't He Perfect getting a ground-saving trip in sixth. Gallant Dreams and Starship Caesar trailed the field.
The early fractions were very quick, especially so when one considers the track conditions. The opening quarter mile was run in :23.31 and the half in :47.12. The positions remained unchanged during this time. However, Cal Nation was beginning to show signs of stopping. Suddenly, on the outside, Justin Phillip flew into contention under Ramon Dominguez. In the blink of an eye, his four-wide bid had carried him into first place after three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.87. With only a quarter of a mile to go, he appeared to be home free. Adios Charlie was back to second along the inside and seemingly beaten. Cal Nation was tiring in third. Astrology was being asked for acceleration but just didn't have it. Rattlesnake Bridge was not responding, and the three longshots were well out of contention.
Passing the eighth pole, Justin Phillip was maintaining a one length lead over Adios Charlie. But suddenly, without warning, Adios Charlie turned on the afterburners. Under Rajiv Maragh, the colt found another gear in deep stretch, charging back along the inside to reclaim the lead. Justin Phillip, perhaps tiring from his four-wide sweeping bid to take the lead, tired late to finish third, a neck behind Astrology. Rattlesnake Bridge put in a mild rally for fourth, but never threatened the winner. Cal Nation faded badly to finish last, some thirteen lengths behind Adios Charlie.
In analyzing this race, several things struck me. First off, Adios Charlie proved very game to come back at Justin Phillip to win the race. But he didn't just come back -- he totally re-accelerated, drawing away to a decisive victory. He obviously relished the sloppy conditions, and being a lightly-raced colt, there should be some more improvement in the future.
Astrology, although he finished second, never really got into contention to win. He strikes me as a colt with a long grind, who can keep on running for a long, long time -- but without any instant acceleration. I noticed this last year when he was second to Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) -- he had every opportunity to blow past the winner, but just couldn't do it. In the Sunland Derby earlier this year, he hung around close to the lead but just didn't finish with a burst of speed like some horses can. I think that in order for this colt to win, he has to be on or very close to the lead turning for home.
As for Justin Phillip, he ran a very good race but just tired late. Perhaps a mile is a bit too far for him -- seven furlongs may be his ideal distance. But he's definitely a quality colt and I'm confident that he'll win a stakes race someday.
I'm not sure what happened to Cal Nation, but it would probably be wise to just toss this race out when handicapping his next start. Perhaps he didn't care for the sloppy track. But this was not the same Cal Nation that we saw at Gulfstream earlier this year, and I wouldn't jump off his bandwagon yet.
So here is the complete order of finish:
1 Adios Charlie
2 Astrology
3 Justin Phillip
4 Rattlesnake Bridge
5 Isn't He Perfect
6 Starship Caesar
7 Gallant Dreams
8 Cal Nation
Here were my picks:
1 Cal Nation
2 Astrology
3 Adios Charlie
4 Justin Phillip
5 Rattlesnake Bridge
6 Isn't He Perfect
7 Starship Caesar
8 Gallant Dreams
And here were J.R.'s picks:
1 Justin Phillip
2 Adios Charlie
3 Astrology
4 Rattlesnake Bridge
5 Cal Nation
6 Starship Caesar
7 Gallant Dreams
8 Isn't He Perfect
Other Race Results
The Golden Circle Stakes at Prairie Meadows on Saturday marked the return of Sherriff Cogburn, one of the most promising two-year-olds in the country last summer. In his first start – a five furlong maiden special weight at Arlington Park – he drew off impressively in the stretch to win by seven lengths. Behind him was Caleb’s Posse, who won the Smarty Jones Stakes earlier this year and finished second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II). One month later at Prairie Meadows, the bay colt dominated his rivals in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile Stakes, drawing away to a 9 ¼ length triumph.
However, setbacks kept the colt away for many, many months. The Golden Circle Stakes was the colt’s first start since the Prairie Meadows Juvenile. He would not be facing much – a mere three rivals turned out to face him – and he was sent off as the favorite at even-money. However, a win was not on the horizon.
In the six furlong event, Sherriff Cogburn broke cleanly and settled into third place early, just a length off of the lead. The pace was set by Arcadian, a stakes-winning juvenile who had won half of his six starts.
The opening quarter mile was run in a quick :21.98, during which Arcadian maintained his early advantage. But turning for home after a half-mile in :44.79, he was confronted by Sheriff Cogburn, Moonbie, and Sharp Dude. The four runners were separated by only about a neck as they turned for home. But Arcadian had a lot left in the tank, and quickly began pulling away. Passing the eighth pole he led by two lengths and extended that lead to 3 ¾ lengths at the wire. He completed the race in 1;09.77.
Sherriff Cogburn just edged out Moonbie for second, with Sharp Dude finishing a distant last.
The other race of note run last Saturday was the Snow Chief Stakes at Hollywood Park. A nine furlong event for California-bred three-year-olds, the slight favorite was Chiloquin. A solid allowance horse, he entered the race off of a pair of close thirds in allowance races – behind the likes of Mr. Common and Uncle Sam, among others. Drink at Busters and Thirtyfirststreet were also well bet.
However, it was the second longest shot in the field, Nahem, who got to the wire first. Ridden by Victor Espinoza, the colt rallied furiously in the final eighth of a mile to win the $150,000 event by a desperate head. The longest shot in the race, Woodmans Luck, closed even faster to finish second, completing a $1 exacta that paid a monstrous $124.80. The final time was 1:52.20.
It was another half-length back to Thirtyfirststreet, who edged out Chiloquin for fourth. The favorite led the way through moderate fractions of :24.34 and :49.01 but tired late to be beaten only a length. However, his rider lost the whip at the eighth pole, which may have cost him a better finishing position.
Burns, Offlee Wild Boys, and Drink at Busters completed the order of finish. The latter was eased late in the race and was vanned off.
Only about ten days to go until the Kentucky Derby. . . it’s getting closer and closer!
-Keelerman
The race, which drew a rather small field of six, was led by Silver Medallion. The promising colt, who won the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields earlier this year before finishing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, was sent off as the favorite at 1.30-1. The Steve Asmussen-trainee desperately needed to win the race, for he lacked the needed graded earnings to make the Derby field, and only a victory in the Lexington would suffice. Second wouldn't provide enough earnings. A win was required.
Casper's Touch, impressive winner of a Keeneland allowance race, was proven over the track and was the second choice. Prime Cut, who nearly broke a Fair Grounds track record last time out when defeating the highly regarded Bind, was also well bet. One colt who was not well bet at all was Derby Kitten, who despite being 4-1 on the morning line was sent off at a generous 9.20-1.
The race unfolded pretty much as expected, with Casper's Touch sent to the lead by rider Alan Garcia. The colt rattled off moderate fractions of :23.96 and :47.17 while maintaining a one-length lead over Silver Medallion and Prime Cut. Silver Medallion was racing along the inside in a perfect spot, while Prime Cut was on the outside three-wide. In fourth was Taptowne, with Hurricane Lake four-wide in fourth. Derby Kitten? He was last of all, about six lengths off the lead.
Suddenly, things began to change. Taptowne made a bold bid on the far outside under Corey Lanedrie and took the lead with five-sixteenths of a mile to go, running three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.11. Prime Cut had also made a run for the lead and was sitting in second, a half-length clear of Casper's Touch. Silver Medallion was down along the inside in fourth, but going nowhere. Hurricane Lake was in fifth and not responding. Derby Kitten? Still last.
Into the homestretch, Taptowne began to tired rapidly from his four-wide bid and dropped back to last. Casper's Touch battled back in front of Prime Cut, and for a brief moment appeared to be on his way to victory. But then, with a sudden burst of acceleration, Derby Kitten came flying home on the far outside. Under Julien Leparoux, the colt stormed his final five-sixteenths in a blazing :29 1/5 to win the race by a length and a half. The son of Kitten's Joy stopped the clock in a very sharp 1:42.03, just 2/5 of a second off of the track record set by Embur's Song the day before. It was a remarkable performance; one which stamps Derby Kitten as a very fine colt indeed. Horses rarely close that fast unless the early pace of the race was very, very slow -- which the pace of the Lexington was not. It is very unfortunate that Derby Kitten lacks the graded earnings to run in the Derby, for he appears to be a colt of immense talent who would relish a mile and a quarter. But perhaps the Preakness or the Belmont are in his future.
Prime Cut, making his first start over a synthetic track, ran very well to finish second and ran by no means a bad race. Despite being caught wide throughout, he gamely came back at Casper's Touch while closing his final sixteenth in somewhere around :6 1/5 or :6 2/5. Casper's Touch also ran very well, gamely reclaiming the lead in the stretch after being passed on the far turn before tiring a bit late. The only disappointment was Silver Medallion, who probably hadn't recovered enough from his Santa Anita Derby effort two weeks ago to run his best race.
Here is the complete order of finish:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Prime Cut
3 Casper's Touch
4 Silver Medallion
5 Hurricane Lake
6 Taptowne
My selections were:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Silver Medallion
3 Prime Cut
4 Casper's Touch
5 Hurricane Lake
6 Taptowne
J.R.'s picks were:
1 Derby Kitten
2 Casper's Touch
3 Silver Medallion
4 Prime Cut
5 Taptowne
6 Hurricane Lake
We both succeeded in picking the winner -- mostly because we were able to come up with strong reasons why the others would not win. We both felt that Silver Medallion wouldn't be ready to run his best race just two weeks after the Santa Anita Derby, and we both worried that Prime Cut might not take to the surface. We were both impressed by Derby Kitten’s runner-up performance in the Alligator Alley Stakes, so we both ended up adding ten points to our totals in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest.
Hello Charlie!
Derby Kitten wasn't the only mild longshot to pull off an upset last Saturday. Adios Charlie, sent off as the fifth choice in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) for three-year-olds at Aqueduct, said good bye to his rivals in deep stretch while drawing away to win the $150,000 stakes event by 2 1/2 widening lengths.
The one-mile race, contested on a sloppy sealed track, was supposed to be a battle between Cal Nation and Astrology. The former was coming off of a runner-up performance in an allowance race to stable mate Dance City, who returned to finish third in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). Astrology, a stakes-winning two-year-old, was entering off of a second place finish in the rich Sunland Derby (gr. III). A virtually even amount was wagered on the two of them to win, with Cal Nation being sent off as the slightest of favorites at 2.30-1.
Quickest out of the gate was Adios Charlie, but he was content to sit back in second as Cal Nation went to the lead under John Velazquez. Astrology was parked in third up on the outside, a length and a half clear of Justin Phillip. Rattlesnake Bridge, runner-up to champion Uncle Mo in the Timely Writer Stakes, was caught three wide in fifth, with longshot Isn't He Perfect getting a ground-saving trip in sixth. Gallant Dreams and Starship Caesar trailed the field.
The early fractions were very quick, especially so when one considers the track conditions. The opening quarter mile was run in :23.31 and the half in :47.12. The positions remained unchanged during this time. However, Cal Nation was beginning to show signs of stopping. Suddenly, on the outside, Justin Phillip flew into contention under Ramon Dominguez. In the blink of an eye, his four-wide bid had carried him into first place after three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.87. With only a quarter of a mile to go, he appeared to be home free. Adios Charlie was back to second along the inside and seemingly beaten. Cal Nation was tiring in third. Astrology was being asked for acceleration but just didn't have it. Rattlesnake Bridge was not responding, and the three longshots were well out of contention.
Passing the eighth pole, Justin Phillip was maintaining a one length lead over Adios Charlie. But suddenly, without warning, Adios Charlie turned on the afterburners. Under Rajiv Maragh, the colt found another gear in deep stretch, charging back along the inside to reclaim the lead. Justin Phillip, perhaps tiring from his four-wide sweeping bid to take the lead, tired late to finish third, a neck behind Astrology. Rattlesnake Bridge put in a mild rally for fourth, but never threatened the winner. Cal Nation faded badly to finish last, some thirteen lengths behind Adios Charlie.
In analyzing this race, several things struck me. First off, Adios Charlie proved very game to come back at Justin Phillip to win the race. But he didn't just come back -- he totally re-accelerated, drawing away to a decisive victory. He obviously relished the sloppy conditions, and being a lightly-raced colt, there should be some more improvement in the future.
Astrology, although he finished second, never really got into contention to win. He strikes me as a colt with a long grind, who can keep on running for a long, long time -- but without any instant acceleration. I noticed this last year when he was second to Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) -- he had every opportunity to blow past the winner, but just couldn't do it. In the Sunland Derby earlier this year, he hung around close to the lead but just didn't finish with a burst of speed like some horses can. I think that in order for this colt to win, he has to be on or very close to the lead turning for home.
As for Justin Phillip, he ran a very good race but just tired late. Perhaps a mile is a bit too far for him -- seven furlongs may be his ideal distance. But he's definitely a quality colt and I'm confident that he'll win a stakes race someday.
I'm not sure what happened to Cal Nation, but it would probably be wise to just toss this race out when handicapping his next start. Perhaps he didn't care for the sloppy track. But this was not the same Cal Nation that we saw at Gulfstream earlier this year, and I wouldn't jump off his bandwagon yet.
So here is the complete order of finish:
1 Adios Charlie
2 Astrology
3 Justin Phillip
4 Rattlesnake Bridge
5 Isn't He Perfect
6 Starship Caesar
7 Gallant Dreams
8 Cal Nation
Here were my picks:
1 Cal Nation
2 Astrology
3 Adios Charlie
4 Justin Phillip
5 Rattlesnake Bridge
6 Isn't He Perfect
7 Starship Caesar
8 Gallant Dreams
And here were J.R.'s picks:
1 Justin Phillip
2 Adios Charlie
3 Astrology
4 Rattlesnake Bridge
5 Cal Nation
6 Starship Caesar
7 Gallant Dreams
8 Isn't He Perfect
Other Race Results
The Golden Circle Stakes at Prairie Meadows on Saturday marked the return of Sherriff Cogburn, one of the most promising two-year-olds in the country last summer. In his first start – a five furlong maiden special weight at Arlington Park – he drew off impressively in the stretch to win by seven lengths. Behind him was Caleb’s Posse, who won the Smarty Jones Stakes earlier this year and finished second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II). One month later at Prairie Meadows, the bay colt dominated his rivals in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile Stakes, drawing away to a 9 ¼ length triumph.
However, setbacks kept the colt away for many, many months. The Golden Circle Stakes was the colt’s first start since the Prairie Meadows Juvenile. He would not be facing much – a mere three rivals turned out to face him – and he was sent off as the favorite at even-money. However, a win was not on the horizon.
In the six furlong event, Sherriff Cogburn broke cleanly and settled into third place early, just a length off of the lead. The pace was set by Arcadian, a stakes-winning juvenile who had won half of his six starts.
The opening quarter mile was run in a quick :21.98, during which Arcadian maintained his early advantage. But turning for home after a half-mile in :44.79, he was confronted by Sheriff Cogburn, Moonbie, and Sharp Dude. The four runners were separated by only about a neck as they turned for home. But Arcadian had a lot left in the tank, and quickly began pulling away. Passing the eighth pole he led by two lengths and extended that lead to 3 ¾ lengths at the wire. He completed the race in 1;09.77.
Sherriff Cogburn just edged out Moonbie for second, with Sharp Dude finishing a distant last.
The other race of note run last Saturday was the Snow Chief Stakes at Hollywood Park. A nine furlong event for California-bred three-year-olds, the slight favorite was Chiloquin. A solid allowance horse, he entered the race off of a pair of close thirds in allowance races – behind the likes of Mr. Common and Uncle Sam, among others. Drink at Busters and Thirtyfirststreet were also well bet.
However, it was the second longest shot in the field, Nahem, who got to the wire first. Ridden by Victor Espinoza, the colt rallied furiously in the final eighth of a mile to win the $150,000 event by a desperate head. The longest shot in the race, Woodmans Luck, closed even faster to finish second, completing a $1 exacta that paid a monstrous $124.80. The final time was 1:52.20.
It was another half-length back to Thirtyfirststreet, who edged out Chiloquin for fourth. The favorite led the way through moderate fractions of :24.34 and :49.01 but tired late to be beaten only a length. However, his rider lost the whip at the eighth pole, which may have cost him a better finishing position.
Burns, Offlee Wild Boys, and Drink at Busters completed the order of finish. The latter was eased late in the race and was vanned off.
Only about ten days to go until the Kentucky Derby. . . it’s getting closer and closer!
-Keelerman
Monday, April 25, 2011
OF MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE AND BOB BAFFERT
On the morning of April 16th, trainer Bob Baffert must have been feeling pretty good about his chances in the 2011 Kentucky Derby. The white-haired master trainer, famous throughout the world thanks to the accomplishments of his numerous talented horses, had on three occasions won the Derby. In 1997, it was Silver Charm who brought home the roses. In 1998, Real Quiet pulled off the feat. 2002 also went Baffert's way, as War Emblem stormed to a wire-to-wire victory in the Run for the Roses. Now, nine years after his last victory, Baffert was sitting with three serious Derby contenders; his fourth Derby very much on the horizon.
The Factor was the head of the troops; a decorated brigadier. Three times he had earned those elusive triple-digit Beyer speed figures that stamp Derby contenders with potential greatness. With blinding speed, he had run his rivals off their feet in both the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) and the Rebel Stakes (gr. II). He was not only the favorite for Arkansas Derby (gr. I) later in the afternoon, but the favorite for the Kentucky Derby itself. Only disaster could keep the brilliant bay from his fulfilling his mission.
In comparison, Jaycito was a toughened veteran. He had won the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) despite a wide trip and having never before won a race. In his 2011 debut, he wasn't quite up to handling Premier Pegasus in his first start in four months, but still rallied strongly to finish second. A foot bruise had kept him from competing in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), but he was expected to compete in the Lexington Stakes and continue on to Kentucky as planned. The well-bred colt was obviously a true stayer, and would relish the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby.
Midnight Interlude was the newest addition to the group; the least experienced, as well. Unraced at two, the colt lost his first two races before breaking his maiden on March 20th. He was on no one’s Derby radar -- expect perhaps the radar of Baffert himself -- until he rallied furiously in the stretch to defeat Comma to the Top by a head in the Santa Anita Derby. Suddenly, the young, untested, inexperienced colt found himself in the spotlight; scrutinized by handicappers who were impressed by the adversity he had overcome in the Santa Anita Derby. His talent was clear to everyone, but a serious question remained -- no horse since Apollo in 1882 had won the Derby without racing at two. Midnight Interlude was taking an unorthodox path to Louisville, but it had worked so far.
Those were Baffert's contenders on the morning of April 16th. Now, nine days later, the Baffert Brigade has been quite possibly been reduced to just one horse.
First, The Factor failed as the heavy favorite in the Arkansas Derby. Taken just off the pace by Martin Garcia, the colt encountered a bit of a rough trip and could offer no challenge entering the homestretch. He faded to finish seventh. It was soon discovered that the colt had displaced his palate during the race, and suddenly his Derby status rose into question.
The troubles continued a few days later, when Bob Baffert did not enter Jaycito in the Lexington Stakes as planned. The foot bruise that had kept the colt out of the Santa Anita Derby had caused the colt to miss more training, but Baffert still believed that the colt would make the Derby.
However, on April 24th he broke the news that Jaycito would be forced to skip the Kentucky Derby due to the missed training. The colt simply could not be readied to run his best race in Louisville in a mere two weeks. Instead, Jaycito would await the Belmont Stakes in June, which would allow the colt much more time to train and recover from his foot problem.
But this was not the end. On the morning of April 25th, it was announced that The Factor had undergone surgery to correct the breathing issue that had occurred during the Arkansas Derby. The colt galloped at Churchill Downs this morning, but Baffert stated that he was not thinking about the Kentucky Derby and that The Factor would have to train exceptionally well in order for him to be entered in the Run for the Roses.
In a matter of two days, the Baffert Brigade had lost its two biggest stars, leaving only Midnight Interlude to carry the hopes of Derby glory for Baffert in Louisville. Midnight Interlude has suddenly become the star of the stable; the lone hopeful to add a fourth victory in America's biggest race to Baffert's résumé. Should he succeed in capturing the Run for the Roses, it would be a feat of unequaled magnitude. For a horse to win the Kentucky Derby off of zero starts at two and having broken his maiden in mid-March, he must have the rare blend of speed, stamina, talent, and heart that only appears in the greatest of champions. Midnight Interlude has the talent. He's shown that the speed and stamina exists. But the heart -- oh, the heart. Without it, no horse can achieve true greatness. To enter the quarter-mile homestretch at Churchill Downs, already tired and leg-weary, and put every last ounce toward reaching the wire ahead of nineteen other horses requires the heart of a champion.
Should Midnight Interlude reach the wire victorious on the first Saturday in May, then he will have stamped his legend into the history books with indelible ink. Not even time itself will wither or diminish the incredible exploit. Should Midnight Interlude reach the wire victorious on the first Saturday in May, he will have achieved true greatness; something that Jaycito and The Factor could not have achieved with a Derby victory. They had followed the beaten paths to Churchill Downs; the same paths that many other Derby winners before them had cleared. Midnight Interlude has cleared his own path; a shortcut through the deep swamps and rocky mountains which have caused other horses to turn away. He has overcome every obstacle set before him thus far, but now he must hurdle the biggest challenge yet -- 129 years of history. But if he can do it, he will become a Derby legend.
The Factor and Jaycito both could have won the Derby, but not the legend. Only Midnight Interlude can do that. Bob Baffert may have lost his two biggest Derby contenders -- but he still has a legend in the making.
-Keelerman
Friday, April 22, 2011
WHO WILL MAKE THE EARNINGS CUT?
Two weeks left until the Kentucky Derby – and not a lot of time to secure graded earnings.
The field for the 2011 Kentucky Derby is pretty much set now. Only three graded stakes races for three-year-olds remain prior to the Run for the Roses, the three races being the Lexington Stakes (gr. III), Jerome Handicap (gr. II), and the Derby Trial (gr. III). Of the trio, only the Lexington is expected to turn out a Derby contender.
So who will make the earnings cut and who won’t?
The Kentucky Derby field is limited to twenty starters. If more than twenty enter, than the horses with the highest earnings in graded stakes races get into the race. Big, rich graded stakes races – like the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) or the Florida Derby (gr. I) – all but guarantee their winners a berth in the Derby thanks to their rich purses.
Here’s an up-to-date list of the top Derby contenders by graded stakes earnings:
http://www.drf.com/news/2011-kentucky-derby-contenders-ranked-graded-earnings
If all of the top twenty horses were to run in the Derby, than Watch Me Go, Shackleford, Twinspired would all be kept from the Derby field. They are all worthy of running on the first Saturday in May – Watch Me Go is the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) winner, Shackleford was beaten a nose while second in the Florida Derby (gr. I), and Twinspired was second by a head in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I).
But the question is, will they actually be excluded?
That is the mystery of the Derby that keeps everyone guessing all the way up until the day the entries are drawn – who will be excluded. Because time after time, year after year, horses who had the earnings to run in the Derby dropped out in the final days before the race.
Last year was a perfect example. In the final week prior to the Derby, Eskendereya, Rule, Interactif, and Endorsement all dropped out due to a variety of reasons. This enabled Homeboykris, Jackson Bend, Backtalk, and Make Music for Me to sneak into the race. Make Music for Me actually ended up finishing fourth as a huge longshot, charging from over twenty lengths behind to nab the spot.
We all know that horses will drop out of consideration during the next two weeks, even if it’s not due to injury. So who will make the earnings cut and who will not?
Let’s take a look:
1 Uncle Mo – Overcoming a GI infection; questionable
2 Dialed In – Will run if healthy
3 Archarcharch - Will run if healthy
4 Comma to the Top – Likely to run
5 Toby’s Corner - Will run if healthy
6 Pants On Fire - Will run if healthy
7 Midnight Interlude - Will run if healthy
8 J P’s Gusto - Questionable
9 Soldat - Will run if healthy
10 Brilliant Speed - Will run if healthy
11 Master of Hounds – Likely to run
12 Nehro - Will run if healthy
13 Twice the Appeal - Will run if healthy
14 Mucho Macho Man - Will run if healthy
15 Decisive Moment - Will run if healthy
16 Animal Kingdom – Will run if he breezes well over dirt
17 The Factor - Questionable
18 Stay Thirsty – Likely to run
19 Jaycito – Overcoming a foot bruise; will run if healthy
20 Santiva - Will run if healthy
21 Watch Me Go - Will run if healthy
22 Shackleford - Will run if healthy
23 Twinspired - May run if he makes earnings cut
24 Silver Medallion – Will run if he wins the Lexington
25 Anthony’s Cross – Questionable
26 Blue Laser – Hasn’t breezed in two weeks; questionable
27 Flashpoint – Questionable
28 Mr. Commons – Questionable
29 Sway Away – Questionable
30 Norman Asbjornson - Questionable
Let’s say for just a moment that Silver Medallion wins the Lexington. And let’s also say that all of the horses whose status remain in question were to withdraw from the race.
All of a sudden, the earnings list looks like this:
1 Dialed In – Will run if healthy
2 Archarcharch - Will run if healthy
3 Comma to the Top - Questionable
4 Toby’s Corner - Will run if healthy
5 Pants On Fire - Will run if healthy
6 Midnight Interlude - Will run if healthy
7 Soldat - Will run if healthy
8 Brilliant Speed - Will run if healthy
9 Master of Hounds – Likely to run
10 Nehro - Will run if healthy
11 Twice the Appeal - Will run if healthy
12 Mucho Macho Man - Will run if healthy
13 Silver Medallion – Will run if he wins the Lexington
14 Decisive Moment - Will run if healthy
15 Stay Thirsty – Likely to run
16 Santiva - Will run if healthy
17 Watch Me Go - Will run if healthy
18 Shackleford - Will run if healthy
19 Twinspired – May run if he makes earnings cut
20 Anthony’s Cross – Will likely run if he makes earnings cut
Under these circumstances, not only would Watch Me Go, Shackleford, and Twinspired get into the field, but Anthony’s Cross would too.
Now let’s say that two other horses were to withdraw from the Derby for some reason. We don’t want to see that happen, but suppose for a moment that it did. This would allow Blue Laser and Flashpoint into the field.
But neither are likely to run – Blue Laser hasn’t breezed in a while, and Flashpoint is being considered for the Preakness.
Now we are presented with an interesting situation. This would allow Santa Anita Derby third place finisher Mr. Commons into the race. But he isn’t really under consideration for the Derby. This would allow Sway Away to get into the race.
But suppose for a moment that Silver Medallion is upset in the Lexington, and some other horse without any graded – such as Prime Cut – was to win. This would put Prime Cut’s graded earnings at $120,000 – equal to Mr. Commons’.
Would Prime Cut run in the Derby if he had the opportunity? It’s hard to say, for he is actually being considered more for the Preakness. But the point is he could potentially make the field. That is how much the graded earnings list can change in those last two weeks.
-Keelerman
The field for the 2011 Kentucky Derby is pretty much set now. Only three graded stakes races for three-year-olds remain prior to the Run for the Roses, the three races being the Lexington Stakes (gr. III), Jerome Handicap (gr. II), and the Derby Trial (gr. III). Of the trio, only the Lexington is expected to turn out a Derby contender.
So who will make the earnings cut and who won’t?
The Kentucky Derby field is limited to twenty starters. If more than twenty enter, than the horses with the highest earnings in graded stakes races get into the race. Big, rich graded stakes races – like the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) or the Florida Derby (gr. I) – all but guarantee their winners a berth in the Derby thanks to their rich purses.
Here’s an up-to-date list of the top Derby contenders by graded stakes earnings:
http://www.drf.com/news/2011-kentucky-derby-contenders-ranked-graded-earnings
If all of the top twenty horses were to run in the Derby, than Watch Me Go, Shackleford, Twinspired would all be kept from the Derby field. They are all worthy of running on the first Saturday in May – Watch Me Go is the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) winner, Shackleford was beaten a nose while second in the Florida Derby (gr. I), and Twinspired was second by a head in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I).
But the question is, will they actually be excluded?
That is the mystery of the Derby that keeps everyone guessing all the way up until the day the entries are drawn – who will be excluded. Because time after time, year after year, horses who had the earnings to run in the Derby dropped out in the final days before the race.
Last year was a perfect example. In the final week prior to the Derby, Eskendereya, Rule, Interactif, and Endorsement all dropped out due to a variety of reasons. This enabled Homeboykris, Jackson Bend, Backtalk, and Make Music for Me to sneak into the race. Make Music for Me actually ended up finishing fourth as a huge longshot, charging from over twenty lengths behind to nab the spot.
We all know that horses will drop out of consideration during the next two weeks, even if it’s not due to injury. So who will make the earnings cut and who will not?
Let’s take a look:
1 Uncle Mo – Overcoming a GI infection; questionable
2 Dialed In – Will run if healthy
3 Archarcharch - Will run if healthy
4 Comma to the Top – Likely to run
5 Toby’s Corner - Will run if healthy
6 Pants On Fire - Will run if healthy
7 Midnight Interlude - Will run if healthy
8 J P’s Gusto - Questionable
9 Soldat - Will run if healthy
10 Brilliant Speed - Will run if healthy
11 Master of Hounds – Likely to run
12 Nehro - Will run if healthy
13 Twice the Appeal - Will run if healthy
14 Mucho Macho Man - Will run if healthy
15 Decisive Moment - Will run if healthy
16 Animal Kingdom – Will run if he breezes well over dirt
17 The Factor - Questionable
18 Stay Thirsty – Likely to run
19 Jaycito – Overcoming a foot bruise; will run if healthy
20 Santiva - Will run if healthy
21 Watch Me Go - Will run if healthy
22 Shackleford - Will run if healthy
23 Twinspired - May run if he makes earnings cut
24 Silver Medallion – Will run if he wins the Lexington
25 Anthony’s Cross – Questionable
26 Blue Laser – Hasn’t breezed in two weeks; questionable
27 Flashpoint – Questionable
28 Mr. Commons – Questionable
29 Sway Away – Questionable
30 Norman Asbjornson - Questionable
Let’s say for just a moment that Silver Medallion wins the Lexington. And let’s also say that all of the horses whose status remain in question were to withdraw from the race.
All of a sudden, the earnings list looks like this:
1 Dialed In – Will run if healthy
2 Archarcharch - Will run if healthy
3 Comma to the Top - Questionable
4 Toby’s Corner - Will run if healthy
5 Pants On Fire - Will run if healthy
6 Midnight Interlude - Will run if healthy
7 Soldat - Will run if healthy
8 Brilliant Speed - Will run if healthy
9 Master of Hounds – Likely to run
10 Nehro - Will run if healthy
11 Twice the Appeal - Will run if healthy
12 Mucho Macho Man - Will run if healthy
13 Silver Medallion – Will run if he wins the Lexington
14 Decisive Moment - Will run if healthy
15 Stay Thirsty – Likely to run
16 Santiva - Will run if healthy
17 Watch Me Go - Will run if healthy
18 Shackleford - Will run if healthy
19 Twinspired – May run if he makes earnings cut
20 Anthony’s Cross – Will likely run if he makes earnings cut
Under these circumstances, not only would Watch Me Go, Shackleford, and Twinspired get into the field, but Anthony’s Cross would too.
Now let’s say that two other horses were to withdraw from the Derby for some reason. We don’t want to see that happen, but suppose for a moment that it did. This would allow Blue Laser and Flashpoint into the field.
But neither are likely to run – Blue Laser hasn’t breezed in a while, and Flashpoint is being considered for the Preakness.
Now we are presented with an interesting situation. This would allow Santa Anita Derby third place finisher Mr. Commons into the race. But he isn’t really under consideration for the Derby. This would allow Sway Away to get into the race.
But suppose for a moment that Silver Medallion is upset in the Lexington, and some other horse without any graded – such as Prime Cut – was to win. This would put Prime Cut’s graded earnings at $120,000 – equal to Mr. Commons’.
Would Prime Cut run in the Derby if he had the opportunity? It’s hard to say, for he is actually being considered more for the Preakness. But the point is he could potentially make the field. That is how much the graded earnings list can change in those last two weeks.
-Keelerman
J.R.'S TOP TEN ---- April 22nd, 2011
1. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
Inherits the top spot from Elite Alex, who disappointed in the Arkansas Derby. This colt has quite the late kick, and I believe that he has the speed to stay about mid-pack early.
2. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
He was charging like few horses can in the Arkansas Derby, cutting down Archarcharch with every giant stride. He should be able to adapt to any pace setup in the Derby.
3. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Arkansas Derby triumph makes him as serious a contender as any other. I love the way that he kicked clear in the stretch. He may have more acceleration than many of his rivals.
4. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He's arrived at Churchill now, and has continued to train well. I'm positive that he can win at a mile and a quarter, and he has the speed to get himself in a good spot early on.
5. Master of Hounds - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
With the American three-year-olds looking pretty unimpressive, he's got as good a chance at any. Whether he can handle dirt, however, remains a big question.
6. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Now that The Factor and Uncle Mo have disappointed, his chances of winning the Derby have improved. But I still doubt that he'll be able to rally through traffic in time to win.
7. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
Doubt that a horse that didn't race at two will win the Derby, but his Santa Anita Derby victory was sharp.
8. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Gets another chance at the graded earnings in the Lexington Stakes. May be better on synthetics than dirt, but I give him at chance at winning the Derby.
9. Brilliant Speed - Trained by Tom Albertrani
Closed his final three eighths in about :34 3/5 when winning the Blue Grass. That's incredibly fast. If his form translates to dirt, which it may not, he will be dangerous at Churchill.
10. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
I'm thinking that this colt will offer a decent price, and he may be better than most think. He got a rotten trip in the Spiral, and seems to like Churchill Downs. Hmm. . .
-J.R.
Inherits the top spot from Elite Alex, who disappointed in the Arkansas Derby. This colt has quite the late kick, and I believe that he has the speed to stay about mid-pack early.
2. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
He was charging like few horses can in the Arkansas Derby, cutting down Archarcharch with every giant stride. He should be able to adapt to any pace setup in the Derby.
3. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
Arkansas Derby triumph makes him as serious a contender as any other. I love the way that he kicked clear in the stretch. He may have more acceleration than many of his rivals.
4. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He's arrived at Churchill now, and has continued to train well. I'm positive that he can win at a mile and a quarter, and he has the speed to get himself in a good spot early on.
5. Master of Hounds - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
With the American three-year-olds looking pretty unimpressive, he's got as good a chance at any. Whether he can handle dirt, however, remains a big question.
6. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Now that The Factor and Uncle Mo have disappointed, his chances of winning the Derby have improved. But I still doubt that he'll be able to rally through traffic in time to win.
7. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
Doubt that a horse that didn't race at two will win the Derby, but his Santa Anita Derby victory was sharp.
8. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Gets another chance at the graded earnings in the Lexington Stakes. May be better on synthetics than dirt, but I give him at chance at winning the Derby.
9. Brilliant Speed - Trained by Tom Albertrani
Closed his final three eighths in about :34 3/5 when winning the Blue Grass. That's incredibly fast. If his form translates to dirt, which it may not, he will be dangerous at Churchill.
10. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
I'm thinking that this colt will offer a decent price, and he may be better than most think. He got a rotten trip in the Spiral, and seems to like Churchill Downs. Hmm. . .
-J.R.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- April 20th, 2011
1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Not much to say about him until he records his final Derby breeze. In the days following the Florida Derby, I wondered from time to time if it was wise to have him above Uncle Mo and The Factor. Now, it seems perfectly logical.
2. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He has been breezing extremely well at Gulfstream Park -- and has arrived at Churchill Downs to prepare for the Derby. As long as he continues to train well at Churchill, he will remain in my top five.
3. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I was really impressed by this colt's late run in the Arkansas Derby. He has now finished second in two $1,000,000 Derby preps. A versatile colt, he has proven himself to be a legitimate contender.
4. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
This colt just keeps getting better. True, Nehro was closing into his lead rapidly in the Arkansas Derby. But Archarcharch seemed to have more acceleration, and that will be very useful in the Kentucky Derby.
5. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
He has arrived at Churchill Downs to prepare for the Kentucky Derby. Of course, we still don't know for sure that he will even run in the race -- according to Todd Pletcher, he must be 100% in order to run in the Kentucky Derby.
6. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
We won't know much more about this colt until he breezes again. His position on this list will be determined from here on out by how well he works out leading up to the biggest race of his life.
7. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
This colt is going to have to overcome a lot of history in order to win the Derby. . . but on the other hand, he overcame great adversity to win the Santa Anita Derby, so maybe it doesn't matter that he didn't race at two and broke his maiden in March. Breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5 at Santa Anita this morning.
8. Pants On Fire - Trained by Kelly Breen
Recorded his first workout since the Louisiana Derby on April 15th, scorching five furlongs in :58.70 at Fair Grounds. This colt seems to be getting good at the right time.
9. Master of Hounds - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
Runner-up in this year's UEA Derby (Group II) in Dubai, this colt will likely ship to Churchill Downs to compete in the Kentucky Derby. He's been here before -- he ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year -- but has never raced on dirt before. On the other hand, he has raced farther than any of the other colts on this list ever have.
10. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
The Lexington Stakes (gr. III) this Saturday at Keeneland is likely for this colt, who lacks the sufficient graded earnings to make the Derby field. He likely wouldn't have to win the race to get into the Derby -- just second or perhaps even third. But I would like to see him turn in a strong performance in order to remain a legitimate contender.
11. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Roman
The Florida Derby runner-up is on the graded earnings bubble, but has already arrived at Churchill Downs to begin training. He hasn't worked out since the Florida Derby, which worries me just a bit, but I'm sure that he'll breeze soon.
12. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
A troubled trip cost him any chance at winning the Blue Grass Stakes, and he ended up finishing ninth. It's hard to say how well it will set him up for the Derby, but I wouldn't count him out.
13. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Like Shackleford, Soldat has not recorded a workout since the Florida Derby. He is currently still at Palm Meadows and won't be shipping to Churchill Downs for a while. I expect him to breeze within the next few days.
14. Animal Kingdom - Trained by H. Motion
Breezed a sharp five furlongs in :59 1/5 on April 16th at Keeneland, but whether or not he competes in the Derby will depend a great deal on his next workout, which will come over the Churchill Downs main track. If it's a good breeze, he will likely run. If not, he's nominated to the American Turf Stakes (gr. II) on Kentucky Oaks day.
15. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
His loss as the heavy favorite in the Arkansas Derby could be explained by a number of things. Perhaps he needs the lead in order to win, something he did not get in Arkansas. Perhaps he can't handle the distance, which doesn't seem likely seeing how he powered away in the stretch of the Rebel Stakes. I've read that a displaced palete was the cause of his poor performance. If that is the case, than I can see him rebounding in the Derby. Whether or not he runs in the big race is another question entirely.
16. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
He had a really nice breeze on April 17th at Churchill Downs, working a half-mile in :47 2/5. He will be a longshot in the Derby, but he may be getting good at the right time.
17. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Decisive Moment, he recorded a workout at Churchill Downs, breezing a half-mile in :48 flat on April 17th. Hard to see him rebounding off of his sub-par Florida Derby performance to win the Kentucky Derby, but if he trains well I wouldn't count him out.
18. Brilliant Speed - Trained by Thomas Albertrani
I must admit, he lived up to his name in the Blue Grass Stakes. He closed his final three-eighths in less than 35 seconds and was simply flying at the finish. But that was over Keeneland's Polytrack. Can he show the same late burst of speed on dirt? We won't know until the Derby.
19. Twice the Appeal - Trained by Jeff Bonde
The Sunland Derby winner has plenty of graded stakes earnings, but whether or not he is good enough to win a race like the Derby remains in question.
20. Anthony's Cross - Trained by Eoin Harty
With disappointing peformances by the two Derby favorites, his fifth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby doesn't look so bad. He probably wasn't at his best, having not raced in nearly two months, and should be sharper for the Derby if he gets in.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Note: I have removed Crimson China and Brethren from these lists due to the fact that both are being given breaks and most likely won't run in any Triple Crown races. I have also removed Jaycito from my Top Twenty because he may not run in the Lexington Stakes, which would leave him without a good prep for the Kentucky Derby. Finally, I removed Joe Vann because he is not nominated to the Triple Crown and is being pointed to the Ohio Derby.
Just Out of the Top
Astrology - The Jerome Handicap will be his next start.
Caleb's Posse - Was bumped hard at the start of the Arkansas Derby and never had a chance.
Dance City - Very game third in the Arkansas Derby should set him up well for the Preakness.
Elite Alex - Disappointing ninth in the Arkansas Derby cost him any chance at making the Derby field.
Jaycito - If he misses the Lexington, then there's no way that he could make the Derby.
Joyful Victory - Fantasy Stakes winner will most likely run in the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby.
Mr Commons - Good third in the Santa Anita Derby, but graded earnings are a concern.
R Heat Lightning - Kentucky Oaks favorite would be in my top twenty if she was aiming for the Derby.
Sway Away - Made a bold four-wide run in the Arkansas Derby, but flattened out to finish fourth.
Twinspired - Runner-up in the Blue Grass Stakes lacks sufficient earnings to make the Derby field.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - Beaten a neck when third in the Transylvania Stakes.
Alternation - Closed mildly in the Arkansas Derby, but needed to show more.
Bandbox - Breezed sharply recently; the Preakness isn't out of the question.
Cal Nation - Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Comma to the Top - In retrospect, he closed his final eighth in the Santa Anita Derby in :12 3/5. That is not tiring.
Kathmanblu - Will attempt to rebound in the Kentucky Oaks.
King Congie - Was beaten only a head while third in the Blue Grass, but drifted out quite a bit in the stretch.
Queen'splatekitten - Tired late in the Blue Grass after racing wide and close to the pace.
Wilkinson - Disappointing in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Clarke Lane - Wasn't entered in the Blue Grass.
Crimson Knight - Hasn't raced since the Tampa Bay Derby.
Flashpoint - Wondering where he will race next.
Indian Winter - Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby.
J P's Gusto - Tired in the Arkansas Derby after setting a quick pace.
J W Blue - Never really threatened in the Arkansas Derby.
Machen - He seems to be a cut below two turn stakes caliber.
Monzon - Not sure where he will run next.
Norman Asbjornson - Fourth in the Wood Memorial wasn't great.
Watch Me Go - Disappointing sixth in the Illinois Derby, but will run in the Kentucky Derby if he has the graded earnings.
-Keelerman
Not much to say about him until he records his final Derby breeze. In the days following the Florida Derby, I wondered from time to time if it was wise to have him above Uncle Mo and The Factor. Now, it seems perfectly logical.
2. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He has been breezing extremely well at Gulfstream Park -- and has arrived at Churchill Downs to prepare for the Derby. As long as he continues to train well at Churchill, he will remain in my top five.
3. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I was really impressed by this colt's late run in the Arkansas Derby. He has now finished second in two $1,000,000 Derby preps. A versatile colt, he has proven himself to be a legitimate contender.
4. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
This colt just keeps getting better. True, Nehro was closing into his lead rapidly in the Arkansas Derby. But Archarcharch seemed to have more acceleration, and that will be very useful in the Kentucky Derby.
5. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
He has arrived at Churchill Downs to prepare for the Kentucky Derby. Of course, we still don't know for sure that he will even run in the race -- according to Todd Pletcher, he must be 100% in order to run in the Kentucky Derby.
6. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
We won't know much more about this colt until he breezes again. His position on this list will be determined from here on out by how well he works out leading up to the biggest race of his life.
7. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
This colt is going to have to overcome a lot of history in order to win the Derby. . . but on the other hand, he overcame great adversity to win the Santa Anita Derby, so maybe it doesn't matter that he didn't race at two and broke his maiden in March. Breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5 at Santa Anita this morning.
8. Pants On Fire - Trained by Kelly Breen
Recorded his first workout since the Louisiana Derby on April 15th, scorching five furlongs in :58.70 at Fair Grounds. This colt seems to be getting good at the right time.
9. Master of Hounds - Trained by Aidan O'Brien
Runner-up in this year's UEA Derby (Group II) in Dubai, this colt will likely ship to Churchill Downs to compete in the Kentucky Derby. He's been here before -- he ran in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year -- but has never raced on dirt before. On the other hand, he has raced farther than any of the other colts on this list ever have.
10. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
The Lexington Stakes (gr. III) this Saturday at Keeneland is likely for this colt, who lacks the sufficient graded earnings to make the Derby field. He likely wouldn't have to win the race to get into the Derby -- just second or perhaps even third. But I would like to see him turn in a strong performance in order to remain a legitimate contender.
11. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Roman
The Florida Derby runner-up is on the graded earnings bubble, but has already arrived at Churchill Downs to begin training. He hasn't worked out since the Florida Derby, which worries me just a bit, but I'm sure that he'll breeze soon.
12. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
A troubled trip cost him any chance at winning the Blue Grass Stakes, and he ended up finishing ninth. It's hard to say how well it will set him up for the Derby, but I wouldn't count him out.
13. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Like Shackleford, Soldat has not recorded a workout since the Florida Derby. He is currently still at Palm Meadows and won't be shipping to Churchill Downs for a while. I expect him to breeze within the next few days.
14. Animal Kingdom - Trained by H. Motion
Breezed a sharp five furlongs in :59 1/5 on April 16th at Keeneland, but whether or not he competes in the Derby will depend a great deal on his next workout, which will come over the Churchill Downs main track. If it's a good breeze, he will likely run. If not, he's nominated to the American Turf Stakes (gr. II) on Kentucky Oaks day.
15. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
His loss as the heavy favorite in the Arkansas Derby could be explained by a number of things. Perhaps he needs the lead in order to win, something he did not get in Arkansas. Perhaps he can't handle the distance, which doesn't seem likely seeing how he powered away in the stretch of the Rebel Stakes. I've read that a displaced palete was the cause of his poor performance. If that is the case, than I can see him rebounding in the Derby. Whether or not he runs in the big race is another question entirely.
16. Decisive Moment - Trained by Juan Arias
He had a really nice breeze on April 17th at Churchill Downs, working a half-mile in :47 2/5. He will be a longshot in the Derby, but he may be getting good at the right time.
17. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Decisive Moment, he recorded a workout at Churchill Downs, breezing a half-mile in :48 flat on April 17th. Hard to see him rebounding off of his sub-par Florida Derby performance to win the Kentucky Derby, but if he trains well I wouldn't count him out.
18. Brilliant Speed - Trained by Thomas Albertrani
I must admit, he lived up to his name in the Blue Grass Stakes. He closed his final three-eighths in less than 35 seconds and was simply flying at the finish. But that was over Keeneland's Polytrack. Can he show the same late burst of speed on dirt? We won't know until the Derby.
19. Twice the Appeal - Trained by Jeff Bonde
The Sunland Derby winner has plenty of graded stakes earnings, but whether or not he is good enough to win a race like the Derby remains in question.
20. Anthony's Cross - Trained by Eoin Harty
With disappointing peformances by the two Derby favorites, his fifth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby doesn't look so bad. He probably wasn't at his best, having not raced in nearly two months, and should be sharper for the Derby if he gets in.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Note: I have removed Crimson China and Brethren from these lists due to the fact that both are being given breaks and most likely won't run in any Triple Crown races. I have also removed Jaycito from my Top Twenty because he may not run in the Lexington Stakes, which would leave him without a good prep for the Kentucky Derby. Finally, I removed Joe Vann because he is not nominated to the Triple Crown and is being pointed to the Ohio Derby.
Just Out of the Top
Astrology - The Jerome Handicap will be his next start.
Caleb's Posse - Was bumped hard at the start of the Arkansas Derby and never had a chance.
Dance City - Very game third in the Arkansas Derby should set him up well for the Preakness.
Elite Alex - Disappointing ninth in the Arkansas Derby cost him any chance at making the Derby field.
Jaycito - If he misses the Lexington, then there's no way that he could make the Derby.
Joyful Victory - Fantasy Stakes winner will most likely run in the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby.
Mr Commons - Good third in the Santa Anita Derby, but graded earnings are a concern.
R Heat Lightning - Kentucky Oaks favorite would be in my top twenty if she was aiming for the Derby.
Sway Away - Made a bold four-wide run in the Arkansas Derby, but flattened out to finish fourth.
Twinspired - Runner-up in the Blue Grass Stakes lacks sufficient earnings to make the Derby field.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - Beaten a neck when third in the Transylvania Stakes.
Alternation - Closed mildly in the Arkansas Derby, but needed to show more.
Bandbox - Breezed sharply recently; the Preakness isn't out of the question.
Cal Nation - Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Comma to the Top - In retrospect, he closed his final eighth in the Santa Anita Derby in :12 3/5. That is not tiring.
Kathmanblu - Will attempt to rebound in the Kentucky Oaks.
King Congie - Was beaten only a head while third in the Blue Grass, but drifted out quite a bit in the stretch.
Queen'splatekitten - Tired late in the Blue Grass after racing wide and close to the pace.
Wilkinson - Disappointing in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Clarke Lane - Wasn't entered in the Blue Grass.
Crimson Knight - Hasn't raced since the Tampa Bay Derby.
Flashpoint - Wondering where he will race next.
Indian Winter - Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby.
J P's Gusto - Tired in the Arkansas Derby after setting a quick pace.
J W Blue - Never really threatened in the Arkansas Derby.
Machen - He seems to be a cut below two turn stakes caliber.
Monzon - Not sure where he will run next.
Norman Asbjornson - Fourth in the Wood Memorial wasn't great.
Watch Me Go - Disappointing sixth in the Illinois Derby, but will run in the Kentucky Derby if he has the graded earnings.
-Keelerman
Monday, April 18, 2011
Who will Calvin Borel ride in the 2011 Kentucky Derby?
Everyone knows who Calvin Borel is. The famous jockey, who was nominated for induction into the Hall of Fame this year, has ridden three of the last four winners of the Kentucky Derby. Famous for his rail-skimming rides, he has guided Street Sense, Mine That Bird, and Super Saver into the history books. He is the second-most winning rider at Churchill Downs only behind Pat Day, and was the regular rider of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra.
Now, as we approach the 2011 Kentucky Derby, one question stands above all:
Who will Calvin Borel ride?
Yes, the jockey who has ridden the last two Kentucky Derby winners actually does not yet have a mount for this year's edition of the Run for the Roses. Now, it would be simply unfathomable if he failed to secure a mount in the race which has made him famous; yet when one looks over the Kentucky Derby contenders, one sees few options for the famous jockey.
Out of curiosity, I compiled a list of all the top Derby contenders and the jockeys that have ridden them during their past few races.
Here is a list of top contenders and their likely Derby riders:
Archarcharch - Jon Court
Brilliant Speed - Joel Rosario
Decisive Moment - Kerwin Clark
Dialed In - Julien Leparoux
Midnight Interlude - Victor Espinoza
Mucho Macho Man - Rajiv Maragh
Pants On Fire - Rosie Napravnik
Shackleford - Jesus Castanon
Soldat - Alan Garcia
Stay Thirsty - Ramon Dominguez
The Factor - Martin Garcia
Toby's Corner - Eddie Castro
Twice the Appeal - Christian Santiago Reyes
Uncle Mo - John Velazquez
Watch Me Go - Luis Garcia
It's safe to say that the above horses will be ridden by their corresponding riders on Derby day, barring something unusual, such as an injury.
Here is where it gets interesting: the following is a list of horses whose Derby riders remain in question.
Animal Kingdom - Alan Garcia/Rajiv Maragh/Robby Albarado
Brethren - Ramon Dominguez
Comma to the Top - Corey Nakatani
J P's Gusto - M. Berry/Ramon Dominguez/Joseph Talamo/Patrick Valenzuela
Jaycito - Martin Garcia/Mike Smith
Nehro - Corey Nakatani/Michael Baze
Santiva - Julien Leparoux/Mike Smith/Shaun Bridgmohan/Javier Castellano/Edgar Prado
Silver Medallion - Garrett Gomez/Russell Baze
We'll start at the top of the list, with Animal Kingdom. This colt was ridden by Alan Garcia when he won the Vinery Spiral Stakes, by Rajiv Maragh when second in an allowance optional claiming race, and by Robby Albarado when he broke his maiden. Now, Alan Garcia is the regular rider of Soldat, winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) earlier this year. I assume that Garcia will stick with Soldat, as he is generally considered to have a better chance at winning the Derby.
What about Rajiv Maragh? He's the regular rider of Mucho Macho Man, and I can't see him abandoning that colt. This leaves us with Robby Albarado, who is actually scheduled to ride the colt during his next breeze. So I will take a guess and say that Robby Albarado ends up on Animal Kingdom in the Derby.
This brings us to Brethren, who ran very poorly in the Arkansas Derby. His regular rider is Ramon Dominguez, but Dominguez is also the regular rider of Stay Thirsty. Seeing that Stay Thirsty has the graded earnings to make the Derby and Brethren does not, I assume that Dominguez will stick with Stay Thirsty. This leaves the mount on Brethren open, but as I mentioned, he doesn't have the earnings to make the Derby.
Comma to the Top also has a regular rider in Corey Nakatani. However, Corey Nakatani rode Nehro to finish a late-closing second in the Arkansas Derby. Which horse Nakatani chooses will leave the other open to someone else.
Let's say for a moment that Nakatani chooses Comma to the Top. Who would ride Nehro in the Derby? Perhaps Michael Baze, who rode the colt when he broke his maiden and when he was second in the Louisiana Derby.
On the other hand, suppose that Nakatani chooses Nehro? Then that leaves Comma to the Top riderless. Who would ride Comma to the Top in the Derby? The mount would be wide open.
J P's Gusto could find himself being ridden by anyone in the Derby. M. Berry rode him in the Arkansas Derby. Ramon Dominguez rode him in the Rebel and the Southwest Stakes. Joseph Talamo was his rider in the CashCall Futurity, and Patrick Valenzuela was aboard in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Norfolk Stakes, Del Mar Futurity, and Best Pal Stakes. Joseph Talamo rode him in the Hollywood Juvenile Champion Stakes and Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes, and Joel Rosario was aboard in his first start.
Confused yet? So am I. Anyone could be aboard J P's Gusto in the Derby.
What about Jaycito? Martin Garcia was aboard for the colt’s first two races -- a pair of seconds in a maiden special weight and the Del Mar Futurity. Then Mike Smith took over and rode the colt to a victory in the Norfolk Stakes and a distant seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Then Martin Garcia reclaimed the mount in the San Felipe Stakes, where Jaycito ran second.
I see it this way -- if The Factor makes it to Churchill Downs, Garcia will ride him and leave Jaycito for Mike Smith. However, if The Factor does not run in the Derby, then Garcia will get the mount on Jaycito.
Then there is Santiva, who has no regular rider whatsoever. In six starts, he has had five different jockeys aboard. Obviously, Julien Leparoux -- who rode the colt in the Blue Grass Stakes -- is already committed to Dialed In. Mike Smith rode the colt in the Risen Star Stakes, and could potentially ride the colt in the Derby if he does not get the mount on Jaycito. If not Mike Smith, than Shaun Bridgmohan is always an option.
Finally, we come to Silver Medallion. Garrett Gomez was aboard the colt in the Santa Anita Derby, where he finished fourth. He was also aboard three starts back when the colt won the Eddie Logan Stakes. In between, Russell Baze rode the colt to a thrilling victory in the El Camino Real Derby. Who gets the mount on Silver Medallion much depends on who rides him in the upcoming Lexington Stakes. I would guess that Garrett Gomez will be aboard.
So whose does this leave Calvin Borel with? The way I see it, he could potentially be aboard Animal Kingdom, Brethren, Comma to the Top, J P's Gusto, Nehro, or Santiva. Of those, I highly doubt that Brethren will make the Derby, and I suspect that Animal Kingdom and Santiva will end up with other riders. This leaves Borel with:
Comma to the Top
J P's Gusto
Nehro
It's a slim group of horses, but it's better than nothing. Although Comma to the Top and J P's Gusto both have apparent distance limitations, Nehro looks like a legitimate Derby contender. Who will Borel ride? That remains to be seen. But I'll take a guess and say that he ends up on Nehro.
Who do you think he will ride?
-Keelerman
Now, as we approach the 2011 Kentucky Derby, one question stands above all:
Who will Calvin Borel ride?
Yes, the jockey who has ridden the last two Kentucky Derby winners actually does not yet have a mount for this year's edition of the Run for the Roses. Now, it would be simply unfathomable if he failed to secure a mount in the race which has made him famous; yet when one looks over the Kentucky Derby contenders, one sees few options for the famous jockey.
Out of curiosity, I compiled a list of all the top Derby contenders and the jockeys that have ridden them during their past few races.
Here is a list of top contenders and their likely Derby riders:
Archarcharch - Jon Court
Brilliant Speed - Joel Rosario
Decisive Moment - Kerwin Clark
Dialed In - Julien Leparoux
Midnight Interlude - Victor Espinoza
Mucho Macho Man - Rajiv Maragh
Pants On Fire - Rosie Napravnik
Shackleford - Jesus Castanon
Soldat - Alan Garcia
Stay Thirsty - Ramon Dominguez
The Factor - Martin Garcia
Toby's Corner - Eddie Castro
Twice the Appeal - Christian Santiago Reyes
Uncle Mo - John Velazquez
Watch Me Go - Luis Garcia
It's safe to say that the above horses will be ridden by their corresponding riders on Derby day, barring something unusual, such as an injury.
Here is where it gets interesting: the following is a list of horses whose Derby riders remain in question.
Animal Kingdom - Alan Garcia/Rajiv Maragh/Robby Albarado
Brethren - Ramon Dominguez
Comma to the Top - Corey Nakatani
J P's Gusto - M. Berry/Ramon Dominguez/Joseph Talamo/Patrick Valenzuela
Jaycito - Martin Garcia/Mike Smith
Nehro - Corey Nakatani/Michael Baze
Santiva - Julien Leparoux/Mike Smith/Shaun Bridgmohan/Javier Castellano/Edgar Prado
Silver Medallion - Garrett Gomez/Russell Baze
We'll start at the top of the list, with Animal Kingdom. This colt was ridden by Alan Garcia when he won the Vinery Spiral Stakes, by Rajiv Maragh when second in an allowance optional claiming race, and by Robby Albarado when he broke his maiden. Now, Alan Garcia is the regular rider of Soldat, winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) earlier this year. I assume that Garcia will stick with Soldat, as he is generally considered to have a better chance at winning the Derby.
What about Rajiv Maragh? He's the regular rider of Mucho Macho Man, and I can't see him abandoning that colt. This leaves us with Robby Albarado, who is actually scheduled to ride the colt during his next breeze. So I will take a guess and say that Robby Albarado ends up on Animal Kingdom in the Derby.
This brings us to Brethren, who ran very poorly in the Arkansas Derby. His regular rider is Ramon Dominguez, but Dominguez is also the regular rider of Stay Thirsty. Seeing that Stay Thirsty has the graded earnings to make the Derby and Brethren does not, I assume that Dominguez will stick with Stay Thirsty. This leaves the mount on Brethren open, but as I mentioned, he doesn't have the earnings to make the Derby.
Comma to the Top also has a regular rider in Corey Nakatani. However, Corey Nakatani rode Nehro to finish a late-closing second in the Arkansas Derby. Which horse Nakatani chooses will leave the other open to someone else.
Let's say for a moment that Nakatani chooses Comma to the Top. Who would ride Nehro in the Derby? Perhaps Michael Baze, who rode the colt when he broke his maiden and when he was second in the Louisiana Derby.
On the other hand, suppose that Nakatani chooses Nehro? Then that leaves Comma to the Top riderless. Who would ride Comma to the Top in the Derby? The mount would be wide open.
J P's Gusto could find himself being ridden by anyone in the Derby. M. Berry rode him in the Arkansas Derby. Ramon Dominguez rode him in the Rebel and the Southwest Stakes. Joseph Talamo was his rider in the CashCall Futurity, and Patrick Valenzuela was aboard in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Norfolk Stakes, Del Mar Futurity, and Best Pal Stakes. Joseph Talamo rode him in the Hollywood Juvenile Champion Stakes and Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes, and Joel Rosario was aboard in his first start.
Confused yet? So am I. Anyone could be aboard J P's Gusto in the Derby.
What about Jaycito? Martin Garcia was aboard for the colt’s first two races -- a pair of seconds in a maiden special weight and the Del Mar Futurity. Then Mike Smith took over and rode the colt to a victory in the Norfolk Stakes and a distant seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Then Martin Garcia reclaimed the mount in the San Felipe Stakes, where Jaycito ran second.
I see it this way -- if The Factor makes it to Churchill Downs, Garcia will ride him and leave Jaycito for Mike Smith. However, if The Factor does not run in the Derby, then Garcia will get the mount on Jaycito.
Then there is Santiva, who has no regular rider whatsoever. In six starts, he has had five different jockeys aboard. Obviously, Julien Leparoux -- who rode the colt in the Blue Grass Stakes -- is already committed to Dialed In. Mike Smith rode the colt in the Risen Star Stakes, and could potentially ride the colt in the Derby if he does not get the mount on Jaycito. If not Mike Smith, than Shaun Bridgmohan is always an option.
Finally, we come to Silver Medallion. Garrett Gomez was aboard the colt in the Santa Anita Derby, where he finished fourth. He was also aboard three starts back when the colt won the Eddie Logan Stakes. In between, Russell Baze rode the colt to a thrilling victory in the El Camino Real Derby. Who gets the mount on Silver Medallion much depends on who rides him in the upcoming Lexington Stakes. I would guess that Garrett Gomez will be aboard.
So whose does this leave Calvin Borel with? The way I see it, he could potentially be aboard Animal Kingdom, Brethren, Comma to the Top, J P's Gusto, Nehro, or Santiva. Of those, I highly doubt that Brethren will make the Derby, and I suspect that Animal Kingdom and Santiva will end up with other riders. This leaves Borel with:
Comma to the Top
J P's Gusto
Nehro
It's a slim group of horses, but it's better than nothing. Although Comma to the Top and J P's Gusto both have apparent distance limitations, Nehro looks like a legitimate Derby contender. Who will Borel ride? That remains to be seen. But I'll take a guess and say that he ends up on Nehro.
Who do you think he will ride?
-Keelerman
Saturday, April 16, 2011
ARCHARCHARCH WINS THE ARKANSAS DERBY!
In yet another Kentucky Derby prep race upset, Archarcharch took the lead in deep stretch and held off Nehro to win the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I) by a desperate nose at Oaklawn Park.
Patiently ridden by Jon Court, the son of Arch sat about mid-pack early as J P's Gusto set a quick early pace. In second was Dance City, while the 4-5 favorite The Factor sat in third. Also up close was Saratoga Red.
On the far turn, Dance City and The Factor made there bids for the lead on the outside of J P's Gusto. Sway Away too was poised on the outside, just waiting to make his bid for the lead.
Turning for home, The Factor began to tire, and quickly dropped out of contention. Dance City put away J P's Gusto and Sway Away and began to kick clear. Suddenly, Archarcharch appeared on the outside. With ground-devouring strides, he passed Dance City and appeared to be on his way to an easy victory.
But then Nehro entered the picture. On the extreme outside he charged home, closing a huge amount of ground under Corey Nakatani. But his late run fell a nose short, as Archarcharch held him off to win the race at odds of 25-1.
Dance City stayed on well to finish third, followed by Sway Away. The Factor, who never seemed to be comfortable while rating off the lead, tired to finish off the board.
-Keelerman
Patiently ridden by Jon Court, the son of Arch sat about mid-pack early as J P's Gusto set a quick early pace. In second was Dance City, while the 4-5 favorite The Factor sat in third. Also up close was Saratoga Red.
On the far turn, Dance City and The Factor made there bids for the lead on the outside of J P's Gusto. Sway Away too was poised on the outside, just waiting to make his bid for the lead.
Turning for home, The Factor began to tire, and quickly dropped out of contention. Dance City put away J P's Gusto and Sway Away and began to kick clear. Suddenly, Archarcharch appeared on the outside. With ground-devouring strides, he passed Dance City and appeared to be on his way to an easy victory.
But then Nehro entered the picture. On the extreme outside he charged home, closing a huge amount of ground under Corey Nakatani. But his late run fell a nose short, as Archarcharch held him off to win the race at odds of 25-1.
Dance City stayed on well to finish third, followed by Sway Away. The Factor, who never seemed to be comfortable while rating off the lead, tired to finish off the board.
-Keelerman
BRILLIANT SPEED WINS THE BLUE GRASS STAKES!
In a simply tremendous upset, 19-1 shot Brilliant Speed rallied furiously on the far outside to win the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) by a nose.
Ridden by Joel Rosario, the colt -- who was entering off of a close third in the Hallandale Beach Stakes on turf -- sat dead last in the early goin, well off of a slow early pace. That slow early pace was set by Joes Blazing Aaron, who clicked off fractions of :25.14 and :50.33. He was being tracked by Praetereo and Twinspired. The usually late-closing Queen'splatekitten, who stumbled at the start, found himself four wide in fourth early on. Santiva, the favorite, was in tight along the rail in fifth.
On the far turn, Twinspired split horses and made a strong bid for the lead. Joes Blazing Aaron was showing signs of stopping, while Santiva was still lakcing room. Turning for home, it appeared as though Twinspired was on his was to a 24-1 upset. King Congie was closing in gamely, but he was drifting out in the stretch. Suddenly, Brilliant Speed arrived on the scene. Joel Rosario had kept his mount along the rail for the majority of the race, and his colt was full of run in the homestretch.
But was there time to catch Twinspired? Yes. Brilliant Speed angled to the far outside and closed like a rocket to win the Blue Grass in the final strides.
Twinspired finished second, a neck clear of King Congie. Newsdad finished fourth. Santiva, who lacked racing room in the homestretch, ended up ninth, beaten six lengths.
The final time was 1:50.92.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Joel Rosario, the colt -- who was entering off of a close third in the Hallandale Beach Stakes on turf -- sat dead last in the early goin, well off of a slow early pace. That slow early pace was set by Joes Blazing Aaron, who clicked off fractions of :25.14 and :50.33. He was being tracked by Praetereo and Twinspired. The usually late-closing Queen'splatekitten, who stumbled at the start, found himself four wide in fourth early on. Santiva, the favorite, was in tight along the rail in fifth.
On the far turn, Twinspired split horses and made a strong bid for the lead. Joes Blazing Aaron was showing signs of stopping, while Santiva was still lakcing room. Turning for home, it appeared as though Twinspired was on his was to a 24-1 upset. King Congie was closing in gamely, but he was drifting out in the stretch. Suddenly, Brilliant Speed arrived on the scene. Joel Rosario had kept his mount along the rail for the majority of the race, and his colt was full of run in the homestretch.
But was there time to catch Twinspired? Yes. Brilliant Speed angled to the far outside and closed like a rocket to win the Blue Grass in the final strides.
Twinspired finished second, a neck clear of King Congie. Newsdad finished fourth. Santiva, who lacked racing room in the homestretch, ended up ninth, beaten six lengths.
The final time was 1:50.92.
-Keelerman
BLUE GRASS STAKES THOUGHTS & SELECTIONS
As promised, here are my thoughts on the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I).
*************
This race is wide open. Any one of the twelve horses running could win.
I always laugh when I think of the Blue Grass Stakes, simply because of what I wrote about it last year:
"You have to give credit to this group, they are going to provide us with a spectacular race tomorrow. The field of nine is very evenly matched, and I wouldn't be surprised to see anyone here win. (Okay, I would be surprised if Stately Victor won, but you get the idea.)"
As we all know, Stately Victor powered away in the stretch to win by four lengths. :)
This year, the Blue Grass is even more wide open. I wouldn't count any horse out of winning.
I don't really like Santiva to win. I feel that this race will be won in a shocking upset.
One horse I like is Willcox Inn. The colt ran third in the grade I Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) last year over this track, and closed well in a paceless Grindstone Stakes last time out. This will be his second start off of a lengthy layoff, and I believe that he is ready for a much improved performance.
Joes Blazing Aaron is another intriguing contender. He won the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) last time out in wire-to-wire fashion, and if he gets a clear lead here he may prove impossible to catch.
King Congie, the disqualified winner of the Hallandale Beach Stakes, and Brilliant Speed, third in that same race, could also offer some value. But King Congie has been known to drift considerably in the stretch, hence his disqualification in the Hallandale. He will need to stay straight if he is to win today.
Queen'splatekitten and Crimson China both have strong late runs, but will need clean trips in order to win.
My picks:
1 Willcox Inn
2 Crimson China
3 Joes Blazing Aaron
4 Santiva
J.R.'s picks:
1 King Congie
2 Queen'splatekitten
3 Crimson China
4 Praetereo
Enjoy the race!
-Keelerman
*************
This race is wide open. Any one of the twelve horses running could win.
I always laugh when I think of the Blue Grass Stakes, simply because of what I wrote about it last year:
"You have to give credit to this group, they are going to provide us with a spectacular race tomorrow. The field of nine is very evenly matched, and I wouldn't be surprised to see anyone here win. (Okay, I would be surprised if Stately Victor won, but you get the idea.)"
As we all know, Stately Victor powered away in the stretch to win by four lengths. :)
This year, the Blue Grass is even more wide open. I wouldn't count any horse out of winning.
I don't really like Santiva to win. I feel that this race will be won in a shocking upset.
One horse I like is Willcox Inn. The colt ran third in the grade I Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) last year over this track, and closed well in a paceless Grindstone Stakes last time out. This will be his second start off of a lengthy layoff, and I believe that he is ready for a much improved performance.
Joes Blazing Aaron is another intriguing contender. He won the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) last time out in wire-to-wire fashion, and if he gets a clear lead here he may prove impossible to catch.
King Congie, the disqualified winner of the Hallandale Beach Stakes, and Brilliant Speed, third in that same race, could also offer some value. But King Congie has been known to drift considerably in the stretch, hence his disqualification in the Hallandale. He will need to stay straight if he is to win today.
Queen'splatekitten and Crimson China both have strong late runs, but will need clean trips in order to win.
My picks:
1 Willcox Inn
2 Crimson China
3 Joes Blazing Aaron
4 Santiva
J.R.'s picks:
1 King Congie
2 Queen'splatekitten
3 Crimson China
4 Praetereo
Enjoy the race!
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- April 16th, 2011
The final major Kentucky Derby prep races are being run today – the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I) and the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Among the horses running in those two races are current Derby favorite The Factor, the promising Elite Alex and Nehro, proven contender Santiva, and a host of other budding stars.
Today’s feature race shall be the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, in which The Factor attempts to prove that he can succeed going a mile and an eighth.
FEATURE RACE: Arkansas Derby (gr. I)
$1,000,000 Purse/Nine Furlongs/Oaklawn Park Main Track
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Nehro (5-1)
2 Elite Alex (8-1)
3 The Factor (7-5)
4 Brethren (10-1)
5 Sway Away (6-1)
6 Caleb’s Posse (10-1, coupled with Alternation)
7 Truman’s Commander (30-1)
8 Alternation (10-1, coupled with Caleb’s Posse)
9 Dance City (15-1)
10 Archarcharch (12-1)
11 J P’s Gusto (15-1)
12 J W Blue (30-1)
13 Saratoga Red (30-1)
Drawing the rail is Nehro, a lightly raced son of Mineshaft who has shown a great deal of promise in his first four starts. He ran poorly in his first two starts, finishing fourth and tenth, but turned into a different horse in his third start. Sent off at 15-1 in a one-mile maiden special weight, he rocketed from ten lengths off the pace with a half-mile to go, to win by an impressive 4 ½ lengths. He was then entered in the $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby (gr. II), which was a major step-up in class. A major longshot at 36-1, he ran a huge race to finish second, beaten only a neck by Pants On Fire. If he runs that well again today, he can win. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.
Elite Alex has drawn gate two. A son of Afleet Alex, he has shown a great deal of promise and will likely be among the favorites here. Trained by Tim Ritchey, he broke his maiden by three-quarters of a length going five furlongs last July. But he was put away after that, and did not race or breeze again until late October. He returned to the races in January of this year, and ran an amazing second to Alternation in an allowance optional claiming race despite stumbling badly at the start. In the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), he closed from far back to finish third, beaten about two lengths by Archarcharch. In his most recent start, the Louisiana Derby, he closed from fifteen lengths behind to finish fourth, beaten 4 ¼ lengths. But don’t expect to see him that far back today. He will be wearing blinkers for the first time, and he is expected to be quite a bit closer to the pace this time around. If he gets a good trip, he could very well win. Calvin Borel will ride.
This brings us to the brilliant The Factor, the morning line favorite. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of War Front has unbelievable speed. He broke his maiden at Santa Anita Park second time out in December of last year, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight by 8 ¼ lengths. . . in 1:06 4/5. He displayed equally impressive speed in the San Vicente Stakes, which he won by three-quarters of a length in 1:20 1/5. But he had yet to prove that he could succeed around two turns.
Fast forward to the mile and a sixteenth Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park. The Factor was the mild favorite, but he ran like he was 1-20. He broke quickly and went straight to the lead. No one got within two lengths of him, as he kicked away in the stretch to win by 6 ¼ lengths in a sharp 1:42 flat. He has been breezing well since then for this race, but he still must prove one thing – that he can handle early pressure and still hang on to win. In the Rebel Stakes, he was the lone speed. Today, at least two and perhaps more horses will be challenging him for the early lead. If he can win this afternoon, he will head to Louisville as the heavy Kentucky Derby favorite. Martin Garcia will ride.
Brethren has drawn gate four. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Distorted Humor swept to victories in his first three starts: a maiden special weight, an allowance race, and the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III). In the latter, he drew off powerfully in the stretch to win by 4 ½ lengths. These impressive performances earned him the status as the 1-2 favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II). However, he never really settled in that race, and ended up finishing third behind Watch Me Go and Crimson Knight. But he has been training brilliantly up to this race, and will be wearing blinkers for the first time. I expect a much improved performance from the colt, who is a half-brother to last year’s Derby winner Super Saver. Ramon Dominguez has the mount.
The next horse in the field is Sway Away, who will probably be the third or fourth choice in the field. A son of Afleet Alex, the colt showed great promise in two starts as a juvenile, breaking his maiden impressively and finishing second in the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II). But a setback apparently occurred after that, for he did not race again until the February of this year when he ran in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II). Far off of a quick early pace, he closed furiously in deep stretch but fell three-quarters of a length short of catching The Factor. That performance earned him the status as second choice in the Rebel Stakes, where he would meet The Factor again. However, the colt ran a disappointing sixth of nine and never reached contention. But it was discovered after the race that he had lost a tooth at some point during the running, so it may be best to just forget about the performance altogether. Trained by Jeff Bonde, the colt will be wearing blinkers for the first time. Patrick Valenzuela will ride
Caleb’s Posse has drawn gate six. A son of Posse, he is one of the more heavily-raced horses in the field with nine starts. A stakes winner at two, the bay colt impressively won the Smarty Jones Stakes over this track in January. But in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), a horrible trip ensued and he finished a non-threatening sixth. Sent off at nearly 25-1 in the Rebel, he managed to run a strong second despite a less-than-ideal trip. Trained by Donnie Von Hemel, if he gets a decent trip today he could pull off the upset. E Razo Jr. has the mount.
Truman’s Commander is an intriguing longshot. He made three starts as a juvenile, running fourth twice and third once. The son of Friends Lake was then put away for the year, returning on March 6th to compete in a one-mile maiden special weight. He ran huge, powering away in the stretch to win by six lengths. He has a lot going for him here – he is trained by Nick Zito, he has a couple of recent sharp workouts, he’s making his second start off of a layoff, etc. etc. I wouldn’t count him out. Israel Ocampa has the mount.
This brings us to Alternation. A son of Distorted Humor, he has won three of his four starts, and brings a three-race winning streak into this race. He defeated Elite Alex in an allowance optional claiming race earlier this year, and then defeated older horses in his most recent start. Although he was entered in the Rebel Stakes, he pitched a fit in the gate and was scratched by the track veterinarian. But it apparently wasn’t a big deal, for he’s back to try and stamp his ticket to the Derby this afternoon. He will likely have to win in order to secure the necessary graded earnings, however. Trained by Donnie Vom Hemel, he will be ridden by L. Quinonez.
Next up is the promising Dance City. A son of City Zip, the speedy colt broke his maiden in an impressive performance second time out, winning a nine-furlong sloppy-track maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Sent off as a mile longshot in his most recent race, a one-mile allowance race, he set the pace before losing the lead at the eighth pole. However, he did not finish second. He did not finish third. Instead, he came back on to defeat heavy favorite Cal Nation by a nose. It’s hard to say if he is capable of defeating a quality field such as this one, but expect him to be right there turning for home. He has been training sharply for this race, and you never know what trainer Todd Pletcher has up his sleeve. Javier Castellano has the mount.
Archarcharch has drawn gate ten. A son of (who else!) Arch, the colt showed a great deal of promise when he broke his maiden in a stakes race, the six-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes. However, when sent off as the even-money favorite in the Smarty Jones Stakes, he finished a dismal fourth behind Caleb’s Posse. But he rebounded sharply at 14-1 on the Southwest Stakes, kicking away at the top of the stretch and holding off J P’s Gusto to win the race by a length. He ran just as well in the Rebel Stakes, finishing third while beaten only a neck for second after being rank in the early going. If he can relax and get to the rail today, he may just have the talent to win. Trained by William Fires, Jon Court will ride.
J P’s Gusto has drawn gate eleven. He is the veteran of the field, with ten starts and numerous graded stakes wins under his belt. He won the Del Mar Futurity last year (gr. I) and ran second in both the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). In his 2011 debut, he ran a strong second to Archarcharch in the Southwest. However, despite being well-bet in the Rebel Stakes, he ran a dull seventh. It’s difficult to say why he ran so poorly, but it’s probably best to just ignore the performance and judge him off of his previous performances. Trained by Joe Petalino, the son of Successful Appeal will be wearing blinkers for the first time and may press the pace in the early going. M. Berry has the mount.
This brings us to J W Blue, who will probably be one of, if not the, longest shot in the field. Trained by Anthony Dutrow, the son of Sky Mesa has developed a pattern in his racing performances – lose one by a huge margin, win one, lose one by a huge margin, etc. etc. He was beaten by over eleven lengths in his first start, a one-mile maiden special weight, but rebounded to win a similar event by a length. In his third start, he ran fourth beaten about ten lengths in an allowance optional claiming race. He then won an allowance race by 1 ½ lengths. Last time out, he ran fifth beaten eight lengths in the Rebel Stakes. However, it can be argued that the Rebel was actually his best performance to date, for he was only beaten 1 ¾ lengths for second. I believe that he may outrun his odds this afternoon. He will be ridden by J. Rocco Jr.
Finally, we come to Saratoga Red. A son of Eddington, the colt has only made two starts thus far. But they have been impressive. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the colt broke his maiden by a neck over Zoebear, who recently ran second in the Illinois Derby. He then ran in the Rebel Stakes, where at odds of 34.70-1 he ran fourth, beaten 7 ¾ lengths. But it was actually a very good performance. He chased the quick early pace set by The Factor and held on well to be beaten only 1 ½ lengths for second. Although he is facing a very difficult task, I wouldn’t count him out of hitting the board.
Now, this is a very difficult race to handicap. For the win, I have considered Nehro, Elite Alex, The Factor, Brethren, Caleb’s Posse, Truman’s Commander, Alternation, and Archarcharch. This is just an extremely evenly matched field! Obviously, if The Factor runs like he did in the Rebel, he will be very tough to beat. But I see him receiving more early pressure today, and I believe that he will tire in the final sixteenth to lose the race.
As for the others:
Nehro – May bounce off of his Louisiana Derby effort.
Elite Alex – Will the blinkers soften his late kick?
Brethren – Needs to show a great deal more than he has in the past.
Caleb’s Posse – Does he have the talent?
Truman’s Commander – I have a gut feeling that he may run well.
Alternation – Hasn’t raced in about two months.
Archarcharch – Does he have the talent?
Many questions will be answered today, and many of these quality horses will be shut out of the Kentucky Derby if they don’t finish in the top two. This is a pick-a-number-and-hope-for-the-best race.
Thus, my picks:
1 Caleb’s Posse
2 Elite Alex
3 The Factor
4 Truman’s Commander
5 Nehro
6 J W Blue
7 Brethren
8 Archarcharch
9 J P’s Gusto
10 Alternation
11 Sway Away
12 Saratoga Red
13 Dance City
To be perfectly honest, I have absolutely no idea how this race will unfold. Chances are, one of the top contenders will run poorly. And chances are, a longshot will rally for a major piece of the purse. But I’m confident that Caleb’s Posse will run a great race if he gets a good trip. But he must defeat The Factor – and that’s easier said than done.
J.R. is also quite puzzled by this race. So he decided to toss the favorites altogether and go with a longshot – that longshot being Truman’s Commander. We both really like this colt, but he is a bit bolder than I am when handicapping races, and is willing to take a chance with a 30-1 shot.
His complete selections are:
1 Truman’s Commander
2 Nehro
3 Archarcharch
4 Elite Alex
5 Brethren
6 The Factor
7 J W Blue
8 Caleb’s Posse
9 J P’s Gusto
10 Alternation
11 Sway Away
12 Dance City
13 Saratoga Red
Now, as much as J.R. likes Elite Alex for the Kentucky Derby, he doesn’t believe that the colt will run better than fourth here. If Elite Alex does not finish in the top two, then he will likely miss the Kentucky Derby due to insufficient earnings. So although J.R. likes Elite Alex, he doesn’t think that he will make the Derby.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Unfortunately, this post is already extremely lengthy (2500+ words). Although I originally intended to make this post rather short, I got so into writing it that it ended up a bit long. Therefore, rather than discuss all of the fabulous racing action going on today right here, I shall post my thoughts and picks throughout the day in a variety of shorter posts. I will also be posting the results of the races as they are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Today’s feature race shall be the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, in which The Factor attempts to prove that he can succeed going a mile and an eighth.
FEATURE RACE: Arkansas Derby (gr. I)
$1,000,000 Purse/Nine Furlongs/Oaklawn Park Main Track
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Nehro (5-1)
2 Elite Alex (8-1)
3 The Factor (7-5)
4 Brethren (10-1)
5 Sway Away (6-1)
6 Caleb’s Posse (10-1, coupled with Alternation)
7 Truman’s Commander (30-1)
8 Alternation (10-1, coupled with Caleb’s Posse)
9 Dance City (15-1)
10 Archarcharch (12-1)
11 J P’s Gusto (15-1)
12 J W Blue (30-1)
13 Saratoga Red (30-1)
Drawing the rail is Nehro, a lightly raced son of Mineshaft who has shown a great deal of promise in his first four starts. He ran poorly in his first two starts, finishing fourth and tenth, but turned into a different horse in his third start. Sent off at 15-1 in a one-mile maiden special weight, he rocketed from ten lengths off the pace with a half-mile to go, to win by an impressive 4 ½ lengths. He was then entered in the $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby (gr. II), which was a major step-up in class. A major longshot at 36-1, he ran a huge race to finish second, beaten only a neck by Pants On Fire. If he runs that well again today, he can win. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.
Elite Alex has drawn gate two. A son of Afleet Alex, he has shown a great deal of promise and will likely be among the favorites here. Trained by Tim Ritchey, he broke his maiden by three-quarters of a length going five furlongs last July. But he was put away after that, and did not race or breeze again until late October. He returned to the races in January of this year, and ran an amazing second to Alternation in an allowance optional claiming race despite stumbling badly at the start. In the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), he closed from far back to finish third, beaten about two lengths by Archarcharch. In his most recent start, the Louisiana Derby, he closed from fifteen lengths behind to finish fourth, beaten 4 ¼ lengths. But don’t expect to see him that far back today. He will be wearing blinkers for the first time, and he is expected to be quite a bit closer to the pace this time around. If he gets a good trip, he could very well win. Calvin Borel will ride.
This brings us to the brilliant The Factor, the morning line favorite. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of War Front has unbelievable speed. He broke his maiden at Santa Anita Park second time out in December of last year, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight by 8 ¼ lengths. . . in 1:06 4/5. He displayed equally impressive speed in the San Vicente Stakes, which he won by three-quarters of a length in 1:20 1/5. But he had yet to prove that he could succeed around two turns.
Fast forward to the mile and a sixteenth Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park. The Factor was the mild favorite, but he ran like he was 1-20. He broke quickly and went straight to the lead. No one got within two lengths of him, as he kicked away in the stretch to win by 6 ¼ lengths in a sharp 1:42 flat. He has been breezing well since then for this race, but he still must prove one thing – that he can handle early pressure and still hang on to win. In the Rebel Stakes, he was the lone speed. Today, at least two and perhaps more horses will be challenging him for the early lead. If he can win this afternoon, he will head to Louisville as the heavy Kentucky Derby favorite. Martin Garcia will ride.
Brethren has drawn gate four. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Distorted Humor swept to victories in his first three starts: a maiden special weight, an allowance race, and the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III). In the latter, he drew off powerfully in the stretch to win by 4 ½ lengths. These impressive performances earned him the status as the 1-2 favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II). However, he never really settled in that race, and ended up finishing third behind Watch Me Go and Crimson Knight. But he has been training brilliantly up to this race, and will be wearing blinkers for the first time. I expect a much improved performance from the colt, who is a half-brother to last year’s Derby winner Super Saver. Ramon Dominguez has the mount.
The next horse in the field is Sway Away, who will probably be the third or fourth choice in the field. A son of Afleet Alex, the colt showed great promise in two starts as a juvenile, breaking his maiden impressively and finishing second in the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II). But a setback apparently occurred after that, for he did not race again until the February of this year when he ran in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II). Far off of a quick early pace, he closed furiously in deep stretch but fell three-quarters of a length short of catching The Factor. That performance earned him the status as second choice in the Rebel Stakes, where he would meet The Factor again. However, the colt ran a disappointing sixth of nine and never reached contention. But it was discovered after the race that he had lost a tooth at some point during the running, so it may be best to just forget about the performance altogether. Trained by Jeff Bonde, the colt will be wearing blinkers for the first time. Patrick Valenzuela will ride
Caleb’s Posse has drawn gate six. A son of Posse, he is one of the more heavily-raced horses in the field with nine starts. A stakes winner at two, the bay colt impressively won the Smarty Jones Stakes over this track in January. But in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), a horrible trip ensued and he finished a non-threatening sixth. Sent off at nearly 25-1 in the Rebel, he managed to run a strong second despite a less-than-ideal trip. Trained by Donnie Von Hemel, if he gets a decent trip today he could pull off the upset. E Razo Jr. has the mount.
Truman’s Commander is an intriguing longshot. He made three starts as a juvenile, running fourth twice and third once. The son of Friends Lake was then put away for the year, returning on March 6th to compete in a one-mile maiden special weight. He ran huge, powering away in the stretch to win by six lengths. He has a lot going for him here – he is trained by Nick Zito, he has a couple of recent sharp workouts, he’s making his second start off of a layoff, etc. etc. I wouldn’t count him out. Israel Ocampa has the mount.
This brings us to Alternation. A son of Distorted Humor, he has won three of his four starts, and brings a three-race winning streak into this race. He defeated Elite Alex in an allowance optional claiming race earlier this year, and then defeated older horses in his most recent start. Although he was entered in the Rebel Stakes, he pitched a fit in the gate and was scratched by the track veterinarian. But it apparently wasn’t a big deal, for he’s back to try and stamp his ticket to the Derby this afternoon. He will likely have to win in order to secure the necessary graded earnings, however. Trained by Donnie Vom Hemel, he will be ridden by L. Quinonez.
Next up is the promising Dance City. A son of City Zip, the speedy colt broke his maiden in an impressive performance second time out, winning a nine-furlong sloppy-track maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Sent off as a mile longshot in his most recent race, a one-mile allowance race, he set the pace before losing the lead at the eighth pole. However, he did not finish second. He did not finish third. Instead, he came back on to defeat heavy favorite Cal Nation by a nose. It’s hard to say if he is capable of defeating a quality field such as this one, but expect him to be right there turning for home. He has been training sharply for this race, and you never know what trainer Todd Pletcher has up his sleeve. Javier Castellano has the mount.
Archarcharch has drawn gate ten. A son of (who else!) Arch, the colt showed a great deal of promise when he broke his maiden in a stakes race, the six-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes. However, when sent off as the even-money favorite in the Smarty Jones Stakes, he finished a dismal fourth behind Caleb’s Posse. But he rebounded sharply at 14-1 on the Southwest Stakes, kicking away at the top of the stretch and holding off J P’s Gusto to win the race by a length. He ran just as well in the Rebel Stakes, finishing third while beaten only a neck for second after being rank in the early going. If he can relax and get to the rail today, he may just have the talent to win. Trained by William Fires, Jon Court will ride.
J P’s Gusto has drawn gate eleven. He is the veteran of the field, with ten starts and numerous graded stakes wins under his belt. He won the Del Mar Futurity last year (gr. I) and ran second in both the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). In his 2011 debut, he ran a strong second to Archarcharch in the Southwest. However, despite being well-bet in the Rebel Stakes, he ran a dull seventh. It’s difficult to say why he ran so poorly, but it’s probably best to just ignore the performance and judge him off of his previous performances. Trained by Joe Petalino, the son of Successful Appeal will be wearing blinkers for the first time and may press the pace in the early going. M. Berry has the mount.
This brings us to J W Blue, who will probably be one of, if not the, longest shot in the field. Trained by Anthony Dutrow, the son of Sky Mesa has developed a pattern in his racing performances – lose one by a huge margin, win one, lose one by a huge margin, etc. etc. He was beaten by over eleven lengths in his first start, a one-mile maiden special weight, but rebounded to win a similar event by a length. In his third start, he ran fourth beaten about ten lengths in an allowance optional claiming race. He then won an allowance race by 1 ½ lengths. Last time out, he ran fifth beaten eight lengths in the Rebel Stakes. However, it can be argued that the Rebel was actually his best performance to date, for he was only beaten 1 ¾ lengths for second. I believe that he may outrun his odds this afternoon. He will be ridden by J. Rocco Jr.
Finally, we come to Saratoga Red. A son of Eddington, the colt has only made two starts thus far. But they have been impressive. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the colt broke his maiden by a neck over Zoebear, who recently ran second in the Illinois Derby. He then ran in the Rebel Stakes, where at odds of 34.70-1 he ran fourth, beaten 7 ¾ lengths. But it was actually a very good performance. He chased the quick early pace set by The Factor and held on well to be beaten only 1 ½ lengths for second. Although he is facing a very difficult task, I wouldn’t count him out of hitting the board.
Now, this is a very difficult race to handicap. For the win, I have considered Nehro, Elite Alex, The Factor, Brethren, Caleb’s Posse, Truman’s Commander, Alternation, and Archarcharch. This is just an extremely evenly matched field! Obviously, if The Factor runs like he did in the Rebel, he will be very tough to beat. But I see him receiving more early pressure today, and I believe that he will tire in the final sixteenth to lose the race.
As for the others:
Nehro – May bounce off of his Louisiana Derby effort.
Elite Alex – Will the blinkers soften his late kick?
Brethren – Needs to show a great deal more than he has in the past.
Caleb’s Posse – Does he have the talent?
Truman’s Commander – I have a gut feeling that he may run well.
Alternation – Hasn’t raced in about two months.
Archarcharch – Does he have the talent?
Many questions will be answered today, and many of these quality horses will be shut out of the Kentucky Derby if they don’t finish in the top two. This is a pick-a-number-and-hope-for-the-best race.
Thus, my picks:
1 Caleb’s Posse
2 Elite Alex
3 The Factor
4 Truman’s Commander
5 Nehro
6 J W Blue
7 Brethren
8 Archarcharch
9 J P’s Gusto
10 Alternation
11 Sway Away
12 Saratoga Red
13 Dance City
To be perfectly honest, I have absolutely no idea how this race will unfold. Chances are, one of the top contenders will run poorly. And chances are, a longshot will rally for a major piece of the purse. But I’m confident that Caleb’s Posse will run a great race if he gets a good trip. But he must defeat The Factor – and that’s easier said than done.
J.R. is also quite puzzled by this race. So he decided to toss the favorites altogether and go with a longshot – that longshot being Truman’s Commander. We both really like this colt, but he is a bit bolder than I am when handicapping races, and is willing to take a chance with a 30-1 shot.
His complete selections are:
1 Truman’s Commander
2 Nehro
3 Archarcharch
4 Elite Alex
5 Brethren
6 The Factor
7 J W Blue
8 Caleb’s Posse
9 J P’s Gusto
10 Alternation
11 Sway Away
12 Dance City
13 Saratoga Red
Now, as much as J.R. likes Elite Alex for the Kentucky Derby, he doesn’t believe that the colt will run better than fourth here. If Elite Alex does not finish in the top two, then he will likely miss the Kentucky Derby due to insufficient earnings. So although J.R. likes Elite Alex, he doesn’t think that he will make the Derby.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Unfortunately, this post is already extremely lengthy (2500+ words). Although I originally intended to make this post rather short, I got so into writing it that it ended up a bit long. Therefore, rather than discuss all of the fabulous racing action going on today right here, I shall post my thoughts and picks throughout the day in a variety of shorter posts. I will also be posting the results of the races as they are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Thursday, April 14, 2011
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- April 14th, 2011
1. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Breezed on April 12th for the first time since the Florida Derby, working a half-mile in :49.90 at Palm Meadows Training Center. He is scheduled to have just one more breeze before the Kentucky Derby.
2. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Amazingly, this colt has inherited my number two spot. I really don't know if I should have him up this high, but he turned in a blazing :58 1/5 five furlong workout on April 9th at Gulfstream Park, so here is where he stays for the time being.
3. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I believe that this colt is going to run a huge race in the Arkansas Derby. His last workout was brilliant, he's got Calvin Borel in the saddle, and with a little luck he might just win. And he's going to need a little luck to secure the graded earnings necassary to make the Kentucky Derby field.
4. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
As the odds-on favorite, he was supposed to win the Wood Memorial by ten lengths. Unfortunately, he grabbed a quarter at the start of the race and wound up third behind Toby's Corner and Arthur's Tale. Now he has a GI infection. But as long as he gets over these setbacks and trains well up to the Derby, he'll remain in my top five.
5. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
This colt ran the race of his life in the Wood Memorial, rallying furiously in deep stretch to catch Uncle Mo and Arthur's Tale. All of a sudden, he is back in the Derby picture. He wore blinkers for the first time in the Wood, which perhaps explains his sudden step up in ability.
6. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
He has drawn gate three in the Arkansas Derby, where he is the 7-5 morning line favorite. He’s proven that he can go two turns, but now he must prove that he can go a mile and an eighth without tiring.
7. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
He is the 3-1 morning line favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes, where he has drawn gate three. But it’s a wide open race, and if he wins I doubt it will be by much. I would just like to see him move forward; to see him staying on to the finish.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Was forced to miss the Santa Anita Derby due to a foot bruise which seems to have cleared up now. The Lexington Stakes (gr. III) two weeks before the Derby is likely to be his next start.
9. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
He was hugely impressive in the Santa Anita Derby, racing wide throughout and altering his course in the stretch before catching Comma to the Top in the shadow of the wire. But he was unraced at age two -- and no horse has won the Derby without racing at two since Apollo in 1882.
10. Pants On Fire - Trained by Kelly Breen
He hasn’t breezed since the Louisiana Derby, but I assume that he will work out soon. The main question is whether or not he is capable of rating farther off of the lead – for I don’t think that he has the speed and stamina to stay with The Factor early.
11. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
To remain a legitimate Derby contender – and to even make the Derby field – he’s going to have to run well in the Arkansas Derby. He has drawn gate four. Hopefully, he will relax better on Saturday than he did in the Tampa Bay Derby.
12. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
He has drawn the rail in the Arkansas Derby, which won’t be the easiest gate to break from. I would just like to see him run well -- not even win, necessarily, just run as well as he did in the Louisiana Derby.
13. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
He's likely going to need additional earnings to get into the Derby field, so a good performance in the Arkansas Derby is imperative.
14. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
He ran like he needed a race in the Santa Anita Derby, chasing the pace before tiring in the stretch to finish fourth. But it wasn't all that bad a performance, and I am still intrigued by him. If he trains well up to the Kentucky Derby, I wouldn't count him out.
15. Caleb's Posse - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel
He's one of six horses in my top twenty that are running in the Arkansas Derby. Whether or not he remains in my top twenty depends on if he can outrun the majority of the other five. He has drawn gate six, so he should be able to get a decent ground-saving trip.
16. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Roman
He's already arrived at Churchill Downs to prepare for the Derby. I'm still wondering what to make of his Florida Derby performance. It was certainly a career-best effort, but how much did the apparant speed bias at Gulfstream that day skew the results?
17. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
I'm still puzzling over his poor Florida Derby performance. I guess he just didn't care for having dirt kicked in his face, which is going to be hard to avoid in the Derby. But I'm keeping him on here based on the fine form that he has shown in the past.
18. Animal Kingdom - Trained by H. Motion
He's proven himself to be capable of succeeding on both polytrack and turf, but dirt is still a big question mark. How well he trains leading up to the Derby will be our only gauge of his potential ability to handle the surface.
19. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Shackleford, he too has already arrived at Churchill Downs. Both of them are certainly going to get a very good feel for the racetrack. But it's hard to like a horse that showed absolutely nothing in his final prep race.
20. Crimson China - Trained by H. Motion
He's one of three horses trained by Motion in my top twenty. The runner-up in the Rushaway Stakes, he has drawn gate eleven in the Blue Grass Stakes. If he runs well, he could very well make the Derby field.
Note: I had orginally placed Arthur's Tale in spot number 14, but after his splint injury I decided to remove him, even though he may still make the Belmont Stakes. I have also removed numerous other horses from the below lists, strictly because it is really too late for them to jump into the Triple Crown picture. Perhaps the Travers is ahead for some of them!
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Just Out of the Top
Alternation - He's drawn gate eight in the Arkansas Derby.
Anthony's Cross - Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby, but probably needed the race.
Astrology - Will likely skip the Derby and instead run in the Preakness.
Decisive Moment - He's at Churchill preparing for the Derby.
Joe Vann - Illinois Derby winner isn't nominated to the Triple Crown.
Joyful Victory - Fantasy Stakes winner will most likely run in the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby.
Mr Commons - Good third in the Santa Anita Derby, but graded earnings are a concern.
R Heat Lightning - Kentucky Oaks favorite would be in my top twenty if she was aiming for the Derby.
Sway Away - Drew gate five in the Arkansas Derby.
Twice the Appeal - Recently recorded his first breeze since the Sunland Derby.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - Beaten a neck when third in the Transylvania Stakes.
Bandbox - Breezed sharply recently; the Preakness isn't out of the question.
Cal Nation - Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Dance City - Drew gate nine in the Arkansas Derby.
J P's Gusto - Drew gate eleven in the Arkansas Derby.
J W Blue - Drew gate twelve in the Arkansas Derby.
Kathmanblu - Actually ran pretty well when third in the Ashland.
Queen'splatekitten - Drew gate twelve in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Wilkinson - Drew gate nine in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Clarke Lane - Wasn't entered in the Blue Grass.
Comma to the Top - Beaten a head in the Santa Anita Derby, it reaffirms that he doesn't want to go a mile and a quarter.
Crimson Knight - Wasn't flattered by Watch Me Go in the Illinois Derby.
Flashpoint - Finished a somewhat disappointing fourth in the Florida Derby.
Indian Winter - Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby.
Machen - He seems to be a cut below two turn stakes caliber.
Monzon - Not sure where he will run next.
Norman Asbjornson - Fourth in the Wood Memorial wasn't great.
Watch Me Go - Disappointing sixth in the Illinois Derby.
-Keelerman
Breezed on April 12th for the first time since the Florida Derby, working a half-mile in :49.90 at Palm Meadows Training Center. He is scheduled to have just one more breeze before the Kentucky Derby.
2. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Amazingly, this colt has inherited my number two spot. I really don't know if I should have him up this high, but he turned in a blazing :58 1/5 five furlong workout on April 9th at Gulfstream Park, so here is where he stays for the time being.
3. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I believe that this colt is going to run a huge race in the Arkansas Derby. His last workout was brilliant, he's got Calvin Borel in the saddle, and with a little luck he might just win. And he's going to need a little luck to secure the graded earnings necassary to make the Kentucky Derby field.
4. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
As the odds-on favorite, he was supposed to win the Wood Memorial by ten lengths. Unfortunately, he grabbed a quarter at the start of the race and wound up third behind Toby's Corner and Arthur's Tale. Now he has a GI infection. But as long as he gets over these setbacks and trains well up to the Derby, he'll remain in my top five.
5. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
This colt ran the race of his life in the Wood Memorial, rallying furiously in deep stretch to catch Uncle Mo and Arthur's Tale. All of a sudden, he is back in the Derby picture. He wore blinkers for the first time in the Wood, which perhaps explains his sudden step up in ability.
6. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
He has drawn gate three in the Arkansas Derby, where he is the 7-5 morning line favorite. He’s proven that he can go two turns, but now he must prove that he can go a mile and an eighth without tiring.
7. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
He is the 3-1 morning line favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes, where he has drawn gate three. But it’s a wide open race, and if he wins I doubt it will be by much. I would just like to see him move forward; to see him staying on to the finish.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Was forced to miss the Santa Anita Derby due to a foot bruise which seems to have cleared up now. The Lexington Stakes (gr. III) two weeks before the Derby is likely to be his next start.
9. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
He was hugely impressive in the Santa Anita Derby, racing wide throughout and altering his course in the stretch before catching Comma to the Top in the shadow of the wire. But he was unraced at age two -- and no horse has won the Derby without racing at two since Apollo in 1882.
10. Pants On Fire - Trained by Kelly Breen
He hasn’t breezed since the Louisiana Derby, but I assume that he will work out soon. The main question is whether or not he is capable of rating farther off of the lead – for I don’t think that he has the speed and stamina to stay with The Factor early.
11. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
To remain a legitimate Derby contender – and to even make the Derby field – he’s going to have to run well in the Arkansas Derby. He has drawn gate four. Hopefully, he will relax better on Saturday than he did in the Tampa Bay Derby.
12. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
He has drawn the rail in the Arkansas Derby, which won’t be the easiest gate to break from. I would just like to see him run well -- not even win, necessarily, just run as well as he did in the Louisiana Derby.
13. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
He's likely going to need additional earnings to get into the Derby field, so a good performance in the Arkansas Derby is imperative.
14. Silver Medallion - Trained by Steve Asmussen
He ran like he needed a race in the Santa Anita Derby, chasing the pace before tiring in the stretch to finish fourth. But it wasn't all that bad a performance, and I am still intrigued by him. If he trains well up to the Kentucky Derby, I wouldn't count him out.
15. Caleb's Posse - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel
He's one of six horses in my top twenty that are running in the Arkansas Derby. Whether or not he remains in my top twenty depends on if he can outrun the majority of the other five. He has drawn gate six, so he should be able to get a decent ground-saving trip.
16. Shackleford - Trained by Dale Roman
He's already arrived at Churchill Downs to prepare for the Derby. I'm still wondering what to make of his Florida Derby performance. It was certainly a career-best effort, but how much did the apparant speed bias at Gulfstream that day skew the results?
17. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
I'm still puzzling over his poor Florida Derby performance. I guess he just didn't care for having dirt kicked in his face, which is going to be hard to avoid in the Derby. But I'm keeping him on here based on the fine form that he has shown in the past.
18. Animal Kingdom - Trained by H. Motion
He's proven himself to be capable of succeeding on both polytrack and turf, but dirt is still a big question mark. How well he trains leading up to the Derby will be our only gauge of his potential ability to handle the surface.
19. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Shackleford, he too has already arrived at Churchill Downs. Both of them are certainly going to get a very good feel for the racetrack. But it's hard to like a horse that showed absolutely nothing in his final prep race.
20. Crimson China - Trained by H. Motion
He's one of three horses trained by Motion in my top twenty. The runner-up in the Rushaway Stakes, he has drawn gate eleven in the Blue Grass Stakes. If he runs well, he could very well make the Derby field.
Note: I had orginally placed Arthur's Tale in spot number 14, but after his splint injury I decided to remove him, even though he may still make the Belmont Stakes. I have also removed numerous other horses from the below lists, strictly because it is really too late for them to jump into the Triple Crown picture. Perhaps the Travers is ahead for some of them!
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Just Out of the Top
Alternation - He's drawn gate eight in the Arkansas Derby.
Anthony's Cross - Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby, but probably needed the race.
Astrology - Will likely skip the Derby and instead run in the Preakness.
Decisive Moment - He's at Churchill preparing for the Derby.
Joe Vann - Illinois Derby winner isn't nominated to the Triple Crown.
Joyful Victory - Fantasy Stakes winner will most likely run in the Kentucky Oaks rather than the Derby.
Mr Commons - Good third in the Santa Anita Derby, but graded earnings are a concern.
R Heat Lightning - Kentucky Oaks favorite would be in my top twenty if she was aiming for the Derby.
Sway Away - Drew gate five in the Arkansas Derby.
Twice the Appeal - Recently recorded his first breeze since the Sunland Derby.
Need to Show a Little More:
Adirondack Summer - Beaten a neck when third in the Transylvania Stakes.
Bandbox - Breezed sharply recently; the Preakness isn't out of the question.
Cal Nation - Finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream; may run in the Preakness.
Dance City - Drew gate nine in the Arkansas Derby.
J P's Gusto - Drew gate eleven in the Arkansas Derby.
J W Blue - Drew gate twelve in the Arkansas Derby.
Kathmanblu - Actually ran pretty well when third in the Ashland.
Queen'splatekitten - Drew gate twelve in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Wilkinson - Drew gate nine in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Need to Show a Lot More:
Clarke Lane - Wasn't entered in the Blue Grass.
Comma to the Top - Beaten a head in the Santa Anita Derby, it reaffirms that he doesn't want to go a mile and a quarter.
Crimson Knight - Wasn't flattered by Watch Me Go in the Illinois Derby.
Flashpoint - Finished a somewhat disappointing fourth in the Florida Derby.
Indian Winter - Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby.
Machen - He seems to be a cut below two turn stakes caliber.
Monzon - Not sure where he will run next.
Norman Asbjornson - Fourth in the Wood Memorial wasn't great.
Watch Me Go - Disappointing sixth in the Illinois Derby.
-Keelerman
J.R.'S DERBY TOP TEN ---- April 12th, 2011
With slightly less than four weeks until the Kentucky Derby, here are J.R.'s thoughts on his top choices:
1. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I don't care if he wins or loses the Arkansas Derby. As long as he finishes first or second, it will put him right on track for Louisville.
2. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
Time to recognize that this isn't a second tier colt. He won the Wood Memorial despite a traffic-filled trip. This colt is the real deal.
3. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
I really don't like the fact that he missed the Santa Anita Derby, but I still think that his pedigree can pull him through. The Lexington will tell us more.
4. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
I doubt that he'll lose the Arkansas Derby. He'll probably win by a couple of lengths. But I still don't know if he can run a mile and a quarter.
5. Caleb's Posse - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel
This colt is seriously overlooked. A 1-2 finish in the Arkansas Derby will move him up my list.
6. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
The Arkansas Derby will tell us if this colt is a serious Derby contender. With his pedigree, I'd say that if he doesn't win the Derby he could win the Belmont Stakes.
7. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
Overcame a bad rail at Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby to be beaten a neck. We'll see if he can handle 'Alex and 'Factor.
8. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
The lost shoe probably cost him the Louisiana Derby, but we'll never know for sure. He had a nice breeze recently, and as long as he trains well up to the Derby he'll remain a serious contender.
9. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
I don't like the fact that he barely caught a 68-1 shot in the Florida Derby. He's going to have to close better if he is to win the Derby.
10. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
Santa Anita Derby victory was visually impressive, but he broke his maiden in March and has the dreaded Apollo curse hanging over his head.
-J.R.
1. Elite Alex - Trained by Timothy Ritchey
I don't care if he wins or loses the Arkansas Derby. As long as he finishes first or second, it will put him right on track for Louisville.
2. Toby's Corner - Trained by H. Motion
Time to recognize that this isn't a second tier colt. He won the Wood Memorial despite a traffic-filled trip. This colt is the real deal.
3. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
I really don't like the fact that he missed the Santa Anita Derby, but I still think that his pedigree can pull him through. The Lexington will tell us more.
4. The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert
I doubt that he'll lose the Arkansas Derby. He'll probably win by a couple of lengths. But I still don't know if he can run a mile and a quarter.
5. Caleb's Posse - Trained by Donnie Von Hemel
This colt is seriously overlooked. A 1-2 finish in the Arkansas Derby will move him up my list.
6. Archarcharch - Trained by William Fires
The Arkansas Derby will tell us if this colt is a serious Derby contender. With his pedigree, I'd say that if he doesn't win the Derby he could win the Belmont Stakes.
7. Nehro - Trained by Steven Asmussen
Overcame a bad rail at Fair Grounds in the Louisiana Derby to be beaten a neck. We'll see if he can handle 'Alex and 'Factor.
8. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
The lost shoe probably cost him the Louisiana Derby, but we'll never know for sure. He had a nice breeze recently, and as long as he trains well up to the Derby he'll remain a serious contender.
9. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
I don't like the fact that he barely caught a 68-1 shot in the Florida Derby. He's going to have to close better if he is to win the Derby.
10. Midnight Interlude - Trained by Bob Baffert
Santa Anita Derby victory was visually impressive, but he broke his maiden in March and has the dreaded Apollo curse hanging over his head.
-J.R.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
SANTIVA: An Overlooked Contender?
When one is attempting to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby, one considers many factors. Beyer speed figures, tactical speed, and proven form over the Churchill Downs main track are just some of those factors.
With all of the recent talk about Uncle Mo, Dialed In, The Factor, Toby's Corner, and Midnight Interlude, it can be easy to forget some of the lesser Derby contenders. One horse that I feel has not received the credit he deserves is Santiva.
Santiva has many merits that warrant his inclusion in everyone's lists of Derby contenders.
• He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last year on the Churchill Downs main track.
• He has some decent tactical speed, which should enable him to get good position in the Kentucky Derby.
• His pedigree should carry him classic distances, being by Giant’s Causeway out of Slide.
Another factor which makes me think that Santiva is a true Derby contender was the way in which he won the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall. After racing three wide all the way around the far turn, he entered the homestretch with two very good horses—Astrology and Major Gain—challenging him on both sides. Passing the eighth pole, he had his head narrowly in front. But Astrology was on his outside bidding for the lead, and Major Gain was along the rail only a neck behind. It would have been perfectly understandable if he had given way to finish third. But instead, he dug in and refused to be beaten, drawing back off to win by a half-length while closing his final sixteenth of a mile in :6.37.
Santiva has never run a bad race. In five starts, he has never finished worse than third. In his first start, he ran third behind Wine Police and Soldat in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. Behind him was Joe Vann, who won the Illinois Derby (gr. III) last Saturday.
His second start he ran second to J B’s Thunder in a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight on the turf at Saratoga. Never far off the lead, he closed some ground late to finish a strong second.
His next race came in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland. Despite the fact that he had never before won a race, and that he had never raced over a synthetic track before, he was well liked at 6-1. Far off of the early pace, he closed strongly in the stretch but had to settle for second, four lengths behind J B’s Thunder.
His fourth race was the above-mentioned Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which he won. Put away for winter, he returned on February 19th at Fair Grounds for the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). The fourth choice in a field of ten, he raced very wide on both turns but still came home gamely to be beaten just a length and a half by top Derby contender Mucho Macho Man. Many lengths behind Santiva in sixth was Pants On Fire, who returned to win the Louisiana Derby (gr. II).
Next Saturday, Santiva will compete in the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). It will be his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. He has already performed well over Keeneland’s synthetic main track, for the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity was at Keeneland. So we know that he can handle the surface. Even if he wins the Blue Grass, it’s possible that he could enter the Kentucky Derby at odds of 10-1, or perhaps even 15-1. But to be perfectly honest, I believe that he deserves to be one of the favorites.
-Keelerman
With all of the recent talk about Uncle Mo, Dialed In, The Factor, Toby's Corner, and Midnight Interlude, it can be easy to forget some of the lesser Derby contenders. One horse that I feel has not received the credit he deserves is Santiva.
Santiva has many merits that warrant his inclusion in everyone's lists of Derby contenders.
• He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last year on the Churchill Downs main track.
• He has some decent tactical speed, which should enable him to get good position in the Kentucky Derby.
• His pedigree should carry him classic distances, being by Giant’s Causeway out of Slide.
Another factor which makes me think that Santiva is a true Derby contender was the way in which he won the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall. After racing three wide all the way around the far turn, he entered the homestretch with two very good horses—Astrology and Major Gain—challenging him on both sides. Passing the eighth pole, he had his head narrowly in front. But Astrology was on his outside bidding for the lead, and Major Gain was along the rail only a neck behind. It would have been perfectly understandable if he had given way to finish third. But instead, he dug in and refused to be beaten, drawing back off to win by a half-length while closing his final sixteenth of a mile in :6.37.
Santiva has never run a bad race. In five starts, he has never finished worse than third. In his first start, he ran third behind Wine Police and Soldat in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. Behind him was Joe Vann, who won the Illinois Derby (gr. III) last Saturday.
His second start he ran second to J B’s Thunder in a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight on the turf at Saratoga. Never far off the lead, he closed some ground late to finish a strong second.
His next race came in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland. Despite the fact that he had never before won a race, and that he had never raced over a synthetic track before, he was well liked at 6-1. Far off of the early pace, he closed strongly in the stretch but had to settle for second, four lengths behind J B’s Thunder.
His fourth race was the above-mentioned Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which he won. Put away for winter, he returned on February 19th at Fair Grounds for the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). The fourth choice in a field of ten, he raced very wide on both turns but still came home gamely to be beaten just a length and a half by top Derby contender Mucho Macho Man. Many lengths behind Santiva in sixth was Pants On Fire, who returned to win the Louisiana Derby (gr. II).
Next Saturday, Santiva will compete in the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). It will be his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. He has already performed well over Keeneland’s synthetic main track, for the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity was at Keeneland. So we know that he can handle the surface. Even if he wins the Blue Grass, it’s possible that he could enter the Kentucky Derby at odds of 10-1, or perhaps even 15-1. But to be perfectly honest, I believe that he deserves to be one of the favorites.
-Keelerman
Monday, April 11, 2011
THE COUNT FLEET STAKES: Was it a key race?
Do you believe in the key race theory?
The "key race theory" is not the easiest theory to explain, but it is a very easy concept to grasp. The key race theory is the idea that some races have, say, a very solid field of horses that end up performing well in the future. A perfect example was the 2008 Apple Blossom Handicap, a race that was about as key as you can get. Here are the results of that race:
1st Zenyatta
2nd Brownie Points
3rd Ginger Punch
4th Lemon Drop Kid
5th Clever Strike
6th Kettleoneup
In their next starts. . .
• Zenyatta finished 1st in the Milady Handicap (gr. II).
• Brownie Points finished 1st in the Ouija Board Handicap (gr. III).
• Ginger Punch finished 1st in the Louisville Handicap (gr. II).
• Lemon Drop Mom finished 1st in the Winter Melody Stakes.
• Clever Strike finished 1st in an allowance race.
• Kettleoneup finished 5th in the Louisville Stakes (gr. II).
Notice the trend? Five of the six horses that ran in the Apple Blossom came back to win their next start. Now, most key races aren't quite that stunning -- most key races have three, perhaps four, horses return to win their next races.
My favorite kind of key race is what I call the "Key Maiden Race". As the name implies, it is a race for maidens which ends up turning out several very good horses.
Here are a few examples of "Key Maiden Races" that I have always been amazed by:
9-4-10: The 6th at Saratoga
The race was a seven furlong, main track $50,000 maiden special weight for two-year-olds. Here were the entries:
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Lemon Ghost
3 Voodat
4 Astrology
5 Golden Gulch
6 Data Link
7 Economic Summit
8 Scotus (ended up scratching)
9 Punster
10 King Ting
11 Anthony's Cross
12 Praetereo
13 Philippe
14 Dr. Tom G
Also Eligibles
15 Whistlin' Dixie
1a Gallant Dreams (ended up scratching)
Recognize any of those names? Of course you do! Astrology went on to win the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) and ran second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) and Sunland Derby (gr. III). He is a contender for the Kentucky Derby next month. To Honor and Serve won the Nashua (gr. II) and the Remsen (gr. II) to become one of the leading juveniles of 2010. Anthony's Cross won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and is a contender for the Kentucky Derby.
And those were just the best colts to emerge from the race! Data Link has won three straight races on turf and will run in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) this coming Saturday. Philippe was beaten a neck in the Hansel Stakes just last month. Economic Summit has competed in two graded stakes races. King Ting, Punster, Praetereo, and Dr. Tom G all broke their maidens.
That is a key race if I ever saw one! For the record, Astrology won the race by two lengths over To Honor and Serve, with Anthony’s Cross another two lengths back in third.
7-4-09: The 11th at Churchill Downs
What appeared to be an ordinary six furlong maiden special weight for two-year-olds turned out to be a spectacular key maiden race. The winner was Thiskyhasnolimit, who went on to win the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III). The runner-up was Worldly, a solid colt who has placed in a variety of graded stakes events. Finishing seventh was Paddy O'Prado, who hit the board in seven graded stakes races in 2010, with the Secretariat (gr. I), Virginia Derby (gr. II), and the Colonial Turf Cup Stakes (gr. II) among his victories.
8-1-09: The 6th at Saratoga
The race was a six-furlong main track allowance race for two-year-olds. Finishing first was Dublin, who went on to win the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I). The runner-up was Hockley, who went on to become a solid allowance horse. In third was Eightfiveinafifty, the blazingly fast colt who won the 2010 Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III). Fourth was Discreetly Mine, who won the 2010 King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. I) and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). Even last-place finisher, Krypton, went on to great things. He won the grade III Hill Prince Stakes and finished third in a pair of other graded stakes races.
6-11-09: The 7th at Churchill Downs
An ordinary Thursday at Churchill Downs is not the place where one usually looks for key maiden races, but this was an exception. In a five furlong maiden special weight, the winner was Backtalk, who went on to win the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) and become a solid lower-level stakes sprinter. Finishing second was the above-mentioned Thiskyhasnolimit. In third was Red Rally, who won three Louisiana-bred stakes races in 2009. And in fourth was Dublin, the grade I winner who I also mentioned above.
6-10-10: The 2nd at Belmont Park
This race is without a doubt one of the most fascinating I've ever seen. The winner was Bail Out the Cat, who finished second in the Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) later that year. But it was the horses he beat who ended up doing the best running. 2 1/4 lengths behind him was Soldat, who as we all know went on to win the Fountain of Youth (gr. II), With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III), and run second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) and the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III). And finishing third was Pluck, whose thrilling late runs earned him victories in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) and Summer Stakes (gr. III).
****
Now, about the Count Fleet Stakes, run on January 1st 2011. Although the horses emerging from the race on the whole didn’t do anything spectacular in their next starts, it's looking more and more like a key race with every passing week.
Here were the entries:
#/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Pants On Fire (5-2)
2 J J's Lucky Train (7-2)
3 Tap Star (10-1)
4 Rush Now (3-1)
5 Arthur's Tale (4-1)
6 Isn't He Perfect (Scratched)
7 Monzon (10-1)
And here are a few lines that I wrote about the race when handicapping it on this blog at the time:
"As today is Saturday, there are several good races carded across the country, including several stakes races for the new three-year-olds. Although none of them are graded, they could potentially impact the Triple Crown Trail in major ways. This week's feature race shall be the Count Fleet Stakes, a $65,000 stakes races run over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct at a distance of one mile and seventy yards."
"The morning line favorite is Pants On Fire, who drew the rail. A son of Jump Start out of Cabo de Noche, he lost two maiden special weight races before coming through with a dominating performance going a mile at Delaware Park. Sent off as the favorite in the maiden special weight event, he quickly took the lead and drew off easily to win by seven lengths. His next-and most recent-start came in an allowance optional claiming event going a mile and seventy yards over the Aqueduct inner track. Sent off as the third choice, he took the lead from the outset despite stumbling at the start and led all the way into the stretch before grudgingly giving way to Rescind the Trade. He ended up second, beaten a neck; 5 1/4 lengths in front of the third place finisher. The performance was excellent; one which definitely earns him the status as favorite today."
"This brings us to J J's Lucky Train, the third choice. Trained by William Anderson, the son of Silver Train out of the Thunder Gulch mare Delta Sensation broke his maiden in sharp fashion first time out. Sent off at nearly 8-1 in a maiden claiming event at Monmouth Park, he rated just off the pace before making a bold bid to win the 5-1/2 furlong event by 2 1/2 lengths. This strong victory warranted a start in the grade III Sapling Stakes, also at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 37-1, he ended up sixth, beaten six lengths after failing to menace. This performance, lackluster as it was, raised his odds in his next start, a six-furlong starter allowance race at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 2-1, he made his odds seem like a bargain as he powered past the leader turning for home to draw off and win by nearly six lengths, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:10 3/5. Amazingly, this impressive run was not enough to earn him the status of favorite in his most recent start, a one mile and seventy yards allowance race at Parx Racing. Sent off as the third choice, he went straight to the lead and held off all challengers en route to a 2 1/4 length victory. He seems to be the kind of colt who just keeps improving, and he looks like a legitimate contender here today. . ."
"Arthur's Tale is the fourth choice on the morning line, and he drew gate five. The son of Bernardini out of Owsley has made four starts thus far, all of them in maiden special weights at a variety of tracks. In the most recent of these races, a one-mile event on the inner track at Aqueduct, he secured his first victory by out gaming Dance City inside the eighth pole to win by two lengths despite being carried wide on the first turn."
What have these horses done since then? Pants On Fire won the Lousiana Derby (gr. II) and finished second in the LeComte (gr. III). J J's Lucky Train won the Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III), the Miracle Wood Stakes, and ran second in the Whirlaway. Arthur's Tale finished second in the Wood Memorial (gr. I).
I find this nearly unbelievable. Who would have guessed that three runners from this race would end up competing so well just a few months later? At the time, the race didn't strike me as a particularly strong field. The order of finish was:
1 Monzon
2 J J's Lucky Train
3 Pants On Fire
4 Arthur's Tale
5 Tap Star
6 Rush Now
Now, if only it were easy to find these key races before all of the runners come back and upset big races at impressive odds. . . :)
So was the Count Fleet Stakes a true key race? Will Monzon run huge and big odds in his next start? On the day of the Count Fleet, he was better than the Louisiana Derby winner and the Wood Memorial runner-up.
Your thoughts?
-Keelerman
The "key race theory" is not the easiest theory to explain, but it is a very easy concept to grasp. The key race theory is the idea that some races have, say, a very solid field of horses that end up performing well in the future. A perfect example was the 2008 Apple Blossom Handicap, a race that was about as key as you can get. Here are the results of that race:
1st Zenyatta
2nd Brownie Points
3rd Ginger Punch
4th Lemon Drop Kid
5th Clever Strike
6th Kettleoneup
In their next starts. . .
• Zenyatta finished 1st in the Milady Handicap (gr. II).
• Brownie Points finished 1st in the Ouija Board Handicap (gr. III).
• Ginger Punch finished 1st in the Louisville Handicap (gr. II).
• Lemon Drop Mom finished 1st in the Winter Melody Stakes.
• Clever Strike finished 1st in an allowance race.
• Kettleoneup finished 5th in the Louisville Stakes (gr. II).
Notice the trend? Five of the six horses that ran in the Apple Blossom came back to win their next start. Now, most key races aren't quite that stunning -- most key races have three, perhaps four, horses return to win their next races.
My favorite kind of key race is what I call the "Key Maiden Race". As the name implies, it is a race for maidens which ends up turning out several very good horses.
Here are a few examples of "Key Maiden Races" that I have always been amazed by:
9-4-10: The 6th at Saratoga
The race was a seven furlong, main track $50,000 maiden special weight for two-year-olds. Here were the entries:
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Lemon Ghost
3 Voodat
4 Astrology
5 Golden Gulch
6 Data Link
7 Economic Summit
8 Scotus (ended up scratching)
9 Punster
10 King Ting
11 Anthony's Cross
12 Praetereo
13 Philippe
14 Dr. Tom G
Also Eligibles
15 Whistlin' Dixie
1a Gallant Dreams (ended up scratching)
Recognize any of those names? Of course you do! Astrology went on to win the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) and ran second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) and Sunland Derby (gr. III). He is a contender for the Kentucky Derby next month. To Honor and Serve won the Nashua (gr. II) and the Remsen (gr. II) to become one of the leading juveniles of 2010. Anthony's Cross won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and is a contender for the Kentucky Derby.
And those were just the best colts to emerge from the race! Data Link has won three straight races on turf and will run in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) this coming Saturday. Philippe was beaten a neck in the Hansel Stakes just last month. Economic Summit has competed in two graded stakes races. King Ting, Punster, Praetereo, and Dr. Tom G all broke their maidens.
That is a key race if I ever saw one! For the record, Astrology won the race by two lengths over To Honor and Serve, with Anthony’s Cross another two lengths back in third.
7-4-09: The 11th at Churchill Downs
What appeared to be an ordinary six furlong maiden special weight for two-year-olds turned out to be a spectacular key maiden race. The winner was Thiskyhasnolimit, who went on to win the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III). The runner-up was Worldly, a solid colt who has placed in a variety of graded stakes events. Finishing seventh was Paddy O'Prado, who hit the board in seven graded stakes races in 2010, with the Secretariat (gr. I), Virginia Derby (gr. II), and the Colonial Turf Cup Stakes (gr. II) among his victories.
8-1-09: The 6th at Saratoga
The race was a six-furlong main track allowance race for two-year-olds. Finishing first was Dublin, who went on to win the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I). The runner-up was Hockley, who went on to become a solid allowance horse. In third was Eightfiveinafifty, the blazingly fast colt who won the 2010 Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III). Fourth was Discreetly Mine, who won the 2010 King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. I) and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II). Even last-place finisher, Krypton, went on to great things. He won the grade III Hill Prince Stakes and finished third in a pair of other graded stakes races.
6-11-09: The 7th at Churchill Downs
An ordinary Thursday at Churchill Downs is not the place where one usually looks for key maiden races, but this was an exception. In a five furlong maiden special weight, the winner was Backtalk, who went on to win the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) and become a solid lower-level stakes sprinter. Finishing second was the above-mentioned Thiskyhasnolimit. In third was Red Rally, who won three Louisiana-bred stakes races in 2009. And in fourth was Dublin, the grade I winner who I also mentioned above.
6-10-10: The 2nd at Belmont Park
This race is without a doubt one of the most fascinating I've ever seen. The winner was Bail Out the Cat, who finished second in the Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) later that year. But it was the horses he beat who ended up doing the best running. 2 1/4 lengths behind him was Soldat, who as we all know went on to win the Fountain of Youth (gr. II), With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III), and run second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) and the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III). And finishing third was Pluck, whose thrilling late runs earned him victories in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) and Summer Stakes (gr. III).
****
Now, about the Count Fleet Stakes, run on January 1st 2011. Although the horses emerging from the race on the whole didn’t do anything spectacular in their next starts, it's looking more and more like a key race with every passing week.
Here were the entries:
#/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Pants On Fire (5-2)
2 J J's Lucky Train (7-2)
3 Tap Star (10-1)
4 Rush Now (3-1)
5 Arthur's Tale (4-1)
6 Isn't He Perfect (Scratched)
7 Monzon (10-1)
And here are a few lines that I wrote about the race when handicapping it on this blog at the time:
"As today is Saturday, there are several good races carded across the country, including several stakes races for the new three-year-olds. Although none of them are graded, they could potentially impact the Triple Crown Trail in major ways. This week's feature race shall be the Count Fleet Stakes, a $65,000 stakes races run over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct at a distance of one mile and seventy yards."
"The morning line favorite is Pants On Fire, who drew the rail. A son of Jump Start out of Cabo de Noche, he lost two maiden special weight races before coming through with a dominating performance going a mile at Delaware Park. Sent off as the favorite in the maiden special weight event, he quickly took the lead and drew off easily to win by seven lengths. His next-and most recent-start came in an allowance optional claiming event going a mile and seventy yards over the Aqueduct inner track. Sent off as the third choice, he took the lead from the outset despite stumbling at the start and led all the way into the stretch before grudgingly giving way to Rescind the Trade. He ended up second, beaten a neck; 5 1/4 lengths in front of the third place finisher. The performance was excellent; one which definitely earns him the status as favorite today."
"This brings us to J J's Lucky Train, the third choice. Trained by William Anderson, the son of Silver Train out of the Thunder Gulch mare Delta Sensation broke his maiden in sharp fashion first time out. Sent off at nearly 8-1 in a maiden claiming event at Monmouth Park, he rated just off the pace before making a bold bid to win the 5-1/2 furlong event by 2 1/2 lengths. This strong victory warranted a start in the grade III Sapling Stakes, also at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 37-1, he ended up sixth, beaten six lengths after failing to menace. This performance, lackluster as it was, raised his odds in his next start, a six-furlong starter allowance race at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 2-1, he made his odds seem like a bargain as he powered past the leader turning for home to draw off and win by nearly six lengths, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:10 3/5. Amazingly, this impressive run was not enough to earn him the status of favorite in his most recent start, a one mile and seventy yards allowance race at Parx Racing. Sent off as the third choice, he went straight to the lead and held off all challengers en route to a 2 1/4 length victory. He seems to be the kind of colt who just keeps improving, and he looks like a legitimate contender here today. . ."
"Arthur's Tale is the fourth choice on the morning line, and he drew gate five. The son of Bernardini out of Owsley has made four starts thus far, all of them in maiden special weights at a variety of tracks. In the most recent of these races, a one-mile event on the inner track at Aqueduct, he secured his first victory by out gaming Dance City inside the eighth pole to win by two lengths despite being carried wide on the first turn."
What have these horses done since then? Pants On Fire won the Lousiana Derby (gr. II) and finished second in the LeComte (gr. III). J J's Lucky Train won the Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III), the Miracle Wood Stakes, and ran second in the Whirlaway. Arthur's Tale finished second in the Wood Memorial (gr. I).
I find this nearly unbelievable. Who would have guessed that three runners from this race would end up competing so well just a few months later? At the time, the race didn't strike me as a particularly strong field. The order of finish was:
1 Monzon
2 J J's Lucky Train
3 Pants On Fire
4 Arthur's Tale
5 Tap Star
6 Rush Now
Now, if only it were easy to find these key races before all of the runners come back and upset big races at impressive odds. . . :)
So was the Count Fleet Stakes a true key race? Will Monzon run huge and big odds in his next start? On the day of the Count Fleet, he was better than the Louisiana Derby winner and the Wood Memorial runner-up.
Your thoughts?
-Keelerman
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