Welcome to the first "Keelerman's Kentucky Derby Top Ten" of 2012! Although I usually include twenty horses on my lists, I thought it would be better to start out with ten and and add ten more for next week's edition, after Saturday's major prep races are run. Enjoy!
1. In the Beat (Street Sense - Rythmical Beat, by Fusaichi Pegasus)
Okay, this is bold, putting a colt on top with only a maiden win to his credit, but I really think this colt could be something very special. Despite being bred to be a route horse, this colt broke his maiden sprinting six furlongs at Churchill Downs for the same connections as 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. Rallying from far behind under Calvin Borel, the colt skimmed the rail and made up four lengths in the final eighth to defeat next-out winner Radiant Talent by a half-length. He is entered to race on Saturday in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park.
2. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer)
He was beaten only a length in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by Hansen and Union Rags, never really threatening for the win but remaining right in contention nevertheless. A beautifully bred son of Giant's Causeway, he is one colt who will not have any issues with classic distances and should in fact relish additional distance. He's probably the best colt in California right now and certainly doesn't need any more graded earnings to make the Derby.
3. Hansen (Tapit - Sunday Warning, by Sir Cat)
You can debate all day whether this colt or Union Rags has more potential for next year, but I'm putting Hansen on top because he defeated the latter in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) while racing against a bias toward closers. A front-running colt, he could have some issues in races with a hot pace, but he was dead-game in the Breeders' Cup and that can be an important factor in Triple Crown races. The Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream will be his first start of the year.
4. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West)
This colt probably deserves to be higher than fourth, but I just didn't like the way he failed to catch Hansen in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in what was his first start around two turns. Admittedly, he was caught wide in the Breeders' Cup and I certainly respect his trainer's abilities to prepare a horse for the Triple Crown, but I'd like to see this colt in another two-turn race before putting him any higher.
5. Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again)
This colt closed strongly against Liaison in the Real Quiet Stakes, and then closed even stronger against that same rival in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). In the latter race, he was forced to circle the field seven or eight horses wide, but nevertheless inhaled the majority of his rivals while falling just a neck short of Liaison at the finish. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, I'm expcting this colt -- who is proven on dirt, by the way -- to have a very, very big year in 2012.
6. Exfactor (Exchange Rate - Bright Magic, by Prized)
I've had my eye on this colt ever since he took the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill during the spring meet, and his win in the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds a few days ago certainly has me excited about his future. Coming off of a five-month layoff, in a race possibly too short for him, he battled the length of the stretch with Laurie's Rocket before sticking his nose in front and keeping it there for the final few strides. I can't wait to see this colt stretch out beyond six furlongs. The LeComte Stakes (gr. III) later this month could be just the spot to do it.
7. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop)
Perhaps the best of Bob Baffert's juveniles at this point, he has shown good tactical speed and a strong late kick in both of his stakes wins, including a narrow victory in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). Being by Indian Charlie, one must wonder if a mile and a quarter is beyond his range, but he has Belmont Stakes (gr. I) winner Victory Gallop as a broodmare sire and that could help him out in that long final furlong of the Churchill Downs homestretch.
8. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector)
An undefeated colt owned by WinStar Farm, Gemologist defeated the highly-regarded Ever So Lucky by 1 3/4 lengths to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) in sharp fashion. He is perhaps Todd Pletcher's leading hopeful for the Kentucky Derby at this time. Interestingly, Todd Pletcher's lone Derby win to date came with Super Saver, another Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes winner.
9. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy)
A full-brother to 2011 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I) and likely Eclipse champion Royal Delta, Empire Way has finished sixth in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) and fifth in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) -- not the kind of credentials you would hope to see in a top Derby horse. But he was only beaten 2 3/4 lengths in the CashCall and I have the feeling that this colt is going to improve dramatically with age. I definitely feel this colt could be a major threat this year.
10. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike)
A half-brother to 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, Dullahan's biggest successes to date has come on synthetic and turf -- including a strong win in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) -- but he did show enough talent on dirt to run fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) despite a bad start. He could prep for the Kentucky Derby in a number of places, but seeing that he is trained by Dale Romans, a Florida-based route to the Derby would not surprise me.
-Keelerman
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