This week's Triple Crown Countdown will be split into three seperate posts spread over three days. The first post -- which you are reading right now -- will cover Saturday's California Derby at Golden Gate Fields, as well as the multitude of interesting maiden and allowance races spread across the country. The second post will discuss Sunday's racing action, including the Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II) for fillies out at Santa Anita. Finally, the third post shall include all the details on Monday's Smarty Jones Stakes at Aqueduct, including the three-year-old debut of the highly regarded filly On Fire Baby. Let us begin!
California Derby
One and One Sixteenth Miles on the Golden Gate Fields Tapeta Track
A field of seven shall head to the post in this major prep race for February's El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), the biggest and most prestigious of the three-year-old races in Northern California.
Here are the entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Senor Rain | Peter Miller |
| 2 | Hodge | Michael Machowsky |
| 3 | Unveiled Heat | Steven Specht |
| 4 | Cahill Chrome | Roger Hansen |
| 5 | Blacky the Bull | Jeff Bonde |
| 6 | Russian Greek | Jerry Hollendorfer |
| 7 | Reconstruction | Jerry Hollendorfer |
The morning line favorite at 9-5 is Hodge, who broke his maiden second time out at Santa Anita and most recently finished a strong third in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III). He has subsequently trained very well and figures to get a good ride, considering that he will be ridden by the perrenial leading rider at Golden Gate, Russell Baze. The only issue could be stretching out beyond seven furlongs, which he has yet to do, but I doubt it will pose much of a problem.
Russian Greek is the second choice at 5-2, based on his 2-for-3 record which includes a strong victory in the Gold Rush Stakes. One of two entries in this race trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, expect to see him off of the pace early on and has a great pedigree for long distances. If Hodge doesn't take to the distance of this race, expect Russian Greek to mow him down late.
The connections of Senor Rain obviously feel he his something special, for he was entered in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita last weekend before scratching. He has yet to win a stakes race -- and his only two victories to date have come in a maiden claiming event and a starter allowance race -- but he has placed in three stakes events, including the Real Quiet Stakes behind subsequent grade I winner Liaison. This race should give us a better idea of just how good this colt is.
Blacky the Bull and Cahill Chrome were beaten 1 1/2 and 2 3/4 lengths, respectively, by Russian Greek in the Gold Rush Stakes, but both have room for improvement. Blacky the Bull set a good pace in the Gold Rush before tiring late in the stretch, and while this distance may be a bit long for him, there doesn't appear to be much other early speed he and he may end up escaping with unchallenged fractions. Cahill Chrome may or may not appreciate the added distance, but should be putting in at least a mild run late.
Reconstruction, the other Hollendorfer-trainee in this race, lost his first two starts but broke through with an impressive victories going six furlongs in 1:10.50 over this same Golden Gate Tapeta track. This will be his first start against winners -- and his first start beyond six furlongs, and around two turns -- but I think he's got some talent and could be one to watch further down the road even if he doesn't win here tomorrow.
The longshot in this field at 12-1 is Unveiled Heat, a colt that lost his first seven starts before taking a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight on the turf last time out. Like Reconstruction, this race is a major step up in class and could prove a very difficult spot to face winners for the first time.
My selections are:
1 Russian Greek
2 Hodge
3 Reconstruction
4 Senor Rain
5 Blacky the Bull
6 Unveiled Heat
7 Cahill Chrome
And J.R.'s are:
1 Senor Rain
2 Russian Greek
3 Hodge
4 Blacky the Bull
5 Cahill Chrome
6 Reconstruction
7 Unveiled Heat
Other Races of Note
There are a number of fascinating minor stakes, allowance, and maiden special weight races scheduled to be run tomorrow at a variety of racetracks, with a number of very promising horses entered.
We shall begin by looking briefly at the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Four of the ten horses entered have caught my eye: For Oby, Burning Time, Adirondack King, and Prospective. The first mentioned of the quartet had a very good juvenile campaign, winning the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes at Calder Race Course and missing by a nose in Gulfstream's Spectacular Bid Stakes. Burning Time won the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder before finishing fifth in the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes, second in the Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes, and a close eighth in the Dania Beach Stakes. Adirondack King has won three straight at Parx with little urging, and figures to try and take the race on the front end. Prospective is 2-for-3 over Woodbine's Polytrack, including a victory in the Grey Stakes (gr. III), but hasn't raced since finishing thirteenth and last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). Any of those four could win this race in dominating fashion, and then potentially move on to start in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) in March.
The Saturday card at Oaklawn contains three races of note. To begin with, there are a pair of mile and a sixteenth main track maiden special weight events for three-year-olds. The first one, carded as race two, features a horse that I have had my eye on for a while: Najjaar. The son of Jazil has not raced since November 26th, when he made a bold four-wide sweeping bid from last in a mile and a sixteenth Churchill Downs maiden race to finish third, beaten 2 3/4 lengths. Behind him that day, finishing sixth, was Tetradrachm, who has since stamped himself as a potential Louisiana Derby contender with a soild win in a recent Fair Grounds maiden special weight. If Najaar fails to fire, then Gameday News, -- fifth in that same maiden race against Najaar -- as well as Double Rah Rah, Mucho Macho Uno, and Followyourdaddy, should be major contenders.
The other maiden race features a 6-5 morning line favorite in Chalybeate Springs, who finished fifth in each and every one of his first six starts before finishing second to Casual Trick in a one-mile Churchill maiden race. Casual Trick returned to finish second in the Gulfstream Park Derby, so we know he has talent. Thus, Chalybeate Springs should be ready to break his own maiden impressively tomorrow.
Also on the Oaklawn card is the $50,000 Dixie Belle Stakes for three-year-old fillies. The 4-5 morning line favorite is Now I Know, a highly impressive daughter of Pure Prize that is undefeated in five starts for trainer Don Von Hemel. Her smallest margin of victory is two lengths, that coming in her first start, and she hasn't even really been challenged since then. The only filly that I can see challenging her for the win is Rocket Twentyone, winner of the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (gr. III) last September, but she hasn't raced since finishing thirteenth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I).
At Gulfstream, a pair of seven-furlong maiden special weights are the races to watch. The first one features a number of first-time starters, led by Todd Pletcher's Spring Hill Farm; a son of Birdstone named Bird Tale; and the Shadwell Stable-bred and -owned Al Aqsa. I have the feeling that more than one nice colt is going to emerge from this race.
In the second event, Ecabroni, a Todd Pletcher-trained colt that finished second in his only start to date, looks like the one to beat. A son of Smoke Glacken, he ran into a talented colt named One Sock Down in his first start and figures to be sharper for today's race. Rise Against should also be a major contender, based off of his pace-setting third last time out in a one-mile Gulfstream maiden special weight to a promising colt in Dan and Sheila.
And finally, at Aqueduct, there is a six-furlong maiden special weight on the main track featuring several promising-looking young runners. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has a pair racing for Darley; they will run as a coupled entry and neither will be racing on Lasix. Named Original Art and Le Berardin, they are both first-time starters that appear to have unlimited potential. The morning line favorite is Rockin Boogie, who is winless in three starts for trainer Bruce Levine but has run second in his last two and figures to get a good trip with leading rider Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. A couple of other ones to keep your eyes on are Municipal Finance and Wild Target.
All in all, it's looking like a great day of racing! Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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