Thursday, January 19, 2012

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- January 19th, 2012

Here are my recaps of last weekend's major Derby preps, including the Smarty Jones Stakes and California Derby. Enjoy!

Stakes Race Recaps

California Derby
Thoughts: Russian Greek looked really good coming from way off the pace, and being by Giant's Causeway, additional distance should not be an issue. Whether or not he is talented enough to handle the best three-year-olds of 2012 is open to debate, but he looks like a heavy favorite for the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) next month.

Pasco Stakes
Thoughts: I'm really looking forward to seeing Prospective stretch back out. I'm honestly surprised he was able to win a race like the Pasco, being a seven-furlong sprint event. Burning Time made an eye-catching move around the turn to reach contention, but was unable to reach the leaders. He too might be one to watch in races with more distance.

Dixie Belle Stakes
Thoughts: Now I Know struck me as a filly that, while immensely talented, may be more of a sprinter type who can get a mile under the right circumstances. We'll get a chance to see what kind of a router she could be in the Martha Washington Stakes next month, also at Oaklawn Park.

Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II)
Thoughts: The burst of speed Reneesgotzip displayed turning for home was simply breathtaking, and the fact that she sustained it all the way to the finish was equally impressive. Like Now I Know, this filly must still prove herself going long, but even if she isn't as good routing, I feel that she will win more than her fair share of sprint races in the future.

Smarty Jones Stakes
Thoughts: I thought that the filly On Fire Baby ran very well, being hung wide throughout and not being badly beaten at all, but I was especially impressed by the top two finishers. Junebugred showed a terrific turn of foot to get through that hole on the rail, while Reckless Jerry ran huge despite being hung five wide all the way around. I'm not sure why Optimizer ran as poorly as he did, so it might be wise to give him another chance before tossing him out of Derby consideration.

Jimmy Winkfield Stakes
Thoughts: I thought it was pretty amazing that the two Rick Dutrow-trainees ran 1-2 in this event off of just three days' rest. Yes -- just three days after they ran 1-4 in an optional claiming race at Aqueduct, the duo returned to run 1-2 in a stakes race. Amazing. The final time was only 1:11.72 -- well off of the 1:08 4/5 that Fort Hughes ran in winning this event last year -- but King and Crusader has proven himself several times now that he is a colt to be reckoned with and merits respect wherever he goes.

Other Race Recaps

Race 2 at Oaklawn on 1/14/12: Read Recap. Najjaar has been on my Derby watch list for a while, so you can imagine how pleased I was to see him win this race. I loved the way he leveled off and finished with a rush to get the victory against all odds. His connections are considering a possible start in the $250,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) here at Oaklawn next month.

Race 7 at Oaklawn on 1/15/12: Read Recap. I thought Atigun looked really good winning this race -- stamping himself as a Southwest Stakes contender in the process -- and without Lasix too. But it is worth noting that there was some serious bumping at the start, and Cyber Secret, the second choice and expected to be part of the early pace, got off to a poor beginning and never threatened. So keep an eye on both Atigun and Cyber Secret!

Race 5 at Oaklwan on 1/14/12: An identical race to the one that Najjaar won, the fifth race on Saturday at Oaklawn went in sharp fashion to Chalybeate Springs, the odds-on favorite. Runner-up to the stakes-placed Casual Trick when the latter broke his maiden, Chalybeate Springs settled off of a quick pace of :22.77 and :46.98 before moving in and wearing down his competition in the stretch to win by 1 1/4 lengths. However, a couple of things concern me. The final time for the mile and a sixteenth was only 1:49.37, with a final sixteenth run in :7.32 seconds -- very slow times indeed. Three races earlier, Najjar had stopped the clock for the same distance in 1:46.92, despite a slower pace. Just something to keep in mind.

Race 3 at Gulfstream Park on 1/14/12: The Todd Pletcher first-time starter Spring Hill Farm did not disappoint the bettors that sent him off as the odds-on favorite, bursting clear of the field in the stretch to win by 6 1/4 lengths. The colt got off to a quick beginning and led through fractions of :23.46 and :47.69. He seemed to be slowing down after running three-quarters of 1:12.42, but responded to a challenge from Quick Wit by throwing in a :12.09 final eighth to complete the seven furlong race in 1:24.51. Quick Wit finished 5 3/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field, making it clear that Spring Hill Farm was vastly superior to the majority of his rivals. I see stakes races in his future.

Race 7 at Gulfstream Park on 1/14/12: Another seven-furlong maiden special weight on the Gulfstream card, Todd Pletcher won this one too, with heavily favored Ecabroni. The colt was coming off of a second-place finish to a nice colt in One Sock Down in December maiden race -- also at Gulfstream -- and figured to dominate this event. While he didn't exactly dominate, he did take the field gate-to-wire to win by two lengths. Rise Against put in a good challenge in the homestretch to get within a length of the front, but failed to sustain his bid in the late stages of the race. The final time was 1:24.76, 0.25 seconds slower than the time recorded by Spring Hill Farm earlier on the card. Ecabroni did set a faster pace, running three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.71, but tired late to close his final eighth in only :13.05. It will be interesting to see which colt turns out better.

Race 2 at Aqueduct on 1/14/12: Rockin Boogie was the odds-on favorite in this six-furlong maiden special weight, but he could only manage a second-place finish for the third straight time. The winner turned out to be Hardened Wildcat, a son of Hard Spun sent off as the 3.75-1 second choice. Reserved just behind the early pace by jockey Junior Alvarado, Hardened Wildcat showed a good burst of speed to split horses in the homestretch and draw off to win by 3 1/4 lengths in 1:10.88. The Withers Stakes (gr. III) next month could be a good spot if his connections wish to step him up into stakes company; otherwise, there will undoubtedly be some good allowance races coming up that could be ideal preps for the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) in March.

Race 4 at Aqueduct on 1/15/12: Quorum was the heavy favorite, but Two Seventeen stole the show at nearly 7-1. After tracking the pace all the way around the racetrack, he tackled Quorum in the stretch and powered away to win by 3 3/4 lengths. A bit concerning is that the final time for a mile and seventy yards was only 1:43.49, but I liked the way Two Seventeen looked and feel he could be something nice in the future.

Race 7 at Oaklawn on 1/16/12: Favored Pee H Dee won this one-mile allowance race on the Smarty Jones Stakes undercard, battling with Z Rockstar through the stretch to win by a neck. The final quarter mile was run in a slow :26.93 seconds -- despite a slow early pace -- so it's possible that these colts are a bit on the slow side for competing with success in graded stakes races, but this is the time of year when young horses improve in leaps and bounds, so keep those two names in mind.

Race 3 at Santa Anita on 1/16/12: Cloud Hopper finally put it all together and broke his maiden after several good attempts at doing so last year. After sitting third early on behind the dueling duo of Treacherous and Frenemy, Cloud Hopper was guided into the three path by Joseph Talamo for clear sailing and the colt responded with an impressive turn of foot that carried him to a 1 1/4 length victory. Cat's Enough closed well to finish second, but never seriously threatened the winner. It will be interesting to see where Cloud Hopper -- who has now run on Cushion Track, Polytrack, Turf, and Dirt -- will turn up next.

Race 7 at Gulfstream Park on 1/16/12: A five-furlong turf allowance race for three-year-olds, I had my eye on this race strictly because Clip the Coupons -- who broke his maiden nicely at Saratoga -- was making his 2012 debut. While he didn't win, he did turn in a simply amazing performance to finish second. After hitting the gate at the start, Clip the Coupons was dead last early on, trailing the field by 12 1/2 lengths for a good portion of the race. But then was angled to the far outside by jockey Jose Lezcano and turned in a simply unheard of late run, flying down the center of the racetrack to miss catching victorious Artest after trailing by 6 1/2 passing the eighth pole. Seeing that the final eighth was timed in :11.85 seconds, I can't imagine how fast Clip the Coupons must have been running at the finish. He probably turned in a :10 and change final eighth!

-Keelerman

No comments:

Post a Comment