And believe it or not, the first major prep race of the year, the $100,000 Gulfstream Park Derby, has already been run. It came down to an exciting stretch duel between Reveron and Casual Trick, with the former hanging tough for a half-length victory in game fashion. But Casual Trick, trained by Nick Zito, lost nothing in defeat. He came into the race with only two starts under his belt, and had never faced winners. His runner-up effort signals that he could be a colt to watch as the prep races unfold.
Saturday brings us more Triple Crown prep races, with the $100,000 Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita and the $150,000 Count Fleet Stakes headlining the weekend. Let us dive into the Triple Crown season in style and try to pick a few winners!
Sham Stakes (gr. III)
One Mile on the Santa Anita dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Senor Rain | Joe Talamo |
| 2 | Out of Bounds | Garrett Gomez |
| 3 | Hierro | Julien Leparoux |
| 4 | Secret Circle | Rafael Bejarano |
| 5 | Longview Drive | Joel Rosario |
| 6 | Handsome Mike | Corey Nakatani |
The favorite will probably be the undefeated Secret Circle, trained by the always formidable Bob Baffert. He already has two stakes wins under his belt, including the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, but will be making his first start beyond six furlongs. Seeing that he has :21-and-change speed -- or even faster -- it is very possible that he is nothing more than a blazingly fast sprinter who will fold when asked to run farther. But his pedigree is stout enough to suggest that a mile is well within his range, and with Santa Anita's main track tending to favor early speed, it's also very possible that he could simply run them off the feet early and coast home unchallenged.
If there is a horse that has the speed to put the pressure on Secret Circle early, it is Handsome Mike. The son of Scat Daddy has shown good speed in all three of his starts, most recently setting the pace in the grade I CashCall Futurity before tiring late to finish seventh, beaten only 2 3/4 lengths. If Corey Nakatania sends his colt for the lead, he could engage Secret Circle in a speed duel that would allow us all to see what kind of stamina Secret Circle has.
Out of Bounds is a Darley-bred, Darley-owned son of Discreet Cat trained by Eoin Harty. After finishing fourth behind eventual Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) So Brilliant, he came back to break his maiden sharply second time out, rallying three wide over the Hollywood Park main track to win going seven furlongs in 1:23.17. He has been training exceptionally well, and could prove a major threat if able to stretch out another furlong, which should not be an issue. Interestingly, he has not been racing on Lasix and will not on Saturday.
The Steve Asmussen-trained Hierro broke his maiden second-time out in sharp fashion at Churchill Downs, tracking the pace before bursting clear to win by a very easy 5 1/4 lengths. He appears to be an immensely talented colt, and his pedigree should be strong enough to carry him well beyond a mile.
Longview Drive, a son of Puplit from the barn of Jerry Hollendorfer, won three straight races in northern California before closing from last to finish third against behind Sabercat and Basmati in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Futurity (gr. III). However, his three victories have all came when he was on or near the lead, so it's possible that Longview Drive could be right up near the early pace on Saturday. Joel Rosario, the co-leading rider of the young meet, retains the mount.
Rounding out the field is Senor Rain, by far the most experienced colt in the field with seven starts under his belt. When last seen, the Peter Miller-trainee was pulled up in the early stages of the Generous Stakes (gr. III) after bearing out badly. Previously, he had finished third in the Real Quiet Stakes after setting a slow pace. But the fact remains that his two victories to date were a maiden claiming race at Del Mar and a starter allowance race at Santa Anita. He will likely have to turn in the performance of his life to win in this spot.
Here are my picks:
1 Secret Circle
2 Hierro
3 Out of Bounds
3 Handsome Mike
4 Longview Drive
6 Senor Rain
And here are J.R.'s picks:
1 Out of Bounds
2 Hierro
3 Longview Drive
4 Secret Circle
5 Handsome Mike
6 Senor Rain
Count Fleet Stakes
One Mile and Seventy Yards on the Aqueduct inner dirt track
Entries:
PP/Horse/Jockey
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Il Villano | Jose Flores |
| 2 | How Do I Win | Cornelio Velasquez |
| 3 | Whistleblower | Ariel Smith |
| 4 | Stephanoatsee | Junior Alvarado |
| 5 | Alpha | Ramon Dominguez |
| 6 | Speightscity | David Cohen |
| 6 | Shkspeare Shaliyah | Jose Valdivia, Jr. |
The odds-on morning line favorite is Alpha at 4-5, and deservedly so. While he only has a maiden win to his credit, he did finish second to early Kentucky Derby favorite Union Rags in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I). An eleventh-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) appears to have been more a result of bad luck than any lack of talent, and the son of Bernardini appears ready to rebound in sharp fashion on Saturday. He will be racing on Lasix for the first time.
Il Villano is the second choice on the morning line off of three straight victories. Trained by Susan Crowell, the son of Pollard's Vision broke his maiden by eleven lengths going six furlongs at Parx Racing, then won the Lord Henribree Stakes over the Aqueduct outer dirt track in sharp fashion. Most recently, he dominated Parx's Southampton Stakes by five lengths as the 1-10 favorite. This will be his first start beyond six furlongs, and his pedigree isn't exactly the strongest for routing, but being a son of Pollard's Vision should help him to stretch out to a mile.
Stephanoatsee, a son of A.P. Indy from the barn of Graham Motion, broke his maiden going a mile at Laurel Park, then ran a late-running seventh in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II), beaten 4 1/4 lengths in a race with an extremely slow early pace and fast final fractions. This is a colt that should get a lot better with additional distance and maturity, so while he may not be ready to win on Saturday, he could be a legitimate Wood Memorial (gr. I) contender.
Speightscity looked good breaking his maiden by 11 1/2 lengths going nine furlongs at Saratoga, but his next two runs yielded dismal efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and the Remsen Stakes (gr. II), beaten a combined total of 21 3/4 lengths. He then rebounded to win an allowance optional claiming event by 1 3/4 lengths, but in the slow time of 1:44.65 for a mile and seventy yards. Trained by Gary Contessa, the colt obviously has talent, but may simply be a bit on the slow side against this caliber of competition.
One especially intriguing contender is Shkspeare Shaliyah, a graded stakes winner of turf making his debut on dirt. Trained by Doodnauth Shivmangal, the colt took Belmont's Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III) while closing rapidly into a ridiculously slow pace, then finished ninth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I), beaten 6 1/2 lengths. While is pedigree is perhaps biased toward turf -- being a son of the brilliant dual grade I winner Shakespeare -- his trainer has expressed interest in seeing how this colt performs on dirt and it's possible that Shkspeare Shaliyah could relish the surface change. We shall see.
The two longshots in this race are How Do I Win, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, and Whistleblower, trained by Kenneth McPeek. The former disappointed in his first three starts, the first two as the odds-on favorite, before dropping into a maiden claiming event and promptly winning by 17 1/2. He then took a starter allowance race to bring his record to two wins in five starts, and while this race is a large step up in class, it is possible that he has simply improved enough since his disappointing maiden special weight days to be a legitimate contender in this spot. Whistleblower lost his first two races -- albeit against some very good horses like Sabercat, Dullahan, Daddy Nose Best, Big Blue Nation, and Lockout -- before breaking through with a victory in a six furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct. His pedigree is perhaps geared more toward sprints than route races, but it should nevertheless be interesting to see how he performs on Saturday.
My picks are:
1 Alpha
2 Stephanoatsee
3 Shkspeare Shaliyah
4 How Do I Win
5 Il Villano
6 Speightscity
7 Whistleblower
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Stephanoatsee
2 Alpha
3 Speightscity
4 How Do I Win
5 Shkspeare Shaliyah
6 Whistleblower
7 Il Villano
Other Races of Note
There are a few other races that bear watching over the weekend, perhaps the most intriguing of which is the seventh race on Gulfstream's Saturday card.
A one-mile allowance optional claiming event, a field of nine has turned out, led by the promising Todd Pletcher-trainee Discreet Dancer. A son of Discreet Cat, the colt broke his maiden first time out sprinting 5-1/2 furlongs at Gulfstream, drawing away to win by 9 3/4 lengths in track-record time of 1:02.34. He will get a chance to prove in this spot that he can be successful in longer races, and he will have to pass that test in flying colors in order to win because there are several other good colts with stronger pedigrees for this distance that will be chasing him home in an attempt to pull off the upset.
One of them is In the Beat, a son of Street Sense that broke his maiden in impressive fashion at Churchill sprinting six furlongs. Bred to run much farther than that, even the one-mile distance of today's race may be a bit short for him. Racing for the same connections as 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, I believe that this colt has a huge future ahead of him and am looking forward to seeing how he does on Saturday.
Other contenders are One Sock Down, winner of his lone start to date; A Boy Named Em, who broke his maiden going six furlongs at Churchill in a visually impressive performance; and Da Vinci, who turned in a good effort second time out to break his maiden at Calder.
At Santa Anita Park on Saturday, the sixth race of the day is the one that merits attention. A 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds, the morning line favorite is Welter Weight, a son of Smart Strike trained by Steve Asmussen. I have heard tell that he has quite a bit of talent, so I'm greatly looking forward to seeing how well this ridgling performs.
Should he win in dominating fashion, it would say a lot about his talent, for there are a few other proven promising colts in this race that could turn out to be very good ones indeed. They are Consulado, Bobby Flay, and Congrats Ski, the 2-3-4 finishers, respectively, behind the promising Tenacious Thomas. While Consulado clearly ran best in their last meeting, it is worth noting that Congrats Ski broke in the air at the start but still managed to finish fourth. Any of these three colts can win this race, but if they will be up to beating Welter Weight remains to be seen.
You might also want to keep an eye on Sea to Sky, a first time starter trained by Dan Hendricks who will have Mike Smith in the saddle.
Gulfstream's eighth race on Sunday features Margano, a promising full-brother to the 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro. Trained by Barcley Tagg, the colt failed in his first two starts before turning in an impressive effort going a mile and a sixteenth on the Gulfstream turf to break his maiden by 1 1/4 lengths. There are several other good colts in Sunday's mile and a sixteenth turf event, including Africanist, Argentine Tango, Star Channel, and Angel's Tune, so Margano will have to be sharp if he wants to win his first race against other winners.
Sunday's fifth race at Fair Grounds has a strong morning line favorite in Kevil Kid, a filly trained by Albert Stall, Jr., who broke her maiden by six lengths going six furlongs at Fair Grounds in easy fashion. To be ridden by Rosie Napravnik, the leading rider of the Fair Grounds meet, Kevil Kid looks like a promising horse that could make some noise down the road.
Finally, at Turfway Park, there is Saturday's 6-1/2 furlong Turfway Prevue Stakes for three-year-olds. The race has drawn a full field of twelve, with two also-eligibles, but the field doesn't appear to be the strongest for a Triple Crown prep. The 4-1 morning line favorite, Salvatore G, most recently finished fourth in a turf allowance race at Churchill; this effort following a victory in a claiming race. Second choice Mr. Prankster did finish second in the Fitz Dixon, Jr. Memorial Juvenile Stakes at Presque Isle Downs, but most recently ran last of eleven in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). Nevertheless, this race bears watching, as it is the first in a series of Triple Crown prep races at Turfway Park culminating with the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) in March, a race that Animal Kingdom won last year en route to his victory in the Kentucky Derby.
That's it for this week's edition of Triple Crown Countdown! Enjoy the races, everyone!
-Keelerman
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