KEELERMAN'S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP TWENTY - January 20th, 2012

1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
It sounds like he may make his 2012 debut in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II), which is a very interesting decision by his connections, seeing that the race is a seven-furlong sprint. However, I've always believed that it's best to prep newly-turned
three-year-olds in sprint races before stretching them back out around two turns, so I'm actually thrilled with this announcement.

2. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker

Breezed for the second time since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on January 18th, going a half-mile in :49.63. It certainly wasn't a bullet work, but that's not what it was supposed to be. I think it was a great second step toward the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) toward the end of February.

4. Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
Has already recorded five workouts since finishing second in the CashCall Futurity last December, so I expect he'll be racing again soon. I really hope he goes in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), because I would love to see him in a rematch with Liaison.

5. Exfactor (Exchange Rate - Bright Magic, by Prized) Trained by Bernard Flint
He's entered in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) on Saturday, but according to DRF.com, he apparently injured his hind end and is expected to scratch. It doesn't sound like a serious issue, but if he does scratch, it could throw off his prep race schedule just a bit.

6. Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat - Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Eoin Harty
The current plan with this colt is to skip the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) in February and instead point toward the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) in March, followed by the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). This would give him three prep races before the Kentucky Derby -- but it's worth noting that the last six winners of the Kentucky Derby all had just two prep races prior to their victory in the Run for the Roses.

7. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) Trained by Bob Baffert
He has been training simply great since his CashCall Futurity win, most recently breezing six furlongs in 1:11 flat on January 19th at Santa Anita. He should be fit and ready to add another graded stakes victory to his résumé in the Robert B. Lewis in early February.

Still hasn't returned to the worktab, so I guess there's not a whole lot say about him until he does. It is worth noting, however, that a number of horses that he beat in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) have returned to run very well.

9. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
Breezed six furlongs from the gate a couple of days ago, which makes me wonder if they're trying to correct some form of gate issues with this colt. I'm looking forward to seeing how he does as the distances get longer.

10. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
Breezed five furlongs in 1:01.40 at Gulfstream Park last Saturday, but isn't expected to return to the races until March. I'm a bit surprised that his best efforts to date have come on turf and Polytrack, seeing that he is bred to be a dirt horse. And a mile and a quarter dirt horse at that.

11. Algorithms (Bernardini - Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He's on schedule for an expected start against Hansen in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II) at the end of this month, which should give us a good idea of just how good this colt is. It will be his first start against stakes' horses and his first in a route race, so if he runs well -- watch out.

12. Ever So Lucky (Indian Charlie - Bally Storm, by Summer Squall) - Trained by John Sheppard
Finished a game second despite a difficult trip in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes behind Gemologist, suffering a (very!) minor injury in the process. But nevertheless, he's back on the work tab and looks like a colt that could take Sheppard to the Derby.

13. Sky Kingdom (Empire Maker - Sky Beam, by Kingmambo) Trained by Bob Baffert
While his biggest success has come over dirt and Cushion Track, this horse actually has a bit of a turf-oriented pedigree, which could make him a multi-surface threat later in the year. Seeing that Baffert has so many talented three-year-olds, this could be a very good thing indeed, since for all we know he could find himself prepping on some form of synthetic track in an effort by Baffert to keep all his youngsters seperated.

14. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
Hmm . . . still hasn't breezed since early December. Where has he disappeared to? Seeing that he is trained by Steve Asmussen, he could end up racing at Santa Anita, or Fair Grounds, or Oaklawn, or even Sunland. Let's just hope that he's not out with an injury.

15. Stephanoatsee (A.P. Indy - Oatsee, by Unbridled) Trained by Graham Motion
This is a colt that is going to get better the older he gets -- perhaps even dramatically better. Assuming he continues along the New York trail to the Kentucky Derby, I expect him to be a serious contender in the Wood Memorial (gr. I).

16. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
According to DRF.com, he's been gate training in an attempt to get over some issues he's had at the starting gate in the past. Apparently, it's going well, so let's hope that he breaks cleanly in his next start. After all, if you're going to be a Kentucky Derby contender, then you can't spot any ground at the break.

17. Junebugred (Corinthian - Dixie Melody, by Dixieland Band)
Some will argue that Reckless Jerry was the better horse in the Smarty Jones Stakes -- seeing that Junebugred got a perfect rail trip while Reckless Jerry was five-wide throughout -- and they may be right. But I loved the turn of foot that Junebugred displayed when asked to go for the hole along the rail, and to me, that is an important tactical advantage to have in a race like the Kentucky Derby.

18. Discreet Dancer (Discreet Cat - West Side Dancer, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
The Holy Bull Stakes is obviously coming up too quickly for this colt, so where will he run next? Will he point to the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) in February? A generic Gulfstream allowance race? Or will he ship out of town? Stay closely tuned, because this colt has a whole lot of talent and will be a threat wherever he runs.

19. Reckless Jerry (Cactus Ridge - Miss Moneywise, by Crafty Prospector)
I already described his trip in the Smarty Jones when discussing Junebugred, and mentioned why I thought Junebugred might be a stronger Derby contender down the road. But I will give this colt credit for running so well while so wide throughout the race. He does strike me as more of a grinder colt that needs time to get up to full steam, but the son of Cactus Ridge is obviously not lacking in stamina and should give a good account of himself in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) next month, where he will likely face Junebugred once again.

20. Done Talking (Broken Vow - Dixie Talking, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Hamilton Smith
This morning, he breezed for the first time since finishing fourth in the Remsen, going a half-mile in :49 seconds flat at Laurel Park. It's hard to say where this colt will prep for the Triple Crown, seeing that Smith is based at Laurel Park, which oftens no graded stakes races for three-year-olds this time of year.

-KeelermanThe newly-crowned juvenile champion continues to train well toward a start in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. I) in a little more than a week, which will probably be the most exciting race of the young year. He'll probably get a good stiff test too, seeing that a number of promising colts are pointing toward the race. I can't wait to see how he performs.

3. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz 8. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher