Sunday, January 22, 2012

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- January 22nd, 2012

There's not too much going on today in the way of allowance and maiden special weight races for three-year-olds, but there are a pair of interesting listed stakes races that merit a bit of attention, including the $65,000 San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita. Let's take a look at who's running:

San Pedro Stakes
Six and One Half Furlongs on the Santa Anita Dirt Track

Entries:

PPHorseJockey
1Midnight TransferJoel Rosario
2DrillMartin Garcia
3Coach SickieAlonso Quinonez
4Let's Get CrackinVictor Espinoza
5Passing GameKevin Krigger
6Got EvenCorey Nakatani

The 2-1 morning line favorite is Midnight Transfer, a son of Hard Spun trained by Carla Gaines. The colt list his first three starts, all in maiden special weight company, before winning a six furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita by an impressive 4 3/4 lengths, stopping the clock in a brilliant 1:08.02. But it's not like he's a one-dimensional speedster -- his victory came by rating off of the early pace and taking over in the stretch. Perhaps the rail isn't the greatest spot for this colt to be in his stakes debut, but I think he's got the talent to overcome the bad draw and add another victory to his record.

Drill has by far the best credentials of any horse in this race, having won the $250,000 Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and placed in the $250,000 Norfolk Stakes (gr. I), but his last three starts have yielded dismal losses. It's apparent now that the colt is much better sprinting than routing, and the return to 6-1/2 furlongs off of four straight two-turn races should help get him back on the right track.

Got Even and Passing Game both come out of the same race, that being the California Breeders Champion Stakes going seven furlongs over this same Santa Anita main track. Got Even was an impressive winner of that race, going gate-to-wire in 1:21.39 to win by 4 1/4 lengths, but he was never really challenged for the early lead and he'll have to prove that he can handle pace pressure if he is to win today. Passing Game ran well enough to finish third, but never really got into contention after sitting some six lengths off of the early pace. I have the feeling that the track may have been biased toward speed that day, and a fairer track could help his chances here today.

Coach Sickie broke his maiden first time out by 5 1/4 lengths, but then finished fourth behind Passing Game on the Golden Nugget Stakes. He'll have to step up to be in contention today, but I wouldn't be terrible surprised if he were to win. Interestingly, he did beat Russian Greek in the Gold Nugget, a colt that has since won both the California Derby and Gold Rush Stakes.

The last horse in the field is the 12-1 longshot Let's Get Crackin. The most heavily raced runner in the field with eight starts under his belt, the gelded son of Eddington has yet to win a stakes, but has placed second in three such events. The majority of his sprint efforts have been exceptional, and while this will be his first start on a racing circuit on the California caliber, he may just have the talent to earn a piece of this race.

As this is one of the contest races in the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest between J.R. and I, here are our selections:

Keelerman:

1 Midnight Transfer
2 Drill
3 Passing Game
4 Got Even

J.R.:

1 Got Even
2 Drill
3 Midnight Transfer
4 Coach Sickie

Other Races of Note

Actually, the above name for this section is inaccurate. It should read The Other Race of Note, as there is only one other race that I shall discuss today, that being the Sweetest Chant Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

A one-mile turf event for three-year-old fillies, the race originally drew ten entries, but two scratches have reduced the field to eight. The field is led by Dayatthespa, runner-up in Woodbine's Natalma Stakes (gr. III) last September and ninth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). She is making her first start since then Breeders' Cup, and while she may prove best in the spot, there are several other notable contenders capable of pulling a mild upset.

The top three finishers from Gulfstream's Ginger Brew Stakes last December -- Frolic's Revenge, Ready Signal, and Ann of the Dance -- all look capable of running a winning race, the latter especially. While Frolic's Revenge and Ready Signal occupied the two leading positions throughout the Ginger Brew, Ann of the Dance was back in traffic, clipping heels and stumbling, before turning in a furious late run to finish third, beaten just three-quarters of a length. A cleaner trip could be all Ann of the Dance needs to find the winner's circle.

Another filly worth mentioning is Awesome Belle, making her first start on turf after eight starts on dirt, including a twelfth-place finish in the Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I). If she takes to the turf, she has the talent to be a major contender in this spot.

Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

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