With two more major prep races in the history books, the Triple Crown trail already looks quite a bit different than it did last week. Handsome Mike and Shkspeare Shaliyah, two well-regarded colts heading into last Saturday's races, probably wrote themselves out of the Triple Crown story with their poor efforts, and Hierro certainly didn't do himself any favors with his last-place effort in the Sham.
On the other hand, Out of Bounds, Alpha, and Discreet Dancer re-affirmed their talants and established themselves as top-tier contenders for the Kentucky Derby. Let's take a look at what happened last week, and then look forward to a couple of promising allowance races carded during the next few days.
Sham Stakes (gr. III) Recap
The heavy favorite was Secret Circle, a son of Eddington trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia. Undefeated in three starts, the brilliant colt had won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint back in November and was making his 2012 debut in the Sham. If there was a chink in his armor, however, it was the fact that he had never raced beyond six furlongs. It was possible that the one-mile distance of the Sham could prove too far for him.
While that may not have actually been the case, Secret Circle did fall to defeat; unable to withstand a furious charge from the highly promising Out of Bounds. A son of Discreet Cat out of the Unbridled's Song mare Unbridled Elaine, Out of Bounds was entering the Sham off of an impressive maiden victory going seven furlongs. Owned by Godolphin Racing and trained by Eoin Harty, the colt settled just in behind the leaders early on as Secret Circle dueled with longshot Longview Drive through testing fractions of :22.66 and :45.89. Handsome Mike and Hierro were the trailers.
As the compact field made their way around the far turn, Secret Circle moved up to challenge Longview Drive for the lead while Hierro made a bold bid on the far outside. The trio hit the quarter pole seperated by little more than a length, with Out of Bounds right behind them and Handsome Mike right in contention too. The entire field was seperated by less than 2 1/2 lengths. With victory still in the grasp of every runner, a thrilling stretch run was to be expected. The horses did not disappoint. Secret Circle found himself narrowly in front passing the eighth pole, but Longview Drive was not done yet and still battled on gamely toward the fence. Two lengths behind them sat Out of Bounds, who after a ground-saving trip, switched to the far outside under Garrett Gomez and set his sights on the leaders. Displaying a terrific late kick, the colt wore down the two leaders in deep stretch to hit the wire first by a half-length in 1:34.56. Considering that the final eighth of a mile was run in :12.54, Out of Bounds thus closed his final eighth of a mile somewhere in the vicinity of :12.14, a very, very good fraction indeed.
Secret Circle ran admirably in defeat, holding second by a half-length over Longview Drive. Another 4 3/4 lengths back was Handsome Mike in fourth, 1 1/4 lengths clear of Hierro. The latter should perhaps be given a second chance before being written off as a non-contender for the Triple Crown races, considering that had to steady off heels twice on the first turn and may have made his bid for the lead just a bit too soon.
So the final results were:
1 Out of Bounds
2 Secret Circle
3 Longview Drive
4 Handsome Mike
5 Hierro
Versus my picks:
1 Secret Circle
2 Hierro
3 Out of Bounds
4 Handsome Mike
5 Longview Drive
And J.R.'s:
1 Out of Bounds
2 Hierro
3 Longview Drive
4 Secret Circle
5 Handsome Mike
Count Fleet Stakes Recap
While Secret Circle may have disappointed as the favorite in the Sham, Alpha pulled through for all those who bet him down to 4-5 in Aqueduct's Count Fleet Stakes. Under leading rider Ramon Dominguez, the colt settled into a perfect position in third as a pair of gray colts, Il Villano and How Do I Win, led the way through fractions of :24.48 and :49.06. Longshot Whistleblower was back in fourth, followed by Stephanoatsee, Speightscity, and Shkspeare Shaliyah -- the latter in last place due to a poor break.
Alpha moved up to challenge for the lead toward the end of the far turn, finding himself just a half-length from the front after three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.91. How Do I Win dropped out of win contention shortly thereafter, leaving Alpha and Il Villano together on the lead to battle it out. The pair raced together until inside the eighth pole, when Alpha -- slowly at first, then quickly -- began to pull and away from his rival. He continued to pour on the speed all the way to the wire, reaching the finish 2 1/2 lenghs clear to complete the one-mile and seventy-yard event in 1:42.83.
Stephanoatsee, from the barn of Graham Motion, rallied furiously inside the final sixteenth to nab Il Villano for second. How Do I Win was another 3 1/2 lengths back in fourth, followed by Speightscity, Whistleblower, and Shkspeare Shaliyah, the latter beaten 25 lengths in a highly disappointing effort.
While the final time was not impressive, one should give Alpha credit for sustaining a good, long drive and showing no signs of slowing down in deep stretch. Being a son of Bernardini out of a Nijinsky II mare, it's likely that this colt will get better with both distance and maturity, which could make him a very competitive colt later in the year -- especially in races like the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), Travers (gr. I), and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I). Stephanoatsee also looks highly promising. I doubt he was fully cranked for this race and he should bet even sharper next time out. Additional distance could help him, too.
So the complete order of finish was:
1 Alpha
2 Stephanoatsee
3 Il Villano
4 How Do I Win
5 Speightscity
6 Whistleblower
7 Shkspeare Shaliyah
Versus my selections:
1 Alpha
2 Stephanoatsee
3 Shkspeare Shaliyah
4 How Do I Win
5 Il Villano
6 Speightscity
7 Wistleblower
And J.R.'s:
1 Stephanoatsee
2 Alpha
3 Speightscity
4 How Do I Win
5 Shkspeare Shaliyah
6 Whistleblower
7 Il Villano
Other Races of Note
As I mentioned on my "Triple Crown Countdown" of January 6th, there was a great one-mile allowance race on the Saturday card at Gulfstream, featuring such promising runners as Discreet Dancer, In the Beat, A Boy Named Em, One Sock Down, and others. The big favorite was Discreet Dancer, and while I certainly respected his chances, I was a bit concerned about him stretching out from a track-record setting performance at 5-1/2 furlongs to a one-mile event against such talented competition. But I needn't have worried, for Discreet Dancer pulled away in the stretch to win in huge fashion. Read the full details here.
Quite disappointing was In the Beat, a colt I really liked going into the race -- to the point where I even put him first in my opening Kentucky Derby Top Ten. However, after dropping well off the pace under Calvin Borel, the colt completely failed to fire and wound up finishing seventh, beaten 16 3/4 lengths. I hate to give up on a colt after only one race, and I guess I won't entirely just yet, but that performance was pretty dismal and I suppose that Creative Cause is my new Derby horse for the moment.
Another race I mentioned in my last post was a maiden special weight at Santa Anita, featuring the debut of the highly-regarded Welter Weight. Sent off as the narrow second choice at odds of 1.70-1, the colt actually ran very well to finish second despite some traffic issues. He was just in a different zip code than the winner, Consulado, who powered home under David Flores to win by 7 1/4 lengths, stopping the clock for the 6-1/2 furlong event in a sharp 1:15 flat. I have the feeling that we are going to be hearing the name Consulado a lot in the future.
Also notable is the fact that in Consulado's first start, he finished a good second to a colt named Tenacious Thomas, who has now been seriously flattered by Consulado's subsequent dominating victory. Be sure to watch for Tenacious Thomas's next start, for he too could enter the Derby picture in a big way next time out.
Barbaro's half-brother Margano turned in a pretty good effort in his race at Gulfstream on Sunday, a mile and a sixteenth turf event, but nevertheless wound up finishing seventh. Ridden by Edgar Prado, the colt did encounter a bit of mild trouble, but probably wasn't going to catch the gritty winner Star Channel, who took the field gate-to-wire for trainer Todd Pletcher. Stopping the clock in 1:41.58, Star Channel set a pretty quick early pace but still managed to come home in quick time. I have the feeling that the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) in March could be a good spot for the winner.
The filly Kevil Kid, however, proved very disappointing. As mentioned in my previous post, she broke her maiden by six lengths going six furlongs at Fair Grounds and figured to win Fair Ground's 5-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race on Sunday in equally dominating fashion. Thus sent off as the heavy favorite at 0.30-1, she proceeded to trigger sizeable show payoffs when she failed to hit the board, finishing last of five while beaten by 21 1/4 lengths. It's hard to say what went wrong, but it is clear that Sunday's Kevil Kid was not the same Kevil Kid that broke her maiden so impressively.
However, one should give credit to the winner, Bleu Darling, who set a quick pace before drawing off to win by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:05.30. Trained by Ron Faucheux, she could very well be a good one.
Finally, at Turfway Park, the $50,000 Turfway Park Prevue Stakes -- the first of Turfway's Derby prep races -- went to heavily favored Mr. Prankster in sharp fashion. Entering the race off of a last-place effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), Mr. Prankster settled some six or seven lengths off of the early pace before -- as the Equibase chart describes it -- "wheeled out five wide to make a bold bid, engulfed the leaders inside the furlong marker and quickly drew clear." The final time was not very fast -- 1:18.96 for 6-1/2 furlongs -- but nevertheless bears watching as a contender in the upcoming Turfway three-year-old stakes races.
Other News
While many colts stamped themselves as promising contenders for the Triple Crown, one colt dropped out of consideration due to injury. O'Prado Again, winner of the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) going nine furlongs at Aqueduct back in November, suffered a condylar fraction during a workout and will miss the Triple Crown races. You can read more about it here.
On the other hand, one filly may have just joined the Derby fray. On Fire Baby, winner of the Pocahontas and Golden Rod Stakes (both grade II) during the Churchill Downs fall meet, is being pointed toward a start in the $100,000 Smarty Jones at Aqueduct next Monday. Additional details can be read here.
As for the allowance races mentioned above, there are two that I am especially excited about seeing. The first, at Santa Anita on January 12th, is a mile and a sixteenth main track event featuring a field of five. The favorite will likely be Sky Kingdom, a son of Empire Maker trained by Bob Baffert. The colt broke his maiden in sharp fashion in his third start, then finished a strong fourth in the $750,000 CashCall Futurity (gr. I), beaten by just 2 1/4 lengths. Other logical contenders are Spirit Rules, who broke his maiden sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs at Hollywood Park by 8 1/4 lengths; Sir Allison, a Bob Baffert-trainee who recently won by 4 1/4 against maiden claimers, but who previously finished second to subsequent CashCall Futurity winner Liaison in maiden special weight company; and Smart Ellis, a colt that will be making his debut on dirt but one that has already proven himself in route races.
The other intriguing allowance race is at Fair Grounds on January 13th. A six-furlong event on the main track, the morning line favorite at 7-5 is Radiant Talent, who -- after finishing second in his first two starts -- won a six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds by nearly five lengths. A son of Johannesburg, he may actually end up being a heavier favorite than 7-5.
However, there is another colt in this race that should be watched very closely. Named Mark Valeski, the son of Proud Citizen broke his maiden second time out for trainer Larry Jones in late September and Delaware Park, drawing away to win by 4 1/2 lengths over a subsequent stakes winner in Ancient Rome. He has not raced since then, but has been breezing since mid-December and looks like a very promising colt indeed.
As for next weekend's major racing action, the Smarty Jones Stakes tops a good weekend of Derby prep races that also including the $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields. And of course, one mustn't forget to examine the multitude of maiden special weight and allowances races that will undoubtedly be on the undercards. Enjoy the racing, everyone!
-Keelerman
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