Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II)
Six and One Half Furlongs on the Santa Anita Dirt Track
Here are the entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Made to Love Her | Rafael Bejarano |
| 2 | Reneesgotzip | Corey Nakatani |
| 3 | Rowdy Gal | Joel Rosario |
| 4 | Painted Woman | Mike Smith |
| 5 | Lady Hokulea | Joe Talamo |
| 6 | Candrea | Martin Garcia |
The heavy, heavy morning line favorite at even money is Reneesgotzip, a highly regarded daughter of City Zip trained by Peter Miller. The filly broke her maiden first time out in dominating fashion, taking a six furlong maiden special weight at Hollywood Park by 2 1/4 lengths in gate-to-wire fashion. What is espacially intriguing is that the runner-up that day, Eden's Moon, returned to break her own maiden by 11 1/2 lengths. Seeing that this race is only an eighth of a mile longer than her maiden race, distance should pose no trouble to Reneesgotzip. Perhaps the biggest obstacle she will face is the surface switch, going from Hollywood's Cushion Track to Santa Anita's dirt surface. But I don't see that being much of an issue.
The same question goes for the second choice, 5-2 Rowdy Gal. A daughter of Pure Prize, she is 2-for-2 so far with sharp wins in a maiden special weight and an allowance optional claiming event. She prefers to come from slightly off the pace, and possess a good stretch kick, but this will be her first start at a track other than Hollywood Park. She has trained very well since then, but even if she does take to the dirt, it's possible that she just isn't quite as quick as the favorite.
Candrea, third choice on the morning line at 3-1, has proven herself over dirt but now must prove that she hasn't gone off form. Her first three starts were very impressive, as she rattled off victories in a maiden special weight and the Phil D. Shepherd Stakes before finishing a strong second in the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I) going a mile and a sixteenth on the Santa Anita dirt. But in her last two starts, she has been beaten a combined 47 1/2 lengths, finishing eleventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) and ninth in the Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III). Who knows why she ran so badly in thos two starts, but it could be that she is simply better at sprinting and her good effort in the Oak Leaf was more of a fluke than anything else. If that is the case, then the return to 6-1/2 furlongs in today's event should be all she needs to rebound. She is trained by Bob Baffert, who is winning at a 29% clip at this meet, and will be ridden by Martin Garcia.
Made to Love Her, 6-1, lost her first four starts for trainer James Kasparoff, but the daughter of Stevie Wonderboy now has two straight victories coming into this race. After rallying in deep stretch to win going 5-1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita, she drew away powerfully in Hollywood's Moccasin Stakes to win by four lengths. She has breezed five times in preparation for this race and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, one of the leading riders in Southern California for years. Expect her to try and rally from off of the pace.
8-1 on the morning line is Painted Woman, a daughter of Forest Wildcat trained by Steven Asmussen. She broke her maiden by 5 3/4 lengths second time out going 4-1/2 furlongs in May, and after lengthy break, returned to win an allowance race at Woodbine going six furlongs in nearly gate-to-wire fashion. A step up to stakes company in the Glorious Song Stakes yielded a less-than-stellar fourth, although she was only beaten 3 1/2 lengths for second. All four of her starts to date have come over Polytrack, either at Keeneland or Woodbine, so she'll have to prove herself over dirt this time in this spot. While she does have talent, this spot may prove just a bit too tough for her, at least at this time. Then again, she will have Mike Smith in the saddle, and to me, that is always a major plus.
The longest shot in the field at 20-1 is Lady Hokulea -- which is just a little bit surprising seeing that she is trained by Bob Baffert. She broke her maiden in good fashion at Emerald Downs, losing the lead in the stretch after a speed duel but coming back on again to win by a neck. She then ran very poorly in the Moccasin Stakes, trailing home last of five behind fellow Santa Ynez contender Made to Love Her. However, it's fairly possible that this daughter of Roman Ruler simply didn't care for the synthetic track out at Hollywood, and that a return to dirt could be all she needs to rebound. On the other hand, this is perhaps an even tougher spot than the Moccasin, and she will probably need to step way up to handle her opponents in this spot. Joe Talamo has the mount.
J.R. and I shall both post our selections for this race, even though it is not part of our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest. Which is probably a good thing, because we both arrived at the same top pick!
Keelerman:
1 Reneesgotzip
2 Made to Love Her
3 Rowdy Gal
4 Candrea
5 Lady Hokulea
6 Painted Woman
J.R.:
1 Reneesgotzip
2 Candrea
3 Rowdy Gal
4 Made to Love Her
5 Painted Woman
6 Lady Hokulea
Other Races of Note
There are two other races on Sunday that I feel bear watching -- one especially so.
The first is a one-mile and seventy yards maiden special weight at Aqueduct over the inner dirt track, featuring a field of eight led by the heavy 6-5 morning line favorite Quorum. The son of Spellbinder has cracked the trifecta in every one of his four starts, but for one reason or another has failed to find the winner's circle. Last time out, he finished third, beaten seven lengths, in a one-mile maiden special weight over this same track. Trained by Sandino Hernandez, Jr., the colt will be ridden by the top rider Ramon Dominguez and figures to get a good trip.
None of the other horses sport as credentials as good as Quorom, but Quiet Man, Sporting Gent, and Two Seventeen could all have the potential to step up and turn in a good performance.
The other race -- and the one I feel could turn out some very good horses -- is a mile and a sixteenth allowance optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park. Twelve horses are entered, but there are two that I am especially looking foward to seeing: Cyber Secret and Atigun. They both ran in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last fall at Churchill Downs, finishing seventh and fifth, respectively. Neither has raced since then.
One of the reasons I am watching them with such interest is because a couple of the also-rans from the Kentucky Jockey Club have returned to run very well. Africanist, who finished sixth, came back to run a very strong second in a one mile and a sixteenth turf allowance race at Gulfstream Park. Mr. Prankster, who ran last of eleven, returned to win the Turfway Prevue Stakes at Turfway Park with a terrific late run. Should Cyber Secret and Atigun run well here tomorrow, it would not only further cement the fact that the Kentucky Jockey Club winner Gemologist beat a very good field with his victory, but also give us an idea of how Kentucky Jockey Club fourth place finisher Optimizer will fare on Monday in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones Stakes.
Getting back to the Oaklawn allowance race in question, you might also want to keep an eye of Mighty Monsoon, who has run third in four stakes races and figures to appreciate this slight drop in class.
That's it for today. Tomorrow's Triple Crown Countdown shall focus on the above-mentioned Smarty Jones on Monday, where the top filly On Fire Baby takes on Optimizer and a number of other promising colts in the one-mile, $100,000 event. Enjoy the racing, everyone!
-Keelerman
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