LeComte Stakes (gr. III)
One Mile and Seventy Yards on the Fair Grounds Dirt Track
Here are the entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Adena's Chance | Marlon St. Julien |
| 2 | Ted's Folly | Jose Medina |
| 3 | Mr. Bowling | Robby Albarado |
| 4 | Exfactor | Shaun Bridgmohan |
| 5 | Dan and Sheila | Todd Pletcher |
| 6 | Z Dager | Shane Sellers |
| 7 | Seven Lively Sins | Rosie Napravnik |
| 8 | Alexandra Thegreat | John Jacinto |
| 9 | Hammers Terror | James Graham |
| 10 | Hero of Order | Iram Diego |
| 11 | Chalybeate Springs | Brian Hernandez, Jr. |
| 12 | Capetown Devil | Corey Lanerie |
| 13 | Shared Property | Leandro Goncalves |
The morning line favorite is Shared Property, but the fact that he is listed at 4-1 says something about how wide open this race is. He is one of just two graded stakes winners in this field, and seeing that the other (Exfactor) is supposed to scratch, that would leave him with an apparent class edge over his rivals. Trained by Tom Amoss, the son of Scat Daddy took the Arlington-Washinton Futurity (gr. III) last September over the Arlington Polytrack before finishing sixth as the favorite in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). He has not raced since, but has been training steadily at Fair Grounds in preparation for this spot. He'll probably be coming from off the pace, but since he's breaking from gate thirteen and coming off of a several month layoff, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't hit the board today. But that's not to say he won't be a force down the road -- I think he will. It's just that he has a lot to overcome tomorrow and there are others here that could prove just as talented.
One of those colts is Seven Lively Sins. A son of Stormy Atlantic trained by Albert Stall, Jr., the colt broke his maiden second time out before running a strong second in the grade III Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs, beaten by just three-quarters of a length. He subsequently ran a distant fourth in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), but a lot of horses don't take to the six-furlong Delta oval as well as they do a one-mile racetrack -- in addition to the fact that Delta has a bit of an unusual dirt track that some horses just don't care for. So I'll be excusing Seven Lively Sin's poor effort there and hope that he'll rebound today.
Dan and Sheila, Z Dager, Hammers Terror, and Capetown Devil are all 6-1 on the morning line and look pretty evenly matched on paper. Dan and Sheila, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, broke his maiden in December going a mile at Gulfstream despite being hung wide all the way around. He beat some decent horses that day -- the third place finisher returned to finish a strong second against the highly regarded Ecabroni in another Gulfstream maiden race -- but Dan and Sheila did not earn a very big Beyer speed figure and will have to improve quite a bit to take this race. Nevertheless, John Velazquez is coming from Florida to ride him, which says something, and one should never ignore a Todd Pletcher juvenile at this time of year. Keep an eye on this one.
Z Dager could only manage a sixth-place finish in his first start, going three-quarters of a mile at Churchill Downs, but was beaten by some very nice horses including Wharton and Radiant Talent. His second start yielded a victory, but whether it was the sloppy track, the distance of a mile and seventy yards -- or both -- that did the trick remains unclear. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the son of Mizzen Mast probably has enough tactical speed to put himself in a good position early and should be right there turning for home if he's the kind of colt I think he is. It's worth noting that the horse Z Dager beat when breaking his maiden, Sir Bond, returned to run very, very well in a maiden special weight at Fair Grounds, finishing a close third behind Tetradrachm, who is currently pointing toward the Louisiana Derby. Hmm. . .
As for Hammers Terror, he has won two of his three starts, his only loss coming by a nose in his first race to a next-out stakes winner in Luke of York. Trained by Michael Stidham, the son of Artie Schiller broke his maiden going seven furlongs at Keeneland, then shipped to Fair Grounds and won a mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race by 2 3/4 lengths. He has been favored in every one of his starts and may end up being the favorite today. Jockey James Graham is winning at a 19% clip this Fair Grounds meet, and should be able to get this colt into the perfect early position right up near the lead.
Capetown Devil is undefeated in three starts for trainer David Carroll and just keeps improving. The son of Cape Town broke his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs at Keeneland, then took a one-mile starter allowance race by four lengths. Then it was on to Fair Grounds, where he charged from just off the pace despite a poor break to win a mile and seventy-yard allowance race by a neck in a good 1:43 4/5. Post twelve isn't the greatest spot to be, but if he doesn't get hung too wide around that first turn, Capetown Devil certainly has the ability to win this race and stamp himself as a major Derby contender.
Mr. Bowling and Ted's Folly are the next two we shall discuss. Mr. Bowling is a stakes winner, having taken Delaware Park's Dover Stakes by an impressive 7 1/4 lengths going a mile and seventy yards. That performance earned him the status of favorite in Churchill's Iroquois Stakes (gr. III), where he ran third behind Motor City and fellow LeComte starter Seven Lively Sins. This will be his first start since then, but he has been training just beautifully since then and the son of Istan may be something special. And of course, he is trained by Larry Jones, who is winning at a 24% clip this Fair Grounds meet.
As for Ted's Folly -- is he a superstar in the making, or a Reminton Park specialist? The son of Wild Tale, trained by Wilson Brown, ran poorly in his first two starts before breaking his maiden at Remington Park. Five additional Remington victories later -- including the Reminton Springboard Mile and two other stakes races -- Ted's Folly brings a six-race winning streak into the LeComte, but is 10-1 on the morning line. Perhaps that is a reflection of the fact that he has yet to win at a racetrack other than Remington, but in the Springboard Mile he defeated Reckless Jerry and Pee H Dee, with the first mentioned of the duo returning to be beaten a neck in the Smarty Jones Stakes despite a five-wide trip and the latter coming back to take an allowance race at Oaklawn in sharp fashion. So it's not like Ted's Folly has been beating up on inferior rivals or anything. The distance of today's race, coupled with the long Fair Grounds homestretch, should set this colt up for a big late run.
The remainder of the runners are all 20-1 or more and it would be a major upset if any of them one. Adena's Chance finished second to Hammers Terror when the latter won his allowance race (see above), but has since run fourth in the Sugar Bowl, last of twelve in an allowance optional claiming event going a mile and seventy yards, and third, beaten 7 1/2 lengths, in a simlar event going six furlongs. Alexander Thegreat lost his first nine races before taking a maiden special weight over a sloppy Fair Grounds strip by 1 3/4 lengths. Hero of Order lost his first eight races before winning last time out going six furlongs at Fair Grounds by five lengths. Chalybeate Springs lost his first seven starts -- although three of those came in graded stakes company -- before breaking his maiden by 1 1/4 lengths just one week ago at Oaklawn. But he did that by running a mile and a sixteenth in an incredibly slow 1:49 1/5 -- he'll have to step up a lot to be a threat here today.
Last of all, I shall mention Exfactor. As mentioned above, he is expected to scratch from this race, but in case he doesn't, I thought I'd briefly discuss his merits. He has won three of his four starts, defeating some fine horses such as Daddy Nose Best and Dullahan in the process. During the spring meet at Churchill Downs, he took the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) with a powerful late run, then returned from a long layoff at Fair Grounds in December to take the six-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes by a nose. If he runs, this will be his first start beyond six furlongs; a major test he must pass in order to continue along the Kentucky Derby trail. I'm hoping that he passes with flying colors, because I really like this colt and want to see him make the Derby.
So there is the field for the LeComte Stakes. It undoubtedly contains one of the largest fields we will see along the Triple Crown Trail, making the event an extremely difficult one to handicap. But here are the selections made by J.R. and I, assuming Exfactor doesn't run.
Keelerman:
1 Mr. Bowling
2 Seven Lively Sins
3 Capetown Devil
4 Dan and Sheila
J.R.
1 Z Dager
2 Hammers Terror
3 Seven Lively Sins
4 Ted's Folly
Other Races of Note
The fillies companion race to the LeComte, the Silverbulletday Stakes, carries a purse of $125,000 and is identical to the LeComte with the exception that it is restricted to fillies. A field of six has entered, led by the undefeated and highly promising Applauding. A brilliant 2-for-2 sprinting, she will be attempting to translate her fine one-turn form around two turns, and if she can do it, she will stamp herself as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I).
If Applauding doesn't show the same brilliance routing, then there are a couple of other fillies that I think could pull off an upset. Summer Applause won an allowance race here at Fair Grounds on the last day of December, powering away to win by seven lengths at the same distance of today's race. Believe You Can won three straight during the summer and fall, including the Tempted Stakes (gr. III), but finished sixth in the Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II), her first start beyond six furlongs. Trained by Larry Jones, I'm going to give her another chance to stretch out before labeling her as a sprinter.
At Gulfstream on Saturday, a field of eight three-year-olds will head to post in the Kitten's Joy Stakes going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf course. There are a number of intriguing contenders, including a pair of Graham Motion-trainees named Lucky Chappy and Howe Great. The former won a pair of races in Europe before shipping to the United States and finishing third in the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) and fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I). He was scheduled to compete in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), proving to us just how highly his connections think of him, but he did not run after coming down with a bit of a fever just before the race. He's bred top and bottom to be a turf horse -- that's probably why he's entered here -- but a win in this spot could set him up for a start in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) later this spring in an attempt to make the Kentucky Derby field.
As for Howe Great, he broke his maiden second time out at Parx before shipping to Gulfstream and taking a mile and a sixteenth turf allowance race in gate-to-wire fashion. He'll likely try to go to the front and set as slow a pace as possible before kicking on in the stretch and saying "Catch me if you can!"
Other major contenders are Italo, beaten only 2 3/4 lengths in the Dania Beach Stakes despite a rough trip, and Cozzetti, an impressive maiden winner at Belmont that subsequently finished eighth if the CashCall Futurity (gr. I).
The sixth race on the Saturday card at Gulfstream is worth watching simply because Thursby is running. The colt races for the same connections as 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and is, in fact, a half-brother to Animal Kingdom. However, Thursby has yet to emulate the success of his more esteemed sibling, having finished 10th and 12th in his two starts to date, beaten a combined total of nearly 40 lengths. The nine-furlong distance of this Gulfstream race is further than Thursby has ever run before, so perhaps that will help in turn in an improved effort.
There are two other notable races on the Gulfstream Saturday card as well. The seventh race on the card is a seven-furlong main track allowance optional claiming race, where the 5-2 morning line favorite is the Todd Pletcher-trainee Angel's Tune. Runner-up to Sabercat in the Garden City Stakes last September, he most recently finished second in a one-mile and a sixteenth allowance optional claiming event here at Gulfstream last month. There are a number of other interesting contenders here, including Tarpy's Goal -- who is coming off of just five days' rest -- but Angel's Tune looks like a winner to me.
The ninth race on the card is a six-furlong maiden special weight on the main track, featuring a field of nine. Two of those are Todd Pletcher first-time starters named Liberty Bound and Z Vilna. The latter is owned by Zayat Stables of Pioneerof the Nile and Nehro fame. I'll be watching them closely to see how they perform. Either one of them could make some noise in the coming months.
Out at Santa Anita, the sixth race on Saturday bears some serious watching. Three of the colts -- Candy's Jewel, Holy Candy, and Fleet Eagle -- have been on my watch list for a while now; the first-mentioned colt especially. Candy's Jewel has been competing against some very good horses, including Out of Bounds, So Brilliant, Sky Kingdom, Groovin' Solo, and Cloud Hopper. I really think this colt could be something major down the road.
I will discuss Sunday's racing action tomorrow, including the San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita, which features a number of promising young horses. Until then, enjoy the races, everyone!
-Keelerman
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