TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- January 28th, 2012

Today's Triple Crown Countdown post shall not be particularly long, for I shall be discussing only one race. Tomorrow's post shall cover the major Sunday racing action at Gulfstream Park, including the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) where the 2011 champion two-year-old colt Hansen will make his three-year-old debut. But for the moment, the star of the day is Killer Graces, winner of the Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I) last December and one of the leading contenders for the 2012 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I). She is the leader of a promising field set to run in the Santa Ysabel (gr. III) this afternoon at Santa Anita Park. Let's take a look at the entries!

Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III)
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Santa Anita Dirt Track

Entries:

PP	Horse	Jockey
1	Eden's Moon	(Scratched)
2	Batalha	Chantal Sutherland
3	Willa B Awesome	Martin Pedroza
4	Lady of Shamrock	Mike Smith
5	Killer Graces	Joe Talamo
6	Charm the Maker	Rafael Bejarano
7	Coup de Coer	(Scratched)

Killer Graces undoubtedly the most accomplished horse in the field, but somewhat surprisingly, she is not the morning line favorite. That honor goes to Charm the Maker.

The two fillies have a bit of a rivarly going, have raced eachother twice so far. The pair met for the first time at Hollywood Park going a mile and a sixteenth in the Sharp Cat Stakes, where Charm the Maker closed from just off the pace to win by 1 1/4 lengths over Killer Graces. They both came back in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I) -- an identical race to the Sharp Cat Stakes in every respect save name and purse. However, Charm the Maker found herself in just a tad of traffic around the far turn, allowing Killer Graces to sneak past her and secure a half-length victory at 14-1.

Who will prove victorious in today's race is anyone's guess, but it is worth noting that whereas the Sharp Cat and Hollywood Starlet were run over Hollywood's Cushion Track, the Santa Ysabel will be run over Santa Anita's dirt track, which could certainly affect the results. Both fillies have one start of experience over a traditional main track, with Charm the Maker finishing third in Santa Anita's Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I) and Killer Graces running second in Fresno's Soviet Problem Stakes.

Aside from the main two contenders, Lady of Shamrock figures to have a say in the outcome of this race. The daughter of Scat Daddy broke his maiden third time out and backed up that win with an impressive victory in the Blue Norther Stakes going a mile on the Santa Anita turf in 1:34.24, coming from some fifteen lengths back to win by 2 3/4. If she can translate her turf form to dirt, she could be a serious late-stretch threat.

Willa B Awesome and Batalha both have some experience against the major contenders in this race, with Willa B Awesome having finished third in the Sharp Cat Stakes and Batalha a good second in the Blue Norther, but they're going to have to step up their performances just a notch if they are to contend for the win in this spot.

Regardless, this appeares to be a wide-open race and I wouldn't be surprised if any of these fillies prove victorious. That said, here are my picks:

1 Charm the Maker
2 Willa B Awesome
3 Killer Graces
4 Lady of Shamrock
5 Batalha

-Keelerman