KEELERMAN'S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP TWENTY - January 12th, 2012

1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
Inherits the top spot following the highly disappointing performance by In the Beat -- last week's number one -- in a Gulfstream allowance race. He's breezed twice since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, most recently going a half-mile in :48 flat at Hollywood Park on January 6th. The Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) in February may come up a bit quick, but the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) in March could be a good goal.

2. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
He's scheduled to make his 2012 debut in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at the end of January, and has thus been breezing seriously in preparation for that goal. On January 7th, he went five furlongs in 1:00 2/5, signalling that he should be ready to make an impact in his first start of the year.

3. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He too is back on the worktab, having breezed three furlongs on January 11th. He is scheduled to prep for the Kentucky Derby in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) and Florida Derby (gr. I) at Gulfstream Park, where he will most likely meet up with Hansen once again. Time will tell how much ground this colt will want, but for the moment he certainly looks talented enough to win at a mile and a quarter.

4. Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
This promising colt breezed six furlongs in 1:13 2/5 on January 12th, and could make his 2012 debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II). In that spot, he will likely meet up once again with Liaison, the colt that beat him a half-length in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). I will be quite interested to see which colt comes on top.

5. Exfactor (Exchange Rate - Bright Magic, by Prized) Trained by Bernard Flint
Two-time stakes winner may run in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) on January 21st at Fair Grounds. If he does run, it will mark his first start beyond six furlongs in distance, which will help us determine whether he is best as a one-turn sprinter or a two-turn route horse.

6. Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat - Unbridled Elaine, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Eoin Harty
Won his stakes debut in terrific fashion over the previously undefeated Secret Circle in Santa Anita's Sham Stakes (gr. III), closing his final eighth in roughly :12 1/5 to win by a half-length. I find it fascinating that this colt has never raced on Lasix, which I feel could help him in the Triple Crown, should he continue to race without it.

7. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) Trained by Bob Baffert
CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner has been training beautifully for his 2012 debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), most recently breezing five furlongs in :59 1/5 on January 12th. Trained by Bob Baffert, this colt appears talented enough -- with good tactical speed and and a good stretch kick -- to take Baffert back to the Kentucky Derby and potentially back to the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May.

8. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He hasn't returned to the worktab since his Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) in late November, which means that we probably won't see him back to the races until March. Perhaps he will head to the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II), a route taken by the 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club winner Super Saver en route to his victory in the Kentucky Derby.

9. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
Seeing that he has already breezed twice since finishing fifth in the CashCall Futurity, I'm hoping that this promising colt makes his 2012 debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. I still have this feeling that he's something special, even though he has not hit the board in either of his two stakes attempts.

10. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
Trainer Dale Romans plans to run this colt in two races prior to the Kentucky Derby -- but not the usual Fountain of Youth/Florida Derby, San Felipe/Santa Anita Derby, or Gotham/Wood Memorial that many trainers use. Instead, he intends to race his star colt in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) on the Gulfstream turf course and then the Bluegrass Stakes (gr. I) on Keeneland's Polytrack. It's the same prep schedule Romans used with Paddy O'Prado in 2010, who went on to finish third in the Derby.

11. Algorithms (Bernardini - Ava Knowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Well-bred colt is 2-for-2 in his career, most recently winning a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming event at Gulfstream Park by a length over a very highly regarded colt in Consortium. The Holy Bull Stakes is scheduled to be his next start, and I can't wait to see how he performs against the likes of Hansen.

12. Sky Kingdom (Empire Maker - Sky Beam, by Kingmambo) Trained by Bob Baffert
Fourth-place finisher in the CashCall Futurity returned to take an allowance race earlier this afternoon at Santa Anita by 4 1/2 lengths under almost no urging at all. He was only facing three other horses, but he's now proven over dirt and looks like one of the more promising colts in Baffert's barn. I really like his pedigree.

13. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
I'm starting to wonder when and where we will see this colt return to action. He looked great winning the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) by four lengths, and breezed twice since then, but hasn't been on the work tab since earlier December. Hopefully there is nothing wrong with him.

14. Stephanoatsee (A.P. Indy - Oatsee, by Unbridled) Trained by Graham Motion
The recently pensioned stallion A.P. Indy has sired a Preakness winner and a Belmont winner, but the Kentucky Derby has eluded his progeny year after year. Perhaps Stephanoatsee can finally earn his sire the big race. Trained by Graham Motion, the colt looked like he was going nowhere fast in the homestretch of the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct, but suddenly leveled off and flew home inside the final sixteenth to grab second. I have a feeling that this colt is going to keep improving in leaps and bounds as the spring progresses.

15. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Runner-up to Union Rags in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) as a juvenile, this Darley-bred, Godolphin-owned colt subsequently ran eleventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but rebounded to take the Count Fleet Stakes in his 2012 debut by 2 1/2 dominating lengths. His pedigree screams stamina, which could make him especially dangerous in the Belmont Stakes, but the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby should be right up his alley too. I have debated whether putting him below Stephanoatsee -- whom he defeated in the Count Fleet -- is a good idea, but for the moment, I think the latter colt may simply have slightly more room for improvement.

16. Discreet Dancer (Discreet Cat - West Side Dancer, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Brought his career record to 2-for-2 -- and proved himself at a mile in the process -- when he defeated a talented bunch of runners in a recent Gulfstream allowance race. As I have mentioned in the past, I am a bit concerned about this colt's ability to stretch out to classic distances, but that allowance race was a huge step in the right direction and there's no ignoring the fact that this colt has talent.

17. On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken - Ornate, by Gilded Time) Trained by Gary Hartlage
I usually include one or two fillies in my top twenty, if not simply because of the recent success of Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Rags to Riches, and Havre de Grace's recent success against colts in some of the country's biggest races. And with Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) winner My Miss Aurelia dealing with minor issues that could cause her to miss the Kentucky Oaks -- let alone the Derby -- On Fire Baby is the filly I'll include. While she may not have the strongest pedigree for classic distances, she is 3-for-3 on dirt with victories in the Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II) and Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) on her resume. In addition, she is scheduled to face males on Monday in Oaklawn's $100,000 Smarty Jones Stakes. You can bet I'll be watching with interest!

18. Done Talking (Broken Vow - Dixie Talking, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Hamilton Smith
The Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last November was run in very unusual fashion for a main-track event, with a slow early pace and fast late fractions resembling those of a turf race. So I give Done Talking a lot of credit for making up five lengths inside the final eighth of a mile to finish fourth, beaten just a length. It is also worth noting that 3-1/2 lengths behind Done Talking that day was the above-discussed Stephanoatsee.

19. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Another colt emerging from the Remsen, El Padrino broke his maiden first time out by a brilliant 12 3/4 lengths, coasting home in a one-mile Belmont maiden race under hand urging. He subsequently finished third, beaten just three parts of a length, in the Remsen while staying a bit closer to the pace than the above-mentioned Done Talking. The only reason I am putting Done Talking above this colt is the fact that El Padrino didn't kick home quite as sharply despite as Done Talking despite the slow pace. But El Padrino may get a chance to move up on this list in the upcoming LeComte Stakes, which has been mentioned as possibly his next start.

20. Tetradrachm (Badge of Silver - Igraine, by Cherokee Run) Trained by Paul McGee
While he is bred to be a sprinter, he certainly didn't look like one when he broke his maiden going a mile and a sixteenth at Fair Grounds over a pair of promising-looking colts in Proper Empire and Sir Bond. The Louisiana Derby has been mentioned as a possible route to the Kentucky Derby for this intriguing young contender.

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Of course, there are many other talented horses out there that deserved to be mentioned, but for some reason or another are not included in my Top Twenty. As I am still in the process of compiling my usual, large list of "Other Notables", I thought that I would just briefly mention a few horses that did not quite make the Top Twenty cut.

Blingo - Put in a decent late run in the CashCall Futurity, although he never threatened for the win. Looking forward to seeing how he does on dirt.
Casual Trick - This colt is really my #21. Nick Zito-trainee ran a good second in the Gulfstream Park Derby and could return for the Holy Bull.
Consortium - Runner-up to Algorithms in a recent allowance race figure to improve with added distance.
Consulado - Recently broke his maiden by over seven lengths going 6-1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita. Looked really good doing it.
Ever So Lucky - Runner-up in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is dealing with minor issues, but should be back before too long.
In the Beat - He was my #1 a week ago, but his distant seventh-place finish against Discreet Dancer was highly disapointing. I hate to toss him out of the top #20 off of one bad effort, but I expected a much better effort than that.
Reveron - Gulfstream Park Derby winner showed a grit deal of grit with his narrow victory; hard to say how good he is but could be a force in the Florida prep races.
Take Charge Indy - Ran well in all of his three stakes attempts last year without winning any, but is back on the work tab and should be racing again shortly.
Tenacious Thomas - Beat Consulado in the latter's first start, so I suspect that this colt could be something good. Watch out for his next start.

-Keelerman