Monday, January 16, 2012

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN --January 16th, 2012

While a number of fascinating three-year-old races have been run over the last two days, to me, the best is still to come -- the best being the $100,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park later this afternoon.

The first in a series of four Kentucky Derby prep races held at Oaklawn Park each spring, the Smarty Jones Stakes was won last year by Caleb's Posse, who may be named Champion three-year-old male of 2011 later tonight at the Eclipse Awards ceremony. The 2012 edition has drawn a large field of eleven, and it should be a great race to watch. Let's take a look at who's running!

Smarty Jones Stakes
One Mile on the Oaklawn Dirt Track

Here are the entries:

PPHorseJockey
1Laurie's RocketBrian Hernandez
2JunebugredJoe Bravo
3Prince ChevalGreta Kuntzweiler
4No SpinChanning Hill
5FastestwhogetspaidBrian Williamson
6OptimizerTerry Thompson
7CopusJulio Felix
8Jake MoM. Clifton Berry
9Hard NosedRicardo Santana, Jr.
10On Fire BabyJoe Johnson
11King CoralGabriel Saez
12Reckless JerryShane Laviolette

The morning line favorite at 5-2 is the D. Wayne Lukas entry Optimzer, a very good juvenile that ran third in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) on Polytrack and second in the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) on turf. Further proving his versatility, he ran a strong fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) over the Churchill Downs dirt despite racing four- to five-wide throughout. What is especially interesting is that three of the horses that finished behind Optimizer in the Kentucky Jockey Club -- Atigun, Africanist, and Mr. Prankster -- have returned to run very well. As for Optimizer, he will probably get better with age and distance -- being a son of English Channel out of an A.P. Indy mare -- but he should have every chance to get his season off to a good start this afternoon in the Smarty Jones.

The second choice at 7-2 is -- somewhat surprisingly -- a filly. Named On Fire Baby, the daughter of Smoke Glacken is 3-for-3 on dirt, with impressive victories in the Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II) and the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) to her credit. Trained by Gary Hartlage, she has been training well for this race and figures to be on or near the lead early on. However, her running style could present an problem, seeing that she has to break from gate ten. Nevertheless, she's the most proven horse in the field and demands respect on that alone.

Junebugred, third choice at 5-1, is a son of Corinithian facing winners for the first time. Trained by David Fawkes, the colt finished third in his debut before taking a one-mile maiden special weight Aqueduct main dirt track by a length in a quick 1:36.72. If he has improved at all since then, he will be a serious contender here; if he has improved a lot, watch out.

6-1 on the morning line is No Spin, trained by the 2009 Belmont Stakes-winning trainer Tim Ice. While his biggest win to date came in the minor Glint Stakes, No Spin ran well in the Arlington-Washinton Futurity (gr. III) and the Remington Park Springboard Mile. While distance could potentially be a bit of an issue further down the line, I doubt that the one-mile distance of today's race will prove to be a problem.

Laurie's Rocket, 8-1 on the morning line, has had a bit of an up-and-down career thus far. Trained by Dallas Stewart, the colt well in his first two starts before being badly beaten in both the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) and the Champagne Stakes (gr. I). He then won an allowance race, finished fifth in the Delta Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), and rebounded to be beaten a nose in the Sugar Bowl Stakes. How well he will run today is open to debate, but I am of the opinion that he is superior in sprint events and that a mile may be too far for him in stakes company.

Jake Mo and Reckless Jerry are a pair of intriguing 10-1 shots. The former, a son of Giacamo, won the Prairie Gold Juvenile Stakes and finished fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, but most recently finished a disappointing sixth in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III). Reckless Jerry has hit the board in all five of his starts to date, his latest effort being a strong second in the Springboard Mile Stakes. Of the two, I think Reckless Jerry is going to run the best, but either one of them could step up and win this race.

As for the rest: Fastestwhogetspaid has won two straight, including a Hawthorne allowance race; Prince Cheval broke his maiden fifth time out before finishing fourth in the Jim Edger Illinois Futurity; King Coral has run well in two recent allowances races, including a second to Reckless Jerry, but has failed to crack the exacta in three stakes attempts; Copus broke his maiden last time out and faces winners for the first time; Hard Nosed broke his maiden at Suffolk but has been beaten a combined 56 3/4 lengths in his two starts since then.

My selections are:

1 On Fire Baby
2 Optimizer
3 Reckless Jerry
4 King Coral

J.R.'s picks are:

1 Optimizer
2 Reckless Jerry
3 On Fire Baby
4 Junebugred

Other Races of Note

* In the seventh race at Oaklawn, Remingtong Springboard Mile third-place finisher Pee H Dee returns for the first time since then in a one-mile allowance race. How well he runs could give us a bit of an idea on how well Reckless Jerry (see above) will run in the Smarty Jones Stakes -- seeing that Reckless Jerry finished ahead of Pee H Dee in the Springboard.

* The third race at Santa Anita Park is a one-mile turf maiden special weight featuring three horses that are on by Derby watch lists: Frenemy, Treacherous, and Cloud Hopper. All three have shown promise in their young careers, and I can't wait to see how they do.

* Clip the Coupons, a colt that broke his maiden at Saratoga but has dissapointed since, makes his 2012 debut in the seventh race at Gulfstream, a five-furlong turf allowance optional claiming event. Perhaps the surface and distance change will get this colt back in the winner's circle.

* The eighth race at Aqueduct is the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, a six-furlong inner dirt track event for three-year-olds. King and Crusader, trained by Rick Dutrow, is the favorite off of a win in an alowance optional claiming event three days ago. Deliburnsky, winner of two straight stakes races, and Yo Koffy, with two good efforts under his belt, pose the best chance at upsetting the favorite.

-Keelerman

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