Tuesday, May 01, 2012

KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- May 1st, 2012

Four days until the Derby . . .
ON THE WORK TAB

* The only Derby- or Oaks-related workout of the day was turned in by Rousing Sermon, who went five furlongs in 1:00 2/5. The workout was highly impressive, as Rousing Sermon started off at a fairly quick pace and finished up even stronger. The gallop out wasn't anything notable, but it didn't really need to be. Jose Lezcano rode the colt during the workout, and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer subsequently confirmed that Lezcano would have the mount in the Derby, ending the weeks of \mystery as to who would ride him.
OTHER DERBY NEWS AND TIDBITS

* Take Charge Indy, El Padrino, and Gemologist all arrived at Churchill Downs today from Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida. Daddy Long Legs is expected to arrive sometime tomorrow morning from Ballydoyle in Ireland.

* Trainer Larry Jones has officially confirmed that the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) runner-up Mark Valeski will not start in the Kentucky Derby, mainly because he doesn't feel the colt belongs in the race. The decision will allow Optimizer, who had been in the 21st position on the graded earnings list, to enter the Derby. Also, My Adonis -- who is for all practical purposes the new number 21 -- is shipping from Monmouth Park to Churchill Downs in case one more horse is to scratch.

* It has been announced that Hero of Order, the upset winner of the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) that is not nominated to the Kentucky Derby, will not be supplemented to the race. The possibility still exists that he could run in the Preakness, but he would have to be supplemented there as well.

* Even still, no one knows for sure who will ride Alpha in the Kentucky Derby. Rajiv Maragh remains under consideration, but the possibility now exists that Rosie Napravnik -- who was scheduled to ride Mark Valeski -- might pick up the mount.

* Speaking of Alpha, he arrived at Churchill Downs yesterday and visited the track for the first time this morning, galloping a mile and three-eighths in excellent fashion. He seems to be completed over his injury and could be set for a big race on Derby day.

* The second card of the Churchill Downs spring meet was held today, and Calvin Borel did very well, winning two races from four mounts. Migual Mena, Leandro Goncalves, and Julien Leparoux also won two races apiece, while John McKee and Gabriel Saez each claimed one. Julien Leparoux remains the leading rider of the young meet with six victories. If there was a track bias, it was for early speed, for eight of the nine main track races were won by horses racing within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead. The only race won by a horse coming from farther back was the seventh, where Knownforstone was able to rally from fifth after a very fast pace left the front-runners exhausted. Even still, the two pacesetters managed to finish second and fourth.
* While I don't believe that Trinniberg's presence in the Derby is going to lead to a ridiculously fast early pace, I do acknowledge that this year's Derby is loaded with front-runners/pace pressers and that the possibility does exist for a distructive pace to ensue.
For the record, the fastest opening quarter mile in Derby history was the :21 4/5 turned in by Top Avenger in 1981. The fastest half-mile (:44.86) was run by Songandaprayer in 2001, who also holds the record for the fastest opening three-quarters (1:09.25).

* With all the final workou's completed, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at last year's Derby field and the final workouts turned in by each contender. Here we go:

Animal Kingdom: 6f in 1:13 at Churchill Downs (Fast track)
Archarcharch: 4f in :52 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Brilliant Speed: 5f in 1:01 1/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Comma to the Top: 5f in 1:00 2/5 at Hollywood Park (Fast track)
Decisive Moment: 5f in 1:01 2/5 at Churchill Downs (Fast track)
Derby Kitten: 4f in :52 2/5 at the Churchill Downs Training Track (Fast track)
Dialed In: 4f in :48 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center (Fast track)
Master of Hounds: N/A (Trained at Ballydoyle in Ireland)
Midnight Interlude: 5f in 1:00 4/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Mucho Macho Man: 5f in 1:00 2/5 at Churchill Downs (Fast track)
Nehro: 4f in :51 1/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Pants on Fire: 4f in :47 4/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Santiva: 4f in :50 1/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Shackleford: 5f in :58 4/5 at Churchill Downs (Fast track)
Soldat: 5f in 1:01 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center (Fast track)
Stay Thirsty: 5f in 1:01 4/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Twice the Appeal: 6f in 1:15 3/5 at Churchill Downs (Fast track)
Twinspired: 5f in 1:01 1/5 at the Churchill Downs Training Track (Fast track)
Watch Me Go: 5f in 1:02 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)

I would say that, in general, this year's workouts have been more impressive than last year's. But then again, I would say that this year's Derby horses have been more impressive than last year's.

(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)

-Keelerman

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