Take Charge Indy, with Calvin Borel in the saddle, pulled off a stunning upset this afternoon in the $1,000,000 Florida Derby (gr. I), turning back bids from Reveron and heavy favorite Union Rags to win the race in gate-to-wire fashion.
A son of A.P. Indy, Take Charge Indy got off to an excellent start and raced away to set the early pace while being pressured by Reveron. Neck 'n Neck was racing in third toward the rail, with El Padrino and Union Rags -- the two favorites -- on his outside. Fort Loudon was next, followed by News Pending a Z Camelot.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
BELIEVE YOU CAN WINS THE FAIR GROUNDS OAKS!
Believe You Can rebounded from a poor fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) last month to win the $500,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) by a head.
Ridden to victory by Rosie Napravnik, Believe You Can got off to a good start and settled into the second position along the rail as the maiden Colonial Empress set a quick pace of :22.88 and :46.47 while leading by three-quarters of a length. Heavily favored Summer Applause, winner of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, was back in third, followed by Small Kitchen and Disposablepleasure.
Ridden to victory by Rosie Napravnik, Believe You Can got off to a good start and settled into the second position along the rail as the maiden Colonial Empress set a quick pace of :22.88 and :46.47 while leading by three-quarters of a length. Heavily favored Summer Applause, winner of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, was back in third, followed by Small Kitchen and Disposablepleasure.
KEELERMAN'S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP TWENTY - March 31st, 2012
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
Breezed six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 on March 28th, which may actually be his final workout prior to the Santa Anita Derby. With Bodemeister heading to the Arkansas Derby (see below), he should find the task of winning the Santa Anita Derby just a bit easier. Another good run -- win or lose -- should set him up well for the Derby.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He's drawn gate six in the Florida Derby (gr. I), which will be his final prep prior to the Kentucky Derby. Seeing that his Fountain of Youth victory was so easy, I would like to see him get a stiff challenge this afternoon -- a good stretch duel with El Padrino or Take Charge Indy would help get him dead fit for the Derby in five weeks.
3. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Defeating Union Rags is not going to be an easy task, but I have no doubts that Todd Pletcher has him ready to roll, and if 'Rags isn't quite at his peak, than El Padrino may just be up to pulling off the upset. But win or lose, so long as he doesn't regress from his Risen Star score, it should set him up well for the Kentucky Derby.
4. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
He'll be favored on Sunday in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), which will be his final prep for the Derby. The majority of his twelve opponents are unproven and lightly raced, but there are a few colts that could be step up and provide a good challenge to him. Nevertheless, I expect him to be even sharper tomorrow than he was in the Risen Star, and I won't be at all surprised if he wins by daylight.
5. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He hasn't breezed since his allowance victory on March 16th, which makes me wonder if he has encountered a minor setback -- what with the Wood Memorial coming up in just one week -- but there's still time to get a work in before his final Derby prep.
6. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
He missed a few days of training due to a splint injury, but he's still on track for the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Hopefully, he will be back on the work tab before too long.
7. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
Breezed five furlongs this morning in a quick :59 4/5 at the Churchill Downs Training track, a considering quicker move than the 1:01 1/5 that he turned in last week over that same track. It would appear that he is coming into the Blue Grass Stakes in excellent form, which he will need if he is to defeat the likes of Dullahan and Howe Great.
8. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Turned in yet another sharp seven-furlong breeze at Hollywood Park, going six furlongs in 1:26 flat on March 30th. I'm really not sure what to think of him heading into the Santa Anita Derby. If he is able to hold off Creative Cause, then he's obviously got a lot more talent then most people give him credit for, but would a tough race off of a two-month break leave him with anything in the tank for the Kentucky Derby?
9. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
It was confirmed that he will be sent to Arkansas Derby (gr. I) on April 14th, rather than take on Creative Cause again in the Santa Anita Derby. I think it's a very wise move, for he should find the competition in Arkansas just a bit easier, and he will get a chance to try out his speed over a track that isn't quite as speed -favoring as Santa Anita.
10. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Yesterday, he turned in his final breeze prior to next Saturday's Wood Memorial (gr. I), going a half-mile in :49.17 at Palm Meadows Training Center. It will be interesting to see whether he or Gemologist ends up as the favorite. Seeing that Alpha has already won a pair of Derby preps at Aqueduct this year, he should have a "home court advantage" over Gemologist, even though -- in actuality -- those two preps did come over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct, whereas the Wood will be over the main track.
11. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
A top-three finish in the Florida Derby should secure him enough graded earnings to make the Derby field, which is fortunate, because finishing ahead of either Union Rags or El Padrino is going to be a formidable task. Nevertheless, this colt seems to be improving, runs well fresh, and could have a decent shot at cracking the exacta at a price. So long as he's staying on strongly at the finish, I'm going to love his chances heading to Louisville.
12. Prospective (Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) Trained by Mark Casse
He's been at Churchill Downs training for a while now, and recorded his first breeze there on March 27th, going five furlongs in an easy 1:03 flat. It sounds like the Wood Memorial is going to be his next start, so it should be interesting to see how he stacks up against Gemologist and Alpha.
13. Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch) Trained by Steve Asmussen
I must admit, I had never really considered this colt to be a major Derby contender until he wore down Isn't He Perfect to win the Sunland Derby (gr. III) in game fashion. His :12 1/5 final eighth was terrific, as was his Beyer speed figure of 100. The fact that he was able to catch Isn't He Perfect -- who had opened up a large lead effortlessly in the stretch -- tells me that this colt could be a major, major contender on the first Saturday in May.
14. My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) Trained by Kelly Breen
Like Alpha, he turned in his final breeze for the Wood on March 30th, going a half-mile in a bullet :47.12 at Aqueduct. The fact that Hansen is skipping the Wood certainly helps this colt's chances, seeing that he was beaten three lengths by that one in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) last time out.
15. Optimizer (English Channel - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Optimizer
His first breeze since the Rebel was an easy half-mile in :49 flat; certainly not a bullet work, but an excellent breeze nevertheless. It should set him up well to continue improving as he prepares for the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), where the added distance should help him turn the tables on his Rebel conqueror Secret Circle.
16. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
His victory in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) was actually very similar to Animal Kingdom's last year, for Went the Day Well was able to finish strongly into a fast pace and give the impression of being a colt that will continue to improve. However, unlike Animal Kingdom, who went into the Derby off of his Vinery victory, Went the Day Well may start in the Lexington Stakes (gr. III) in between the two.
17 News Pending (Harlan's Holiday - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan) Trained by Dale Romans
Like Take Charge Indy, he's going to have to run well in the Florida Derby in order to pick up enough graded earnings. He's training very well, but it's hard to see him defeating Union Rags in this spot, seeing how decisively he was defeated by Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth last month. But so long as he puts in a good run and finishes in the top three, I wouldn't count him out on the first Saturday in May.
18 Holy Candy (Candy Ride - Spooky Minister, by Deputy Minister) Trained by John Sadler
He's being pointed toward a start in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on April 14th, where we should get a terrific idea of just how talented he is. After all, if he is able to hold his own -- or win -- against horses like Hansen, Howe Great, and Dullahan, then we'll know he's a good one.
19 Secret Circle (Eddington - Ragtime Hope, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Bob Baffert
He is obviously getting very, very good right now, for his first breeze since his Rebel victory was a bullet :58 2/5 five-furlong breeze at Santa Anita. He'll be returning to Arkansas once again on April 14th to compete in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), but he may not even go off as the favorite there -- his stablemate Bodemeister may take that honor.
20. Daddy Long Legs (Scat Daddy - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake) Trained by Aidan O'Brien
I threw this colt on at the last minute after he won the UAE Derby (UAE-II) in powerful fashion this morning (or night, depending on how you look at it!) I thought it was a very professional effort, for he tracked the early leader and finished up strongly to win the 1,900 meter event (about 1 3/16th miles) in 1:58.35. It has been confirmed that he will be pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, so that should add some international intrigue to the race.
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Cigar Street
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Exothermic
Golden Ticket
Heavy Breathing
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Motor City
Mr. Prankster
Najjaar
Paynter
Reckless Jerry
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Scatman
Shared Property
Stirred Up
Z Dager
-Keelerman
Breezed six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 on March 28th, which may actually be his final workout prior to the Santa Anita Derby. With Bodemeister heading to the Arkansas Derby (see below), he should find the task of winning the Santa Anita Derby just a bit easier. Another good run -- win or lose -- should set him up well for the Derby.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He's drawn gate six in the Florida Derby (gr. I), which will be his final prep prior to the Kentucky Derby. Seeing that his Fountain of Youth victory was so easy, I would like to see him get a stiff challenge this afternoon -- a good stretch duel with El Padrino or Take Charge Indy would help get him dead fit for the Derby in five weeks.
3. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Defeating Union Rags is not going to be an easy task, but I have no doubts that Todd Pletcher has him ready to roll, and if 'Rags isn't quite at his peak, than El Padrino may just be up to pulling off the upset. But win or lose, so long as he doesn't regress from his Risen Star score, it should set him up well for the Kentucky Derby.
4. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
He'll be favored on Sunday in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II), which will be his final prep for the Derby. The majority of his twelve opponents are unproven and lightly raced, but there are a few colts that could be step up and provide a good challenge to him. Nevertheless, I expect him to be even sharper tomorrow than he was in the Risen Star, and I won't be at all surprised if he wins by daylight.
5. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He hasn't breezed since his allowance victory on March 16th, which makes me wonder if he has encountered a minor setback -- what with the Wood Memorial coming up in just one week -- but there's still time to get a work in before his final Derby prep.
6. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
He missed a few days of training due to a splint injury, but he's still on track for the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Hopefully, he will be back on the work tab before too long.
7. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
Breezed five furlongs this morning in a quick :59 4/5 at the Churchill Downs Training track, a considering quicker move than the 1:01 1/5 that he turned in last week over that same track. It would appear that he is coming into the Blue Grass Stakes in excellent form, which he will need if he is to defeat the likes of Dullahan and Howe Great.
8. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Turned in yet another sharp seven-furlong breeze at Hollywood Park, going six furlongs in 1:26 flat on March 30th. I'm really not sure what to think of him heading into the Santa Anita Derby. If he is able to hold off Creative Cause, then he's obviously got a lot more talent then most people give him credit for, but would a tough race off of a two-month break leave him with anything in the tank for the Kentucky Derby?
9. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
It was confirmed that he will be sent to Arkansas Derby (gr. I) on April 14th, rather than take on Creative Cause again in the Santa Anita Derby. I think it's a very wise move, for he should find the competition in Arkansas just a bit easier, and he will get a chance to try out his speed over a track that isn't quite as speed -favoring as Santa Anita.
10. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Yesterday, he turned in his final breeze prior to next Saturday's Wood Memorial (gr. I), going a half-mile in :49.17 at Palm Meadows Training Center. It will be interesting to see whether he or Gemologist ends up as the favorite. Seeing that Alpha has already won a pair of Derby preps at Aqueduct this year, he should have a "home court advantage" over Gemologist, even though -- in actuality -- those two preps did come over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct, whereas the Wood will be over the main track.
11. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
A top-three finish in the Florida Derby should secure him enough graded earnings to make the Derby field, which is fortunate, because finishing ahead of either Union Rags or El Padrino is going to be a formidable task. Nevertheless, this colt seems to be improving, runs well fresh, and could have a decent shot at cracking the exacta at a price. So long as he's staying on strongly at the finish, I'm going to love his chances heading to Louisville.
12. Prospective (Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) Trained by Mark Casse
He's been at Churchill Downs training for a while now, and recorded his first breeze there on March 27th, going five furlongs in an easy 1:03 flat. It sounds like the Wood Memorial is going to be his next start, so it should be interesting to see how he stacks up against Gemologist and Alpha.
13. Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch) Trained by Steve Asmussen
I must admit, I had never really considered this colt to be a major Derby contender until he wore down Isn't He Perfect to win the Sunland Derby (gr. III) in game fashion. His :12 1/5 final eighth was terrific, as was his Beyer speed figure of 100. The fact that he was able to catch Isn't He Perfect -- who had opened up a large lead effortlessly in the stretch -- tells me that this colt could be a major, major contender on the first Saturday in May.
14. My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) Trained by Kelly Breen
Like Alpha, he turned in his final breeze for the Wood on March 30th, going a half-mile in a bullet :47.12 at Aqueduct. The fact that Hansen is skipping the Wood certainly helps this colt's chances, seeing that he was beaten three lengths by that one in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) last time out.
15. Optimizer (English Channel - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Optimizer
His first breeze since the Rebel was an easy half-mile in :49 flat; certainly not a bullet work, but an excellent breeze nevertheless. It should set him up well to continue improving as he prepares for the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), where the added distance should help him turn the tables on his Rebel conqueror Secret Circle.
16. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
His victory in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) was actually very similar to Animal Kingdom's last year, for Went the Day Well was able to finish strongly into a fast pace and give the impression of being a colt that will continue to improve. However, unlike Animal Kingdom, who went into the Derby off of his Vinery victory, Went the Day Well may start in the Lexington Stakes (gr. III) in between the two.
17 News Pending (Harlan's Holiday - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan) Trained by Dale Romans
Like Take Charge Indy, he's going to have to run well in the Florida Derby in order to pick up enough graded earnings. He's training very well, but it's hard to see him defeating Union Rags in this spot, seeing how decisively he was defeated by Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth last month. But so long as he puts in a good run and finishes in the top three, I wouldn't count him out on the first Saturday in May.
18 Holy Candy (Candy Ride - Spooky Minister, by Deputy Minister) Trained by John Sadler
He's being pointed toward a start in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on April 14th, where we should get a terrific idea of just how talented he is. After all, if he is able to hold his own -- or win -- against horses like Hansen, Howe Great, and Dullahan, then we'll know he's a good one.
19 Secret Circle (Eddington - Ragtime Hope, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Bob Baffert
He is obviously getting very, very good right now, for his first breeze since his Rebel victory was a bullet :58 2/5 five-furlong breeze at Santa Anita. He'll be returning to Arkansas once again on April 14th to compete in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), but he may not even go off as the favorite there -- his stablemate Bodemeister may take that honor.
20. Daddy Long Legs (Scat Daddy - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake) Trained by Aidan O'Brien
I threw this colt on at the last minute after he won the UAE Derby (UAE-II) in powerful fashion this morning (or night, depending on how you look at it!) I thought it was a very professional effort, for he tracked the early leader and finished up strongly to win the 1,900 meter event (about 1 3/16th miles) in 1:58.35. It has been confirmed that he will be pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, so that should add some international intrigue to the race.
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Cigar Street
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Exothermic
Golden Ticket
Heavy Breathing
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Motor City
Mr. Prankster
Najjaar
Paynter
Reckless Jerry
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Scatman
Shared Property
Stirred Up
Z Dager
-Keelerman
GRACE HALL WINS THE GULFSTREAM OAKS!
Grace Hall stamped herself as one of the favorites for the upcoming $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) when she drew off powerfully in the Gulfstream Park homestretch to win the nine-furlong Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II) by about six lengths.
Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, Grace Hall got off to a good start and settled into the third position early on as Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) winner Yara set a moderately quick pace of :23.74 and :47.19. The Cat's All That was right behind her in second. Hearts of Red was rating in fourth toward the inside, followed on the outside by Captivating Lass and Zo Impressive. And Why Not and Emma's Encore were the early trailers.
Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, Grace Hall got off to a good start and settled into the third position early on as Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) winner Yara set a moderately quick pace of :23.74 and :47.19. The Cat's All That was right behind her in second. Hearts of Red was rating in fourth toward the inside, followed on the outside by Captivating Lass and Zo Impressive. And Why Not and Emma's Encore were the early trailers.
WILLA B AWESOME WINS THE SANTA ANITA OAKS!
Willa B Awesome rebounded from a fourth-place finish in last month's Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) to take the $300,000 Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I) this afternoon at Santa Anita Park by a nose.
Ridden to victory by Martin Pedroza, Willa B Awesome settled into the third position early on as Reneesgotzip set a quick pace of :23.41 and :46.81 while being pressured by Eden's Moon. Bella's Fantasy and Conjure the Spirit were the early trailers.
Ridden to victory by Martin Pedroza, Willa B Awesome settled into the third position early on as Reneesgotzip set a quick pace of :23.41 and :46.81 while being pressured by Eden's Moon. Bella's Fantasy and Conjure the Spirit were the early trailers.
FORT LARNED WINS THE SKIP AWAY STAKES!
Fort Larned stamped himself as a colt to watch in the handicap division this year when he broke the Gulfstream Park track record for 1 3/16th miles in the $100,000 Skip Away Stakes (gr. III) this afternoon.
Ridden to victory by Julien Leparoux, Fort Larned settled into the second position early on as Uptowncharlybrown set a moderate pace of :23.93 and :47.45. Alma d'Oro was back in third, followed by Malibu Glow, Self Control, and Praetero. Race favorite Where's Sterling was next, racing toward the rear of the field while on the fence, with Numb Lips content to trail.
Ridden to victory by Julien Leparoux, Fort Larned settled into the second position early on as Uptowncharlybrown set a moderate pace of :23.93 and :47.45. Alma d'Oro was back in third, followed by Malibu Glow, Self Control, and Praetero. Race favorite Where's Sterling was next, racing toward the rear of the field while on the fence, with Numb Lips content to trail.
MONTEROSSO WINS THE DUBAI WORLD CUP!
Monterosso finished with a burst of speed in the Meydan homestretch to win the $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup by three lengths.
Ridden to victory by Mickael Barzolona, Monterosso settled not too off of the early pace set by Transcend, who ran the opening four hundred meters in :25.70 seconds and the first eight hundred in :49.90. So You Think, Royal Delta, and Capponi were also up close. Game On Dude broke poorly from gate fourteen and was far back early.
Ridden to victory by Mickael Barzolona, Monterosso settled not too off of the early pace set by Transcend, who ran the opening four hundred meters in :25.70 seconds and the first eight hundred in :49.90. So You Think, Royal Delta, and Capponi were also up close. Game On Dude broke poorly from gate fourteen and was far back early.
AWESOME MARIA WINS THE RAMPART STAKES!
Awesome Maria brought her winning streak to six consecutive races this afternoon when she romped to an easy victory in the $150,000 Rampart Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park.
Facing only five rivals, Awesome Maria got off to an excellent start under John Velazquez and settled into the second position early on as Canadian Mistress set a moderate pace of :24.10 and :47.61. Beloveda was tucked in third toward the inside, followed on the outside by Lacie Slew and Go Unbridled. My Pal Chrisy was the early trailer.
Facing only five rivals, Awesome Maria got off to an excellent start under John Velazquez and settled into the second position early on as Canadian Mistress set a moderate pace of :24.10 and :47.61. Beloveda was tucked in third toward the inside, followed on the outside by Lacie Slew and Go Unbridled. My Pal Chrisy was the early trailer.
DADDY LONG LEGS WINS THE UAE DERBY!
Daddy Long Legs took over from Helmet entering the Meydan homestretch and drew off powerfully from there to win the $2,000,000 UAE Derby (UAE-II) in highly impressive fashion, possibly stamping himself a ticket to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) in the process.
Ridden to victory by C. O'Donoghue, Daddy Long Legs settled into the second position early on, just off of pace-setting Helmet. Wrote, winner of the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I), was racing three wide in fourth early on, with Red Duke also up close. Mickdaam and Lucky Chappy were toward the rear of the field.
Ridden to victory by C. O'Donoghue, Daddy Long Legs settled into the second position early on, just off of pace-setting Helmet. Wrote, winner of the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I), was racing three wide in fourth early on, with Red Duke also up close. Mickdaam and Lucky Chappy were toward the rear of the field.
Friday, March 30, 2012
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 31st, 2012
If you thought last week's racing action was exciting, than you are going to be thrilled by what's going on this weekend. Not only are a pair of $1,000,000 Kentucky Derby prep races being run -- the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Louisiana Derby (gr. II) -- but a trio of Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) prep races are being run as well. Among the horses that will be competing are Union Rags, El Padrino, Mark Valeski, Take Charge Indy, News Pending, Cigar Street, Grace Hall, Eden's Moon, Reneesgotzip, and Summer Applause. Let's start handicapping!
Florida Derby (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the Gulfstream Park dirt track
Entries:
Obviously, all eyes are going to be on the Derby favorite Union Rags, who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) here at Gulfstream Park last month. Trained by Michael Matz, he was by no means fully cranked for a top effort that day, but nevertheless won by four lengths while never really asked for much run. He's drawn a perfect post position, and while this race is going to be considerably tougher than the Fountain of Youth, I honestly believe that he is capable of stepping up and turning in the best race of his life this afternoon, while still leaving plenty in the tank for Louisville. I also really liked his last workout, in which he breezed a half-mile in :49 flat while closing his final eighth in :11 1/5.
His main opposition will probably come from the Todd Pletcher-trained El Padrino, a highly promising son of Pulpit that has shown a great deal of talent during his young career. Last time out, he won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) in game fashion over another highly regarded youngster in Mark Valeski, who will be favored to win the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) on Sunday. Defeating Union Rags is not going to be an easy task, but he'll have the leading rider of the meet in the saddle, and Pletcher's been winning at an unbelievable 40% clip this winter at Gulfstream, so don't be surprised if he challenges Union Rags in the stretch. After all, his career-best effort from a Beyer speed figure standpoint came here at Gulfstream, so we know he's fond of the track.
Now, it would be quite a shock if one of the other horses in this race were to win, despite the fact that there are a number of other highly talented young runners in the race. Perhaps the best among them is Take Charge Indy, a son of A.P. Indy that finished second in an allowance race to El Padrino back on January 29th, earning by far the best Beyer speed figure of his career. He hasn't raced since then, but he has proven himself capable of running well fresh (the allowance race was his first start in nearly two months), so don't be surprised if he is right there in the homestretch. He's got enough early speed to be a pace contender, and he might just get the jump on Union Rags and El Padrino. If he does, he may just prove capable of holding them off.
Neck 'n Neck and News Pending should also receive some mild betting support as well. The latter colt stepped up and ran the race of his life last time out when he finished second to Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth. He turned in a highly unusual performance that day, breaking poorly and settling off the pace in the very earliest stages of the race before making a sweeping bid around the first turn to challenge pace-setting Discreet Dancer for the lead. Usually, a ride like this sees the horse in question tire late to finish off the board, but News Pending nevertheless held on strongly and wasn't really losing much ground to Union Rags at the finish. He seems to have turned into a new horse on dirt and could certainly be a contender in the stretch, although it is hard to picture him improving enough to defeat Union Rags.
As for Neck 'n Neck, he really hasn't gotten an opportunity to showcase what talent he may have, for twice now he has received awful trips in major races. Two starts back, in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), he came from off the pace, closed between horses, then went to the far outside to close some ground while seven wide. It was about as bad a trip as you can get without having to check or such, but he was still beaten just 2 3/4 lengths while finishing fifth. His most recent start came in the Fountain of Youth, where he was bumped at the start and had to steady sharply on the first turn. He never really got into the race after that, but did run well enough to finish fourth, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths for second. Like News Pending, Neck 'n Neck probably isn't good enough to take down Union Rags, but there's certainly no denying that he has the talent to finish in the trifecta if he gets a better trip.
Fort Loudon and Reveron also deserve some respect. The first-mentioned colt finished a non-threatening fifth last time out in the Fountain of Youth, beaten 11 1/4 lengths, but had previously finished a much stronger fourth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). That day, he was never a threat to runaway winner Algorithms, but did finish just 1 1/2 lengths behind 2011 juvenile champion Hansen, who returned to win the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) in his next start. A sloppy track wouldn't hurt his chances, but even on a fast track, he's proven consistent enough to warrant consideration for inclusion in trifectas and superfectas.
Reveron showed talent early this year when he defeated the well-regarded Casual Trick in the Gulfstream Park Derby here at Gulfstream Park, but his only start since then yielded a less-than-stellar third-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs. He can certainly step back up while returning to his favorite track, but it is worth noting that most of the horses he beat in the Gulfstream Park Derby have returned to perform poorly in their next starts, bringing into question the quality of the competition Reveron defeated.
This brings us to the two extreme longshots, Bartolome (30-1) and Z Camelot (50-1). Bartolome broke his maiden first-time out last September at Calder Race Course, winning an off-the-turf one-mile maiden special weight, but has lost his three subsequent starts while never threatening for the win. Z Camelot, from the barn of Dale Romans, is an intriguing runner. His best finish from four career starts has been a third-place effort in a nine-furlong turf race at Gulfstream last December -- in which he actually ran fourth, but was placed third via disqualification -- and is coming off of a fifth-place finish in a similar event on February 23rd. I really don't know why he was entered here, but perhaps Romans knows something that we don't. Perhaps he's better on dirt than on turf, although this wouldn't seem likely, seeing that this colt was beaten nearly sixteen lengths in his lone start on dirt. But despite all these facts, I can't help but think that this well-bred son of Smart Strike might outrun his odds.
My selections are:
1 Union Rags
2 El Padrino
3 Take Charge Indy
4 News Pending
J.R.'s selections are:
1 El Padrino
2 Union Rags
3 Neck 'n Neck
4 News Pending
Other Races of Note
At Gulfstream on Saturday . . .
Race 10: The $300,000 Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II), a major nine-furlong prep race for the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I), will feature an exciting rematch between Yara, Grace Hall, and Captivating Lass, the 1-2-3 finishers from last month's Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II). Of the trio, Grace Hall will most likely be favored, based on her fine juvenile form and the fact that her defeat in the Davona Dale can be attributed to the fact that it was her first start since early November. But Zo Impressive, who is undefeated in two starts, may just be talented enough to hand her more highly regarded rivals a defeat; stamping herself as a potential favorite for the Kentucky Oaks in the process.
At Fair Grounds on Saturday . . .
Race 10: Another major Kentucky Oaks prep race is scheduled to be run this Saturday at Fair Grounds, this being the $500,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II). This race has drawn only six runners, but it's a highly talented group, led by Rachel Alexandra Stakes' (gr. II) winner Summer Applause, who is fully expected to add another graded stakes triumph to her record. Believe You Can, who defeated Summer Applause in the Silverbulletday Stakes earlier this year at Fair Grounds, and Small Kitchen, who is a perfect 2-for-2 in her career, are also going to be major contenders. One filly who seems to be somewhat overlooked is Disposablepleasure, who won the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct last fall despite stumbling badly at the start. In her only start since then, she could only manage a fourth-place finish in the above-mentioned Davona Dale Stakes, but she should be much sharper this time around and could prove to be a major contender at a price.
At Santa Anita Park on Saturday . . .
Race 4: One more major Kentucky Oaks prep is going to be run on Saturday, this final one being the $300,000 Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I). A small field of five has turned out, but that includes Eden's Moon and Reneesgotzip, the 1-2 finishers from last month's Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) here at Santa Anita. Of the two, Eden's Moon is probably going to be favored, seeing that she was the winner of the Las Virgenes, but Reneesgotzip -- who blew the first turn in that race, drifting very, very wide -- could turn the tables if she is able to negotiate the turns better. Willa B Awesome, fourth behind those two in the Las Virgenes, probably has the best chance at upsetting them, but would really need to step up quite a bit in order to do that.
Race 10: This race really isn't going to affect the Triple Crown in anyway, but the 6-1/2 furlong Echo Eddie Stakes has drawn one of my new favorites horses in The Black, who has won two straight similar events, albiet against lesser company, with amazingly powerful stretch runs that must be seen to be believed. He will have to be at his best to defeat these talented colts, but I really think he is capable of doing it.
-Keelerman
Florida Derby (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the Gulfstream Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Fort Loudon | Luis Jurado |
| 2 | News Pending | Rajiv Maragh |
| 3 | Take Charge Indy | Calvin Borel |
| 4 | Neck 'n Neck | Edgar Prado |
| 5 | Z Camelot | Joe Bravo |
| 6 | Union Rags | Julien Leparoux |
| 7 | Bartolome | Jesus Castanon |
| 8 | El Padrino | Javier Castellano |
| 9 | Reveron | Elvis Trujillo |
Obviously, all eyes are going to be on the Derby favorite Union Rags, who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) here at Gulfstream Park last month. Trained by Michael Matz, he was by no means fully cranked for a top effort that day, but nevertheless won by four lengths while never really asked for much run. He's drawn a perfect post position, and while this race is going to be considerably tougher than the Fountain of Youth, I honestly believe that he is capable of stepping up and turning in the best race of his life this afternoon, while still leaving plenty in the tank for Louisville. I also really liked his last workout, in which he breezed a half-mile in :49 flat while closing his final eighth in :11 1/5.
His main opposition will probably come from the Todd Pletcher-trained El Padrino, a highly promising son of Pulpit that has shown a great deal of talent during his young career. Last time out, he won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) in game fashion over another highly regarded youngster in Mark Valeski, who will be favored to win the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) on Sunday. Defeating Union Rags is not going to be an easy task, but he'll have the leading rider of the meet in the saddle, and Pletcher's been winning at an unbelievable 40% clip this winter at Gulfstream, so don't be surprised if he challenges Union Rags in the stretch. After all, his career-best effort from a Beyer speed figure standpoint came here at Gulfstream, so we know he's fond of the track.
Now, it would be quite a shock if one of the other horses in this race were to win, despite the fact that there are a number of other highly talented young runners in the race. Perhaps the best among them is Take Charge Indy, a son of A.P. Indy that finished second in an allowance race to El Padrino back on January 29th, earning by far the best Beyer speed figure of his career. He hasn't raced since then, but he has proven himself capable of running well fresh (the allowance race was his first start in nearly two months), so don't be surprised if he is right there in the homestretch. He's got enough early speed to be a pace contender, and he might just get the jump on Union Rags and El Padrino. If he does, he may just prove capable of holding them off.
Neck 'n Neck and News Pending should also receive some mild betting support as well. The latter colt stepped up and ran the race of his life last time out when he finished second to Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth. He turned in a highly unusual performance that day, breaking poorly and settling off the pace in the very earliest stages of the race before making a sweeping bid around the first turn to challenge pace-setting Discreet Dancer for the lead. Usually, a ride like this sees the horse in question tire late to finish off the board, but News Pending nevertheless held on strongly and wasn't really losing much ground to Union Rags at the finish. He seems to have turned into a new horse on dirt and could certainly be a contender in the stretch, although it is hard to picture him improving enough to defeat Union Rags.
As for Neck 'n Neck, he really hasn't gotten an opportunity to showcase what talent he may have, for twice now he has received awful trips in major races. Two starts back, in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), he came from off the pace, closed between horses, then went to the far outside to close some ground while seven wide. It was about as bad a trip as you can get without having to check or such, but he was still beaten just 2 3/4 lengths while finishing fifth. His most recent start came in the Fountain of Youth, where he was bumped at the start and had to steady sharply on the first turn. He never really got into the race after that, but did run well enough to finish fourth, beaten just 2 3/4 lengths for second. Like News Pending, Neck 'n Neck probably isn't good enough to take down Union Rags, but there's certainly no denying that he has the talent to finish in the trifecta if he gets a better trip.
Fort Loudon and Reveron also deserve some respect. The first-mentioned colt finished a non-threatening fifth last time out in the Fountain of Youth, beaten 11 1/4 lengths, but had previously finished a much stronger fourth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). That day, he was never a threat to runaway winner Algorithms, but did finish just 1 1/2 lengths behind 2011 juvenile champion Hansen, who returned to win the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) in his next start. A sloppy track wouldn't hurt his chances, but even on a fast track, he's proven consistent enough to warrant consideration for inclusion in trifectas and superfectas.
Reveron showed talent early this year when he defeated the well-regarded Casual Trick in the Gulfstream Park Derby here at Gulfstream Park, but his only start since then yielded a less-than-stellar third-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs. He can certainly step back up while returning to his favorite track, but it is worth noting that most of the horses he beat in the Gulfstream Park Derby have returned to perform poorly in their next starts, bringing into question the quality of the competition Reveron defeated.
This brings us to the two extreme longshots, Bartolome (30-1) and Z Camelot (50-1). Bartolome broke his maiden first-time out last September at Calder Race Course, winning an off-the-turf one-mile maiden special weight, but has lost his three subsequent starts while never threatening for the win. Z Camelot, from the barn of Dale Romans, is an intriguing runner. His best finish from four career starts has been a third-place effort in a nine-furlong turf race at Gulfstream last December -- in which he actually ran fourth, but was placed third via disqualification -- and is coming off of a fifth-place finish in a similar event on February 23rd. I really don't know why he was entered here, but perhaps Romans knows something that we don't. Perhaps he's better on dirt than on turf, although this wouldn't seem likely, seeing that this colt was beaten nearly sixteen lengths in his lone start on dirt. But despite all these facts, I can't help but think that this well-bred son of Smart Strike might outrun his odds.
My selections are:
1 Union Rags
2 El Padrino
3 Take Charge Indy
4 News Pending
J.R.'s selections are:
1 El Padrino
2 Union Rags
3 Neck 'n Neck
4 News Pending
Other Races of Note
At Gulfstream on Saturday . . .
Race 10: The $300,000 Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II), a major nine-furlong prep race for the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I), will feature an exciting rematch between Yara, Grace Hall, and Captivating Lass, the 1-2-3 finishers from last month's Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II). Of the trio, Grace Hall will most likely be favored, based on her fine juvenile form and the fact that her defeat in the Davona Dale can be attributed to the fact that it was her first start since early November. But Zo Impressive, who is undefeated in two starts, may just be talented enough to hand her more highly regarded rivals a defeat; stamping herself as a potential favorite for the Kentucky Oaks in the process.
At Fair Grounds on Saturday . . .
Race 10: Another major Kentucky Oaks prep race is scheduled to be run this Saturday at Fair Grounds, this being the $500,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II). This race has drawn only six runners, but it's a highly talented group, led by Rachel Alexandra Stakes' (gr. II) winner Summer Applause, who is fully expected to add another graded stakes triumph to her record. Believe You Can, who defeated Summer Applause in the Silverbulletday Stakes earlier this year at Fair Grounds, and Small Kitchen, who is a perfect 2-for-2 in her career, are also going to be major contenders. One filly who seems to be somewhat overlooked is Disposablepleasure, who won the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct last fall despite stumbling badly at the start. In her only start since then, she could only manage a fourth-place finish in the above-mentioned Davona Dale Stakes, but she should be much sharper this time around and could prove to be a major contender at a price.
At Santa Anita Park on Saturday . . .
Race 4: One more major Kentucky Oaks prep is going to be run on Saturday, this final one being the $300,000 Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I). A small field of five has turned out, but that includes Eden's Moon and Reneesgotzip, the 1-2 finishers from last month's Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) here at Santa Anita. Of the two, Eden's Moon is probably going to be favored, seeing that she was the winner of the Las Virgenes, but Reneesgotzip -- who blew the first turn in that race, drifting very, very wide -- could turn the tables if she is able to negotiate the turns better. Willa B Awesome, fourth behind those two in the Las Virgenes, probably has the best chance at upsetting them, but would really need to step up quite a bit in order to do that.
Race 10: This race really isn't going to affect the Triple Crown in anyway, but the 6-1/2 furlong Echo Eddie Stakes has drawn one of my new favorites horses in The Black, who has won two straight similar events, albiet against lesser company, with amazingly powerful stretch runs that must be seen to be believed. He will have to be at his best to defeat these talented colts, but I really think he is capable of doing it.
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 30th, 2012
A pair of major Kentucky Derby prep races were run last weekend, and a pair of colts stamped themselves as colts to watch heading to Louisville. Here are my recaps of last week's major racing action, including the Sunland Derby (gr. III) and the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III). Enjoy!
Major Stakes Recaps
Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
During the coming weeks, we will undoubtedly be hearing a lot of comparisons between 2011 Vinery Spiral Stakes winner Animal Kingdom -- who went on to win the Kentucky Derby -- and the 2012 winner Went the Day Well, who races for the same connections and appears to be a similar type of runner.
First off, let me say that while Went the Day Well's final time may not have been anything particularly impressive, the fact that he was able to sit within two lengths of a :46.98-second half-mile was indeed worthy of note. And despite this, he still managed to come home his final eighth in :13.26 -- a tenth of a second faster than Animal Kingdom's final eighth of :13.36 in the 2011 Spiral.
But unlike Animal Kingdom, who went into the 2011 Derby off of no further prep races, it sounds like Went the Day Well may run in the Lexington Stakes (gr. II) two weeks before the Derby, in an effort to try and get him a bit more experience before sending him to Louisville. If he does run in the Lexington, Went the Day Well will likely face the horse he defeated in the Spiral, Holiday Promise, who actually ran very well himself and could potentially turn the tables under the right conditions.
Sunland Derby (gr. III)
It may have come as a bit of surprise, but Daddy Nose Best -- a colt that almost no one considered a Derby contender at the start of the year -- has now won two straight graded Derby prep races, including the Sunland Derby (gr. III) last Sunday at Sunland Park. The $800,000 race had drawn a very talented field, including Southwest Stakes (gr. III) winner Castaway and the highly promising maiden winner Ender Knievel.
However, when those two hooked up in a blazing speed duel, Daddy Nose Best took advantage of the situation and rallied for victory. But it wasn't as easy as one might think. Isn't He Clever, a perfect 2-for-2 over the Sunland strip, inherited the lead when the front-runners tired and moved effortlessly into the lead rounding the far turn. In the stretch, he held a commanding lead over the field and appeared to be on his way to an easy victory. But Daddy Nose Best was nevertheless able to get up in time, closing his final eighth in the vicinity of :12 1/5 to win by three-quarters of a length. For his effort, he earned one of the largest two-turn Beyer speed figures earned by a three-year-old this year, and has stamped himself as Steve Asmussen's biggest hopeful for the Kentucky Derby.
Sunland Park Oaks
Last year, owner Peachtree Stable, trainer Bob Baffert, and jockey Martin Garcia won the Sunland Park Oaks with Plum Pretty, who went on to win the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) six weeks later. It appears as though lightning may strike twice, for those same connections won the 2012 Sunland Park Oaks with another highly promising filly in Princess Arabella, who defeated her rivals by eight lengths to stamp herself as one of the Kentucky Oaks favorites.
There are many similarities between the two fillies. Both have shown excellent front-running speed, which they use to run their rivals off their feet early and coast away late. Plum Pretty definitely set a faster pace in her edition of the Sunland Park Oaks, running her opening half-mile in :46.83 compared to Princess Arabella's :47.24 -- but both closed their final five-sixteenths in the identical time of :31.95. Overall, I would say that Plum Pretty's victory was probably a slightly stronger effort than Princess Arabella's, but I do believe that Princess Arabella has the talent to give her connections a second straight win in the Kentucky Oaks.
Other Race Recaps
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/bourbon-courage-wins-fair-grounds.html
Two starts, two hugely impressive victories. That just about sums up Bourbon Courage's career to date. The Fair Grounds sensation has displayed both the ability to run fast early and turn back the closers and the ability to rate well off the pace and explode in the stretch. Obviously, he hasn't faced much competition of note yet, and he has never run beyond six furlongs, but he's being pointed toward the Derby Trial (gr. III) one week before the Kentucky Derby, and a victory in that race could potentially send him on his way to a start in the Preakness Stakes.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/flashy-dresser-wins-rushaway-stakes.html
Flashy Dresser may have earned himself a trip to the Preakness Stakes with his strong victory in Turfway's Rushaway Stakes, closing three-wide to win by a half-length over Gung Ho following a lengthy stretch duel. What was particularly impressive was that it was only his second career start, and Gung Ho is a proven stakes winner -- not the kind of colt that one catches easily. Both colts look ready to improve off of this race, and it will be interesting to see how they perform further down the road.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/chips-all-in-wins-pasadena-stakes.html
Chips All In is clearly a better horse on turf than on dirt. Following a terribly disappointing effort in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) over the Santa Anita main track, Chips All In rebounded sharply to take Santa Anita's Pasadena Stakes over the turf in game fashion, closing his final quarter mile in :22.90 to win by a neck over a good colt in Tones. It would appear as though Chips All In is going to be a major force in the biggest turf races for three-year-olds, especially at his seemingly favorite distance of one-mile.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/three-year-old-to-watch-holy-candy.html
There are not enough adjectives to describe how much I liked Holy Candy's performance in this race. That was a talented Bob Baffert-trained runner that he caught. A talented Bob Baffert-trained runner that had escaped with an unbelievably slow pace, considering the speed of the Santa Anita main track. It was impossible to imagine that Holy Candy could possibly catch the runaway leader, for he would have had to close his final quarter in something like :22 and change, but he was somehow able to do just that. His effort has earned him a start in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on April 14th, where he will get a chance to pick up enough graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field.
A couple of other notable performances were turned in last week by Right to Vote and Awesome Vision. The first-mentioned colt won a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in what was his first start since finishing third to Union Rags and Alpha in last year's Champagne Stakes (gr. I). Reserved just off of the early pace by jockey Alex Solis, Right to Vote moved up to take over the lead in the stretch and gamely withstood a late run from Scaramagna to win by a head in 1:16.80. He looks stakes-bound to me.
As for Awesome Vision, he looked pretty good himself winning a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct, catching a talented runner in Live for Today to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Don't let the small margin of victory deceive you. Live for Today finished, in turn, 10 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. And Awesome Vision's final quarter of :24.51 was certainly nothing to sneeze at. Like Right to Vote, don't be surprised if Awesome Vision's next start comes in stakes company -- perhaps in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) here at Aqueduct on April 21st.
-Keelerman
Major Stakes Recaps
Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
During the coming weeks, we will undoubtedly be hearing a lot of comparisons between 2011 Vinery Spiral Stakes winner Animal Kingdom -- who went on to win the Kentucky Derby -- and the 2012 winner Went the Day Well, who races for the same connections and appears to be a similar type of runner.
First off, let me say that while Went the Day Well's final time may not have been anything particularly impressive, the fact that he was able to sit within two lengths of a :46.98-second half-mile was indeed worthy of note. And despite this, he still managed to come home his final eighth in :13.26 -- a tenth of a second faster than Animal Kingdom's final eighth of :13.36 in the 2011 Spiral.
But unlike Animal Kingdom, who went into the 2011 Derby off of no further prep races, it sounds like Went the Day Well may run in the Lexington Stakes (gr. II) two weeks before the Derby, in an effort to try and get him a bit more experience before sending him to Louisville. If he does run in the Lexington, Went the Day Well will likely face the horse he defeated in the Spiral, Holiday Promise, who actually ran very well himself and could potentially turn the tables under the right conditions.
Sunland Derby (gr. III)
It may have come as a bit of surprise, but Daddy Nose Best -- a colt that almost no one considered a Derby contender at the start of the year -- has now won two straight graded Derby prep races, including the Sunland Derby (gr. III) last Sunday at Sunland Park. The $800,000 race had drawn a very talented field, including Southwest Stakes (gr. III) winner Castaway and the highly promising maiden winner Ender Knievel.
However, when those two hooked up in a blazing speed duel, Daddy Nose Best took advantage of the situation and rallied for victory. But it wasn't as easy as one might think. Isn't He Clever, a perfect 2-for-2 over the Sunland strip, inherited the lead when the front-runners tired and moved effortlessly into the lead rounding the far turn. In the stretch, he held a commanding lead over the field and appeared to be on his way to an easy victory. But Daddy Nose Best was nevertheless able to get up in time, closing his final eighth in the vicinity of :12 1/5 to win by three-quarters of a length. For his effort, he earned one of the largest two-turn Beyer speed figures earned by a three-year-old this year, and has stamped himself as Steve Asmussen's biggest hopeful for the Kentucky Derby.
Sunland Park Oaks
Last year, owner Peachtree Stable, trainer Bob Baffert, and jockey Martin Garcia won the Sunland Park Oaks with Plum Pretty, who went on to win the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) six weeks later. It appears as though lightning may strike twice, for those same connections won the 2012 Sunland Park Oaks with another highly promising filly in Princess Arabella, who defeated her rivals by eight lengths to stamp herself as one of the Kentucky Oaks favorites.
There are many similarities between the two fillies. Both have shown excellent front-running speed, which they use to run their rivals off their feet early and coast away late. Plum Pretty definitely set a faster pace in her edition of the Sunland Park Oaks, running her opening half-mile in :46.83 compared to Princess Arabella's :47.24 -- but both closed their final five-sixteenths in the identical time of :31.95. Overall, I would say that Plum Pretty's victory was probably a slightly stronger effort than Princess Arabella's, but I do believe that Princess Arabella has the talent to give her connections a second straight win in the Kentucky Oaks.
Other Race Recaps
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/bourbon-courage-wins-fair-grounds.html
Two starts, two hugely impressive victories. That just about sums up Bourbon Courage's career to date. The Fair Grounds sensation has displayed both the ability to run fast early and turn back the closers and the ability to rate well off the pace and explode in the stretch. Obviously, he hasn't faced much competition of note yet, and he has never run beyond six furlongs, but he's being pointed toward the Derby Trial (gr. III) one week before the Kentucky Derby, and a victory in that race could potentially send him on his way to a start in the Preakness Stakes.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/flashy-dresser-wins-rushaway-stakes.html
Flashy Dresser may have earned himself a trip to the Preakness Stakes with his strong victory in Turfway's Rushaway Stakes, closing three-wide to win by a half-length over Gung Ho following a lengthy stretch duel. What was particularly impressive was that it was only his second career start, and Gung Ho is a proven stakes winner -- not the kind of colt that one catches easily. Both colts look ready to improve off of this race, and it will be interesting to see how they perform further down the road.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/chips-all-in-wins-pasadena-stakes.html
Chips All In is clearly a better horse on turf than on dirt. Following a terribly disappointing effort in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) over the Santa Anita main track, Chips All In rebounded sharply to take Santa Anita's Pasadena Stakes over the turf in game fashion, closing his final quarter mile in :22.90 to win by a neck over a good colt in Tones. It would appear as though Chips All In is going to be a major force in the biggest turf races for three-year-olds, especially at his seemingly favorite distance of one-mile.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/three-year-old-to-watch-holy-candy.html
There are not enough adjectives to describe how much I liked Holy Candy's performance in this race. That was a talented Bob Baffert-trained runner that he caught. A talented Bob Baffert-trained runner that had escaped with an unbelievably slow pace, considering the speed of the Santa Anita main track. It was impossible to imagine that Holy Candy could possibly catch the runaway leader, for he would have had to close his final quarter in something like :22 and change, but he was somehow able to do just that. His effort has earned him a start in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on April 14th, where he will get a chance to pick up enough graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field.
A couple of other notable performances were turned in last week by Right to Vote and Awesome Vision. The first-mentioned colt won a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in what was his first start since finishing third to Union Rags and Alpha in last year's Champagne Stakes (gr. I). Reserved just off of the early pace by jockey Alex Solis, Right to Vote moved up to take over the lead in the stretch and gamely withstood a late run from Scaramagna to win by a head in 1:16.80. He looks stakes-bound to me.
As for Awesome Vision, he looked pretty good himself winning a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct, catching a talented runner in Live for Today to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Don't let the small margin of victory deceive you. Live for Today finished, in turn, 10 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. And Awesome Vision's final quarter of :24.51 was certainly nothing to sneeze at. Like Right to Vote, don't be surprised if Awesome Vision's next start comes in stakes company -- perhaps in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) here at Aqueduct on April 21st.
-Keelerman
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Gulfstream Park Oaks Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $300,000 Gulfstream Park Oaks (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The nine-furlong prep race for the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) has drawn a moderately sized but highly talented field of eight, led by grade I winner Grace Hall, Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) winner Yara, and the lightly raced but undefeated filly Zo Impressive.
1 Yara
2 Zo Impressive
3 Hearts of Red
1 Yara
2 Zo Impressive
3 Hearts of Red
Santa Anita Oaks Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $300,000 Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Santa Anita Park. One of the major prep races for the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I), this 1 1/16th miles race has drawn a small but talented field of five, including Eden's Moon and Reneesgotzip, he 1-2 to finishers from the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) here at Santa Anita last month.
1 Eden's Moon
2 Reneesgotzip
1 Eden's Moon
2 Reneesgotzip
Florida Derby Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $1,000,000 Florida Derby (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The nine-furlong prep race for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) has drawn a field of eight, led by Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) winner Union Rags, who is also the current Kentucky Derby favorite, and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) winner El Padrino. Another intriguing contender is Take Charge Indy, who will be ridden by three-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Calvin Borel.
1 Fort Loudon
2 News Pending
3 Take Charge Indy
1 Fort Loudon
2 News Pending
3 Take Charge Indy
Dubai World Cup Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the Dubai World Cup (UAE-I), to be held on Saturday at Meydan race course in Dubai. With a purse of $10 million, the ten-furlong event is the richest horse race in the world by a large margin. This year's edition has drawn a full field of fourteen, led by the international superstar So You Think, American hopefuls Game On Dude and Royal Delta, and last year's runner-up Transcend.
1 Master of Hounds
2 Eishin Flash
3 Zazou
1 Master of Hounds
2 Eishin Flash
3 Zazou
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Who will Calvin Borel ride in the 2012 Kentucky Derby?
Last year, in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby, I wrote a post entitled "Who will Calvin Borel ride in the 2011 Kentucky Derby?" Borel, undoubtedly the most famous jockey in the country when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, has won three of the last five runnings of the prestigious race, and his rail-skimming rides have become legendary.
If you will recall, there was quite a bit of mystery leading up to last year's Derby in regards to who the master jockey would ride, for after disappointing performances in the prep races by potential mounts such as Elite Alex, Borel found himself without a mount and diminishing opportunities to secure one.
Fortunately, his agent Jerry Hissam was able to get his star jockey aboard longshot Twice the Appeal, upset winner of the Sunland Derby (gr. III). But although it was nice to see Borel not get left out of the race which has made him famous, it was somewhat disappointing when Twice the Appeal ran a non-threatening tenth, despite Borel keeping his mount along the rail in customary fashion throughout most of the race.
Although the results were indeed not what many were hoping for, the anticipation and excitement generated by Borel's quest for a mount could be felt in the air as the Derby approached. News of how the Derby horses were training almost seemed to take a back seat to the goings-on regarding Calvin.
In fact, my above-mentioned post discussing who he might ride -- even though I was ultimately wrong -- became the most popular piece I have ever written for this blog. And even though this year's Derby is still more than five weeks away, I already sense that there may be some interest in who the master will be riding on the first Saturday in May. So without further ado, allow me to compile a list of Borel's possible Derby mounts . . .
****
Let me begin by creating a list of prominent Derby contenders that have been regularly ridden by a single jockey:
Hansen - Ramon Dominguez
Union Rags - Julien Leparoux (He has actually only been ridden by Leparoux once, but Leparoux will be aboard in the Florida Derby (gr. I) and, we assume, the Kentucky Derby as well)
Creative Cause - Joel Rosario
Daddy Nose Best - Julien Leparoux
Secret Circle - Rafael Bejarano
Dullahan - Kent Desormeaux
Prospective - Luis Contreras
El Padrino - Javier Castellano
Alpha - Ramon Dominguez
Rousing Sermon - Joseph Talamo
Castaway - Rafael Bejarano
My Adonis - Elvis Trujillo
Battle Hardened - Julien Leparoux
Brother Francis - Victor Espinoza
Mr. Bowling - Robby Albarado
Gemologist - Javier Castellano
Scatman - Luis Quinonez
Mark Valeski - Rosie Napravnik
Bodemeister - Rafael Bejarano
Obviously, it is possible that Borel could find himself aboard one of the above-mentioned colts in the Kentucky Derby. After all, as talented as Javier Castellano is, I doubt that he will be able to ride both Gemologist and El Padrino in the Kentucky Derby, especially if they fail to draw adjacent post positions. :)
Likewise, with Julien Leparoux almost undoubtedly going to ride Union Rags in the Derby, this would leave Daddy Nose Best without a rider. And lucky Rafael Bejarano will get to choose from three potential Derby horses.
But what if Calvin Borel doesn't secure one of those mounts? There are obviously other horses out there. Below is a list of additional Derby contenders and the jockeys that they have been ridden by recently:
Howe Great - John Velazquez, Edgar Prado
Sabercat - Corey Nakatani, Gerard Melancon, Angel Serpa, Channing Hill
Liaison - Rafael Bejarano, Martin Garcia
Went the Day Well - John Velazquez, Javier Castellano, Edgar Prado
Isn't He Clever - Luis Contreras, Alejandro Medellin, Corey Nakatani
Optimizer - Jon Court, Carlos Marquez, Jr., Terry Thompson, Robby Albarado
I'll Have Another - Mario Gutierrez, Julien Leparoux, Joel Rosario
Lucky Chappy - Alan Garcia, Javier Castellano, Joel Rosario, Ramon Dominguez
Longview Drive - Martin Garcia, Joel Rosario, Russell Baze
News Pending - Kent Desormeaux, Rajiv Maragh
However, the above list is a bit deceiving. Some of those horses have riders that will most definitely be aboard them in future starts. For example, News Pending was ridden by Kent Desormeaux when he ran second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), and by Rajiv Maragh previously. It has since been announced that Maragh will be back aboard for the upcoming Florida Derby (gr. I), lending to the belief that Maragh will ride the colt in the Kentucky Derby as well.
Aside from News Pending, it's fairly safe to say that Lucky Chappy (Alan Garcia), I'll Have Another (Mario Gutierrez), and Went the Day Well (John Velazquez) have all found themselves their Derby riders.
That would narrow the list down to these horses:
Howe Great - John Velazquez, Edgar Prado
Sabercat - Corey Nakatani, Gerard Melancon, Angel Serpa, Channing Hill
Liaison - Rafael Bejarano, Martin Garcia
Isn't He Clever - Luis Contreras, Alejandro Medellin, Corey Nakatani
Optimizer - Jon Court, Carlos Marquez, Jr., Terry Thompson, Robby Albarado
Longview Drive - Martin Garcia, Joel Rosario, Russell Baze
Obviously, if John Velazquez rides Went the Day Well in the Derby, this would leave the mount on Howe Great available -- which would, I assume, go to Edgar Prado, who rode the colt to victory in the Kitten's Joy Stakes earlier this year.
Who would ride Liaison in the Derby, should the colt get there, remains a mystery. Rafael Bejarano was the colt's regular rider, but jumped ship and rode Bodemeister against the colt in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II). Thus, Martin Garcia was aboard Liaison in the San Felipe. But Rafael Bejarano is already the regular rider for not only Bodemeister, but Secret Circle and Castaway as well. Assuming the rider were to stick with Bodemeister in Kentucky, this would leave Secret Circle, Castaway, and Liaison all without riders. Obviously, Martin Garcia could ride one of them, but that would still leave two jockey-less. Could Borel be hired?
As for Sabercat, there hasn't really been any rhyme or reason as to his riders. Gerard Melancon rode him to victory in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), but Corey Nakatani was aboard for his poor showing in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II). Assuming that Sabercat continues onward to the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), I would assume that Nakatani will retain the mount, seeing that he rode Nehro in the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby for Sabercat's trainer Steve Asmussen last year.
Isn't He Clever finished second in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) with Luis Contreras aboard, but Contreras is already the regular rider of Prospective. Alejandro Medellin rode him to a pair of victories in the Borderland Derby and Riley Allison Futurity, but has been passed up for bigger name riders each time the colt ran in a graded stakes race. Would this happen again if the colt is pointed to the Derby?
Optimizer's regular rider as a two-year-old was Robby Albarado, but this year, the colt has been ridden by three different jockeys. Jon Court, who rode the colt to a strong second-place finish in the Rebel Stakes, probably has the best chance at retaining the mount in the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby.
Longview Drive has been ridden by three different riders during his career, but Rosario already has a Derby mount in Creative Cause and Garcia will most likely be aboard something from Baffert's barn. This leaves Russell Baze as a potential rider for the colt, who will be competing in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) on April 7th.
But there is one colt that I have refrained from mentioning thus far. If you have been following the races closely, perhaps you have already guessed who this colt is.
The horse's named is Take Charge Indy. As a juvenile, he was ridden every time by jockey James Graham. However, when sent to Florida for the winter, Borel was able to secure the mount and rode the colt to a strong second-place finish in an allowance race behind subsequent Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) winner El Padrino. Take Charge Indy will be competing in the Florida Derby (gr. I) next Sunday, and will have Borel in the saddle. Should Take Charge Indy perform well -- finishing in the top three -- then all of lists and analysis above may be rendered completely useless. Take Charge Indy would be Borel's definite Derby horse.
****
In conclusion, it would appear as though Borel isn't going to have any trouble finding a Derby horse this year. Not only does he already have a potential good one lined up in Take Charge Indy, but there are plenty of other contenders that could be in need of a new rider for the Derby. Certainly Alpha is a possibility, seeing that his regular rider is also the regular rider of juvenile champion Hansen. And Gemologist or El Padrino are certainly possibilities, depending on which one Castellano chooses to ride in the Derby. After all, both of those colts are trained by Todd Pletcher, whose lone Derby win came when his colt Super Saver was ridden to victory by Borel himself.
Now, I shall take a moment to mention one other colt that Borel could potentially ride. This colt is Najjaar, who has been ridden by Calvin on several occasions in the past, including a 6th-place finish in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) earlier this month. The son of Jazil possesses an extremely powerful late run, which he used in the Southwest to close from 11 1/4 lengths behind at the eighth pole to be beaten just 4 3/4 lengths at the finish. The Arkansas Derby is scheduled to be his next start, and if the additional distance enables him to finish in the top two, Borel could actually find himself with multiple mounts from which to choose!
-Keelerman
If you will recall, there was quite a bit of mystery leading up to last year's Derby in regards to who the master jockey would ride, for after disappointing performances in the prep races by potential mounts such as Elite Alex, Borel found himself without a mount and diminishing opportunities to secure one.
Fortunately, his agent Jerry Hissam was able to get his star jockey aboard longshot Twice the Appeal, upset winner of the Sunland Derby (gr. III). But although it was nice to see Borel not get left out of the race which has made him famous, it was somewhat disappointing when Twice the Appeal ran a non-threatening tenth, despite Borel keeping his mount along the rail in customary fashion throughout most of the race.
Although the results were indeed not what many were hoping for, the anticipation and excitement generated by Borel's quest for a mount could be felt in the air as the Derby approached. News of how the Derby horses were training almost seemed to take a back seat to the goings-on regarding Calvin.
In fact, my above-mentioned post discussing who he might ride -- even though I was ultimately wrong -- became the most popular piece I have ever written for this blog. And even though this year's Derby is still more than five weeks away, I already sense that there may be some interest in who the master will be riding on the first Saturday in May. So without further ado, allow me to compile a list of Borel's possible Derby mounts . . .
****
Let me begin by creating a list of prominent Derby contenders that have been regularly ridden by a single jockey:
Hansen - Ramon Dominguez
Union Rags - Julien Leparoux (He has actually only been ridden by Leparoux once, but Leparoux will be aboard in the Florida Derby (gr. I) and, we assume, the Kentucky Derby as well)
Creative Cause - Joel Rosario
Daddy Nose Best - Julien Leparoux
Secret Circle - Rafael Bejarano
Dullahan - Kent Desormeaux
Prospective - Luis Contreras
El Padrino - Javier Castellano
Alpha - Ramon Dominguez
Rousing Sermon - Joseph Talamo
Castaway - Rafael Bejarano
My Adonis - Elvis Trujillo
Battle Hardened - Julien Leparoux
Brother Francis - Victor Espinoza
Mr. Bowling - Robby Albarado
Gemologist - Javier Castellano
Scatman - Luis Quinonez
Mark Valeski - Rosie Napravnik
Bodemeister - Rafael Bejarano
Obviously, it is possible that Borel could find himself aboard one of the above-mentioned colts in the Kentucky Derby. After all, as talented as Javier Castellano is, I doubt that he will be able to ride both Gemologist and El Padrino in the Kentucky Derby, especially if they fail to draw adjacent post positions. :)
Likewise, with Julien Leparoux almost undoubtedly going to ride Union Rags in the Derby, this would leave Daddy Nose Best without a rider. And lucky Rafael Bejarano will get to choose from three potential Derby horses.
But what if Calvin Borel doesn't secure one of those mounts? There are obviously other horses out there. Below is a list of additional Derby contenders and the jockeys that they have been ridden by recently:
Howe Great - John Velazquez, Edgar Prado
Sabercat - Corey Nakatani, Gerard Melancon, Angel Serpa, Channing Hill
Liaison - Rafael Bejarano, Martin Garcia
Went the Day Well - John Velazquez, Javier Castellano, Edgar Prado
Isn't He Clever - Luis Contreras, Alejandro Medellin, Corey Nakatani
Optimizer - Jon Court, Carlos Marquez, Jr., Terry Thompson, Robby Albarado
I'll Have Another - Mario Gutierrez, Julien Leparoux, Joel Rosario
Lucky Chappy - Alan Garcia, Javier Castellano, Joel Rosario, Ramon Dominguez
Longview Drive - Martin Garcia, Joel Rosario, Russell Baze
News Pending - Kent Desormeaux, Rajiv Maragh
However, the above list is a bit deceiving. Some of those horses have riders that will most definitely be aboard them in future starts. For example, News Pending was ridden by Kent Desormeaux when he ran second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), and by Rajiv Maragh previously. It has since been announced that Maragh will be back aboard for the upcoming Florida Derby (gr. I), lending to the belief that Maragh will ride the colt in the Kentucky Derby as well.
Aside from News Pending, it's fairly safe to say that Lucky Chappy (Alan Garcia), I'll Have Another (Mario Gutierrez), and Went the Day Well (John Velazquez) have all found themselves their Derby riders.
That would narrow the list down to these horses:
Howe Great - John Velazquez, Edgar Prado
Sabercat - Corey Nakatani, Gerard Melancon, Angel Serpa, Channing Hill
Liaison - Rafael Bejarano, Martin Garcia
Isn't He Clever - Luis Contreras, Alejandro Medellin, Corey Nakatani
Optimizer - Jon Court, Carlos Marquez, Jr., Terry Thompson, Robby Albarado
Longview Drive - Martin Garcia, Joel Rosario, Russell Baze
Obviously, if John Velazquez rides Went the Day Well in the Derby, this would leave the mount on Howe Great available -- which would, I assume, go to Edgar Prado, who rode the colt to victory in the Kitten's Joy Stakes earlier this year.
Who would ride Liaison in the Derby, should the colt get there, remains a mystery. Rafael Bejarano was the colt's regular rider, but jumped ship and rode Bodemeister against the colt in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II). Thus, Martin Garcia was aboard Liaison in the San Felipe. But Rafael Bejarano is already the regular rider for not only Bodemeister, but Secret Circle and Castaway as well. Assuming the rider were to stick with Bodemeister in Kentucky, this would leave Secret Circle, Castaway, and Liaison all without riders. Obviously, Martin Garcia could ride one of them, but that would still leave two jockey-less. Could Borel be hired?
As for Sabercat, there hasn't really been any rhyme or reason as to his riders. Gerard Melancon rode him to victory in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), but Corey Nakatani was aboard for his poor showing in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II). Assuming that Sabercat continues onward to the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), I would assume that Nakatani will retain the mount, seeing that he rode Nehro in the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby for Sabercat's trainer Steve Asmussen last year.
Isn't He Clever finished second in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) with Luis Contreras aboard, but Contreras is already the regular rider of Prospective. Alejandro Medellin rode him to a pair of victories in the Borderland Derby and Riley Allison Futurity, but has been passed up for bigger name riders each time the colt ran in a graded stakes race. Would this happen again if the colt is pointed to the Derby?
Optimizer's regular rider as a two-year-old was Robby Albarado, but this year, the colt has been ridden by three different jockeys. Jon Court, who rode the colt to a strong second-place finish in the Rebel Stakes, probably has the best chance at retaining the mount in the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby.
Longview Drive has been ridden by three different riders during his career, but Rosario already has a Derby mount in Creative Cause and Garcia will most likely be aboard something from Baffert's barn. This leaves Russell Baze as a potential rider for the colt, who will be competing in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) on April 7th.
But there is one colt that I have refrained from mentioning thus far. If you have been following the races closely, perhaps you have already guessed who this colt is.
The horse's named is Take Charge Indy. As a juvenile, he was ridden every time by jockey James Graham. However, when sent to Florida for the winter, Borel was able to secure the mount and rode the colt to a strong second-place finish in an allowance race behind subsequent Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) winner El Padrino. Take Charge Indy will be competing in the Florida Derby (gr. I) next Sunday, and will have Borel in the saddle. Should Take Charge Indy perform well -- finishing in the top three -- then all of lists and analysis above may be rendered completely useless. Take Charge Indy would be Borel's definite Derby horse.
****
In conclusion, it would appear as though Borel isn't going to have any trouble finding a Derby horse this year. Not only does he already have a potential good one lined up in Take Charge Indy, but there are plenty of other contenders that could be in need of a new rider for the Derby. Certainly Alpha is a possibility, seeing that his regular rider is also the regular rider of juvenile champion Hansen. And Gemologist or El Padrino are certainly possibilities, depending on which one Castellano chooses to ride in the Derby. After all, both of those colts are trained by Todd Pletcher, whose lone Derby win came when his colt Super Saver was ridden to victory by Borel himself.
Now, I shall take a moment to mention one other colt that Borel could potentially ride. This colt is Najjaar, who has been ridden by Calvin on several occasions in the past, including a 6th-place finish in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) earlier this month. The son of Jazil possesses an extremely powerful late run, which he used in the Southwest to close from 11 1/4 lengths behind at the eighth pole to be beaten just 4 3/4 lengths at the finish. The Arkansas Derby is scheduled to be his next start, and if the additional distance enables him to finish in the top two, Borel could actually find himself with multiple mounts from which to choose!
-Keelerman
Monday, March 26, 2012
KENTUCKY DERBY GRADED EARNINGS: WHO WILL MAKE THE CUT? Part I
With seven major Kentucky Derby prep races coming up over the course of the next three weekends -- the Florida Derby (gr. I), Louisiana Derby (gr. II), Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), Wood Memorial (gr. I), Illinois Derby (gr. III), Arkansas Derby (gr. I) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) -- it occurred to me that now would be an opportune time to take a close look at the current graded earnings list.
The graded earnings list is an important factor in determining which horses compete in the Kentucky Derby. As the Derby is limited to twenty starters, if more than twenty are entered, there must be a way to fairly exclude some of them. The system used to determine which horses get to run in the Derby is based entirely on the amount of graded earnings each horse has won. Graded earnings are, quite simply, the money won by a horse competing in a graded stakes race; that is, a race that has either grade I (gr. I), grade II (gr. II), or grade III (gr. III) status. A horse that has won $870,000 in graded earnings would obviously be given first preference for running in the Derby over a horse that has won just $127,000.
However, just how much graded cash a horse needs in order to make the Derby field varies greatly from year to year. In 2009, Nowhere to Hide was able to run in the Derby despite having earned just $57,500 in graded earnings. On the other end of the spectrum, it took all of Make Music for Me's $218,750 of graded cash to squeak into the 2010 Derby field.
In addition, horses seem to drop out of the Derby left and right in the final two weeks leading up to the race, whether to injury, sickness, or otherwise. So to be perfectly honest, it's impossible to say for sure which horses will comprise a given Derby field until after the entries are drawn.
But even though the Derby is still more than five weeks away, I thought it would prove useful to take a quick peek at the graded earnings list and see what some of the horses further down the list need to do in order to secure a spot in the Derby field. Following each round of major prep races, I shall post an updated graded earnings list with my thoughts on any newcomers that earned their way on with a big effort in a major prep race, as well as discussing some of the horses that are right out of the top and what they need to do to enter the top twenty.
So without further ado, here is a comprehensive graded earnings list that I have been carefulling compiling over the last several months:
1. Hansen $1,400,000
2. Union Rags $1,070,000
3. Creative Cause $686,000
4. Sabercat $601,429
5. Wrote $556,630
6. Daddy Nose Best $545,558
7. Secret Circle $470,000
8. Dullahan $405,000
9. Liaison $393,000
10. Prospective $365,452
11. On Fire Baby $286,729
12. Went the Day Well $282,000
13. El Padrino $200,000
14. Isn't He Clever $188,000
15. Optimizer $181,735
16. Alpha $180,000
17. Trinniberg $174,500
18. Rousing Sermon $170,000
19. Castaway $162,000
20. I'll Have Another $151,000
21. Currency Swap $150,000
22. Disposablepleasure $132,500
23. My Adonis $130,000
24. Battle Hardened $127,000
25. Brother Francis $120,000
26. Mr. Bowling $115,848
27. Lucky Chappy $115,000
28. Jack's in the Deck $105,000
29. Gemologist $103,855
30. Longview Drive $102,834
31. Scatman $100,000
32. Fly Lexis Fly $99,481
33. Take Charge Indy $98,400
34. Stirred Up $96,000
35. Daddy Long Legs $94,030
36. Holiday Promise $94,000*
37. Overdriven $90,000
37. State of Play $90,000
37. Howe Great $90,000
40. Jake Mo $85,000
41. News Pending $80,000
42. Shared Property $79,700
43. Motor City $78,383
44. Handsome Mike $73,500
45. Golden Ticket $70,000
46. Exfactor $67,748
47. Sky Kingdom $64,000
48. Power World $61,354
49. Mark Valeski $60,000
49. Bodemeister $60,000
(*Not nominated to the Kentucky Derby)
Now, this is a very complete list, containing many horses nominated to the Derby that may not actually compete, such as the fillies On Fire Baby and Disposablepleasure. In addition, there are colts, such as Wrote and Daddy Long Legs, that are not officially out of consideration for the Derby, but seeing that they are not even in this country, it's highly probable that they will be pointing toward major races in Europe rather than the Run for the Roses.
Other colts, such as Exfactor and Sky Kingdom, are also not officially out of Derby consideration, but have run poorly enough in major Derby prep races to suggest that their trainers will be pointing them to easier spots in the future. Still other colts, like Power World and Overdriven, have yet to make their first starts of 2012 and are obviously too far behind schedule to possibly make the Derby.
So here is a revised graded earnings list, with all such horses removed:
1. Hansen $1,400,000
2. Union Rags $1,070,000
3. Creative Cause $686,000
4. Sabercat $601,429
5. Daddy Nose Best $545,558
6. Secret Circle $470,000
7. Dullahan $405,000
8. Liaison $393,000
9. Prospective $365,452
10. Went the Day Well $282,000
11. El Padrino $200,000
12. Isn't He Clever $188,000
13. Optimizer $181,735
14. Alpha $180,000
15. Trinniberg $174,500
16. Rousing Sermon $170,000
17. Castaway $162,000
18. I'll Have Another $151,000
19. Currency Swap $150,000
20. My Adonis $130,000
21. Battle Hardened $127,000
22. Brother Francis $120,000
23. Mr. Bowling $115,848
24. Lucky Chappy $115,000
25. Gemologist $103,855
26. Longview Drive $102,834
27. Scatman $100,000
28. Take Charge Indy $98,400
29. Stirred Up $96,000
30. State of Play $90,000
30. Howe Great $90,000
32. Jake Mo $85,000
33. News Pending $80,000
34. Shared Property $79,700
35. Motor City $78,383
36. Handsome Mike $73,500
37. Golden Ticket $70,000
38. Mark Valeski $60,000
38. Bodemeister $60,000
Even still, some of the colts that I chose to leave on the revised list are not pointing for a run in the Derby. It's possible that Trinniberg, a proven sprinter, will continue running in sprint races, or perhaps target the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) -- the shortest of the three Triple Crown races. Then there's Castaway, who won a division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) to stamp himself as a Derby contender, but who subsequently ran seventh in the Sunland Park Derby (gr. III), beaten some twenty-five lengths. No one would blame the colt's connections if they decided to skip the Derby and find an easier race in which to get the colt back on track.
But for the moment, let's not worry about colts that might not run. Let's take a look at some of the major Derby contenders that will need to pick up some additional graded cash in order to make the Derby field.
First and foremost are Gemologist and Bodemeister, a pair of very well-regarded colts that are on practically everyone's leading Derby contender lists. However, they currently sit 25th and 38th, respectively, on the revised graded earnings list. Both will get a chance to add to their earnings over the next few weeks, with Gemologist scheduled to run in the $1,000,000 Wood Memorial (gr. I) and Bodemeister heading to either the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) or the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I). They wouldn't have to do much to pick up enough earnings -- for example, Gemologist would only need to finish fifth (earning $30,000 for a total of $133,855) to move into the top twenty.
But the tricky thing about this time of year is that the large number of high-purse prep races tend to throw things into confusion. Yes, Gemologist might only have to finish fifth in the Wood to move into today's top twenty. But today's top twenty and the top twenty of three weeks from now are going to look very different.
Suppose a pair of huge longshots run 1-2 in the Arkansas Derby, earning themselves $600,000 and $200,000 in the process. This would put them both past Gemologist, leaving him in in the 22nd position.
Then suppose that in a dramatic upset, News Pending defeats Union Rags in the upcoming Florida Derby. The $600,000 winner's share of that purse would rocket him to $680,000 in graded earnings, moving him into the fourth position on the list, while dropping Gemologist down even further.
Bodemeister is in the same boat, only more so, because he has even less graded earnings than Gemologist does. To guarantee himself a start in the Derby, he would have to finish first or second in a major Derby prep race. Third might do the trick, but it would be very, very close.
How about Stirred Up? His third-place finish in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) yesterday earned him $96,000 of graded dollars, but it's probably not going to be enough to make the Derby field. He would likely have to compete in one more Derby prep -- and pick up a decent check in the process -- in order to assure himself of a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Then there's Mark Valeski, who -- like Bodemeister -- will probably need a top-two finish in the upcoming Louisiana Derby (gr. II) to guarantee himself a berth in the Run for the Roses. But to do so, he will not only have to defeat Shared Property and Mr. Bowling -- who are also in need of additional graded earnings -- but a number of lightly raced runners with zero graded earnings. For them, the difference between second- and third-place money could mean the difference between making or failing to make the Derby field.
So keep a careful eye on the upcoming Derby prep races. There are a number of highly regarded colts out there that absolutely must perform well in their final prep races to earn their way into the Kentucky Derby. And you never know when a colt that practically no one has ever heard of will pull off a stunning upset in a major prep race . . .
-Keelerman
The graded earnings list is an important factor in determining which horses compete in the Kentucky Derby. As the Derby is limited to twenty starters, if more than twenty are entered, there must be a way to fairly exclude some of them. The system used to determine which horses get to run in the Derby is based entirely on the amount of graded earnings each horse has won. Graded earnings are, quite simply, the money won by a horse competing in a graded stakes race; that is, a race that has either grade I (gr. I), grade II (gr. II), or grade III (gr. III) status. A horse that has won $870,000 in graded earnings would obviously be given first preference for running in the Derby over a horse that has won just $127,000.
However, just how much graded cash a horse needs in order to make the Derby field varies greatly from year to year. In 2009, Nowhere to Hide was able to run in the Derby despite having earned just $57,500 in graded earnings. On the other end of the spectrum, it took all of Make Music for Me's $218,750 of graded cash to squeak into the 2010 Derby field.
In addition, horses seem to drop out of the Derby left and right in the final two weeks leading up to the race, whether to injury, sickness, or otherwise. So to be perfectly honest, it's impossible to say for sure which horses will comprise a given Derby field until after the entries are drawn.
But even though the Derby is still more than five weeks away, I thought it would prove useful to take a quick peek at the graded earnings list and see what some of the horses further down the list need to do in order to secure a spot in the Derby field. Following each round of major prep races, I shall post an updated graded earnings list with my thoughts on any newcomers that earned their way on with a big effort in a major prep race, as well as discussing some of the horses that are right out of the top and what they need to do to enter the top twenty.
So without further ado, here is a comprehensive graded earnings list that I have been carefulling compiling over the last several months:
1. Hansen $1,400,000
2. Union Rags $1,070,000
3. Creative Cause $686,000
4. Sabercat $601,429
5. Wrote $556,630
6. Daddy Nose Best $545,558
7. Secret Circle $470,000
8. Dullahan $405,000
9. Liaison $393,000
10. Prospective $365,452
11. On Fire Baby $286,729
12. Went the Day Well $282,000
13. El Padrino $200,000
14. Isn't He Clever $188,000
15. Optimizer $181,735
16. Alpha $180,000
17. Trinniberg $174,500
18. Rousing Sermon $170,000
19. Castaway $162,000
20. I'll Have Another $151,000
21. Currency Swap $150,000
22. Disposablepleasure $132,500
23. My Adonis $130,000
24. Battle Hardened $127,000
25. Brother Francis $120,000
26. Mr. Bowling $115,848
27. Lucky Chappy $115,000
28. Jack's in the Deck $105,000
29. Gemologist $103,855
30. Longview Drive $102,834
31. Scatman $100,000
32. Fly Lexis Fly $99,481
33. Take Charge Indy $98,400
34. Stirred Up $96,000
35. Daddy Long Legs $94,030
36. Holiday Promise $94,000*
37. Overdriven $90,000
37. State of Play $90,000
37. Howe Great $90,000
40. Jake Mo $85,000
41. News Pending $80,000
42. Shared Property $79,700
43. Motor City $78,383
44. Handsome Mike $73,500
45. Golden Ticket $70,000
46. Exfactor $67,748
47. Sky Kingdom $64,000
48. Power World $61,354
49. Mark Valeski $60,000
49. Bodemeister $60,000
(*Not nominated to the Kentucky Derby)
Now, this is a very complete list, containing many horses nominated to the Derby that may not actually compete, such as the fillies On Fire Baby and Disposablepleasure. In addition, there are colts, such as Wrote and Daddy Long Legs, that are not officially out of consideration for the Derby, but seeing that they are not even in this country, it's highly probable that they will be pointing toward major races in Europe rather than the Run for the Roses.
Other colts, such as Exfactor and Sky Kingdom, are also not officially out of Derby consideration, but have run poorly enough in major Derby prep races to suggest that their trainers will be pointing them to easier spots in the future. Still other colts, like Power World and Overdriven, have yet to make their first starts of 2012 and are obviously too far behind schedule to possibly make the Derby.
So here is a revised graded earnings list, with all such horses removed:
1. Hansen $1,400,000
2. Union Rags $1,070,000
3. Creative Cause $686,000
4. Sabercat $601,429
5. Daddy Nose Best $545,558
6. Secret Circle $470,000
7. Dullahan $405,000
8. Liaison $393,000
9. Prospective $365,452
10. Went the Day Well $282,000
11. El Padrino $200,000
12. Isn't He Clever $188,000
13. Optimizer $181,735
14. Alpha $180,000
15. Trinniberg $174,500
16. Rousing Sermon $170,000
17. Castaway $162,000
18. I'll Have Another $151,000
19. Currency Swap $150,000
20. My Adonis $130,000
21. Battle Hardened $127,000
22. Brother Francis $120,000
23. Mr. Bowling $115,848
24. Lucky Chappy $115,000
25. Gemologist $103,855
26. Longview Drive $102,834
27. Scatman $100,000
28. Take Charge Indy $98,400
29. Stirred Up $96,000
30. State of Play $90,000
30. Howe Great $90,000
32. Jake Mo $85,000
33. News Pending $80,000
34. Shared Property $79,700
35. Motor City $78,383
36. Handsome Mike $73,500
37. Golden Ticket $70,000
38. Mark Valeski $60,000
38. Bodemeister $60,000
Even still, some of the colts that I chose to leave on the revised list are not pointing for a run in the Derby. It's possible that Trinniberg, a proven sprinter, will continue running in sprint races, or perhaps target the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) -- the shortest of the three Triple Crown races. Then there's Castaway, who won a division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) to stamp himself as a Derby contender, but who subsequently ran seventh in the Sunland Park Derby (gr. III), beaten some twenty-five lengths. No one would blame the colt's connections if they decided to skip the Derby and find an easier race in which to get the colt back on track.
But for the moment, let's not worry about colts that might not run. Let's take a look at some of the major Derby contenders that will need to pick up some additional graded cash in order to make the Derby field.
First and foremost are Gemologist and Bodemeister, a pair of very well-regarded colts that are on practically everyone's leading Derby contender lists. However, they currently sit 25th and 38th, respectively, on the revised graded earnings list. Both will get a chance to add to their earnings over the next few weeks, with Gemologist scheduled to run in the $1,000,000 Wood Memorial (gr. I) and Bodemeister heading to either the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) or the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I). They wouldn't have to do much to pick up enough earnings -- for example, Gemologist would only need to finish fifth (earning $30,000 for a total of $133,855) to move into the top twenty.
But the tricky thing about this time of year is that the large number of high-purse prep races tend to throw things into confusion. Yes, Gemologist might only have to finish fifth in the Wood to move into today's top twenty. But today's top twenty and the top twenty of three weeks from now are going to look very different.
Suppose a pair of huge longshots run 1-2 in the Arkansas Derby, earning themselves $600,000 and $200,000 in the process. This would put them both past Gemologist, leaving him in in the 22nd position.
Then suppose that in a dramatic upset, News Pending defeats Union Rags in the upcoming Florida Derby. The $600,000 winner's share of that purse would rocket him to $680,000 in graded earnings, moving him into the fourth position on the list, while dropping Gemologist down even further.
Bodemeister is in the same boat, only more so, because he has even less graded earnings than Gemologist does. To guarantee himself a start in the Derby, he would have to finish first or second in a major Derby prep race. Third might do the trick, but it would be very, very close.
How about Stirred Up? His third-place finish in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) yesterday earned him $96,000 of graded dollars, but it's probably not going to be enough to make the Derby field. He would likely have to compete in one more Derby prep -- and pick up a decent check in the process -- in order to assure himself of a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Then there's Mark Valeski, who -- like Bodemeister -- will probably need a top-two finish in the upcoming Louisiana Derby (gr. II) to guarantee himself a berth in the Run for the Roses. But to do so, he will not only have to defeat Shared Property and Mr. Bowling -- who are also in need of additional graded earnings -- but a number of lightly raced runners with zero graded earnings. For them, the difference between second- and third-place money could mean the difference between making or failing to make the Derby field.
So keep a careful eye on the upcoming Derby prep races. There are a number of highly regarded colts out there that absolutely must perform well in their final prep races to earn their way into the Kentucky Derby. And you never know when a colt that practically no one has ever heard of will pull off a stunning upset in a major prep race . . .
-Keelerman
Louisiana Derby Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries for the $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby (gr. II), to be run on Sunday, April 1st, at Fair Grounds. The prestigious Kentucky Derby (gr. I) prep race had a major influence on the Derby last year, producing the second- and third-place finishers Nehro and Mucho Macho Man. This year's edition has drawn a full field of fourteen, led by Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Mark Valeski, CashCall Futurity (gr. I) runner-up Rousing Sermon, and the highly promising maiden winner Cigar Street.
1 Fire Alarm
2 Windsurfer
3 Finnegans Wake
1 Fire Alarm
2 Windsurfer
3 Finnegans Wake
Fair Grounds Oaks Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $500,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II), to be run on Saturday, March 31st, at Fair Grounds. The prestigious prep race for the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) has drawn a small but talented field of six, led by Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) winner Summer Applause, Silverbulletday Stakes winner Believe You Can, and the promising maiden winner Small Kitchen.
1 Believe You Can
2 Inny Minnie
3 Colonial Empress
1 Believe You Can
2 Inny Minnie
3 Colonial Empress
Sunday, March 25, 2012
DADDY NOSE BEST WINS THE SUNLAND DERBY!
Daddy Nose Best surged from off the pace to catch Isn't He Clever in deep stretch and win the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) by three-quarters of a length.
Ridden to victory by Julien Leparoux, Daddy Nose Best settled into mid-pack early on as Castaway and Ender Knievel hooked up in a duel for the lead that carried them well clear of the rest of the field while setting a challenging pace of :22.48 and :46.24. Isn't He Clever was rating in the third position, followed by No Spin and Stirred Up. Tequila Factor and Justanoldsong were the early trailers.
Ridden to victory by Julien Leparoux, Daddy Nose Best settled into mid-pack early on as Castaway and Ender Knievel hooked up in a duel for the lead that carried them well clear of the rest of the field while setting a challenging pace of :22.48 and :46.24. Isn't He Clever was rating in the third position, followed by No Spin and Stirred Up. Tequila Factor and Justanoldsong were the early trailers.
PRINCESS ARABELLA WINS THE SUNLAND PARK OAKS!
1-5 favorite Princess Arabella gave owner Peachtree Stable, trainer Bob Baffert, and jockey Martin Garcia their second straight win in Sunland Park's $200,000 Sunland Park Oaks, drawing away in the stretch to win under a mere hand ride by seven or eight lengths.
After an excellent start, Princess Arabella went straight to the lead and settled into stride while rattling off fractions of :23.68 and :47.24. Glinda the Good was tracking her in second, followed by longshot Sophisticated in third. Ize in Trouble, Regal Betty, and Take Me Away Today occupied the next positions, while the early trailer by a large margin was Feisty Flirt.
After an excellent start, Princess Arabella went straight to the lead and settled into stride while rattling off fractions of :23.68 and :47.24. Glinda the Good was tracking her in second, followed by longshot Sophisticated in third. Ize in Trouble, Regal Betty, and Take Me Away Today occupied the next positions, while the early trailer by a large margin was Feisty Flirt.
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 25th, 2012
One of the biggest and most exciting races of the Triple Crown season is scheduled to be run this afternoon at Sunland Park, that being the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III). Although the race is not very old (this is only its 10th running), the race has become famous in recent years for producing such colts as 2009 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winne Mine That Bird and 2011 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) winner Ruler On Ice. This year's edition has quite possibly drawn the best field of horses ever assembled for the race, including promising graded stakes winners Castaway and Daddy Nose Best, in addition to some up-and-coming maiden winners such as Stirred Up and Ender Knievel. Let's begin handicapping!
Sunland Derby (gr. III)
Nine furlongs on the Sunland Park dirt track
Entries:
The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Castaway, a highly promising runner from the barn of Bob Baffert. The son of Street Sense is coming off of an impressive victory in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), where the front-running colt broke from gate eleven and had to really run hard early to avoid getting hung wide on the first turn. Despite this, he still pulled away powerfully in the stretch to win by 3 3/4 lengths while giving the impression of wanting additional distance. Today, he will be breaking from gate one, which could mean trouble if he gets stuck in a pocket toward the rail, but I think that he's got enough speed to secure himself a good trip.
Daddy Nose Best and Isn't He Clever are also going to be well-bet. The first-mentioned colt is coming off of a career-best effort in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), which he won by a nose in a game effort. He turned in a strong final eighth of :12.37 that day, which was indeed highly impressive, but he hasn't raced on dirt since a pair of sprints at Churchill Downs back in June and July, where he ran second and seventh. If he takes to the dirt, he can be a threat, but I think that is a pretty big if.
Isn't He Clever is one of just three horses -- the other two being big longshots -- to have raced at Sunland Park before. Actually, this colt has won both of his starts here, taking the Riley Allison Futurity by 11 3/4 lengths last December and returning in February to win the Borderland Derby by 1 3/4 lengths in strong fashion. While he may be at his best going shorter than nine furlongs, Isn't He Clever is nevertheless a major threat for the win, and if he is able to set or track a slow enough pace, he'll be right there at the finish.
One horse that may end up going off at a shorter price than his morning line odds imply is Ender Knievel, a very promising young runner from the barn of Todd Pletcher. 6-1 on the morning line, the colt finished fifth in his first two starts before improving vastly in his third start, where he ran second to subsequent stakes winner Thunder Moccasin while clearly defeating a pair of next-out winners in Panthro and Stealcase. His fourth and most recent start at last yielded a victory, as the colt drew away to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park by 7 3/4 lengths. John Velazquez flies in to retain the mount, which certainly says something about this colt's talent, but this is a tough spot to face winners for the first time and he has yet to run a good race at a track other than Gulfstream Park. There are some questions, but there's also no denying that he has talent.
Stirred Up, from the barn of Baffert, doesn't have the same flashy credentials as his stablemate Castaway, but could nevertheless prove to be an intriguing contender at a price. He lost his first two starts, finishing second and then third, but broke through last time out to win a 1 1/16th miles maiden special weight at Santa Anita on March 3rd. What is interesting is the company that this colt has been keeping. In his first start, he lost to Zackn'mat, who returned to finish a strong second in the Borderland Derby. In his second start, he was defeated by Bodemeister, who returned to finish a terrific second to Creative Cause in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), stamping himself as a leading Kentucky Derby contender in the process. Most recently, Stirred Up defeated Holy Candy by a neck, a colt that returned to break his maiden on Friday in a really terrific performance. So I guess what I'm getting at is that this colt may not be as highly regarded as Castaway, but he has been facing arguably better competition.
No Spin -- from a Beyer speed figure standpoint -- would seem incapable of earning a figure higher than eighty, for he has yet to crack that number in eight starts. While he has run well enough in the past to suggest that hitting the board is definitely not out of the question, he was beaten 6 3/4 lengths by Castaway in the Southwest Stakes and has yet to win, or even hit the board, on dirt. It's hard to see him winning this race, but then again, whenever I start to think along those lines, I tend to think of Mine That Bird . . . :)
The two longshots are Tequila Factor and Justanoldsong. Tequila Factor is actually coming off of a very good victory in the one-mile Tempe Handicap at Turf Paradise, a race which he won by 5 3/4 lengths after tracking the early pace. However, that was on turf, and he has been beaten a combined 25 lengths in his two starts on dirt. In addition, it was also by far the best performance he has ever turned in, and it came just eight days ago. One must wonder if he is going to bounce, but I've always liked seeing horses come back quickly, and have seen them run very well in many cases.
Justanoldsong has made only two starts to date, winning his first race by a length going a mile here at Sunland before finishing a badly beaten sixth in the Borderland Derby behind Isn't He Clever. In my opinion, he didn't get a very good trip that day, and he is eligible to improve a lot this afternoon. However, whether or not he can improve enough to be a contender is the question.
My selections are:
1 Castaway
2 Isn't He Clever
3 Stirred Up
4 Daddy Nose Best
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Stirred Up
2 Castaway
3 Daddy Nose Best
4 No Spin
Other Races of Note
At Aqueduct on Sunday . . .
Race 3: This one-mile allowance optional claiming race has drawn a small but solid field of six, led by Awesome Vision and The Prize Fighter. Awesome Vision is coming off of an impressive victory in a one-mile maiden race here at Aqueduct, in which he surged past the leaders with a strong late run to win by 2 1/4 lengths. The Prize Fighter placed third in a pair of New York-bred stakes races last summer, and most recently finished fourth in a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park. Live for Today could also be a contender.
At Sunland Park on Sunday . . .
Race 11: The Sunland Park Oaks may not carry the prestige, or even the large purse, of the Sunland Derby, but it is nevertheless a respectable Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) prep and has drawn a solid field of seven. The morning line favorite at 9-5 is Glinda the Good, impressive winner of the Island Fashion Stakes here at Sunland last month. However, she may not end up being the post time favorite, as 2-1 morning line second choice Princess Arabella, from the barn of Bob Baffert, will undoubtedly by heavily bet. The undefeated daughter of Any Given Saturday has won both of her starts in impressive fashion, and although she will be trying a route race for the first time today, she has the speed to be a contender from the start and should prove very tough to catch. Ize in Trouble and Regal Betty should be right there to pick up the pieces if the top two falter.
-Keelerman
Sunland Derby (gr. III)
Nine furlongs on the Sunland Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Castaway | Rafael Bejarano |
| 2 | Ender Knievel | John Velazquez |
| 3 | Stirred Up | Martin Garcia |
| 4 | Isn't He Clever | Luis Contreras |
| 5 | No Spin | Channing Hill |
| 6 | Daddy Nose Best | Julien Leparoux |
| 7 | Tequila Factor | Miguel Hernandez |
| 8 | Justanoldsong | Ry Eikleberry |
The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Castaway, a highly promising runner from the barn of Bob Baffert. The son of Street Sense is coming off of an impressive victory in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), where the front-running colt broke from gate eleven and had to really run hard early to avoid getting hung wide on the first turn. Despite this, he still pulled away powerfully in the stretch to win by 3 3/4 lengths while giving the impression of wanting additional distance. Today, he will be breaking from gate one, which could mean trouble if he gets stuck in a pocket toward the rail, but I think that he's got enough speed to secure himself a good trip.
Daddy Nose Best and Isn't He Clever are also going to be well-bet. The first-mentioned colt is coming off of a career-best effort in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), which he won by a nose in a game effort. He turned in a strong final eighth of :12.37 that day, which was indeed highly impressive, but he hasn't raced on dirt since a pair of sprints at Churchill Downs back in June and July, where he ran second and seventh. If he takes to the dirt, he can be a threat, but I think that is a pretty big if.
Isn't He Clever is one of just three horses -- the other two being big longshots -- to have raced at Sunland Park before. Actually, this colt has won both of his starts here, taking the Riley Allison Futurity by 11 3/4 lengths last December and returning in February to win the Borderland Derby by 1 3/4 lengths in strong fashion. While he may be at his best going shorter than nine furlongs, Isn't He Clever is nevertheless a major threat for the win, and if he is able to set or track a slow enough pace, he'll be right there at the finish.
One horse that may end up going off at a shorter price than his morning line odds imply is Ender Knievel, a very promising young runner from the barn of Todd Pletcher. 6-1 on the morning line, the colt finished fifth in his first two starts before improving vastly in his third start, where he ran second to subsequent stakes winner Thunder Moccasin while clearly defeating a pair of next-out winners in Panthro and Stealcase. His fourth and most recent start at last yielded a victory, as the colt drew away to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park by 7 3/4 lengths. John Velazquez flies in to retain the mount, which certainly says something about this colt's talent, but this is a tough spot to face winners for the first time and he has yet to run a good race at a track other than Gulfstream Park. There are some questions, but there's also no denying that he has talent.
Stirred Up, from the barn of Baffert, doesn't have the same flashy credentials as his stablemate Castaway, but could nevertheless prove to be an intriguing contender at a price. He lost his first two starts, finishing second and then third, but broke through last time out to win a 1 1/16th miles maiden special weight at Santa Anita on March 3rd. What is interesting is the company that this colt has been keeping. In his first start, he lost to Zackn'mat, who returned to finish a strong second in the Borderland Derby. In his second start, he was defeated by Bodemeister, who returned to finish a terrific second to Creative Cause in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), stamping himself as a leading Kentucky Derby contender in the process. Most recently, Stirred Up defeated Holy Candy by a neck, a colt that returned to break his maiden on Friday in a really terrific performance. So I guess what I'm getting at is that this colt may not be as highly regarded as Castaway, but he has been facing arguably better competition.
No Spin -- from a Beyer speed figure standpoint -- would seem incapable of earning a figure higher than eighty, for he has yet to crack that number in eight starts. While he has run well enough in the past to suggest that hitting the board is definitely not out of the question, he was beaten 6 3/4 lengths by Castaway in the Southwest Stakes and has yet to win, or even hit the board, on dirt. It's hard to see him winning this race, but then again, whenever I start to think along those lines, I tend to think of Mine That Bird . . . :)
The two longshots are Tequila Factor and Justanoldsong. Tequila Factor is actually coming off of a very good victory in the one-mile Tempe Handicap at Turf Paradise, a race which he won by 5 3/4 lengths after tracking the early pace. However, that was on turf, and he has been beaten a combined 25 lengths in his two starts on dirt. In addition, it was also by far the best performance he has ever turned in, and it came just eight days ago. One must wonder if he is going to bounce, but I've always liked seeing horses come back quickly, and have seen them run very well in many cases.
Justanoldsong has made only two starts to date, winning his first race by a length going a mile here at Sunland before finishing a badly beaten sixth in the Borderland Derby behind Isn't He Clever. In my opinion, he didn't get a very good trip that day, and he is eligible to improve a lot this afternoon. However, whether or not he can improve enough to be a contender is the question.
My selections are:
1 Castaway
2 Isn't He Clever
3 Stirred Up
4 Daddy Nose Best
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Stirred Up
2 Castaway
3 Daddy Nose Best
4 No Spin
Other Races of Note
At Aqueduct on Sunday . . .
Race 3: This one-mile allowance optional claiming race has drawn a small but solid field of six, led by Awesome Vision and The Prize Fighter. Awesome Vision is coming off of an impressive victory in a one-mile maiden race here at Aqueduct, in which he surged past the leaders with a strong late run to win by 2 1/4 lengths. The Prize Fighter placed third in a pair of New York-bred stakes races last summer, and most recently finished fourth in a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park. Live for Today could also be a contender.
At Sunland Park on Sunday . . .
Race 11: The Sunland Park Oaks may not carry the prestige, or even the large purse, of the Sunland Derby, but it is nevertheless a respectable Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) prep and has drawn a solid field of seven. The morning line favorite at 9-5 is Glinda the Good, impressive winner of the Island Fashion Stakes here at Sunland last month. However, she may not end up being the post time favorite, as 2-1 morning line second choice Princess Arabella, from the barn of Bob Baffert, will undoubtedly by heavily bet. The undefeated daughter of Any Given Saturday has won both of her starts in impressive fashion, and although she will be trying a route race for the first time today, she has the speed to be a contender from the start and should prove very tough to catch. Ize in Trouble and Regal Betty should be right there to pick up the pieces if the top two falter.
-Keelerman
Saturday, March 24, 2012
KEELERMAN'S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP TWENTY - March 24th, 2012
(I'm just a bit late getting this posted, but better late than never! Enjoy!)
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He's already back on the work tab, breezing five furlongs in a sharp :59 4/5 just ten days after his victory in the San Felipe. It's obvious that this colt is doing really, really well right now, and he should be rough to beat in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) next month. He'll probably have one more breeze between now and then.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
Turned in his final workout for the Florida Derby (gr. I) this morning at Palm Meadows, going a half-mile in a moderate :49.10. It was an excellent final breeze that should set him up well for the race, without getting him too sharp too soon. After all, we don't want him peaking in the Florida Derby rather than the Kentucky Derby.
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He's already back on the work tab, breezing five furlongs in a sharp :59 4/5 just ten days after his victory in the San Felipe. It's obvious that this colt is doing really, really well right now, and he should be rough to beat in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) next month. He'll probably have one more breeze between now and then.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
Turned in his final workout for the Florida Derby (gr. I) this morning at Palm Meadows, going a half-mile in a moderate :49.10. It was an excellent final breeze that should set him up well for the race, without getting him too sharp too soon. After all, we don't want him peaking in the Florida Derby rather than the Kentucky Derby.
BOURBON COURAGE WINS A FAIR GROUNDS ALLOWANCE RACE!
The highly promising Bourbon Courage brought his record to a perfect 2-for-2 this afternoon at Fair Grounds when he rolled to an easy win in a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds.
Ridden to victory by C. J. McMahon, Bourbon Courage broke just a step slowly and settled into the fourth position early on, well off of a blazing pace of :21.73 set by Raiseanothergator. Bucktown was tracking him in second, followed by Masculino in third. Macho Macho and Sky Blue Mongolia were the early trailers.
Moving around the turn, Bourbon Courage made a huge run to roar past the leaders, entering the homestretch in front following a half-mile in :45.48. From there, he drew away powerfully to score by about five lengths in the sharp time of 1:09.42.
Macho Macho rallied for second, followed by Raiseanothergator, Masculino, Sky Blue Mongolia, and Bucktown. The winner is a son of Lion Heart out of Shine Forth and is trained by Kellyn Gorder.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by C. J. McMahon, Bourbon Courage broke just a step slowly and settled into the fourth position early on, well off of a blazing pace of :21.73 set by Raiseanothergator. Bucktown was tracking him in second, followed by Masculino in third. Macho Macho and Sky Blue Mongolia were the early trailers.
Moving around the turn, Bourbon Courage made a huge run to roar past the leaders, entering the homestretch in front following a half-mile in :45.48. From there, he drew away powerfully to score by about five lengths in the sharp time of 1:09.42.
Macho Macho rallied for second, followed by Raiseanothergator, Masculino, Sky Blue Mongolia, and Bucktown. The winner is a son of Lion Heart out of Shine Forth and is trained by Kellyn Gorder.
-Keelerman
WENT THE DAY WELL WINS THE VINERY SPIRAL STAKES!
Went the Day Well gave trainer Graham Motion and Team Valor International their second straight win in the $500,000 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III), turning back a bid from Holiday Promise to win the race by three and a half lengths.
Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, the son of Proud Citizen got off to a good beginning and settled into the fourth position early on as favored Heavy Breathing sat a challenging pace of :23.10 and :46.98 while being pressured by Ill Conceived. Coach Royal, Tizanexpense, and Red Jack were also close to the pace, while Handsome Mike -- who was expected to be on or near the lead -- was the early trailer.
Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, the son of Proud Citizen got off to a good beginning and settled into the fourth position early on as favored Heavy Breathing sat a challenging pace of :23.10 and :46.98 while being pressured by Ill Conceived. Coach Royal, Tizanexpense, and Red Jack were also close to the pace, while Handsome Mike -- who was expected to be on or near the lead -- was the early trailer.
FLASHY DRESSER WINS THE RUSHAWAY STAKES!
9-5 favorite Flashy Dresser wore down Gung Ho in the Turfway Park homestretch to win the $75,000 Rushaway Stakes by a head.
Ridden to victory by Luis Contreras, Flashy Dresser settled into third early on as Dynamical set a slow pace of :24.93 and :49.89 while Gung Ho -- who had stumbled at the start -- tracked him in second. Gold Megillah was rating off the pace in fourth, followed by Going to Market and Sky Alert. Posey Rose and Bluedacious were the early trailers.
Ridden to victory by Luis Contreras, Flashy Dresser settled into third early on as Dynamical set a slow pace of :24.93 and :49.89 while Gung Ho -- who had stumbled at the start -- tracked him in second. Gold Megillah was rating off the pace in fourth, followed by Going to Market and Sky Alert. Posey Rose and Bluedacious were the early trailers.
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 24th, 2012
It's hard to believe that the Kentucky Derby is only six weeks away -- and it's almost as hard to believe that the first of the final Derby prep races are being run this weekend. Today's post shall cover Saturday's major racing action, including Turfway's Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III), which was won last year by Animal Kingdom en route to his victory in the Kentucky Derby. Tomorrow, I shall discuss Sunday's racing, including the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park. Enjoy!
Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
Nine Furlongs on the Turfway Park synthetic track
The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Heavy Breathing, an up-and-coming young runner from the barn of Todd Pletcher. The son of Giant's Causeway is undefeated in two starts, having broken his maiden impressively at Gulfstream before winning a nine-furlong allowance race, also at Gulfstream. The talent is clearly there, and he will be retaining the services of top jockey Javier Castellano, but this will be his first start over a synthetic track and one must wonder how well he will take to it.
If Heavy Breathing doesn't care for the track, then Went the Day Well and Handsome Mike should be right there at the finish. The first-mentioned colt, owned by Team Valor International, began his career in Europe, where he finished second in a pair of maiden races. He was then purchased by Team Valor and brought to the United States, where he finished fourth in his first start here before breaking his maiden last time out in excellent fashion going a mile and a sixteenth at Gulfstream Park. With John Velazquez in the saddle, expect this colt to get a great trip while coming from mid-pack.
As for Handsome Mike, he has been facing some of the best colts that California has to offer, finishing seventh (beaten just 2 3/4 lengths) in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), fourth in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), and third in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). It would appear as though he just isn't good enough to defeat the best colts in California, but he should find this field more suited to his ability; in fact, his Beyer speed figures pretty much tower over those of his rivals in this spot. I love the fact that Joel Rosario will be flying here from California to ride this colt. To me, that says something about this horse's ability.
Ill Conceived and Mr. Prankster, the second- and fourth-place finishers, respectively, in last month's John Battaglia Memorial Stakes here at Turfway, should also be major contenders. Ill Conceived set the pace that day before losing the lead to a quality colt in State of Play, but was actually closing the gap again at the finish and might have won if the race had been slightly longer. On the other hand, he was allowed to set a very, very slow pace that day of :49.83 and 1:14.71, which obviously left him with something in the tank for the finish.
Actually, that pace may have been the reason why Mr. Prankster wound up fourth. The promising colt has previously won the two prep races for the John Battaglia -- the Turfway Prevue Stakes and the WEBN Stakes -- in highly impressive fashion. But the late-running colt had very quick paces to chase in those races, actually three to four seconds faster than he did in the John Battaglia. Seeing that the pace should be much quicker today, I would think that Mr. Prankster will rebound in good fashion.
Russian Greek, Stealcase, and Holiday Promise are going to be longer prices, but may have just as good a chance at winning as the favorites. Russian Greek looked good earlier this year when he won the California Derby with a strong late run. However, he failed to menace in his last start, the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), where he wound up a soundly beaten fifth. But he is taking a bit of a class drop here, and seeing that he has already has a stakes victory over a synthetic track, he could be coming on strongly at the finish to secure a major piece of the purse. The addition of blinkers should also help his chances.
Stealcase has won only one of his four starts to date, and is coming off of a 10 3/4-length defeat in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), but several things make me think that he could be a major contender here. For one thing, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time -- and his trainer, Mike Casse, wins at a 25% rate under those circumstances. Furthermore, prior to the Gotham, this colt ran in a pair of potentially key maiden races. On December 24th, he finished fourth in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream behind Thunder Moccasin, Ender Knievel, and Panthro, all of whom came back to win their next starts. Then, on January 19th, Stealcase broke his maiden over a colt named Windersurfer, who also came back to win his next race. Based on these factors, as well as a few others, I really think this colt could be something special.
Holiday Promise, the other Todd Pletcher-trainee in this race, does not have the same flashy record as his stablemate, but could nevertheless be in the mix. He's only won once from five starts, that victory coming last November at Laurel Park, but he's run well enough since then to suggest that he could be a threat from off the pace. I particularly liked his fourth-place effort two starts back against subsequent stakes winner Raconteur, where he closed strongly late from off the pace to be beaten just 1 3/4 lengths in a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race.
The longshots in this field are Red Jack, All Squared Away, Coach Royal, and Tizanexpense. Red Jack, from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, has only a single victory from nine starts, most recently finishing third in a claiming race at Oaklawn Park. All Squared Away is coming off of a second-place finish in a starter allowance race, having previously finished seventh in the El Camino Real Derby. Coach Royal has never won a race, despite having raced eight times, but is coming off of a pair of half-length defeats in nine-furlong turf maiden special weights at Gulfstream Park. Seeing that he has seven route races under his belt already, there's no denying that he has the experience to be a contender here, but the bigger question is whether or not he is talented enough. As for Tizanexpense, he won a pair of races at Fair Grounds last winter, but is coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), where he was beaten eleven lengths. But to be perfectly honest, he didn't get the best of trips that day, and he could certainly be a contender here if doesn't get hung wide around the first turn.
So there you have it -- the twelve-horse Spiral Stakes, in which no horse seems to really stand out and every one of them has at least a moderate chance at hitting the board. I really have no idea who to pick, but since this is one of contest races for the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest between J.R. and I, here are our selections:
Keelerman
1 Handsome Mike
2 Went the Day Well
2 Stealcase
4 Mr. Prankster
J.R.
1 Stealcase
2 Went the Day Well
3 Ill Conceived
4 Holiday Promise
Other Races of Note
At Fair Grounds on Saturday . . .
Race 10: This six-furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds has drawn a pair of colts that broke their maidens impressively here at Fair Grounds earlier in the meet: Bourbon Courage and Macho Macho. Of the two, Bourbon Courage is probably best, seeing that he soundly defeated both Macho Macho when breaking his maiden, earning a Beyer speed figure of 103 in the process. Macho Macho has clearly improved since then, for he won his next start by 2 1/4 lengths in a highly impressive performance. A victory for either one of them could put them on the track to future success in stakes races.
At Gulfstream Park on Saturday . . .
Race 4: A 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds, this race looks like a good one indeed. A number of quality sprinters have been entered, including Right to Vote, making his first start since finishing third in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last year. He looks like a solid favorite, but local allowance runners Seve, Dangerous Trick, and Blings Express all look capable of pulling off an upset if the favorite isn't dead fit in his first start since last October. Incredicat, who broke his maiden last December at Woodbine, could also be in the mix.
At Turfway Park on Saturday . . .
Race 8: While I doubt that the one-mile Rushaway Stakes is going to turn out a Derby contender, the race has nevertheless drawn a quality field of runners led by Gung Ho, Flashy Dresser, Gold Megillah, and Dynamical. Gung Ho won the Sunday Silence Stakes on the turf as a juvenile, but hasn't raced since finishing seventh in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). Flashy Dresser broke his maiden by 6 3/4 lengths earlier this month at Gulfstream, but is taking a step up in class. Gold Megillah has proven to be a solid competitor in allowance races at Gulfstream, and Dynamical is coming off of a third-place finish in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes here at Turfway. It's hard to say who will triumph, but I've always felt that Gung Ho could be a nice one, and I will be watching to see how he does.
-Keelerman
Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
Nine Furlongs on the Turfway Park synthetic track
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Russian Greek | Corey Nakatani |
| 2 | Red Jack | Martin Pedroza |
| 3 | Heavy Breathing | Javier Castellano |
| 4 | Went the Day Well | John Velazquez |
| 5 | Holiday Promise | Junior Alvarado |
| 6 | All Squared Away | Luis Contreras |
| 7 | Ill Conceived | Stewart Elliott |
| 8 | Coach Royal | Fernando Jara |
| 9 | Tizanexpense | Victor Lebron |
| 10 | Mr. Prankster | Rosie Napravnik |
| 11 | Stealcase | Rajiv Maragh |
| 12 | Handsome Mike | Joel Rosario |
The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Heavy Breathing, an up-and-coming young runner from the barn of Todd Pletcher. The son of Giant's Causeway is undefeated in two starts, having broken his maiden impressively at Gulfstream before winning a nine-furlong allowance race, also at Gulfstream. The talent is clearly there, and he will be retaining the services of top jockey Javier Castellano, but this will be his first start over a synthetic track and one must wonder how well he will take to it.
If Heavy Breathing doesn't care for the track, then Went the Day Well and Handsome Mike should be right there at the finish. The first-mentioned colt, owned by Team Valor International, began his career in Europe, where he finished second in a pair of maiden races. He was then purchased by Team Valor and brought to the United States, where he finished fourth in his first start here before breaking his maiden last time out in excellent fashion going a mile and a sixteenth at Gulfstream Park. With John Velazquez in the saddle, expect this colt to get a great trip while coming from mid-pack.
As for Handsome Mike, he has been facing some of the best colts that California has to offer, finishing seventh (beaten just 2 3/4 lengths) in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), fourth in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), and third in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). It would appear as though he just isn't good enough to defeat the best colts in California, but he should find this field more suited to his ability; in fact, his Beyer speed figures pretty much tower over those of his rivals in this spot. I love the fact that Joel Rosario will be flying here from California to ride this colt. To me, that says something about this horse's ability.
Ill Conceived and Mr. Prankster, the second- and fourth-place finishers, respectively, in last month's John Battaglia Memorial Stakes here at Turfway, should also be major contenders. Ill Conceived set the pace that day before losing the lead to a quality colt in State of Play, but was actually closing the gap again at the finish and might have won if the race had been slightly longer. On the other hand, he was allowed to set a very, very slow pace that day of :49.83 and 1:14.71, which obviously left him with something in the tank for the finish.
Actually, that pace may have been the reason why Mr. Prankster wound up fourth. The promising colt has previously won the two prep races for the John Battaglia -- the Turfway Prevue Stakes and the WEBN Stakes -- in highly impressive fashion. But the late-running colt had very quick paces to chase in those races, actually three to four seconds faster than he did in the John Battaglia. Seeing that the pace should be much quicker today, I would think that Mr. Prankster will rebound in good fashion.
Russian Greek, Stealcase, and Holiday Promise are going to be longer prices, but may have just as good a chance at winning as the favorites. Russian Greek looked good earlier this year when he won the California Derby with a strong late run. However, he failed to menace in his last start, the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), where he wound up a soundly beaten fifth. But he is taking a bit of a class drop here, and seeing that he has already has a stakes victory over a synthetic track, he could be coming on strongly at the finish to secure a major piece of the purse. The addition of blinkers should also help his chances.
Stealcase has won only one of his four starts to date, and is coming off of a 10 3/4-length defeat in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), but several things make me think that he could be a major contender here. For one thing, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time -- and his trainer, Mike Casse, wins at a 25% rate under those circumstances. Furthermore, prior to the Gotham, this colt ran in a pair of potentially key maiden races. On December 24th, he finished fourth in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream behind Thunder Moccasin, Ender Knievel, and Panthro, all of whom came back to win their next starts. Then, on January 19th, Stealcase broke his maiden over a colt named Windersurfer, who also came back to win his next race. Based on these factors, as well as a few others, I really think this colt could be something special.
Holiday Promise, the other Todd Pletcher-trainee in this race, does not have the same flashy record as his stablemate, but could nevertheless be in the mix. He's only won once from five starts, that victory coming last November at Laurel Park, but he's run well enough since then to suggest that he could be a threat from off the pace. I particularly liked his fourth-place effort two starts back against subsequent stakes winner Raconteur, where he closed strongly late from off the pace to be beaten just 1 3/4 lengths in a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race.
The longshots in this field are Red Jack, All Squared Away, Coach Royal, and Tizanexpense. Red Jack, from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, has only a single victory from nine starts, most recently finishing third in a claiming race at Oaklawn Park. All Squared Away is coming off of a second-place finish in a starter allowance race, having previously finished seventh in the El Camino Real Derby. Coach Royal has never won a race, despite having raced eight times, but is coming off of a pair of half-length defeats in nine-furlong turf maiden special weights at Gulfstream Park. Seeing that he has seven route races under his belt already, there's no denying that he has the experience to be a contender here, but the bigger question is whether or not he is talented enough. As for Tizanexpense, he won a pair of races at Fair Grounds last winter, but is coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), where he was beaten eleven lengths. But to be perfectly honest, he didn't get the best of trips that day, and he could certainly be a contender here if doesn't get hung wide around the first turn.
So there you have it -- the twelve-horse Spiral Stakes, in which no horse seems to really stand out and every one of them has at least a moderate chance at hitting the board. I really have no idea who to pick, but since this is one of contest races for the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest between J.R. and I, here are our selections:
Keelerman
1 Handsome Mike
2 Went the Day Well
2 Stealcase
4 Mr. Prankster
J.R.
1 Stealcase
2 Went the Day Well
3 Ill Conceived
4 Holiday Promise
Other Races of Note
At Fair Grounds on Saturday . . .
Race 10: This six-furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds has drawn a pair of colts that broke their maidens impressively here at Fair Grounds earlier in the meet: Bourbon Courage and Macho Macho. Of the two, Bourbon Courage is probably best, seeing that he soundly defeated both Macho Macho when breaking his maiden, earning a Beyer speed figure of 103 in the process. Macho Macho has clearly improved since then, for he won his next start by 2 1/4 lengths in a highly impressive performance. A victory for either one of them could put them on the track to future success in stakes races.
At Gulfstream Park on Saturday . . .
Race 4: A 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds, this race looks like a good one indeed. A number of quality sprinters have been entered, including Right to Vote, making his first start since finishing third in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last year. He looks like a solid favorite, but local allowance runners Seve, Dangerous Trick, and Blings Express all look capable of pulling off an upset if the favorite isn't dead fit in his first start since last October. Incredicat, who broke his maiden last December at Woodbine, could also be in the mix.
At Turfway Park on Saturday . . .
Race 8: While I doubt that the one-mile Rushaway Stakes is going to turn out a Derby contender, the race has nevertheless drawn a quality field of runners led by Gung Ho, Flashy Dresser, Gold Megillah, and Dynamical. Gung Ho won the Sunday Silence Stakes on the turf as a juvenile, but hasn't raced since finishing seventh in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). Flashy Dresser broke his maiden by 6 3/4 lengths earlier this month at Gulfstream, but is taking a step up in class. Gold Megillah has proven to be a solid competitor in allowance races at Gulfstream, and Dynamical is coming off of a third-place finish in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes here at Turfway. It's hard to say who will triumph, but I've always felt that Gung Ho could be a nice one, and I will be watching to see how he does.
-Keelerman
Friday, March 23, 2012
CHIPS ALL IN WINS THE PASADENA STAKES!
Chips All In rebounded from a last-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) last month to win Santa Anita's $70,000 Pasadena Stakes this afternoon.
Ridden to victory by Alonso Quinonez, Chips All In got off to an excellent start and went straight to the lead in the one-mile turf event, setting a moderate pace of :24.05 and :48.17 while leading by about a length. Tones was racing right behind him in second, followed along the rail by Midnight Crooner and on the outside by Unusual Heatwave. As it turns out, those four raced in that order all the way around the racetrack.
Ridden to victory by Alonso Quinonez, Chips All In got off to an excellent start and went straight to the lead in the one-mile turf event, setting a moderate pace of :24.05 and :48.17 while leading by about a length. Tones was racing right behind him in second, followed along the rail by Midnight Crooner and on the outside by Unusual Heatwave. As it turns out, those four raced in that order all the way around the racetrack.
A Three-Year-Old to Watch: Holy Candy
Holy Candy turned in a highly impressive performance this afternoon to stamp himself as a colt of very high quality, rolling past Eaton Hall in the stretch of a one-mile maiden special weight to win for the first time in four attempts.
Ridden to victory by Joel Rosario, Holy Candy settled off the pace in the fourth position early on as Eaton Hall, trained by Bob Baffert, set a slow pace of :24.69 and :48.64 while leading clearly. Longshot Gophari was racing in second, followed by Seal the Deal along the rail. Stratify was the early trailer after an awkward start.
Ridden to victory by Joel Rosario, Holy Candy settled off the pace in the fourth position early on as Eaton Hall, trained by Bob Baffert, set a slow pace of :24.69 and :48.64 while leading clearly. Longshot Gophari was racing in second, followed by Seal the Deal along the rail. Stratify was the early trailer after an awkward start.
TRIPLE CROWN UPDATE -- March 23rd, 2012
While this lonely Friday may be a bit empty in terms of major racing action, there are nevertheless a pair of intriguing races being held this afternoon at Santa Anita.
The biggest -- but not necessarily the one with the best chance to influence the Triple Crown -- is the Pasadena Stakes, a one-mile turf race for three-year-olds. The race has a little of everything: a Bob Baffert-trained runner, a quintet of European imports, and several proven stakes winner. You could select any horse and have a good chance at having picked the winner.
The biggest -- but not necessarily the one with the best chance to influence the Triple Crown -- is the Pasadena Stakes, a one-mile turf race for three-year-olds. The race has a little of everything: a Bob Baffert-trained runner, a quintet of European imports, and several proven stakes winner. You could select any horse and have a good chance at having picked the winner.
Thursday, March 22, 2012
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 22nd, 2012
Here are my recaps of last week's major racing action for three-year-olds, including Secret Circle's victory in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and the impressive performances turned in by a number of lesser-known horses. Enjoy!
Major Stakes Recaps
Rebel Stakes (gr. II)
Thoughts: While I still don't think that Secret Circle is going to be a top-class horse at a mile and a quarter, I must admit that this colt is clearly one of the most talented on his crop. Even though he was slowing down at the finish of the Rebel, and drifting quite a bit, he still had enough left in the tank to hold off the late charge of Optimizer, who made up 4 3/4 lengths inside the final eighth of a mile to make the finish close. I like the fact that Secret Circle was able to show a new dimension, rating off the pace in third before blowing past the leaders in early stretch. Optimizer clearly ran his best race yet here, finally fulfilling the potential he displayed as a juvenile. Let's also give some credit to Jake Mo, who has run fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes, second in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and now fourth in the Rebel. He has proven himself to be consistent if nothing else, and should be watched down the road.
As for the future, both Secret Circle and Optimizer could come back next month for the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby, in which the advantage would probably go to Optimizer, seeing that the Arkansas Derby will be a sixteenth of a mile longer than the Rebel. On the other hand, Secret Circle just keeps on winning, so you never know.
Broad Brush Stakes
Thoughts: Street Life probably stamped himself a ticket to the upcoming Wood Memorial (gr. I) when he flew home fast to win this race by a half-length. It really didn't look good for the son of Street Sense rounding the far turn, as the colt was losing ground to pace setting Copy My Swagger, a stretch-out sprinter that was able to escape with extremely slow fractions of :50.73 and 1:15.35. Nevertheless, Street Life finished powerfully in the stretch, making up 3 1/2 lengths inside the eighth pole to win under a strong hand ride. It's clear that this colt possesses a potent late kick, and he should only benefit from faster paces in the future.
Other Races of Note
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/three-year-old-to-watch-stat.html
Stat really looked great in this spot, drawing away strongly in the stretch to win by 6 1/4 lengths. He did drift out in the homestretch, but he nevertheless closed his final quarter in a good :24.87 to win the one-mile race in 1:35.90. I really wouldn't be surprised if this colt turns up in a Derby prep race in an attempt to join the trail. Also impressive was runner-up Isutalkintome, who made an eye-catching bid around the turn to reach contention. He was never a threat to the winner, but could be one to watch further down the road.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/gemologist-wins-gulfstream-park.html
As impressive as Stat was in his allowance race, his stablemate Gemologist was even more impressive the day before. After an excellent break, the colt went straight to the lead, set a moderate pace, and powered home under a mere hand ride to win the one-mile race in 1:35.95. The performance was, to put it bluntly, breathtaking. The Wood Memorial (gr. I) will be his next start.
At Santa Anita on Saturday, Senor Rain got back on track with a highly impressive victory in a seven-furlong allowance race. The colt had placed in a quartet of California stakes races during his young career, but his lone two victories had come against maiden claiming and starter allowance company. Nevertheless, the colt looked top class on Saturday when he wore down the talented Bob Baffert-trainee Brigand to win the race 1 1/2 lengths, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:21.50. It appears as though Senor Rain may have a bright future sprinting.
Out at Oaklawn Park, Z Rockstar caught eyes with a solid allowance victory going a mile and a sixteenth. After tracking a solid early pace while racing along the rail, the colt moved up on the outside to challenge for the lead around the far turn and drew off late to score by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:44.09. Previously the sixth-place finisher behind Secret Circle in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), this performance was much stronger and stamped the colt as one to watch in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) next month, should his connections choose to send him there.
Although we do not usually mention Turf Paradise as a track upon which potential Derby horses stretch their legs, it appears as though a very high quality colt may emerge from that racetrack this year. The horse would be Tequila Factor, who won the $35,000 Tempe Handicap on March 17th in highly impressive fashion. Allowed to settle into fourth early on under jockey Glenn Corbett in the one-mile turf event, the son of Pure Prize moved up powerfully around the turn to take a clear advantage into the stretch, which he extended to 5 3/4 lengths at the finish. What made the performance especially impressive was that he was able to stay close to a fairly quick pace (they ran the half-mile in :46.85) and still close his final eighth in :12.58. Although he has never won a race on dirt, he's entered in Sunday's $800,000 Borderland Derby (gr. III), where he will get a chance to try and earn his way to Louisville.
The last race I shall mention is the $75,000 Private Terms Stakes, which was run at Laurel Park last Saturday. The favorite was the Todd Pletcher-trainee Raconteur, who was coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Gotham Stakes behind juvenile champion and leading Derby contender Hansen. The colt did not disappoint, wearing down the talented Hakama to win by a desperate head. The final time of 1:37.69 was not all that impressive, but Raconteur certainly was. Intriguingly, this is a colt that lost his first five starts, but who has now won three of his last four. Being a son of A.P. Indy, whose progeny tend to get better with age, I suppose that isn't too surprising. But it does leave me wondering whether this colt will get even better in the future.
-Keelerman
Major Stakes Recaps
Rebel Stakes (gr. II)
Thoughts: While I still don't think that Secret Circle is going to be a top-class horse at a mile and a quarter, I must admit that this colt is clearly one of the most talented on his crop. Even though he was slowing down at the finish of the Rebel, and drifting quite a bit, he still had enough left in the tank to hold off the late charge of Optimizer, who made up 4 3/4 lengths inside the final eighth of a mile to make the finish close. I like the fact that Secret Circle was able to show a new dimension, rating off the pace in third before blowing past the leaders in early stretch. Optimizer clearly ran his best race yet here, finally fulfilling the potential he displayed as a juvenile. Let's also give some credit to Jake Mo, who has run fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes, second in the first division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and now fourth in the Rebel. He has proven himself to be consistent if nothing else, and should be watched down the road.
As for the future, both Secret Circle and Optimizer could come back next month for the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby, in which the advantage would probably go to Optimizer, seeing that the Arkansas Derby will be a sixteenth of a mile longer than the Rebel. On the other hand, Secret Circle just keeps on winning, so you never know.
Broad Brush Stakes
Thoughts: Street Life probably stamped himself a ticket to the upcoming Wood Memorial (gr. I) when he flew home fast to win this race by a half-length. It really didn't look good for the son of Street Sense rounding the far turn, as the colt was losing ground to pace setting Copy My Swagger, a stretch-out sprinter that was able to escape with extremely slow fractions of :50.73 and 1:15.35. Nevertheless, Street Life finished powerfully in the stretch, making up 3 1/2 lengths inside the eighth pole to win under a strong hand ride. It's clear that this colt possesses a potent late kick, and he should only benefit from faster paces in the future.
Other Races of Note
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/three-year-old-to-watch-stat.html
Stat really looked great in this spot, drawing away strongly in the stretch to win by 6 1/4 lengths. He did drift out in the homestretch, but he nevertheless closed his final quarter in a good :24.87 to win the one-mile race in 1:35.90. I really wouldn't be surprised if this colt turns up in a Derby prep race in an attempt to join the trail. Also impressive was runner-up Isutalkintome, who made an eye-catching bid around the turn to reach contention. He was never a threat to the winner, but could be one to watch further down the road.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/gemologist-wins-gulfstream-park.html
As impressive as Stat was in his allowance race, his stablemate Gemologist was even more impressive the day before. After an excellent break, the colt went straight to the lead, set a moderate pace, and powered home under a mere hand ride to win the one-mile race in 1:35.95. The performance was, to put it bluntly, breathtaking. The Wood Memorial (gr. I) will be his next start.
At Santa Anita on Saturday, Senor Rain got back on track with a highly impressive victory in a seven-furlong allowance race. The colt had placed in a quartet of California stakes races during his young career, but his lone two victories had come against maiden claiming and starter allowance company. Nevertheless, the colt looked top class on Saturday when he wore down the talented Bob Baffert-trainee Brigand to win the race 1 1/2 lengths, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:21.50. It appears as though Senor Rain may have a bright future sprinting.
Out at Oaklawn Park, Z Rockstar caught eyes with a solid allowance victory going a mile and a sixteenth. After tracking a solid early pace while racing along the rail, the colt moved up on the outside to challenge for the lead around the far turn and drew off late to score by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:44.09. Previously the sixth-place finisher behind Secret Circle in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), this performance was much stronger and stamped the colt as one to watch in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) next month, should his connections choose to send him there.
Although we do not usually mention Turf Paradise as a track upon which potential Derby horses stretch their legs, it appears as though a very high quality colt may emerge from that racetrack this year. The horse would be Tequila Factor, who won the $35,000 Tempe Handicap on March 17th in highly impressive fashion. Allowed to settle into fourth early on under jockey Glenn Corbett in the one-mile turf event, the son of Pure Prize moved up powerfully around the turn to take a clear advantage into the stretch, which he extended to 5 3/4 lengths at the finish. What made the performance especially impressive was that he was able to stay close to a fairly quick pace (they ran the half-mile in :46.85) and still close his final eighth in :12.58. Although he has never won a race on dirt, he's entered in Sunday's $800,000 Borderland Derby (gr. III), where he will get a chance to try and earn his way to Louisville.
The last race I shall mention is the $75,000 Private Terms Stakes, which was run at Laurel Park last Saturday. The favorite was the Todd Pletcher-trainee Raconteur, who was coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Gotham Stakes behind juvenile champion and leading Derby contender Hansen. The colt did not disappoint, wearing down the talented Hakama to win by a desperate head. The final time of 1:37.69 was not all that impressive, but Raconteur certainly was. Intriguingly, this is a colt that lost his first five starts, but who has now won three of his last four. Being a son of A.P. Indy, whose progeny tend to get better with age, I suppose that isn't too surprising. But it does leave me wondering whether this colt will get even better in the future.
-Keelerman
Vinery Spiral Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $500,000 Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III), to be run on Saturday at Turfway Park. A nine-furlong prep race for the $2,000,000 Kentucky Derby (gr. I), the Spiral Stakes was won last year by Animal Kingdom, who went on to secure victory in the Derby itself six weeks later. This year's edition of the Spiral has drawn a large field of twelve, including proven stakes winners Russian Greek and Mr. Prankster, in addition to a number of lightly raced runners such as Heavy Breathing and Went the Day Well.
1 Russian Greek
2 Red Jack
3 Heavy Breathing
1 Russian Greek
2 Red Jack
3 Heavy Breathing
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Sunland Park Oaks Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 Sunland Park Oaks, to be run on Sunday at Sunland Park. A major prep race for the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I), the race was won last year by the Bob Baffert-trained filly Plum Pretty, who went on to capture the Kentucky Oaks in her next start.
Baffert will be sending another top filly to the Sunland Park Oaks this year, that filly being the highly promising and undefeated Princess Arabella, winner of both of her starts in dominating fashion. She figures to be sent off as the odds-on favorite on Sunday in what will likely be her final prep for the Kentucky Oaks.
1 Feisty Flirt
2 Sophisticated
3 Princess Arabella
Baffert will be sending another top filly to the Sunland Park Oaks this year, that filly being the highly promising and undefeated Princess Arabella, winner of both of her starts in dominating fashion. She figures to be sent off as the odds-on favorite on Sunday in what will likely be her final prep for the Kentucky Oaks.
1 Feisty Flirt
2 Sophisticated
3 Princess Arabella
Sunland Derby Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III), to be run on Sunday at Sunland Park. A nine-furlong prep race for the $2,000,000 Kentucky Derby, the race has drawn a field of eight, led by Southwest Stakes (gr. III) winner Castaway, El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) winner Daddy Nose Best, Borderland Derby winner Isn't He Clever, and a pair of promising up-and-comers Stirred Up and Ender Knievel.
1 Castaway
2 Ender Knievel
3 Stirred Up
1 Castaway
2 Ender Knievel
3 Stirred Up
Saturday, March 17, 2012
SECRET CIRCLE WINS THE REBEL STAKES!
Secret Circle gave Bob Baffert his third straight victory in Oaklawn Park's $500,000 Rebel Stakes (gr. II) when the highly talented colt wore down Scatman and held off a late bid from Optimizer to win the prestigious Kentucky Derby prep race by three-quarters of a length.
Under an excellent ride from Rafael Bejarano, Secret Circle settled into the third position early on as Unbridled's Note and Scatman set a moderate pace of :23.43 and :47.09. Cyber Secret was along the rail racing in fourth. Sabercat, Adirondack King, and Najjaar were among the early trailers.
The positions remained relatively unchanged as the field moved down the backstretch, but rounding the final turn Cyber Secret shifted off the rail to commence a three-wide bid for the lead, briefly locking the heavily favored Secret Circle into a pocket. Adirondack King was also lodging a strong bid on the far outside.
As the field entered the homestretch, Scatman left Unbridled's Note behind and kicked on for home. Secret Circle, having found racing room, was charging hard on the far outside. Jake Mo was down along the rail in third, while Cyber Secret and Adirondack King were beginning to flatten out.
Inside the eighth pole, the race appeared to be a replay of the second division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), run here at Oaklawn last month, with Scatman and Secret Circle dueling gamely for the lead. However, late in the stretch, Secret Circle powered clear from his rival and appeared to be on his way to an easy win.
But then, out of the clouds came Optimizer, closing furiously down the center of the racetrack at odds of 25-1. He briefly appeared capable of catching the heavy favorite, but Secret Circle held him off late to score in good fashion, stopping the clock for a mile and a sixteenth in 1:44.55.
Scatman held on to third over Jake Mo, with Cyber Secret rounding out the top five.
-Keelerman
Under an excellent ride from Rafael Bejarano, Secret Circle settled into the third position early on as Unbridled's Note and Scatman set a moderate pace of :23.43 and :47.09. Cyber Secret was along the rail racing in fourth. Sabercat, Adirondack King, and Najjaar were among the early trailers.
The positions remained relatively unchanged as the field moved down the backstretch, but rounding the final turn Cyber Secret shifted off the rail to commence a three-wide bid for the lead, briefly locking the heavily favored Secret Circle into a pocket. Adirondack King was also lodging a strong bid on the far outside.
As the field entered the homestretch, Scatman left Unbridled's Note behind and kicked on for home. Secret Circle, having found racing room, was charging hard on the far outside. Jake Mo was down along the rail in third, while Cyber Secret and Adirondack King were beginning to flatten out.
Inside the eighth pole, the race appeared to be a replay of the second division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), run here at Oaklawn last month, with Scatman and Secret Circle dueling gamely for the lead. However, late in the stretch, Secret Circle powered clear from his rival and appeared to be on his way to an easy win.
But then, out of the clouds came Optimizer, closing furiously down the center of the racetrack at odds of 25-1. He briefly appeared capable of catching the heavy favorite, but Secret Circle held him off late to score in good fashion, stopping the clock for a mile and a sixteenth in 1:44.55.
Scatman held on to third over Jake Mo, with Cyber Secret rounding out the top five.
-Keelerman
A Three-Year-Old to Watch: Stat
Stat stamped himself as a three-year-old of very high caliber when he drew off in the Gulfstream Park homestretch to win a one-mile allowance optional claiming race by 6 1/4 lengths.
Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Stat got off to an excellent start and settled into the second position early on behind even-money favorite Scatter Joy, who set an good pace of :24.05 and :46.98. Bellefire was racing behind them in third, followed by Space Race and Junior Officer.
Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Stat got off to an excellent start and settled into the second position early on behind even-money favorite Scatter Joy, who set an good pace of :24.05 and :46.98. Bellefire was racing behind them in third, followed by Space Race and Junior Officer.
STREET LIFE WINS THE BROAD BRUSH STAKES!
Street Life charged powerfully from off the pace to win the $75,000 Broad Brush Stakes this afternoon at Aqueduct by a half-length.
Ridden to victory by Junior Alvarado, Street Life settled into the fourth position early on as Copy My Swagger set a slow pace of :25.35 and :50.73 while leading by 1 1/2 lengths over Hard Facts. Festive Spirit was sitting along the rail in a good position while third, with Romp City and Swag Daddy content to trail the field early.
Ridden to victory by Junior Alvarado, Street Life settled into the fourth position early on as Copy My Swagger set a slow pace of :25.35 and :50.73 while leading by 1 1/2 lengths over Hard Facts. Festive Spirit was sitting along the rail in a good position while third, with Romp City and Swag Daddy content to trail the field early.
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 17th, 2012
By the time today's races are over, we should have a much better idea of just how talented a number of major Triple Crown contenders are. By tonight, we shall know if Secret Circle has any chance at winning at stretching his brilliant speed to a mile and a quarter in the Kentucky Derby. By tonight, we shall know just how well Sabercat has progressed from two to three. By tonight, we shall know if there are any under-the-radar Derby horses down at Oaklawn that should be watched closely during the coming weeks. By tonight, the 2012 edition of the $500,000 Rebel Stakes (gr. II) will be in the history books. Let's start handicapping!
Friday, March 16, 2012
KEELERMAN'S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP TWENTY - March 16th, 2012
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He's back on top thanks to a highly impressive victory in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), in which he secured an excellent pace-tracking trip before closing fast to catch Bodemeister in deep stretch. He galloped out well clear of the field, earned a big Beyer speed figure, and looks like a strong favorite for the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) next month.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He's back into the number two spot, but not because he did anything wrong -- he's back here simply because I had to return Creative Cause to the top. It's hard to believe that the Florida Derby is just fifteen days away, but he should have time to turn in a couple more good breezes prior to what will be his final Kentucky Derby prep race.
3. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It sounds like he is going to head to the Florida Derby, where we should get a very clear idea of how well he stacks up againts Union Rags. On March 12th, he breezed for the first time since his Risen Star victory, going an easy half-mile in :48.08 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
4. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
He has assumed the role of Louisana Derby favorite, what with El Padrino being pointed now toward the Florida Derby. I really expect this colt to run even better next time out, which would certainly make him tough to beat. My only concern is that he hasn't breezed since the Risen Star, but there's still plenty of time to get ready.
5. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He looked simply terrific earlier today at Gulfstream Park, winning a one-mile allowance race by seven lengths while defeating Currency Swap, winner of the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last year. What was most impressive was the fact that he drew off so powerfully under a mere hand ride -- while closing his final quarter in a good :24.69.
6. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
The Wood Memorial is going to tell us a whole lot more about this colt -- mainly whether or not he has a shot at winning a race at a mile and a quarter. What I want to see from this colt in the Wood is a strong final eighth of a mile. I don't care if he runs the opening half mile in :48 flat, so long as he turns in a :12 1/5 or :12 2/5 final eighth. But if he runs an opening half mile in :48 and closes his final eighth in :13 flat, I'm going to be very worried about his ability to win a race like the Derby.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Turned in another good workout on March 12th, going a mile in 1:42 3/5 at Santa Anita Park. There is no doubt that this colt is going to be dead fit for the Santa Anita Derby, where he will have to be sharp to defeat the likes of Creative Cause.
8. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
I thought his second-place effort in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) was exceptional, for he turned in a strong four-wide bid to fall just a length short of wire-to-wire winner Howe Great. By my caculations, Dullahan closed his fourth quarter in a brilliant :22.99 and his final eighth in :11.54. This effort should prepare him perfectly for the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) in April.
9. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
He's drawn gate six in Saturday's Rebel Stakes (gr. II), where he'll have to face Secret Circle, Scatman, and Najjaar, among others. He'll have to be sharp if he is to win what will be his first start since mid-November, but he doesn't have to win this race to remain a serious Derby contender. So long as he's running well at the finish, I'll be satisfied.
10. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
His runner-up effort in the San Felipe was exceptional, as he was able to track a fairly quick early pace and still finish strongly. Being a front runner, there are obviously questions about his ability to win a ten-furlong race, but being by Empire Maker out of a Storm Cat mare, he should have sufficient stamina to traverse at least nine furlongs against the best of company.
11. Castaway (Street Sense - Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's being pointed toward the Sunland Derby (gr. III) on March 25th, which should be a great spot to pick up some additional graded stakes earnings and get additional experience without having to take on the best at Oaklawn Park. He's got a stamina-oriented pedigree, so I will be interested to see how he performs as the distances stretch out.
12. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
According to DRF.com, he is now "60-40" for the Wood Memorial, where he would be ridden by Javier Castellano. His other option is the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) on April 1st, where he would face Mark Valeski. Apparently, the Florida Derby -- which has turned into a tough race with Union Rags, El Padrino, and Take Charge Indy all pointing toward it -- is no longer under serious consideration.
13. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
He skipped the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) to await the Florida Derby, which -- as I mentioned above -- is not going to be the easiest of races to win. He hasn't breezed since March 4th, but I expect to see him back on the work tab soon. Being by A.P. Indy, I expect him to improve a great deal with age.
14. My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) Trained by Kelly Breen
I really don't know quite what to think of this colt, and probably won't until after he competes in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) on April 7th. Part of why I don't know what to think of him is the huge difference in running styles that he has displayed throughout his career, ranging from a quick, front-running type to a deep, deep closer, and everything in between.
15. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
Perhaps you are wondering why I still have this colt ranked this high following his ninth place effort in the San Felipe Stakes, in which he was beaten some 21 lengths. The reason is that his performance was simply too bad to be true. It would have been one thing if he had finished fifth, beaten seven lengths, or something along those lines. But because he ran so poorly, I'm going to forgive the effort and hope that something just went wrong.
16. News Pending (Harlan's Holiday - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan) Trained by Dale Romans
On March 11th, he breezed for the first time since his runner-up effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), turning in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00.95. He's pointing toward the Florida Derby, where he'll have to run well to secure enough graded earnings to make the Derby field, but perhaps he simply is that good. You can't count out Dale Romans at this time of year. Remember Shackleford?
17. Prospective (Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) Trained by Mark Casse
I loved the way he showed a new dimension in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II), striking the front much, much earlier than usual -- some 4 1/2 furlongs from home, to be exact -- before turning back a strong late bid from the eventual runner-up to win by three-quarters of a length. This versatile colt is for real. The only question now is which race will be his final Derby prep race. I feel that the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) could be an excellent option, seeing that this colt did win the Grey Stakes (gr. III) over the Woodbine Polytrack as a juvenile.
18. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) Trained by Bob Baffert
An experiment with removing blinkers in the San Felipe Stakes perhaps didn't go quite as planned, for the usually speedy colt found himself dead last after the opening half mile. He never threatened for victory, but he ran well enough to finish fourth, and I'm going to give him one more chance to try and re-prove himself before tossing him out of Derby consideration.
19. Our Entourage (Street Cry - Sand Springs, by Dynaformer) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Owned by Repole Stables of Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty fame, the promising colt won a turf allowance race February 25th in terrific fashion and is currently pointing toward a start in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) in April, where he will get a chance to prove himself as a serious Derby contender.
20. Paynter (Awesome Again - Tizso, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by Bob Baffert
Talk about a colt joining the Derby trail at a late date! This highly promising colt broke his maiden on February 18th in highly impressive fashion, coasting to a 4 1/4 length victory going 5-1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita in what remains his only start to date. However, it was announced recently that he is pointing toward the Illinois Derby (gr. III) in April, a victory in which could potentially launch him en route to the Kentucky Derby. There's no denying that he has talent, but no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby off of just two races. It would be an amazing feat if he even makes the Derby starting gate!
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Cigar Street
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Exothermic
Golden Ticket
Heavy Breathing
Holy Candy
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Motor City
Mr. Prankster
Najjaar
Paynter
Prospective
Reckless Jerry
Rousing Sermon
Scatman
Secret Circle
Shared Property
Stirred Up
Z Dager
-Keelerman
He's back on top thanks to a highly impressive victory in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), in which he secured an excellent pace-tracking trip before closing fast to catch Bodemeister in deep stretch. He galloped out well clear of the field, earned a big Beyer speed figure, and looks like a strong favorite for the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) next month.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He's back into the number two spot, but not because he did anything wrong -- he's back here simply because I had to return Creative Cause to the top. It's hard to believe that the Florida Derby is just fifteen days away, but he should have time to turn in a couple more good breezes prior to what will be his final Kentucky Derby prep race.
3. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It sounds like he is going to head to the Florida Derby, where we should get a very clear idea of how well he stacks up againts Union Rags. On March 12th, he breezed for the first time since his Risen Star victory, going an easy half-mile in :48.08 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
4. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
He has assumed the role of Louisana Derby favorite, what with El Padrino being pointed now toward the Florida Derby. I really expect this colt to run even better next time out, which would certainly make him tough to beat. My only concern is that he hasn't breezed since the Risen Star, but there's still plenty of time to get ready.
5. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He looked simply terrific earlier today at Gulfstream Park, winning a one-mile allowance race by seven lengths while defeating Currency Swap, winner of the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last year. What was most impressive was the fact that he drew off so powerfully under a mere hand ride -- while closing his final quarter in a good :24.69.
6. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
The Wood Memorial is going to tell us a whole lot more about this colt -- mainly whether or not he has a shot at winning a race at a mile and a quarter. What I want to see from this colt in the Wood is a strong final eighth of a mile. I don't care if he runs the opening half mile in :48 flat, so long as he turns in a :12 1/5 or :12 2/5 final eighth. But if he runs an opening half mile in :48 and closes his final eighth in :13 flat, I'm going to be very worried about his ability to win a race like the Derby.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Turned in another good workout on March 12th, going a mile in 1:42 3/5 at Santa Anita Park. There is no doubt that this colt is going to be dead fit for the Santa Anita Derby, where he will have to be sharp to defeat the likes of Creative Cause.
8. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
I thought his second-place effort in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) was exceptional, for he turned in a strong four-wide bid to fall just a length short of wire-to-wire winner Howe Great. By my caculations, Dullahan closed his fourth quarter in a brilliant :22.99 and his final eighth in :11.54. This effort should prepare him perfectly for the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) in April.
9. Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) Trained by Steve Asmussen
He's drawn gate six in Saturday's Rebel Stakes (gr. II), where he'll have to face Secret Circle, Scatman, and Najjaar, among others. He'll have to be sharp if he is to win what will be his first start since mid-November, but he doesn't have to win this race to remain a serious Derby contender. So long as he's running well at the finish, I'll be satisfied.
10. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
His runner-up effort in the San Felipe was exceptional, as he was able to track a fairly quick early pace and still finish strongly. Being a front runner, there are obviously questions about his ability to win a ten-furlong race, but being by Empire Maker out of a Storm Cat mare, he should have sufficient stamina to traverse at least nine furlongs against the best of company.
11. Castaway (Street Sense - Priceless Storm, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's being pointed toward the Sunland Derby (gr. III) on March 25th, which should be a great spot to pick up some additional graded stakes earnings and get additional experience without having to take on the best at Oaklawn Park. He's got a stamina-oriented pedigree, so I will be interested to see how he performs as the distances stretch out.
12. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
According to DRF.com, he is now "60-40" for the Wood Memorial, where he would be ridden by Javier Castellano. His other option is the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) on April 1st, where he would face Mark Valeski. Apparently, the Florida Derby -- which has turned into a tough race with Union Rags, El Padrino, and Take Charge Indy all pointing toward it -- is no longer under serious consideration.
13. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
He skipped the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) to await the Florida Derby, which -- as I mentioned above -- is not going to be the easiest of races to win. He hasn't breezed since March 4th, but I expect to see him back on the work tab soon. Being by A.P. Indy, I expect him to improve a great deal with age.
14. My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) Trained by Kelly Breen
I really don't know quite what to think of this colt, and probably won't until after he competes in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) on April 7th. Part of why I don't know what to think of him is the huge difference in running styles that he has displayed throughout his career, ranging from a quick, front-running type to a deep, deep closer, and everything in between.
15. Empire Way (Empire Maker - Delta Princess, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mike Harrington
Perhaps you are wondering why I still have this colt ranked this high following his ninth place effort in the San Felipe Stakes, in which he was beaten some 21 lengths. The reason is that his performance was simply too bad to be true. It would have been one thing if he had finished fifth, beaten seven lengths, or something along those lines. But because he ran so poorly, I'm going to forgive the effort and hope that something just went wrong.
16. News Pending (Harlan's Holiday - Motivated Sreva, by Lear Fan) Trained by Dale Romans
On March 11th, he breezed for the first time since his runner-up effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), turning in a sharp five-furlong work in 1:00.95. He's pointing toward the Florida Derby, where he'll have to run well to secure enough graded earnings to make the Derby field, but perhaps he simply is that good. You can't count out Dale Romans at this time of year. Remember Shackleford?
17. Prospective (Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) Trained by Mark Casse
I loved the way he showed a new dimension in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II), striking the front much, much earlier than usual -- some 4 1/2 furlongs from home, to be exact -- before turning back a strong late bid from the eventual runner-up to win by three-quarters of a length. This versatile colt is for real. The only question now is which race will be his final Derby prep race. I feel that the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) could be an excellent option, seeing that this colt did win the Grey Stakes (gr. III) over the Woodbine Polytrack as a juvenile.
18. Liaison (Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) Trained by Bob Baffert
An experiment with removing blinkers in the San Felipe Stakes perhaps didn't go quite as planned, for the usually speedy colt found himself dead last after the opening half mile. He never threatened for victory, but he ran well enough to finish fourth, and I'm going to give him one more chance to try and re-prove himself before tossing him out of Derby consideration.
19. Our Entourage (Street Cry - Sand Springs, by Dynaformer) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Owned by Repole Stables of Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty fame, the promising colt won a turf allowance race February 25th in terrific fashion and is currently pointing toward a start in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) in April, where he will get a chance to prove himself as a serious Derby contender.
20. Paynter (Awesome Again - Tizso, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by Bob Baffert
Talk about a colt joining the Derby trail at a late date! This highly promising colt broke his maiden on February 18th in highly impressive fashion, coasting to a 4 1/4 length victory going 5-1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita in what remains his only start to date. However, it was announced recently that he is pointing toward the Illinois Derby (gr. III) in April, a victory in which could potentially launch him en route to the Kentucky Derby. There's no denying that he has talent, but no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby off of just two races. It would be an amazing feat if he even makes the Derby starting gate!
Other Notable Contenders
Adirondack King
Battle Hardened
Brother Francis
Cigar Street
Done Talking
Ever So Lucky
Exothermic
Golden Ticket
Heavy Breathing
Holy Candy
Longview Drive
Mank
Midnight Crooner
Motor City
Mr. Prankster
Najjaar
Paynter
Prospective
Reckless Jerry
Rousing Sermon
Scatman
Secret Circle
Shared Property
Stirred Up
Z Dager
-Keelerman
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